Twins Notes

The Cisco Kid has resumed throwing activities, making it through a 50 toss outing from 90 feet with another one on the horizon that will stretch him out to 120 feet. I do not really know what any of this means, but it seems good that he is throwing and not hurting at the same time. Getting Liriano back in the rotation would obviously be a tremendous help, and would cascade to the rest of the pitching staff. Radke’s workload needs to be limited- is it any surprise that he left after two innings on Friday after a particularly laborious start last weekend? And erratic performances by the rest of the rookie starters have strained the bullpen, which needs to stay in good shape if the team wants to finish strong in the regular season and beyond. To that end, Matt Guerrier’s return should not be understated; his 14 IP makes up nearly two full games that Radke, Reyes, Crain, Rincon, and others did not have to pitch. He does not strike out a huge number of batters, but he is a Twins pitcher, so he is a control freak, walking only two in those 14 IP and not allowing a single homerun. Factor in a GB/FB ratio consistently better than 3:2 and you have a very useful swingman on your hands. That is what Guerrier has quietly become for the Twins. His value has been enhanced by several circumstances, such as the ineffectiveness of Lohse and Silva, the poor health of Liriano and Radke, and the extra workload put on the bullpen. Getting Liriano back would take some of the pressure off of that bullpen, but until then, be thankful that it has been so effective.

By the way, who makes the standards for rehab processes? I do not doubt that knowledgeable medical professionals are doing their best work, but who says that 120 feet is the magic number? Why does he throw 25 throws instead of 28 or 19? I think the larger point here is that there is still a tremendous amount we do not know about the workings of the human body, and may never know. Since so much of medical theory is postulation rather than deductive and quantifiable truth, take medical reports with a grain of salt. Maybe Liriano will be back in early-mid September, or maybe he will suffer an unforeseen setback. Anybody pretending to know the answer is dead wrong; the estimated return is just as precise as the 120 feet or the 50 throws.

Until Liriano is healthy enough to return, do not expect any meaningful changes to the roster. The potential September call-ups will not inspire or elate any Twins fans. Josh Rabe will probably be back, which should not mean much to anyone outside his immediate family. Chris Heintz’s name comes up frequently, probably too frequently for an everyday player who cannot crack a .700 OPS at AAA. He has to be considered a prospect, playing fairly well in the IL in his age 21 season, though he has little to contribute that the Twins are not already getting out of their top two backstops. Moreover, nobody on the AAA roster hits for any real power, which is the one area the bench could really improve. Bringing Rondell White back from the DL exhausts their potential for adding a bit of pop to the lineup or the reserves, and even that move is more of a reshuffling of the deck chairs than real improvement, as would be adding Terry Tiffee to the four-corners mix. Maybe bringing back Gassner or Baker to mop up some innings will accomplish the aforementioned bullpen rest, but the pitching moves do not have much more potential than that. All in all, the September roster expansion has happened over the course of the season for the Twins, as they have replaced several starters with players who started the year in AAA, like Bartlett, Bonser, and Neshek.

Updating a previous article I wrote on playoff odds, the Twins are up to a roughly even money bet to win the AL Wild Card, as Boston continues to fade and Chicago struggles with all teams who do not have the best record in the league. Perhaps more encouraging is the fact that the team has moved up considerably in its chances of winning the division outright. The Tigers still have an 83% chance of holding on in the Central, but they have the best record in baseball and only the third best chance of winning the division. The Twins have moved up beyond 10% within the division, meaning they should not be dismissed as a divisional contender- their odds are better than the cumulative probability of the Red Sox to make the playoffs by hook or by crook. Only a half game back in the standings, the White Sox swoon has dropped them to 39% for the playoffs and only 5% for the division, even though they have the same number of wins as the Twins. One interesting note is the projected total number of wins from the simulation on which the playoff odds are based. The Tigers average 99.7 wins per season in the simulation and the Twins come out with 94.2, though the average for the division winner is 100.7, meaning the difference has to come from an occasional 100+ win season from the Twins or the Sox. Finishing 25-10 seems unlikely, but the simulations say that it is a non-zero probability, and the Twins have done more than a few surprising things this season.

Twins Notes

The Cisco Kid has resumed throwing activities, making it through a 50 toss outing from 90 feet with another one on the horizon that will stretch him out to 120 feet. I do not really know what any of this means, but it seems good that he is throwing and not hurting at the same time. Getting Liriano back in the rotation would obviously be a tremendous help, and would cascade to the rest of the pitching staff. Radke’s workload needs to be limited- is it any surprise that he left after two innings on Friday after a particularly laborious start last weekend? And erratic performances by the rest of the rookie starters have strained the bullpen, which needs to stay in good shape if the team wants to finish strong in the regular season and beyond. To that end, Matt Guerrier’s return should not be understated; his 14 IP makes up nearly two full games that Radke, Reyes, Crain, Rincon, and others did not have to pitch. He does not strike out a huge number of batters, but he is a Twins pitcher, so he is a control freak, walking only two in those 14 IP and not allowing a single homerun. Factor in a GB/FB ratio consistently better than 3:2 and you have a very useful swingman on your hands. That is what Guerrier has quietly become for the Twins. His value has been enhanced by several circumstances, such as the ineffectiveness of Lohse and Silva, the poor health of Liriano and Radke, and the extra workload put on the bullpen. Getting Liriano back would take some of the pressure off of that bullpen, but until then, be thankful that it has been so effective.

By the way, who makes the standards for rehab processes? I do not doubt that knowledgeable medical professionals are doing their best work, but who says that 120 feet is the magic number? Why does he throw 25 throws instead of 28 or 19? I think the larger point here is that there is still a tremendous amount we do not know about the workings of the human body, and may never know. Since so much of medical theory is postulation rather than deductive and quantifiable truth, take medical reports with a grain of salt. Maybe Liriano will be back in early-mid September, or maybe he will suffer an unforeseen setback. Anybody pretending to know the answer is dead wrong; the estimated return is just as precise as the 120 feet or the 50 throws.

