The Opposite Way

By this point, just about everyone understands the effect that a stadium can have on a hitter’s statistics. A related concept that receives slightly less attention is the effect that a stadium can have on a hitter’s approach at the plate. For instance, a lefty power hitter in Yankee Stadium will go to great lengths to pull the ball at every opportunity, looking for inside pitches and possibly forgoing the opportunity to go the other way. On the other hand, look at the career arc of David Ortiz, who started hitting the ball the opposite way when he reached Fenway in order to utilize the Monster. Ortiz previously struggled to go the other way, creating a hole in his swing that pitchers exploited.

The San Diego Padres have benefited tremendously from one such development. A few years ago, it looked as if former number one pick Adrian Gonzalez had joined the ranks of busted prospects who were once considered “can’t miss” types. A couple of uninspired seasons in Texas saw him hit for low average, fail to draw walks, and hit for too little power for a first baseman. His cat-like speed and reflexes translated into positive contributions in the field, but his batting line was miserable enough that he could not survive at shortstop. Even his 2004 AAA line in hitter-friendly Oklahoma City would not cut it in the bigs, because a .457 SLG for a first baseman only works if you draw enough walks to keep your OBP at or above .400. Despite a solid minor league stint in 2005, the Rangers sent him packing before the 2006 season as something of an afterthought in the Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka for Chris Young trade. Solid as Otsuka has been, Eaton’s injuries, taken alongside the success of Young and Gonzalez have made the trade a slam dunk success for Kevin Towers and the Padres, playing a very sizable role in getting them into the postseason in 2006 and keeping them on the radar in a stronger NL West this year.

The transformation of Gonzalez came almost immediately after arriving in San Diego, a very perplexing development considering the fact that PETCO Park is an albatross for most left-handed power hitters. Players like Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko openly complained about the homer-sapping effects of their home field after moving into the new digs a few years ago, and the Padres have essentially given up on acquiring top-flight lefty hitting talent since that time.

Looking at the dimensions of the park, it is no surprise that southpaws would struggle to hit many homeruns. After all, power alleys are the foremost indicators of a stadium’s run environment, and PETCO does a number on anyone trying to pull the ball to right field. Even though the center field fence is only 396 feet away from home plate, the fence actually gets further away in the power alleys, peaking at 411 feet in the right-center power alley, a spot where many lefty power hitters pile up their extra base hits. At 378 in right field, the conventional pull does not get much more help. A right field corner that runs perpendicular to home plate makes the fair pole look like a more forgiving 322 feet, although the angle makes it extremely difficult to hit a fair ball over that fence. Compare these dimensions to left field, where the power alley tops out at 402 feet, quickly juts in to 367 feet, then tapers off to 334 down the line in a much more standard formation. Right-handed hitters have it tough enough in the stadium; lefties have it nearly impossible.

So how has Gonzalez managed to blossom into a star player pushing a 900 OPS in one of the least favorable hitting environments for his skill set in all of baseball? Just as I mentioned in the intro, Gonzalez has made a career-altering adjustment. His numbers saw a small dip at home, going from a strong .311/.378/.527 on the road to a more paltry .296/.344/.471 at home. The second line would not survive at first base in a neutral park, but considering that PETCO is anything but a neutral park begins to put his production into context.

Thanks to the wonderful Hit Chart feature at mlb.com, we can take that analysis a bit deeper. When reading the chart for Gonzalez, it is easy to see how he managed to work around the power-depressing dimensions of his home stadium. Whereas young ballplayers learn to hit for power by pulling the ball relentlessly, Gonzalez had to relearn the approach to go the other way, and he did so brilliantly. Of the 16 doubles he hit at PETCO last year, 2 of them snuck into that funny right field corner. The other 14 went to the opposite field. And I’m not talking about dead center or a mild pull; I mean that he hit all of these doubles into true left field, a majority of them directly down the line. Even the homeruns he hit at home were skewed to the left, as 5 of the 10 went to center or the opposite way. Compare those splits to the way he hit on the road, where 9 of his other 21 doubles went to the opposite field. Even though that percentage shows some residual effect of his adjustment, he clearly makes a point of going the opposite way when the stadium dictates it as a necessity.

This perverse development puts Gonzalez in a unique position for the rest of his career, since statistical projections typically do not account for a player making a radical adjustment to his style to accommodate a stadium. It begs the question of what would happen to Gonzalez in a different hitting environment, although his road statistics seem to indicate that he knows what he’s doing there, as well. Ultimately, I do not believe that any projection system can fully account for the way Gonzalez has made the most of a difficult situation, nor do I think they can pick up on how intelligent of a player this adjustment indicates that he is. For both of these reasons, I expect him to play above the projection levels for several seasons, especially considering that he is still only 25 years old and has plenty of room to grow. PECOTA sees 2006 as his career year, forecasting a drop from being a seven win player last year to hovering around five wins worth of value over each of the next four. Part of the problem with that progression is that it sees his success at home as a bit fluky and regresses heavily to the mean. In reality, Gonzalez got smart instead of getting lucky, and deserves credit for it. Don’t blame the projection systems- treating every improvement as a breakout season would lead to a proliferation of over-projections. On the other hand, there is the occasional David Ortiz who makes sudden and real improvements in his game that the system must chalk up to unaccounted variance. Just as Gonzalez has replicated his 2006 form so far in 2007 (.308/.359/.551), expect him to remain a cheaply-acquired franchise first baseman for several years to come.

