TWIT: The Distant Future

Weekly Roundup

Haven’t we been here before? Last week, the Twins suffered a miserably disappointing sweep, followed by a pretty solid series where they took two out of three from a better team. This week, well, the Twins suffered a miserably disappointing sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays, and followed it up by taking two out of three from a better Cleveland team. According to the BP playoff odds report, the Twins’ odds of getting into the post-season sweepstakes are down to just 7%, only seventh best in the American league, and well behind the other six contenders ahead of them.

Once again, the road to a subpar week was paved by an inability to score runs during the workweek. Last week, the Twins managed a total of five runs in their three losses to the Tigers. This week, they scored- guess what- five runs in their three losses to the Jays. In some ways, this series was even more pathetic, as the Jays don’t sport one of the hottest starting rotations in the majors, and they fell victim to the indignity of being completely shut down by Dustin McGowan. The Twins pitching was not outstanding, either. Santana got lit up like a Christmas tree his first time out, giving up gopher ball after gopher ball. Carlos Silva struggled in giving up six runs over 5.1 innings, and the situation got worse when Dennys Reyes and Juan Rincon tried to relieve him, but combined to face six batters and let every one of them score without recording an out. Altogether, there were almost no positives in the Toronto series. Minnesota’s weaknesses showed up all at once, crowding out their relative strengths.

The Cleveland series was quite a bit better. It started slowly with a Boof Bonser shellacking, a game which contributed to Ramon Ortiz piling up 5.1 innings for the week- something that doesn’t happen when things are going well. As the weekend went on, though, the Twins starting hitting a little, catching some breaks, and pitching extremely well. Santana looked like vintage second-half Johan on Saturday, teasing at a no-hitter, but settling for 12 strikeouts and five baserunners through seven innings. Matt Garza looked even better on Sunday, where he went nose to nose with potential Cy Young favorite C.C. Sabathia. Sure, the Twins are out of the race, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still cheer, and a weekend series like this one is a good way to feel good about a team that needs an unrealistic hot streak to contend again this year.

Biggest Success

Justin Morneau had another strong week, blasting two homers, driving in seven runs, hitting .409, and somehow not drawing a single walk, even without much support behind him in the lineup (Hunter hit .143 for the week). Jason Tyner mashed his first major league homerun even though I remember drafting him way back in the first fantasy baseball draft of my life.

My pick for biggest success of the week is going to Matt Garza this week. He has been absolutely revelatory for the Twins in the last few starts after looking a little rough around the edges the first couple of starts after his recall. Is it possible that he resented staying in AAA so much that he was dogging it all year? The 3.62 ERA and 95 K’s in 92 IP hint otherwise, but he was much better last year, and insisted he was uncomfortable pitching the way the team wanted him to pitch in the minors. What is more likely is that his experience throwing his curveball more often in AAA is starting to catch on, giving him the lights out pitch that baffled Cleveland on Sunday. He did a great job getting ahead of hitters, and was able to throw a nasty breaking ball that torpedoed out of the strike zone to record 11 strikeouts in six innings. With Boof Bonser, Garza makes two Twins starters who get by on an excellent curve, but they use the pitch differently. Bonser throws his for a strike, but it sometimes flattens out and gets hit hard. Garza has yet to learn how to throw his yacker for a strike consistently, meaning it works as a strikeout pitch, but hitters can sit on the fastball early in the count. If I had to choose, I would take Garza’s setup- it has worked well enough for K-Rod’s slider over the years- and his command should improve as he continues throwing it. If his peak is what we’ve seen his last three or four starts, I’ll take that, too.

Biggest Disappointment

Did anyone else notice that Matt Lecroy is hitting .193/.277/.260 at AAA? That’s pretty disappointing to me. I’m just piling it on now; there’s not much reason to look for more disappointments after a week like this one. The real culprits were the major league hitters who couldn’t get over the Mendoza line for the week. Lew Ford (.111), Jeff Cirillo (.125), Jason Bartlett (.125), Torii Hunter (.143), Jason Kubel (.158), and Nick Punto (.200) all played at least three games and flat out didn’t hit. While the offense’s problem for most of the year has been an inability to hit anything other than singles, even a few singles would have been appreciated this week. With that sort of production, averaging 2.7 runs per game is ugly, but it is not wholly unexpected. If you want to blame someone for the Twins hovering around .500 with the collection of frontline talent that they have, blame Terry Ryan for settling on Jeff Cirillo, Nick Punto, Jason Tyner, and Rondell White as long term solutions in the lineup.

On the Horizon

The Twins have just completed the first three of 20 games in 20 days, a long stretch like they had leading up to the All-Star break that taxes the pitching and requires more than simple push-button managing. I have said repeatedly that this area is one where I fully trust Ron Gardenhire to handle the team correctly; his bullpen management optimizes individual talent without overburdening one or two pitchers. The only concern I have over this stretch is that he will be pressed toward trying to win the division, even though the goal is probably unrealistic, and may continue to use Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier on back to back days when the risk is unnecessary. It is not a huge concern, but it is something to watch over the next two weeks.

The schedule itself brings the Twins an eight game home stand against the Royals and the Indians. With the way the Twins played against Cleveland this weekend, there’s real hope that next week’s column will have a more upbeat tone than this one. The Royals have played fairly well since the All-Star break, most recently sweeping Texas, but they’re still the Royals, and after Gil Meche on Monday, they the exceedingly mortal Jorge De La Rosa, Brian Bannister, and Odalis Perez to the mound. I’m going to pretend that De La Rosa didn’t already dominate the Twins once this year, and I’m also going to pretend that Kansas City’s trade deadline sell-off will distract the team enough to cripple their focus and confidence.