Until Liriano is healthy enough to return, do not expect any meaningful changes to the roster. The potential September call-ups will not inspire or elate any Twins fans. Josh Rabe will probably be back, which should not mean much to anyone outside his immediate family. Chris Heintz’s name comes up frequently, probably too frequently for an everyday player who cannot crack a .700 OPS at AAA. He has to be considered a prospect, playing fairly well in the IL in his age 21 season, though he has little to contribute that the Twins are not already getting out of their top two backstops. Moreover, nobody on the AAA roster hits for any real power, which is the one area the bench could really improve. Bringing Rondell White back from the DL exhausts their potential for adding a bit of pop to the lineup or the reserves, and even that move is more of a reshuffling of the deck chairs than real improvement, as would be adding Terry Tiffee to the four-corners mix. Maybe bringing back Gassner or Baker to mop up some innings will accomplish the aforementioned bullpen rest, but the pitching moves do not have much more potential than that. All in all, the September roster expansion has happened over the course of the season for the Twins, as they have replaced several starters with players who started the year in AAA, like Bartlett, Bonser, and Neshek.

Updating a previous article I wrote on playoff odds, the Twins are up to a roughly even money bet to win the AL Wild Card, as Boston continues to fade and Chicago struggles with all teams who do not have the best record in the league. Perhaps more encouraging is the fact that the team has moved up considerably in its chances of winning the division outright. The Tigers still have an 83% chance of holding on in the Central, but they have the best record in baseball and only the third best chance of winning the division. The Twins have moved up beyond 10% within the division, meaning they should not be dismissed as a divisional contender- their odds are better than the cumulative probability of the Red Sox to make the playoffs by hook or by crook. Only a half game back in the standings, the White Sox swoon has dropped them to 39% for the playoffs and only 5% for the division, even though they have the same number of wins as the Twins. One interesting note is the projected total number of wins from the simulation on which the playoff odds are based. The Tigers average 99.7 wins per season in the simulation and the Twins come out with 94.2, though the average for the division winner is 100.7, meaning the difference has to come from an occasional 100+ win season from the Twins or the Sox. Finishing 25-10 seems unlikely, but the simulations say that it is a non-zero probability, and the Twins have done more than a few surprising things this season.

Sizing Up the Competition

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Taking that maxim to be true, the Twins count both the White Sox and Tigers as enemies and friends, and time-space grasps tenuously to regain its logical ordering of the universe. Think about the possibilities for a minute and we will move on. Ready? Ok. After game one of another big Chicago-Detroit series, the Tigers look to be in some sort of control of the division, extending their lead to 6.5 games over the Pale Hoes and 7 over the Twins. To put that deficit into perspective, with a little over a month to go, Detroit has the same lead in the division as the Yankees, who have already bought the champagne and started counting down their magic number after this most recent Boston Massacre. The difference, of course, is that great intangible that we call momentum. Whereas the Yankees can revel in their own glory and probably take the division with .500 ball the rest of the way, the Tigers have struggled recently, dropping three of four against Texas over the weekend and playing dust to Chicago’s broom the weekend before. Chicago and Minnesota, on the other hand, have been riding high despite shortcomings, and continue to push hard for the last playoff spot. Ultimately, Boston’s demise (which may or may not have already happened- there is a lot of baseball to play, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re done for the purpose of this investigation) leaves the Twins with the charge of finishing ahead of either Detroit or Chicago, and while they have less ground to cover in chasing Chicago, Detroit has recently looked like the decidedly weaker team.

Statistically, the Twins are already in a favorable position, according to Baseball Prospectus’s Adjusted Standings, which goes beyond the simple Pythagorean adjustments to account for individual player contributions and the results that they should yield. According to that adjustment, the Twins should be 70-53, a full two games ahead of the White Sox, at 68-55. Detroit maintains their lead, though by a smaller margin, at 74-50, putting the Twins a reachable 3.5 games behind the division lead. All three teams have outperformed their run differentials and component stats, not an unusual feat for a team with a winning record. The Tigers and White Sox, though, are both 4.7 wins ahead of their projected pace, while the Twins performance leaves only 2.2 wins up to unexplained variance. The meaning of that difference is that the Twins true performance has been closer to their record than that of either Detroit or Chicago, a reality which hints at progress to come. Minnesota has been able to make up that ground by playing at an increasingly high level. As I noted recently, the run differential may not look particularly striking, but the differential for this iteration of the Twins- the one that does not include Tony Batista, Juan Castro, or Rondell White’s corpse- has overcome a profoundly negative differential to become competitive with the other teams in the division over an abbreviated season. In other words, the Twins may only be even with Chicago now, but the lineup including Bartlett, Punto, etc, has been significantly better in the standings and in terms of runs since it became the everyday lineup. The implications for the playoffs are that the Twins have finally passed Chicago in terms of overall probability of making the playoffs, 47.1%-45.5%. Those numbers and that miniscule difference mean very little practically, but they reflect the Twins’ growing momentum as they continue beating good teams. Interestingly, the White Sox still maintain a statistical edge in their odds of winning the division crown, and the Twins make up the difference with a greater chance of winning the wild card. Those modestly different odds come from the 1/8 chance (12.5%) that Detroit will indeed tank and lose out on the division title. Even if that is the case, do not rule them out, as their strong season to date gives them a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs in one way or another, better than even the Yankees’ 95.8% chance.

What performance trends make up these differences? The White Sox series over the weekend gave a glimpse into the team’s strengths and weaknesses, highlighting how different they are from last year’s World Champions. The mantra about the pitchers’ diminished effectiveness from putting more balls in play and allowing more homeruns has been beaten to death, so I will leave it alone. The team’s defense is strong enough to rank 8^th in the majors in defensive efficiency, which is no surprise given the personnel and Ozzie’s tendency to play a glove over a bat at nearly any position. The offense is a major force, checking in three runs behind the Yankees at second in the majors, but the prevention side has not held up its end of the bargain. The team’s 601 runs allowed is 111 Detroit’s league-leading pace, ranking them 7^th in the AL- not so shabby, but inconceivable for such a strong pitching-and-defense team. By the way, the fact that a team has a disappointing pitching staff, ranks in the middle of the pack at run prevention, absolutely drops bombs on offense, has a solid chance at 95 wins or more, and is considered a disappointment with a good shot at finishing 3^rd in its division speaks to the tremendous depth of this year’s AL Central. For every time we count ourselves as unlucky for cheering for one of the combatants, we must remember to also count ourselves as lucky for being a part of such a memorable race. I almost hope the Red Sox really are done, just so the media focus appropriately turns to this fantastic division.

The team that has really made the wheels go round in the division has obviously been the surprising Tigers. Some have developed concerns recently, as the team has scuffled through a tough week after losing Placido Polanco, who was among the team leaders in the “intangibles” statistic, to a shoulder separation. In lieu of Polanco, the front office showed that it may not be quite so bulletproof as we all thought by actually giving up something for the burden of having to play Neifi Perez for the rest of this year and all of next. Simultaneously, Justin Verlander lost a couple of starts, and, more importantly, showed noticeable changes in his mechanics, delivery, pitch selection, and stuff as his arm seemed to hit the wall that jumps out at young pitchers adjusting to longer seasons. Verlander is not easily replaceable, not even with Mike Maroth getting closer to coming off of the DL. Then, in one shining moment, everything seemed to turn around on Monday night, with Verlander getting ground balls and working seven effective innings for the Tigers, who finally overcame Jose Contreras and the terrifying White Sox, 7-1. Two bad weeks seemed to wash away, piece by piece, as Craig Monroe hit a 2-run homer, Sean Casey doubled home two more, and Verlander kept plugging along, putting holes in Sock after Sock. Keep in mind that one night does not a season make, and neither does two weeks. The Tigers have been struggling because they have been playing good teams. It appears that they tore a page out of the 2002-2004 Minnesota playbook on how to win the AL Central, through beating the pulp out of the bad teams and treading water against the good ones. So far this year, the Tigers are 36 games over .500 in games against AL teams below .500 and NL teams, and two games under .500 against AL teams with winning records. Of course, they have played a role in making some of those teams into sub-.500 teams, especially Cleveland, who they have clobbered 12-4 in the season series. More relevant is the fact that these numbers explain why the last two weeks seemed so bad: Texas, Chicago, and pre-Chernobyl Boston were very worthy competitors, and losing a majority of the games should not be considered the end of the season. Certainly, there are relevant concerns here for Tigers fans, but let’s look at the bigger picture: this team has been very good for almost 5 months; two bad weeks is not a better indicator of future success.

Finally, not one of the Central competitors has a great advantage in the schedule down the stretch. The teams will take heavy doses of one another for the next month, exactly the way the schedulers wanted it to be down the stretch. The principle vagary here is the fact that nobody expected Detroit’s last two weeks to matter much, so they are stuck playing perpetual also-rans Baltimore, Kansas City, and Toronto (whose situation gets worse and worse with another player-manager fight coming to light today), while the Twins and White Sox duke it out in their high-profile meeting the last weekend of the season. If anyone has the advantage here, it is Detroit, but that is mainly because they got the job down all year and do not face pressure to make up ground against the best teams- they must only continue to keep their heads above water.

Altogether, Detroit still seems like a formidable opponent going into the season’s last month. The Twins shot at the postseason has not been better all year, but the point of entry will probably come at the expense of Chicago rather than Detroit. Losing Verlander would drastically reshape the landscape in the division. Until he stops pitching, though, any such speculation is pretty fruitless. It seems that the division will most likely turn on the complex relationship between Minnesota’s ability to manage injuries and Chicago’s ability to outscore their opponents as a means of overcoming a suboptimal pitching staff. The team that accepts its shortcomings and properly addresses them will be in a better position to make the post-season. Minnesota’s success in recent weeks at cycling retreads and youngsters through the lineup to get the most value possible out of them indicates that they are dealing with their injuries as proactively as possible. Now, the White Sox have to find a way to get out of the doldrums by rallying around their big bats for one more run. That motivational speech is Ozzie’s responsibility, and the ball is now in his court.

Naming Rights and Naming Wrongs

Cynics often point out the increasingly corporate nature of professional sports in general, jesting that players will soon sell uniform space to corporate advertisers to milk every last dollar out of the great American cash cow. Will Ferrell took on the subject pretty directly in the recent Talladega Nights, putting a graphic on the windshield of his car and selling advertisements during his family’s dinner prayer. My own greatest corporate pet peeve in the sports world is the way that college football bowl games have gone from having unique and quirky names to horribly meaningless ones: aesthetically speaking, the Citrus, Peach, and Copper Bowls are much more appealing than the GMAC, Capital One, and MPC Computers Bowls. A few extra scholarships? Pish posh. And while baseball maintains tradition better than most sports, owners frequently face criticism for selling the naming rights of stadiums. I have always questioned the soundness of an investment in stadium naming rights; I know Comerica, Ameriquest, and Safeco quite well as names without really knowing what any of these companies does. Something with money, I would guess. In the meantime, roughly half of baseball’s stadiums have remained unblemished by the corporation-y corporations doing all of their corporate business. Why have some of the stadiums sold out (in the less desirable sense) while others have stayed true to their original nomenclature? That is exactly what I am here to investigate, and I will do so by grouping the traditional names into a few categories.

The Traditionalists

Fenway Park- John Henry’s ownership group has done a fantastic job of preserving the Red Sox heritage, playing up the historical mysticism and renovating Fenway as much as possible while some called for a new structure to replace it. The Citgo sign is about as corporate as the stadium gets, and the team’s burgeoning nationwide fan base ensures that there will be plenty of revenue to support a swelling payroll. Thus, the stadium’s name will continue to reflect the old nickname of the neighborhood in which it was built: “The Fens.”