In the Cleveland series, the most interesting match-up will be in the first game, where Sabathia will get a rematch with Matt Garza, this time on Garza’s (literal) turf.

The Big Picture

Once Tuesday passes and the trade rumors dissipate, it will be time to stop worrying about the big picture for a while and to start enjoying the game of baseball itself. It’s late summer, the team is healthy, and they’re playing every day for the next two and a half weeks. My advice is to sit back and enjoy the majesty of ball and bat.

I’m sorry, I don’t usually engage in that sort of silly baseball mysticism, but I feel like I need to construct a fallback for a team without great hopes of a playoff run. Truthfully, there are lots of reasons to continue enjoying the Twins this year. Santana may be starting a run of excellent starts, Garza and Baker have looked very solid recently, and Justin Morneau could make a run at 40 homeruns. Plus, if you’re into gambling, you can bet on which infielder will catch Rondell White’s popup each time he bats.

In the meantime, the trade deadline still packs some punch. I recently wrote about why I think the Twins should not trade Torii Hunter, since there is just not enough time to work out the right deal. I also know that the team has more or less taken Luis Castillo off of the market, but I would at least shop him around to see if there’s any team that will give up more value that is closer to the major leagues (perhaps an outfielder?) than the two draft picks he will bring back by leaving as a free agent. With the current market for pitching, Juan Rincon and Carlos Silva should also be on the block, just to see if they can set themselves up better for next year by dealing them for prospects who are close to the majors. Plus, it’s possible that the team would be better off with Cameron Cali and Kevin Slowey playing at this point anyway. So even though the Twins are in a holding pattern of non-contention, there are plenty of intriguing story lines to follow, and lots of baseball left to enjoy.

The Torii Hunter Dilemma

The common thread running through the Twins solid decade has been Torii Hunter more than anyone else. Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire have obviously been instrumental in putting together a competitive team despite a roster with a high rate of turnover. Until this year, Brad Radke was the elder statesman, playing through pain and leading by example on the pitching staff. Nonetheless, Hunter’s charisma, ability, and outspoken nature made him the most visible Twin for most of his contract. Even today, with a two time Cy Young winner (Santana), an all-American batting champ (Mauer), one of the best closers in baseball (Nathan), and the reigning AL MVP (Morneau), Hunter remains arguably the most widely recognizable player on the team. As such, it is no surprise that Hunter’s impending free agency looms like a giant fork in the road above the front office as the 2007 pennant race slides out of their grasp. It is difficult to make a judgment on what to do with Hunter in terms of statistics, chemistry, and public relations. In this space, I will examine a few of the advantages and drawbacks of different courses of action.

Keep Hunter for the year, try to re-sign him

Keeping Hunter makes for a good public relations move in two different respects. First, it helps signal that the team seeks to remain competitive throughout 2007, which certainly packs more fans into the stadium than an implicit concession. Additionally, a good faith effort at retaining Hunter would probably reflect well on an owner whose major problem is frugality, at least in the court of public opinion. Even though Carl Pohlad has always found the money to re-up his top level free agents- including Puckett, Knoblauch, Radke, Hunter, Santana, and Mauer- he will undoubtedly face some degree of public backlash for letting Hunter walk.

But that does not answer the real question. Would the Twins be wise to retain Hunter? Even though his physical prime has come and gone, I believe that Hunter is exactly the type of player who will age well. His elite athleticism will help him keep some value afield, and he can survive at the plate without too many walks or an extremely high batting average. His worst offensive season as a full time regular came in 2003 when he managed to hit only .250, but still produced an OPS+ of 97 due to his good power. Combined with strong defense at a premium position, Hunter forecasts to be a solid player even as he ages. Using PECOTA projections, Baseball Prospectus pegs Hunter for a solid big league regular through at least 2010, maintaining a weighted mean EQA above .270 through 2011. If he can keep his defense above average, that sort of player definitely has some value, nearly $10 million per year, according to PECOTA. With the Twins’ dearth of minor league position players, one could make a case that the opportunity cost of losing Hunter is so great next year, and would carry over so much into 2010 (the ETA of the new ballpark), that he is worth the extra money he would require to retain him. Without power or on-base skills, Denard Span has fizzled, and Ben Revere looks like Span-lite. Hunter may mean more to the Twins than to any other team.

Keep Hunter for the year, let him walk

Of course, the first two possibilities are largely indistinguishable, especially if Hunter’s market price goes through the roof. Just how much will Hunter make in the open market? That’s an excellent question, and will likely have a lot to do with what the Twins resolve to do. On one hand, Ichiro’s new $90 mil+ extension makes Hunter look completely unsignable. But the Mariners made the Ichiro deal to keep the Japanese market, an advantage Hunter does not bring, and because his unique skill set seems to position him well for the aging process. If nothing else, Hunter’s contract is unlikely to be as long as Ichiro’s, even if a bidding war mushrooms his salary about $15 mil per year.

Another issue to consider is the recent collapse of Johnny Damon, another elite CF who had a career year at age 31 before becoming a free agent. Inevitably, detractors will invoke Damon’s fate when trying to depress Hunter’s salary, pointing out that his all-out defensive style wore him down to the point that too many singles turned into outs and Damon turned into a pumpkin. One important difference between the two is that Hunter has been more consistent for most of his career. He has slugged between .450 and .550 every year since age 25, a skill Damon was not able to fall back upon. Also, Hunter’s aforementioned 97 OPS+ season in 2003 was the only time he dipped below 100. Damon’s reliance on his batting average instead of power made him more subject to fluctuations, giving him some seasons better than what Hunter has ever done with the bat, but also four seasons below 100 OPS+, one as low as 85. In other words, considering both offense and defense, Damon had had distinctly average seasons before becoming a free agent. Hunter has never done that. Damon needs to hit at least .280 to be above average, while Hunter’s power has allowed him to have four seasons below .280 with an OPS+ above 100. With Damon’s higher peak, Hunter may not have more perceived value, but he is likely to remain a better player longer than Damon, unless one of his homerun saving grabs rips his shoulder out of socket.

Damon entered the free agent market with Carlos Beltran, giving teams options and decreasing the likelihood of an all out bidding war. Hunter enters the market alongside the slumping Andruw Jones, and the slightly less desirable lot of Eric Byrnes, Kenny Lofton, and Mike Cameron. Without much talk of a longer deal, Damon signed for four years and $52 million. Adjusting for inflation and the current market, I suspect Hunter will get something in the neighborhood of five years and $75 million. A team truly desperate for a right handed power hitter who can play a strong centerfield may try to increase the yearly value at the expense of the length, perhaps offer $64 million over 4 years. Either way, I think Hunter will come up short of earning that money by about $10-15 million worth of market value, not a hideous sum, but one that the Twins cannot afford given the necessity to extend whoever they can out of the group of Santana, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Nathan.

Letting Hunter walk, of course, comes with the side benefit of two draft picks so long as the team offers him arbitration. If he signs with a team in the top half of the league in wins, it will be a first rounder. Otherwise, it will be a second rounder, and a sandwich pick between rounds one and two will be part of the deal either way. In that light, Hunter signing with a bad team like the Rangers would cost the Twins about 15 spots in the draft order versus losing him to the Yankees or Red Sox. With the Twins recent history of drafting position players, those picks may be frustrating failures, but they have value nonetheless, and have to be taken into account when deciding his fate.

Try to trade Hunter now

Going into this weekend’s Cleveland series, the Twins picked a terrible time to slump their way out of playoff contention. If they remained within five games of the playoffs, it would be worthwhile for Terry Ryan to pursue offensive upgrades at third base and DH. If they were clearly out of the race two weeks ago- as they are now- they could have put Hunter on the trading block, along with Luis Castillo, Carlos Silva, and Juan Rincon. Without giving other teams time to bid against each other, there is not enough of a market on Hunter to get a proper return, nor is their enough time to work out the details of a deal on a player who may require a window of time to negotiate an extension before the trade could be made.

One possible suitor could have been Damon’s Yankees, who need a right handed bat and could use Hunter’s outfield defense to go with the eroding range on their corners. While Hunter would not be enough to nab elite pitching prospects like Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, but paired with a bullpen arm like Rincon, he could probably return one of the secondary pitching prospects like Alan Horne along with an outfield prospect like Jose Tabata or Brent Gardner. Neither would fill the centerfield void, which is why I have also advocated for the Twins to pursue other trades for centerfield prospects all year. A player like Michael Bourn would help the Twins a little this year by filling in LF while Kubel plays more at DH, and would be able to slide into CF next year, solving a big quagmire on the cheap. An offer of Carlos Silva and a minor league reliever might be enough to get that done.

In any case, I do not believe that trading Hunter would net the Twins more value than the two draft picks they would get for losing him as a free agent. If Ryan had built up a market for Hunter the way Jon Daniels has done with Mark Teixeira, the scales might have tipped slightly. As the timing has worked out, Ryan was too close to contention to start offering Hunter at the appropriate time, so he cannot be faulted for his course of action. Thus, letting Hunter walk has more value to the Twins than trying to trade him in a rushed package.

Conclusion

If Hunter is going to cost $15 million per year, the Twins quite simply cannot afford to keep him. I do not mean that the Twins could never dedicate that much money to one player, but with extensions for so many players on the docket, Hunter’s value does not fit into the equation. Keeping Santana for $18-20 million per year with some money deferred would make lots of sense for the team. Giving Morneau $12-15 million per year might not even break the bank if they are willing to let Nathan walk at the end of 2008, leaving Pat Neshek at the back of the bullpen. As the oldest member of that group, Hunter has the greatest potential for regression, and is the least likely to help the team in 2010. Even though it will once again make Carl Pohlad look like a malevolent cheapskate, it is time to thank Hunter for the good times he’s had, and to let the face of the franchise walk away.

TWIT: Fork

Weekly Roundup

Fork. In one way, the Twins stand at a fork in the road. Fox’s uber-rumor guru Ken Rosenthal jumped on the Adam Dunn to the Twins bandwagon yesterday, mostly because it makes a ton of sense if the team has an interest in building toward a possible post-season run. A fork in the road because the Twins have reopened the Johan Santana negotiations, reportedly with an interest in deferring some of the money. Ichiro and Mark Buehrle have recently signed new contracts, each offering some good news for Twins fans hoping to retain Santana, Ichiro because his deferred contract could make it easier for the Twins to spread out the dollars over the long term to offer a contract closer to market value, and Buehrle because he’s a top of the rotation lefty in a competitive market, and he signed below market. This year’s trading deadline is at very least a fork in the road for this season, whether they can compete for the playoffs as well, and even effects what team will take the field on opening day 2010, under the stars rather than a sheet.