Yankee Stadium- Not much explanation needed for this one; Yankee stadium is another one that does not need a corporate name to make money. I sometimes wonder if the Yankees had an identity complex when they moved into the Stadium after sharing the Polo Grounds and not finding much success. The only open question is how the new stadium will be named when it opens in a few years. I would guess that Steinbrenner has a big enough ego, or enough sense of history, to go with something along the lines of New Yankee Stadium.

Wrigley Field- Wrigley is arguably more tradition-laden than either of the previous two parks, boasting the history of all of the day games, the seventh inning stretch, and the ivy. It is striking to notice that a team with such a long and memorable history has only had four players with retired numbers: Ernie Banks, Ryne Sandberg, Billy Williams, and Ron Santo. The conspicuous lack of heroes could indicate high standards, but it also seems to hint at the team’s failure. As etched in stone as the name may seem, Wrigely Field started out as Weeghman Park before being sold to William Wrigley and renamed in 1926.

Dodger Stadium- The Dodgers played in another Wrigley Field immediately after moving to the west coast. The origin of the name is easy to guess, and it is an appropriately proud and classy name for a classy franchise in their SoCal oasis.

The Memorials

Jacobs Field- It took the Jacobs brothers six years after buying the team to get public funding for a new stadium in 1990, helping to set the stage for future publicly funded stadiums. They get the distinction of having their names on the park forever. Unfortunately, it replaces one of the great stadium nicknames in the game: “the Mistake by the Lake,” for old Cleveland Municipal Stadium, which also won bonus points for playing itself in the movie Major League.

Kauffman Stadium- Ewing Kauffman owned the expansion Royals and got the naming rights that may have belonged to Charlie Finley if he did not mimic the California gold rush with his A’s, for whom the stadium was originally approved. Kauffman persists as a great park because it has always been a baseball stadium, bucking the trend of multi-purpose stadiums through the ‘60s and ‘70s.

Shea Stadium- While most stadiums named after an important person take their owners’ names, Shea took the name of the lawyer who helped bring NL baseball back to New York. Like Yankee Stadium, it will be interesting to see if the name is honored in any capacity once the new stadium comes to town.

Turner Field- Yup, Ted Turner, Turner Field. Not much distinction here, other than the fact that the stadium hosted the Olympics, and that it is the only park named after an apocalyptic nut paranoid about nuclear proliferation.

The Defiant Few

Oriole Park at Camden Yards- Camden does not refer to an owner or an important person in Baltimore history. Instead, Camden is the train station near the stadium and the name of the neighborhood surrounding the sports complex, which fits the stadium, since it is as open and closely related to the area as any stadium I have seen other than Wrigley.

Angel Stadium- In one of the biggest gifts to his fans an owner has given in recent memory that had nothing to do with on-field performance, Arte Moreno chose not to extend the naming rights of Edison International Field after the deal expired following the 2003 season. As far as I can find, Angel Stadium is the only park to go from a corporate to a non-corporate name.

The Undesirables

Dolphins Stadium- The Marlins play second fiddle to the Dolphins in south Florida, and nothing makes that reality more apparent than the stadium situation. If you have not seen the bleachers, they are all orange, the only color the Dolphins wear that they do not share with the Marlins’ color scheme. The team does not want to play in that stadium, and they have not tried to make the best of the situation; it will probably only get worse.

H.H.H. Metrodome- I suppose the Triple-H part could be considered a memorial name, but nobody uses that part anyway, defaulting to the more space-age Metrodome. I never really understood why Carl Pohlad or someone else did not try to sell naming rights to the stadium when money was never in abundance. I doubt the dual-sport nature of the facility plays into the scheme, since the San Diego teams agreed to indulge Qualcomm, and Candlestick became 3-Com while the Giants and 49ers still shared the facility. More interesting is the speculation about the name of the new stadium. I doubt anyone in the state would consent to letting Pohlad put his name on the edifice, the current name could never carry over, and there is no obvious champion in the legislative process who deserves the honor. It sounds like an ideal situation for corporate naming, maybe from a Minnesota-based company like Best Buy or 3M. I’m not giving up hope for a Jesse Ventura Field.

RFK Stadium- The Nationals came to town long after RFK had been named, and even after it had seemingly seen its usefulness pass by. The name comes from the sentimentality over the fall of Camelot around the time of the construction and has become something of an historical oddity. No other pro-sports stadium is named for a person with so little to do with the franchise.

Notes:

-There is hardly a common thread running through these examples, although I will venture to guess that the traditionalists are the most likely to remain unchanged. I also suspect that there will always be some stadiums named after owners or influential people in the franchise, but the particular teams with that distinction could change over the decades.

-In all of sports, my least favorite name has to be the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Quicken Loans Arena, which inspired forced nicknames dealing with the letter Q that were neither catchy nor intimidating. At the other end of the spectrum, my very favorite stadium name is Michigan’s “The Big House,” even though it is not the official title. I believe its ubiquity compensates for its lack of authenticity, and it meets every conceivably legitimate criterion for a cool stadium name.

-Some teams try to blend together a traditional name with a sponsor name, but the half-way business is less than the sum of its parts. McAfee Coliseum? What a hoax. On the other hand, a few sponsorships seem so natural and inoffensive that they actually appeal to me more than some non-corporate names. Examples: Miller Park, Coors Field. I swear it is not a brewery thing, but I would consider Busch Stadium, too.

-Finally, if there was any lack of clarity, the Rogers Centre in Toronto is not named for a kind benefactor, nor for Fred Rogers, but for Rogers Communications, who actually bought the whole stadium for 1/3 of what Ameriquest paid for 30 years of naming the Ballpark in Arlington ($75 mil-$25 mil). Also, the patriotically themed Great American Ballpark is not a send up to heroic fire-fighters or soldiers dying in war, but the name of an insurance company who plays on those same nationalistic feelings. Very tricky.