Fork. In another way, there is a fork sticking out of the Twins’ collective back. After dropping three in a row to the Tigers, the Twins were looking up a 9 game embankment to the top of the division, and sit 8 back of the division, 7 back of the Wild Card. The roster that the Twins have put on the field so far this year has done enough to convince me that they will not make the playoffs with huge holes at third base and DH and an average rotation that cannot do enough to compensate for the offensive mediocrities. Even if you hold the belief that Cleveland will stop outperforming their run differential by 3-4 games and that the difference between them and the Twins is more like two or three wins going forward, you have to be concerned that the Twins have slipped behind the Yankees. Nobody in their right mind would look at the offense that piled 45 runs on Tampa over three games and a rotation that will soon include Clemens, Pettitte, Mussina, Wang, and Hughes, and still believe that the Twins can overtake them down the stretch. Even though the Twins were swept at home by the Tigers in three one-run games, it was enough to effectively crush their postseason chances without any major changes.

Biggest Success

For what it is worth, the Twins played two of the hottest teams in the American league and were only blown out of one game all week. The pitching staff is rounding into form, albeit a couple of months later than necessary, and has reached the precipice of compensating for the Nick Puntos and Jason Tyners of the world. Still, five runs over three home games is not going to get it done. Matt Garza does not deserve to go 12.1 innings, giving up only 14 total base runners and 3 earned runs, while still suffering two losses for his record (bizarre Slowey?). The bullpen gave up only four runs in 14 innings of work, the only non-quality start of the week was a victory (6.2 IP, 4 ER for Silva), and the team still went 2-4.

The offense deserve pretty much all of the blame for a bad week. But that’s not to say the lineup was devoid of bright spots, even against the top two starting rotations in the league. In particular, Jason Kubel led the team in BA/OBP/SLG and was second in total bases despite having a day off. I get the distinct feeling that Kubel has turned a corner and will remain at least a serviceable major league regular until injury or age derails him. He might never become the batting title competitor that he projected to be before his knee injury, but he can provide league average on base skills and above average gap power, making him at least a playable LF, something the Twins have not had for the last year and a half. Although he is somewhat streaky, I believe that Kubel will be good for at least .260/.330/.470 for the rest of the year and next, meaning that LF is not the dire straits that it was earlier in the season. Finding someone to pair with him to alternate fielding and DH’ing would still make all kinds of sense considering his injury history and the team’s gaping wound in the DH spot.

Biggest Disappointment

Everyone knows that the middle of the Twins lineup needs to produce for the team to be successful. Without offensive fireworks from Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, and Cuddyer, all of the seeing eye singles and first to thirds in the world won’t get them to a .500 record. With sprained ligaments sidelining Cuddyer for at least two weeks (hopefully a minimum DL stint, which would have him back the first week in August), the Twins have even less margin for error. Not only does the middle of the lineup have to be even stronger, their fringe players have to offer some sort of resistance to opposing pitching.

For the week, the team did not fare well without Cuddyer. Mauer, Morneau, and Hunter filled in his stead by having slightly below average weeks for all three. None of the three were abjectly terrible, but the top OBP was merely .333, and nobody slugged over .500 or hit more than a single home run. The reinforcements were even worse. Darnell McDonald’s line looks like one of the old Timberwolves box scores where Stojko Vrankovic would have minutes played followed by a whole mess of zeroes. McDonald accumulated 9 plate appearances with zero singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, runs, RBIs, or steals. Not the best way to ingratiate oneself to a new team. The rest of the marginal players- Jones, Cirillo, Ford, Redmond, Tyner, Rodriguez- had a total of five hits in 38 at bats (.131). Nobody expects them to be world beaters, but they have to hit better than a pitcher.

On the Horizon

I mentioned the difficult forthcoming opponents last week, but Toronto has mercifully remained stagnant, slipping two games beneath .500 to give some sort of psychological respite to the team between four other series against playoff contenders. In the opener, Shaun Marcum will go for the Jays, hoping to continue his success as a starter, but even his revelatory season will have a tough time measuring up the second-half Johan Santana for the Twins. Baker and McGowan in the second game features two young starters who have started coming around as of late, and the series finale will see two guys who struggle more and more as the game goes on in Silva and Jesse Litsch. Between missing Halladay and getting Santana twice in the week, the schedule worked out nicely for this random selection of six games. Against Cleveland, the Twins will probably get Sabathia, but with Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook in the first two games, it could be much worse.

The Big Picture

For me, the big picture starts to extend beyond the current season at a time like this. With that in mind, let’s take stock of what the Twins have to do going forward. Ultimately I believe that the Twins will find a way to sign Johan Santana to an extension, like Kirby Puckett and Brad Radke before him. Carl Pohlad may be cheap, but he is a good businessman and he knows how popular Santana has become in Minnesota. Considering that he is willing to take less money to re-sign and that the team has already broken tradition to negotiate with him in the season, and all indicators are going the right way. Mauer is already signed below market value beyond the end of his arbitration years, and Morneau’s long-term deal will likely be the next issue to tackle.

That leaves Torii Hunter and Joe Nathan as possible cost cutting victims at the end of this season and next, respectively. With the organization’s ability to develop cheap and reliable relief pitchers, including Hawkins, Romero, Guardado, Rincon, Neshek, and Guerrier, I don’t mind skimping a bit on the bullpen budget. Nathan could make eight figures on the open market, and a mid-market team has no business paying a closer that much money unless he is undeniable the face of the franchise (Trevor Hoffman). Losing Hunter could be a bit dicey. The Twins have not done a good job of developing outfielders since Hunter and Jones came along, with only Kubel to show for their efforts, and Cuddyer switching out of the infield to fill the need. Guys like Eric Byners, Kenny Lofton, and Mike Cameron will be available in the off season as cheaper alternatives, but those approaches do not solve the problem for 2010, the year the Twins are supposed to target to make a big run in a new park. It is too early to start wrangling for the 2009 free agent class, but the Twins are rarely big players in that market anyway, which is why I have continually suggested that they try to make a play for a minor league CF prospect who is within a year or two of becoming a regular. With their surplus of pitching and the relative over-valuing of starters in the current market, I believe a deal could be reached. If they were willing to take a chance on a borderline character, Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes would come cheaply, although those are risky propositions. One way or another, I see CF as the biggest challenge going forward for next year and beyond.

TWIT: Hooray

Weekly Roundup

Four games, four quality starts, four close wins. That recipe yields success under just about any circumstances, and when the offense shows some limited signs of life at the same time, you end up with a sweep of a quality opponent. Even though the Twins outscored the A’s by a total of eight runs over four games, they pulled their home record from a disappointing 22-20 to a more reasonable 26-20, simultaneously reasserting their position as a borderline contender. The formula was relatively unchanged for each of the four wins: the starting pitchers gave up a total of three runs in the first five innings of all of the games, giving the offense a chance to get ahead. In fact, the only real damage done to any of the four starters came against Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva in the seventh innings of their respective starts. The offense managed only one homeruns for the shortened week, but an astounding five triples for the week helped to offset the lack of power. It is unreasonable to believe that the Twins can continue winning games without hitting homeruns, and the pitching rotation has spent a whole season demonstrating why they will not put up 100% quality starts. Nonetheless, this week’s games were extremely helpful in the standings and in the psyche of the organization. It gives Terry Ryan a reason to aggressively pursue a missing piece- hopefully a real DH/LF to go with Kubel not named Rondell- and it keeps the pressure on the teams at the top of the division, who have shown a propensity to crack over the last two seasons.

Before moving on, I wanted to comment on Garrett Jones, who has really impressed me in his limited action so far. I’m not trying to draw big conclusions from his 2-7 start with a double and a walk- I’m more concerned with his approach at the plate. His minor league statistical profile made it look like he might have difficulty adjusting to good major league pitching that could actually make him swing and miss with some consistency. He got by in the minors by swinging often and hitting the ball hard, keeping up a so-so batting average with plenty of power, but not many walks. Many hitters have followed the same path, then seen their contact rate dip so low in the majors that the power alone cannot sustain such a miserable OBP. So far, Jones has shown a willingness to work the count and wait for a good pitch. On Sunday, he churned out a walk in a 7 pitch plate appearance, fouling off a 3-2 pitch on the outside corner before reaching base on the next pitch at the letters. It also seems as though he is relatively comfortable with fastballs and breaking balls, as he has made contact on both. While mistake hitters can have value, I’d take an all-around hitter who could develop any day. I’m not expecting Jones to be a superstar, or even a starter, but if he can catch enough fly balls to keep his spot as the team’s best lefty pinch hitter.

Biggest Success

Mike Cuddyer absolutely ripped his way out of a mediocre last month by going 7-13 in the Oakland series, showing lots of benefit from his extra rest. With three extra base hits and two walks, Cuddyer managed to put together an absolutely phenomenal line of .538/.563/.846. Continued mashing by Cuddyer takes some of the stress off of the bottom of the order, as run production counts at the margins no matter who starts it.

To me, the player who was even more impressive than Cuddyer was Luis Castillo, someone who I have lambasted repeatedly for his inability to hit for any power. Even Bert Blyleven got in on the act this week, pointing out that Castillo had only 11 extra base hits out of 94 total hits on the year after his first triple of the week. But Castillo didn’t stop there, he hit a double and another triple before the series ended, meaning he matched 30% of his XBH count for the season in one weekend. The 11 total bases matched Cuddyer for the team lead, and he also scored and drove in three runs, walked three times, and kept up his stellar ability to avoid strikeouts altogether. Hard as I have been on Luis Castillo in the past, this sort of hitting erases all of that criticism and helps the team win ballgames.

Biggest Disappointment

I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth, as a perfect week is a perfect week. There were a couple of minor blips on the radar during the week, but nothing worthy of being a “biggest disappointment.” I was impressed by the fact that Jones, Tyner, Cirillo, and Redmond combined to go 10-22, each adding one extra base hit. Their contributions more than made up for a bad weekend from Jason Kubel, who was hitless in 10 plate appearances.

Reyes also looked a little shaky, not giving up any earned runs, but allowing two inherited runners to score on Saturday after throwing Mark Kotsay a dead hanger on the only pitch he threw that day. He also walked three for the week while only retiring five. Depending on the needs of the rotation, Perkins may be a better situational option than Reyes down the stretch, at least once he makes it all the way back to full health.

Lastly, Rincon continued making the case for Guerrier and Neshek in high leverage situations, coming in to close out Johan Santana’s Friday gem with a five run lead, then promptly giving up three earned runs, hitting a batter, an serving up a homer before Joe Nathan had to come in to put out the fire. I keep saying, bust out he MRI for this guy before he does any more damage to the team or himself.

On the Horizon

As I said last week, the Twins are in the midst of their toughest home stand of the year, and maybe the most important one. After a day off Monday, they host the Tigers and the Angels for three games apiece, both teams leading their divisions and both teams playing quite well at the moment, especially in the starting rotations.

The Tigers will send Robertson, Miller, and Bonderman in the three games, giving the Twins a chance to prove themselves against lefty pitching. Bonderman has given them trouble lately, but then again, at 10-1, he’s giving the whole league trouble. In his last start against the Twins, he went eight shutout innings, striking out seven, so Scott Baker will have his work cut out for him in what Twins fans must hope will become a pitchers’ duel. If it is any consolation, Bonderman is actually 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA for his career against the Twins, but a lot of the damage came when he was too young for the majors and the Tigers were too bad for the majors.