A Case of Mistaken Identity

In the midst of a vintage Johan Santana outing on Tuesday night, the Metrodome fans started a cheer that has escaped Minnesota baseball fans for almost two decades. “M-V-P! M-V-P!” Save for the Timerwolves diehards, it would not be surprising if some fans could not properly recall the acronym. “M-V-P! M-V-P!” Minnesota’s Vengeful Politicians? Not unless Mark Dayton had reason to venture home for the exciting Cleveland series on a non-campaign stop. Minneapolis Veal Parmigiana? As far as I know, Norwegians do not specialize in Italian cooking, unless that Italian cooking includes lye-cured fish (Lutefisk a la vodka? Redundant, no?). “M-V-P! M-V-P!” I’m talking about the caliber of player the likes of which has not been seen ‘round these parts since Sheriff Puckett holstered his pistols and his extremely large bat, riding his old pony out to the Arizona desert in some horribly ill-fitting chaps- spare yourself the visualization. To play in Minnesota is to fly perpetually under the radar, for better or worse. It is easy to imagine the benefits of the limited attention/badgering/harassment from the media and others, such as the unnecessarily high expectations and constant scrutiny. On the other hand, if one makes it his charge to collect hardware from this nation’s great sportswriters, he may find himself disappointed by forces outside of his control. Garnett exemplifies this problematic conundrum, having played at the highest level in the league year after year, but snatching the MVP from Tim Duncan’s quite warm and live hands only after adding the flamboyantly outspoken duo of Spree and Sam I Am to do his talking off the court while his game did the rest on it. Even Johan Santana faced ambivalence from the press for most of 2004 before winning his last zillion starts in a row to pull away from Curt Schilling, who had clear advantages in geography and hemophilia. Even after establishing himself, he lost out on the next Cy Young after having the best season in the league, and Bartolo Colon never even bled himself on TV, as far as I know.

So with history working against us, Twins fans, we embark on an uphill climb for recognition in 2006- Recognition ’06, kinda catchy. But before we come down with an acute case of Lieberman-itis, let’s make sure we are all on the same page, because those noble desperados under the baggy that night were either badly delayed in their chant, or have completely missed one of the all-time great seasons by a Minnesota Twin. For all the great power hitters in baseball history, the Twins lineage is peppered with Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Kirby Puckett, and even Chuck Knoblauch more recently than their last world-class masher, Harmon Killebrew. In that respect, thirty homeruns are nice, even historic, but they do not get Justin Morneau in the door when it comes to MVP consideration. I know as well as anyone that the term “counting stats” refers as much to their cumulative nature as to how much they matter in the eyes of the BBWAA, but that does not mean that a 30-100, or even a 40-120 season deserve automatic MVP consideration over a stat line demonstrative of lower testosterone levels. No, Justin Morneau is not a deserving MVP candidate; I say the chant came with a delay because Joe Mauer is the deserving MVP candidate as things stand right now in the American League.

First, let us run through a cursory comparison of the numbers. Mauer has impressed everyone with his batting prowess, continuing on the track to become the first full-time catcher to ever lead both major leagues in batting average in a season at .361/.441/.522. Morneau has shown more power down in the lineup, hitting a very impressive .318/.370/.593. Those numbers may not looks so different, since Mauer’s OPS of .963 matches Morneau’s on the nose. Factor in Morneau’s impressive, nay, revolutionary 30 homeruns and 103 RBI, and it may seem that his offensive contributions dwarf Mauer’s. After all, for all the talk of Mauer’s on-base proficiency, Morneau has scored more runs than him, 67-62, and Mauer’s power numbers look downright Lilliputian by comparison- 10 HRs, 64 RBI. The mistake is to stop the analysis there, seeing only Morneau’s apparent advantage in a few very notable categories. A better analysis looks at what those numbers mean for the team. First, Morneau’s greatest advantages are in HRs and RBIs; what, precisely, do those stats mean for the team? Obviously, a homerun is incredibly valuable, and takes all of the power out of the defense’s hands. It is easiest to hit a homerun when a pitcher is tired from throwing many pitches and may make a mistake, or when there are runners on base distracting the pitcher. The same is true for RBI, only more so- the stat is wholly reliant on opportunity. If Morneau does not bat with runners on base, he does not accumulate a gaudy RBI total. Mauer’s most notable advantage comes from his remarkably high OBP, which means three things for the team. First, it reflects Mauer’s ability to draw walks, making pitchers throw more pitches and tire more quickly. Second, it shows that Mauer uses less outs than almost any other full time player, setting himself up to score and driving in others, not only through singles and walks, but also with his 39 extra base hits. Finally, it makes for run scoring opportunities by extending innings. Even if Mauer’s run total is not as high as it could be, it is still very high for a catcher who does not play 162 games. More importantly, his out avoidance gives other players a chance to score and knock in runs. Every time Luis Castillo gets on base, Mauer walks, and Morneau eventually drives Castillo in, Mauer gets little to know credit in the stat line for providing that invaluable bridge. Even more generally, his on-base skills give Morneau more plate appearances, giving him more chances to hit 30 HRs. It is no coincidence that the low-OBP teams of the Tom Kelly era did not hit as many circuit clouts: not only did they lack power, they also lacked the chances to hit them. Mauer gives his teammates those chances, which makes everyone around him better.

OPS, therefore, is something of a misleading statistic. It correctly identifies on-base percentage and slugging percentage as the two most important everyday stats when it comes to predicting run production. On the other hand, simply lumping the two together is an ungraceful move signifying a lack of prescience. Without OBP, SLG loses much of its value because it removes the opportunity (the at bats where a player gets to demonstrate his power) and the payoff (the base runners cashed in by depositing one in the bleachers). Typically, I look to stats that take this difference into account, such as EQA or VORP from Baseball Prospectus. Mauer’s OBP advantage plays out to a 54.7-40.4 lead in VORP, good for nearly 1.5 wins on the offensive end. The difference in EQA is equally stark, where Mauer holds a .330-.313 lead over Morneau.

All of this discussion, and not a word about defense. For all of the misconceptions about the value of different offensive statistics, so little is known about defensive statistics, that less explanation is possible. Suffice to say that where Mauer has played a premium and irreplaceable defensive position at an exceptional level for his entire pro career, Morneau has had to make massive strides to become a respectable defender at the opposite end of the defensive spectrum. In other words, Mauer does something extremely well that almost no one else could do, while Morneau does something acceptably well that almost any other Major Leauger could do. Considering the offensive advantage that Mauer holds in the most important categories, Morneau would have to blow him out of the water defensively, and their positions make that almost impossible. If Morneau was Keith Hernandez in the field and Mauer was Mike Piazza, the race would be closer. As it stands, factoring in defense for an overall contribution, Mauer has been more than two wins better than Morneau, 9.8-7.4, according to WARP3.

I feel dirty having berated Morneau for several paragraphs. It would be one thing if he was repeating his 2005 statistics, or had traded bats with Juan Castro immediately before the Cincinnati trade in some Freaky Friday sort of skill transfer. But that is not the case. Morneau has been one of the ten best players in the American League this year, and he has done a lot of things that grab the attention of important baseball people. Batting average, homeruns, RBI: he’s the 1980s and before total package. Unfortunately for him, we now know better, and we can identify one of his teammates as the very best in the league. Morneau is very good. Mauer is transcendent. Barring a meltdown, I say we start giving him the hardware before the SI jinx sets in and his knees go out. And as long as we’re singing the Twins’ praises, we might as well be singing the same song. Sing it with me now, “J-O-E, M-V-P!”

Twins Notes

With a wireless router in place and mlb.tv back on my mind, it is time to gear up for a feverish pennant race, especially for the two Wild Cards. Unfortunately, the Twins chose this time to get ice cold at the plate, losing three straight to Toronto while totaling one run in the series, and dropping four of their last six, only winning two one-run games that could have broken the other way. Looking outside of the bubble, it does not help that the rest of the AL contenders have been having good weeks, and have gained substantial ground during the Twins offensive swoon. I recently fingered Luis Castillo as part of the problem, but he has not been the worst culprit of late, going 14 for his last 32 in the last week. With only one XBH (a triple), it is an empty average, but I will take an empty .438 any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Torii Hunter has homered just once since returning form the DL, and since power is at the center of his repertoire, his whole line has suffered to the tune of a .306 OBP. And while getting hit by pitches, like he did painfully tonight against Brandon League of the Blue Jays, is one way to make runs instead of outs, nearly breaking bones in his hand is not the ideal situation. Also, the dramatic home run off of Zumaya aside, the red hot Justin Morneau has cooled this week, hitting only .207/.281/.483. The .483 slugging, we will take, the overall Rob Deer-esque batting line… not so much. And with the magic dust starting to rub off of Tyner and Rabe (.637 and .200 OPS for the week, respectively), it is no wonder the Twins have struggled to score runs, and have lost several games. It would be easy to blame the loss of Francisco Liriano, almost too easy. Instead, shift your attention to the batter’s box for a moment and notice that the miserable offensive performance against the Blue Jays is symptomatic of a recent cold spell by some of the hitters who made the team so hot after the All-Star Break.

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Speaking of Liriano, it is hard to find a silver lining in the black cloud hanging over the Twins season of late, but remember that the reason he is so exciting is not primarily that he helped get the team back into contention in a loaded AL Central this year; it is because he pairs with Johan Santana to give the team an instantly viable power rotation to go with young hitters like Mauer and Morneau for several years to come, making several more years of contention a realistic goal. My initial reaction to Liriano’s elbow stiffness was actually one of relief, as I assumed the Twins had decided to skip him to put a cap on his work load, a la the Tigers recent handling of their own phenom, Justin Verlander. Unfortunately, the diagnosis was not so simple, and continues to confuse as MRIs one and two did not conclusively indicate Liriano’s exact problem. The most recent reports say that he has a strained UCL, the tendon infamous for Tommy John surgery, though a strain is not enough to merit the full blown ligament replacement. As part of a related, cascading injury, Liriano has experienced some forearm stiffness related to altered mechanics in his shoulder that compensate for his sore elbow. Getting him some rest now, even if it means giving up on him (and possibly the team, by extension) for the rest of the season, is worth it for the next four or five years when Liriano promises to be cheap and great in the Minnesota rotation. The more vexing issue, of course, is the potentiality that Liriano has only begun to have serious arm problems that will continue into the future. Since his arm problem compares most closely to Victor Zambrano and Brandon Webb, you can see that there is a clear continuum from abject pessimism to a more rosy prognosis. Liriano is better than Zambrano to start, but that will not matter if he, like Zambrano, spends month after month on the shelf with elbow problems. On the other hand, Webb recovered cleanly and has been the best pitcher in his league this season. The front office does not determine body chemistry or pain tolerance, but I still commend the Twins for their cautious treatment of their star so far, and hope that it continues.

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The Twins completed one small move last week that made some sense without receiving much press. Mike Redmond inked a two-year extension with a club option for 2009 to remain Joe Mauer’s backup and insurance policy, and perhaps cement himself as the club’s best backup no. 3 hitter. Redmond came out of the gates on fire this year, hitting over .400 for the first month of the season, and he has kept up a very impressive.349 batting average in 126 plate appearances. The strong plate discipline he showed as a younger player in Florida- 26 BBs in 273 PAs in 1999- has dried up into a single unintentional walk. Still, a backup catcher with a .900 OPS is a healthy bit of usefulness. At 35, Redmond is at the age when most starting catcher either start or complete a pretty rapid performance decline, but Redmond’s workload does not approach that of a Jason Varkitek or a Mike Piazza with no season over 85 games behind the plate. Like many other older career backup catchers, such as Greg Zaun, Redmond should be able to continue his level of production for a couple more years, and with the third option year, the Twins have some security in case he does hit a wall. With the state of catchers in the system ready to ascend, Redmond’s extension makes more sense, because Chris Heintz is next on the list at .280/.321/.380 for Rochester, and no free agent is likely to come along with the combination of affordability and passability that Redmond gives the Twins when they rest the gem of the franchise. Altogether, a solid decision.