If rotations hold, the Angels will send Lackey, Weaver, and Colon for the weekend. Lackey has been solid all year, keeping his name among the league leaders in wins, but his ERA has been a shade below his peripherals from the outset, so some regression is likely. Whether that will manifest itself in this one game is another matter beyond my powers of prognostication. Weaver has been good since returning from a short DL sting, and Colon keeps winning games, even though he keeps giving up runs. Part of the credit for the starters’ good records comes from the excellent bullpen, where Shields, K-Rod, Speier and others have made a habit of slamming the door. The Twins will have to scratch out runs early and pitch well to win the series. If they do, it could be an extremely entertaining brand of baseball.

The Big Picture

A four game sweep means that the Twins are playing pretty well. Unfortunately for them, most of the other AL contenders who matter to Minnesota are also playing well. Boston has slumped a bit of late, and Oakland is obviously sliding, but Seattle continues to win games, New York is looking better and better, and the AL Central leaders have yet to show any signs of backing down. For the Twins to make the playoffs, they have to catch either Cleveland or Detroit, who alternately hold 5-7 game leads on the Twins, but the also have to pass Seattle (currently 2.5 games up), and hold off New York. The Yankees, in particular, could make quite a run as their pitching staff rounds into form with a fully ready Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang, and Phil Hughes. The offense is not what many thought it was, but with Jeter and A-Rod performing as they have, they will score plenty of runs to support that pitching staff. Look out for them over the next couple of months, and keep an eye on their box scores while you wait for Cleveland or Detroit to slip, as the Yankees might be there to swoop in for the Wild Card berth.

TWIT: Going round in circles

Weekly Roundup

For two games this week, the Twins averaged 16 runs. Over the course of the other six games of the week, they averaged 2.8 runs per game. Friday’s fireworks aside, the Twins squandered the opportunity to make real gains against some of their prime competitors over the last two weeks, leaving themselves right where they have been all season long. Tim Kurkjian and Orel Hershieser summarized it well on Baseball Tonight, ranking the Twins fifth in the American league. That position is respectable, but without any major changes to the roster, is there any chance that they pass Cleveland or Detroit? Even in an era of watered down playoffs, finishing third in one’s own division amounts to a lost season. Just ask the 2006 Chicago White Sox, a 90 win team the appears headed for a fire sale a year later because 90 wins doesn’t always cut it in a division as tough as today’s AL Central. For the Twins, 90 wins remains a troublesome goal, as the would have to go 45-31 in the second half to reach that benchmark of playoff contention.

Nonetheless, a lot of interesting things happened this week. After two walkovers opened the New York series on a sour note, Johan made it clear that he has entered his Cy Young mode for the season, surrendering only 4 hits over seven innings to one of the more dangerous lineups in the league. The very next day, the Twins came back from a 5-2 deficit to tie the game at 5 for 5 innings until Hideki Matsui hit a dramatic two-run homer off of Pat Neshek. The plot thickened in the ninth, when Mariano Rivera could not slam the door, giving up one run and leaving the tying run on base as the game ended. Factoring in Torii’s freak out in the second game, the intrigue of any series at the Stadium, and the fact that it happened over the 4^th of July, and the series was actually quite entertaining, even though the Twins were hopeless in two of the games.

As for the Chicago series, anyone who has watched the team all year was waiting for the other shoe to drop after Friday’s explosion. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take all of the 20 and 12 run games I can get, but it never seemed like a genuine offensive explosion. To me, it looked like Ozzie was more than willing to throw batting practice once it became apparent that each game was out of reach, artificially enhancing the run totals. His discretion proved the better part of valor, as the pitching staff had enough left after the double header to hold the Twins to 4 runs over the next two games. After Friday’s romp, a series split was almost inconceivable. As it turned out, the Twins enter the break with a losing streak, a seven game hill to climb to the playoffs, and very little momentum.

Biggest Success

A lot of players can fit into this category. If we excluded Friday from the calculations, very few players would fit into this category. Friday counts, albeit more so in the run differential column than the wins and losses, so the double header heroes have to get their due. Jason Kubel’s continued improvement netted him a .318/.370/.591 line with two homers and ten RBIs (Kubel is hitting .269/.329/.463 for the last month, so don’t blame the offensive woes on him). Joe Mauer got on base 16 times in 34 plate appearances. Luis Castillo hit .364. Torii Hunter slugged .643. Even Jason Bartlett, with a rough week at .229/.289/.286 managed to cross the plate 9 out of the 11 times he reached base. For all of these relative successes, I expect no one to argue with the selection of Justin Morneau as player of the week.

Morneau started the week in a homerun slump that lasted for nearly two full weeks. He came out of it with a .438/.471/.875 line, aided in no small part to the fact that he started his personal homerun derby four days early. While a 25 point dip in his batting average from last year has made Morneau’s OBP shrink by about 10 points, he is slugging about 20 points better, giving him a park and league adjusted OPS+ of 148, better than the 140 he had last year. He is on a pace to drive in more runs (136), score more runs (105), and hit more home runs (44) than in his MVP season of 2006. I’m not naïve enough to think that he will win another MVP without his team surging to another pennant, but he is quickly securing his position on the short list of great Twins sluggers since Harmon Killebrew. In fact, his average of 17.4 at bats per homerun for his career would rank him third all time in team history, behind Harmon (14.0) and Roy Sievers (17.1). His 13.4 average this year would be the tenth best single season total in team history, second best in the non-Killebrew division (trailing Don Mincher in 1964). In other words, if Morneau continues hitting for power for two more years, there is a good chance that he will go down as the best homerun hitter of the Metrodome era.