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One other recent move that flew under the radar was the addition of Erubial Durazo to the Rochester Red Wing roster. Durazo missed time with Oakland last year, lost out on the Texas DH job to Phil Nevin in spring training due to a persistent WBC injury, then spent time in the Yankees’ system before trying to find some major league playing time. The Twins already have a lefty-heavy lineup, so there is not a lot of room for an immobile player who has to DH and duplicates other skills. However, if they can squeeze him on the roster after the September expansion, he could provide some much needed DH help against righty pitchers. He knows how to get on base, walking his way to a .400 OBP in 17 games at Rochester, and every indication is that he would help the team more than Josh Rabe or Jason Tyner in a DH capacity for a few games here or there. He will not be the difference between the postseason and third place, of course, but he could make a small, positive difference down the stretch.

Good Luis/Bad Luis

Today marks the one week anniversary of my entrance into data purgatory. I have not entered the realm of internet hell, still finding enough random wireless hotspots to occasionally check my e-mail, get sports scores- you know, the essentials. On the other hand, I have not participated in the internet activities that have made the web such an appealing place: no consistent internet means no mlb.tv, not enough access to information to read or write anything worthwhile about the Twins, and infrequent fantasy baseball updates, resulting in a miserable 10-1 drubbing last week. It only gets better from here, as the promise of a wireless router has brightened my future substantially. I am aware that my lament treads on dangerously thin ice, the above ground being the safe world of the sports blog, supported by the fatally frigid waters beneath which represent the archetypal emotive blog written and frequented by pock-marked Ben and Jerry’s fanatics with nothing better to do. I have something better to do, so I vow to waste no more time on non-baseball news:

Before coming to the Twins, Luis Castillo established himself as a consistently above-average middle infielder, both with the bat and the glove. Age and injuries had taken a small toll on him, sapping a bit of his batting average and base stealing prowess. Additionally, he was feeble enough with the stick to never slug above .400, and his lack of RBIs- flawed as the stat may be- once prodigiously hinted at his stunning lack of power. Still, as one of the first players shipped out in the Fish Fire Sale v2.0, it seemed like Castillo came to the Twins as something of a bargain: a short-term contract for a high-OBP guy with a good glove that could function as an above-average free agent signing, where the team gives up a couple of promising but redundant middle relief talents. As it has turned out, Castillo has challenged the ’05 edition of Shannon Stewart for the title of most horrendous Twins leadoff hitter in very recent memory.

Indeed, second base was a weak point for the Twins for several years, and the lack of public ire against Castillo, coupled with his public status as a team leader, prevents him from facing the same type of criticism as those whose corpses paved his way. Take, for example, the other Luis Whose Name Shall Not Be Spoken. As a fledgling “prospect” who received most of the playing time in the division title run from 2002-2004, young Luis never topped a .308 OBP, but at least posted solid ISO (SLG-BA) numbers, culminating in a respectable .176 ISO in 2004, only his age 24 season. Castillo’s ISO this year is a meager .087, although those numbers do not paint the whole picture. Castillo’s OBP is still .342, respectable for a bottom-feeding hitter, but not for a leadoff man who lacks any power.

Altogether, Castillo’s offensive contribution comes out to a paltry .243 EQA, a rating which standardizes offensive contributions to one round number scaled like a regular batting average. In his last full season as a second baseman, that other Luis posted a strikingly similar .242 EQA. Defense, you say? Old Luis loses there too, posting a defensive rate of 92 (8 runs below average for every 100 games) to a 98 for young Luis in 2004. Combined, 2006’s Luis Castillo has gone from a 5.6-6.9 win player, in terms of WARP- every year from 2002-2005, to being worth only 3.1 wins all of this year. Luis R-R-Rivas even managed a 4.2 WARP in his age 24 season. I do not mean to say that the Twins would be better off if they had kept Luis Rivas to play second base every day; settling for mediocrity is generally a mistake. From another angle, this performance is hardly what they expected to get out of Luis Castillo. Perhaps the warning signs were there- he has always relied on his speed, but injuries have diminished that skill in recent seasons, and speedy players are susceptible to a rapid decline when they lose that one skill. Additionally, everyone in the organization knew that Castillo would face difficulty transitioning to a turf field for the first time in his major league career. Certainly, no one anticipated just how bad his defense would be early in the season (and I will be the first to admit that it has improved markedly in the last couple of months), nor would they guess that age 30 would be some magical number that would cause him to post a career low in OBP. No matter how short the commitment, Castillo has not earned his $5 million this year, especially for a team that cannot afford to throw millions of dollars around for dependably below-average performance.

Imagine, for a moment, a Twins lineup without the Castillo trade ever taking place. Nick Punto would presumably remain at second, getting some value out of his surprising on-base skills. The actual replacement would come at third base, where either Rodriguez or Tiffee would have assumed Castillo’s playing time. Tiffee would probably approximate Castillo’s offensive value, sadly enough, but with less to offer with the glove. Rodriguez may be the better option, bringing with him a little less at the plate (a terrible .237 EQA), but remarkably good fielding stats across the diamond. The contributions of Travis Bowyer would be an improvement this year over Will Eyre’s terrible mop-up work, albeit in very low leverage situations, but the team would probably be at a point of equilibrium in terms of run scoring and prevention. Finally, recall the $5 million opportunity cost of employing Castillo, and all of the different ways that money could have been spent- most usefully on a better 3B alternative than Tony Batista. Joe Randa is not the sexiest name to take to prom, but his .259 EQA would play a lot nicer along side Nick Punto than Luis Castillo’s .243.

Or, the money could have been spent on starting pitching depth, a situation which grows more dire by the day. I will chip in on the loss of Liriano in the near future, but for now, keep in mind that one problem which many thought had been solved has really just been a reshuffling of the deck chairs.

Deadline Dealings

It is only early August, but the effects of Monday’s trade deadline have already started to change the results of games, and teams’ prospects for the postseason. Jumping the gun to declare winners and losers is the type of inappropriate calculation that makes sports analysis seem excessively prospective. As a writer, I see a difference between discussing the most likely effects of a trade in the near future and forecasting exactly how it will play out for the next several years. For instance, it may have looked like the Twins got nothing in return for Doug Mientkiewicz or J.C. Romero in acquiring Justin Jones and Alexi Casilla, but the simple truth is that we just do not know. Condemning or praising trades based on prospects or the promise of future payroll flexibility are very difficult to score for the time being. However, the possibility remains to see which teams gained or lost the most right now, or which teams did not capitalize on their assets, which is precisely what I will attempt to do today: catalogue some of the deadline’s winners and losers in terms we can actually see and evaluate in the not-so-distant future.

Winners

New York Yankees- As you may recall, I recently ranked the Yankees a hair ahead of the Red Sox, reasoning that the additions they stood to gain from the DL outweighed Boston’s narrow divisional lead. In the short time that has elapsed since, the Yankees have already caught the Sox in the division, but have also made a much more significant addition to an already dangerous lineup. Bobby Abreu may not have the luster that he had a few seasons ago, or even after last year’s Home Run Derby, though he remains an on-base machine who makes a huge upgrade over Melky Cabrera, Bernie Williams, or whomever else would have been making outs in his place. Their lesser pickups fill similarly deep holes. Cory Lidle makes a much better starting pitcher than Shawn Chacon, and Craig Wilson gives the team a serviceable backup at a few positions where they previously had none. After two or three years of teams seeking his services, Wilson fetched the Pirates only Shawn Chacon, a terrible pitcher basking in the glow of two good months in pinstripes. Altogether, the Yankees addressed two big needs with acceptable replacements while adding the top available player at a position of less need, though with a very positive impact.

Texas Rangers- Of course I will praise a team for making a trade that I told them to make just a few weeks ago. In the article I wrote on sensible deadline deals, I noted that the Rangers rotation has been better than expected. Still, there remained the issues of depth and luck: depth in that Koronka and Rheinecker are already further down the line than the team may have wanted to go, and luck in that they have actually been pretty good. Jon Daniels is not taking any chances, getting the off season’s bounty finally in the rotation in the form of Adam Eaton, and collecting Kip Wells from Pittsburgh for very little. If he pans out, he may make them an easy winner in the division, and if he does not pan out, the team has lost little. The same goes for the Carlos Lee trade, widely praised elsewhere for the last week. Lee may be a rental, but he comes to them cheaply, costing only three major leaguers who were not going to get the team into the playoffs this year or any other. Mench is a nice enough piece, though Lee is a clear upgrade using the same plate appearances without costing much in terms of opportunity. Even Matt Stairs fits the same M.O.: not a tremendous upgrade, but a clear one who comes at little cost. I believed before that the Rangers would win the division, and Jon Daniels’s moves have made me believe more firmly in him and in the team.

Losers

Washington Nationals- The Nats are 16.5 games out of the NL East lead and 12 games under .500. Jim Bowden made a wise move in flipping a few spare relievers for an upgrade at SS and RF for this year and the next few, but even his Cincinnati heist could not make up for utter neglect on the 31st. That deficit in the playoff race means that he should not be hoarding this year’s goodies when the next years’ spoils are to be had. ESPN ran a story on how much Bowden loves the attention when his managerial hyperactivity becomes the focal point of the league, though he managed to make that feast into one terrific dry heave. Alfonso Soriano notably remained with the team when several pretty good offers passed by that certainly would have helped the team for the next few years. As Joe Sheehan noted on August 1, turning down Jason Kubel and Scott Baker for Alfonso Soriano is not just rejecting two solid prospects, it means turning down two solid prospects and $36 million- the likely financial difference between the two alternatives over the next four years. Tony Armas, Livan Hernandez, and others do not mean as much individually, but even a few mid-level prospects would mean more for the team by the time it is ready to contend than any of the current cast of characters. For once, Bowden found a way not to pull the trigger on a transaction. Unfortunately, it was at the time when he absolutely had to make a deal.

A Little from Column A, A Little from Column B

Oakland A’s- Holding Zito would make more sense if they wanted to contend this year, but standing pat at the deadline indicates that Beane did not see a deal or series of deals that would have put the team on the same level as the Rangers. On the other hand, if Zito was only going to return one prospect- Lastings Milledge- perhaps it would be worth it to let him walk, take the two compensation picks, and hope that better health from the current roster gets them into the playoffs.

Detroit Tigers- Everyone knows what Sean Casey will provide, a high batting average and little else at a prime offensive position. Still, Dave Dombrowski deserves credit for recognizing that Chris Shelton’s hot April was doing nothing for the team the rest of the way, and acting to fix the problem before it worsened. Nonetheless, just like the 2001 Seattle Mariners, these Tigers are not likely to repeat their tremendous success next year, and should make every effort to capitalize on the wins they already have by adding an impact player like Soriano who could help make a hot streak into a pennant.

Philadelphia Phillies- Getting almost nothing in return for Abreu, one of the top players in the game with a skill set that typically ages pretty well, is disheartening. Building around Howard, Hamels, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Bourn, and Madson remains pretty tasty, but they better spend Abreu’s opportunity cost well, or it will be a total lost.