Biggest Disappointment

Personally, I was most disappointed by the fact that the team failed to win a single game in which they did not jump out to a large lead. I discussed some of the failings in the intro, so I will be brief. The biggest failure of the week has to be the combination of Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva, the nominal 2-3 starters on the team, who combined to give up 19 runs in 22.2 innings, losing four games in the process. Some of their problems are different- Boof can strike batters out, totaling 10 in his 12.1 innings for the week, and Silva cannot, managing only 3 punchouts in 10.1 innings. Boof tends to have a few good innings before going in the tank, while Silva spends more time getting hammered than Lindsey Lohan. The results are the same, though, with 7 combined losses over the last month and an ERA of 5.18. With Radke and Liriano holding down the middle of the rotation, two guys with 5 ERAs could survive at the back end, but without those reinforcements, it is no wonder that the rotation has slid this year.

The Big Picture

A recent poll on the Twins website asked what has to happen for the Twins to catch Cleveland and/or Detroit in the division. There were four options: Young guns must stabilize rotation; More offense from 3B, SS; Mauer has to stay healthy; Have to acquire a power bat. In my mind, no less than 3 ½ of these things have to come true in order for the Twins to contend.

First, some combination of Baker, Garza, and Slowey has to combined for an ERA close to 4 or below it to function as the middle of the rotation, as described in the last section. With Baker’s recent improvements and Garza’s domination of a tired, blown-out, below-average Chicago lineup on Friday, one could see these two achieving that goal in an extremely optimistic world.

Next, the more offense part mostly has to come from third base. Bartlett has hit .286 with a .345 OBP for the last month, which dovetails nicely with his ability to steal bases and play solid defense. He’s not a power hitter and he never will be one, but a SS with above average OBP skills goes a long way. The same cannot be said for third base, where Nick Punto costs them production on his best day. When he slugs .272 for the season, suffice to say he has not met that “best day” condition. I know that Jeff Cirillo’s knees can’t hold up playing every day, but if he gets starts for the flyball pitchers in the staff- Santana, Bonser, Baker- his defensive liabilities will not show up as much as his .871 OPS over the last month (note to Gardy: excellent job getting him in against lefty pitching. Keep it up). If he gets 60% of the 3B at bats and Punto fills in on defense and groundball pitcher days, the pain of watching Twins’ third basemen will go from torturous to inconvenient.

Keeping Mauer healthy is a no-brainer, as there is simply not enough on-base percentage in front of Morneau and Hunter when he is out of the lineup. To do so, he might need a few more days in the DH slot, and I don’t think it would be the end of the world to have him shag some flies in left if it leads to a few chances to rest his knees and not a permanent position shift. The Yankees did it with Yogi Berra early and late in his career to keep him fresh, and he has a handful of rings to show for his success.

Acquiring a power bat remains a priority. Naturally, we fixate on the big ticket items like Adam Dunn, who could be had for any two guys from the 2002 Twins roster as long as Wayne Krivsky is in the GM chair. But his price tag is too high. If you want to find candidates, look for middle-aged sluggers on teams without postseason hopes. Xavier Nady, anyone? The Pirates need prospects to build for their eternal next year, and Nady has hit .291/.344/.504. He can split LF/DH duties with Kubel, and his bat plays much better than Tyner or Ford.

On the Horizon

Take a deep breath and enjoy the All-Star break…

After the break, the Twins play yet another four game set at home against the A’s, always a tough opponent in the second half. With the days off, we’re sure to see their best pitchers, unless Joe Blanton’s temper tantrum nets him an extended break. On the positive side, the Twins get 10 straight in the Dome (where they have not been at their best this year). On the negative side, they Twins might not play a team with a losing record until July 30^th, when the Royals mercifully return to town. Only Toronto (currently 43-44) provides any sort of respite in the interim. In other words- if you’re going to make a move, do it before it’s too late, Terry.

TWIT: A Resounding Yes

Weekly Roundup

First order of business: for one week only, this column is not free. In order to gain access to the rest of the article, I’m requiring that you log onto mlb.com and vote for Pat Neshek in the All-Star Final Vote. You can vote for him because he is a Minnesota Twin, joining the rightly chosen Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau on the roster, but there are better reasons to choose him. Neshek is also one of the most exciting and entertaining players in the major leagues. Because he plays for a middle market in a flyover state, he does not receive nearly the attention he deserves. His style, results, and attitude all make him one of the most fun players in the league to watch and to root for. Even if there are other pitchers with comparable or better results (Hideki Okajima comes to mind), this game is an exhibition in which the exhibit is a collection of the best and most entertaining baseball players in the league. Giving a wider audience a chance to experience the pleasure of seeing Neshek work is exactly why the All-Star game exists in the first place. Not for World Series home field advantage. Not to stroke the egos of the league’s stars. Not to create debate among fans over a game of little consequence. The All-Star game showcases the best and most entertaining aspects of the game of baseball- Pat Neshek is definitely one of those aspects.

In other news, the Twins happened to have an outstanding week in games that actually count. After starting the week by losing two of their first three at the Dome against Toronto, it looked as if judgment week could start on a pretty sour note. The bats came alive on Thursday, though, staking the Twins to an 8-5, come from behind win in Frank Thomas’s 500^th HR game. The teams were quite evenly matched through the series, each scoring and allowing 19 runs over the course of the split set. With Toronto playing well of late, splitting that sort of series is not a bad thing in the least.

The weekend series with the Tigers was far more inspiring, as the team had no trouble with Detroit for the first two games, winning 11-1 Friday, then jumping to an 8-2 lead on Saturday before holding on for an 8-5 win. Try as he might, Scott Baker did not gild the lily on Sunday. Baker’s best start of the season resulted in a complete game, 1-0 loss at the hands of Jeremy Bonderman, and brought his own weekly line to 15 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 1.20 ERA, and a big, fat 0 wins. Don’t blame Scotty, he can’t do it alone if the team doesn’t have the power. The one run they scored between his two starts came after he was lifted in the 2-1 loss against Toronto. The trend is here still a positive one. We already knew that the Twins occasionally have trouble scoring runs. Baker’s improved performance does nothing to change my opinion of the offense, but if he can pitch like a legitimate no. 3 starter the rest of the year, it could be worth 3 or 4 full wins over what I was expecting when he was pitching like a quad-A fill-in.

Biggest Success

Baker’s delayed emergence certainly fits in this category. The offense also had several surprising turns for the better, including a 6-15 (.400) week for Jason Tyner, a homer and a double in 9 plate appearances for Lew Ford, and two more doubles for Jason Kubel. My personal favorite of the week, though, is the strong play of Jason Bartlett, which has become more visible and effectual since his move to the number two spot in the order. One can only abide so much Nick Punto, and as high as Gardy’s threshold seems to be, a week of .087 SLG seemed to further legitimize moving him down in the order. Bartlett responded by going .310/.375/.483 with an outstanding 5 steals in 5 tries. He also led the team with 8 runs scored. Perhaps these numbers do not jump off of the screen, but they absolutely mark a step in the right direction for one of the Twins players who was actually playing below his head, rather than predictably failing (i.e.- Nick Punto).

Biggest Disappointment

Last week, I lamented the struggles and probable injury of Juan Rincon. This week, I would like to broaden the scope by casting a wider net at the about half of the bullpen. The Twins loss on Monday, 8-5 at the hands of the Blue Jays, was a rare case of Matt Guerrier disappointing the team by giving up 3 runs on four hits in an inning and a third. I do not blame Guerrier for that misgiving; I blame the rest of the bullpen for forcing him into so huge number of high-leverage situations. Guerrier, Neshek, and Nathan have been the only reliable relievers of late, and they have paid a price for it. Consider the following:

-In June alone, Guerrier was asked to work on back-to-back days three separate times. In all three cases, he was asked to pitch beyond one inning on the second day. Remember that Guerrier is a young pitcher who was injured last year and who has never been pushed to work back-to-back days with any frequency.

-Former bullpen stalwarts Juan Rincon and Dennys Reyes combined for a total of 14.1 IP for the month of June, fewer than Guerrier pitched by himself. Reyes, limited by injury at the start of the month, remains in situational duty, while Rincon struggles to get batters out (7.27 ERA for the month).

-Joe Nathan pitched only 10 innings for the entire month. Gardenhire may be falling into the Trevor Hoffman trap, whereby a manager limits his closer to very little besides save situations, keeping him fresh, but hurting the team by keeping one of the best pitchers out of the game. He appeared in only 4 non-save situations all month, two of them being tie games in the ninth or later. Giving him one or two of Guerrier’s late-game appearances in non-save situations may help keep the bullpen fresh across the board and prevent bad games like Monday’s.

I do not mean to be overly critical of the bullpen management, which is definitely one of Gardenhire’s strengths. Moreso, I feel that the biggest disappointment of the week is the realization that the team has only three dependable relievers in the bullpen right now. And as the Yankees have shown over the last few years, a team that relies on a few relievers all season tends to burn out in the postseason.

On the Horizon

Seven games in New York and Chicago. There are no surprises here. The Yankees have lost 8 of 10 games, which one can take to mean in a couple of ways. Are they a sleeping giant, waiting to go off for 35 runs in a three game series, or are they just hitting rock bottom, where even the Twins can walk all over them. We have three games to find out, and the Twins will have to solve Clemens, Wang, and Mussina to keep up with a geriatric, but powerful offense. Recent struggles aside, none of those three pitchers have been Minnesota favorites over the years, Mussina in particular.

Chicago also seems to be bottoming out. The trade talk surrounding the team does not center on acquiring Ken Griffey, for once, but includes whispers of the word “firesale.” Personally, I do not think Mark Buehrle should be the one to go, with older guys like Jose Contreras likely to fetch a decent return. Jermaine Dye seems like a good candidate to be traded, but with as many high-minors pitching prospects as the team acquired last year, Kenny Williams ought to be thinking about building for 2009, not 1012. Two more interesting notes on the series regarding Twins pitchers: Johan Santana will likely do is side work in one of the double-header games on Friday, something I have been wanting to see for years. Also, although it is currently “TBA,” Matt Garza will finally get another crack at starting in the majors in one of those Friday games, as well. Here’s hoping that he makes good on his complaints about being passed over.

The Big Picture

Last week, I discussed how the Twins were entering the most important two week stretch of the season so far. Through one week, the acquitted themselves quite well, very nearly sweeping the best team they will play through the four series. With another 4-3 week, all on the road against the Yankees and White Sox, the Twins will likely go into the All-Star break about 5-7 manageable games out of the Central lead, and slightly closer to the Wild Card. If Scott Baker has turned over a new leaf and plays the second half of the season with an ERA closer to 3 than to 6, and Terry Ryan makes good on his promise to rent a hitter, I think making up 4 or 5 games on a potential Wild Card team is eminently feasible. For now, I do not want to jinx the solid stretch the team has started, so I will stop. In the meantime, remember to vote early and often for Pat Neshek.