TWIT: The Wild Thing

Weekly Roundup

A 3-4 record and a run differential of 29 scored against 26 allowed seems innocuous enough, a seemingly middling and boring week that will be forgettable by the end of the year. The broad strokes do not describe the full picture, though, as the team went from ice cold to red hot over just a few days, then gave it all back with a depressing loss behind Johan Santana. If there was a way to quantify a team's momentum, the Twins likely would have run the gamut over the last seven days. The ignominious start to the week featured the completion of a four game losing streak in which the bats would not awaken, no matter how many bad first pitches at which the team decided to pursue. Scoring ten total runs over the first four games of the week gave a pretty good summary of how miserable the entire offense was. Winning the last of the four games 1-0 in 11 innings, though, seemed to reassure the team in some odd fashion, leading to two very good wins to open the weekend series in Detroit. Sure, losing to Kansas City four out of five times over the course of a week is depressing and sad, but making up for it against the teams who will actually remain in competition to the end of the year helps to temper that sullen feeling. Think of it this way: when reading the morning box scores, seeing Detroit lose to an anonymous opponent means far more than seeing Kansas City drop one because the Tigers figure to remain close. Thus, beating the Tigers two out of three ensures a loss to a key opponent, whereas losing to the Royals is scarcely different from losing to a non-divisional opponent. That does not mean that 6-13 record against the perennial cellar dwellers is desirable, nor does it make the last week's offensive futility excusable. Nonetheless, one need not become overly upset at a few games in April while the team lingers around first place.

Biggest Success

Looking at the recent offensive splits, it is extremely easy to pick a pair of winners for this category in Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter. Aside from a few singles by Jason Kubel, every other position player hit .241 or worse over the last week, making it no wonder that the team struggled to score runs. The faces of the franchise held it together, though, combining for 19 hits and 30 total bases. As is usually the case, Hunter and Mauer to different routes to success at the plate. Hunter managed a line of .360/.370/.680 without drawing a base on balls, keeping the aggressive approach at the plate that has worked for him thus far. Perhaps an impatient style is not optimal, but if you can have a center fielder who plays plus defense and manages an OPS over 800 every year, you take it no matter how that split breaks down. The positional scarcity is that crucial in the calculation. Even though there are even fewer quality catchers around the league, Mauer stands out even further above the rest of his peers. Last week's .391/.517/.565 harkens back to the early months of last season when sportswriters started paying attention to the homegrown golden boy because they would look silly if he hit .400 and they had not written a wave of puff pieces about his sideburns and general affability. Even better than the insane OBP over the last week was the encouraging sign that Mauer finally got his first round-tripper of the year in Saturday's romp over the Tigers. If he can manage to keep his walks and batting average up through patience and pitch recognition alone, then more power to him, but if Mauer's ability to mash develops over the next few seasons, it will only give pitchers another reason to keep the ball off of the plate. Since that is yet another way to prevent making outs, the Twins will be better for it.

Biggest Disappointment

Jesse Crain had a down week, but his failings would have been much less noticeable if the offense had picked him up at some point along the way. Instead, I would prefer to use this space to defame the entire offense. Since I doubt I can hold anyone's attention long enough to go through every misstep that has occurred, I will focus on the middle infield tandem of Jason Bartlett and Alexi Casilla, who were responsible for more "outs" in the last week than the GLAAD awards. Casila hit .190/.227/.238 over the last week, making everyone long for the days when Juan Castro would hit .215 and stretch a handful of his plate appearances to three or four pitches. Instead, Casilla has swung at everything in site, presumably thinking that his speed will make up for the fact that he's hitting the ball about as hard as that omnipresent obese kid on the tee-ball team. Normally, I would blame the front office for exposing Casilla before his skill set has fully developed. In this case, I think Casilla deserves the blame, though, since he has the underlying skills to be a patient and disciplined hitter, but left them somewhere between Rochester and Minneapolis. If he can remember how to draw a walk, it will be much easier for fans to see why he drew so many comparisons to Luis Castillo by statheads and scouts alike. Bartlett's .208/.269/.250 line looks alright compared to Casilla, but that is like calling Mussolini a bastion of democratic ideals relative to his geopolitical allies. In an article earlier this week, Ray Felix did a good job breaking down the parts of Bartlett's game that have gone awry so far this season, and we had better hope that he fixes that (especially his approach at the plate) in the near future, because the only other alternative is the guy I just compared to Hitler.

On the Horizon

Last week, I commented that the coming week would help sort out the division just a little. Since so many teams had inconsistent starts due to weather- especially Cleveland- it seemed appropriate to reserve judgment until a later date. Alas, since the Twins week was every bit as inconsistent as the ones before it, the division is even more log-jammed than it was before. Entering May, we're only a couple of weeks away from being able to make more generalized statements about the team. I'm worried about that time coming a little too soon considering the difficult schedule coming up in the near future. Traveling to Tampa used to be a slam dunk for the Twins, but with struggles against the newly dangerous D-Rays at the Dome, the upcoming three game set could be a downer. At least we miss Scott Kazmir, who is the kind of lefty who should strike fear in the heart of any Twins fan. Following that series by starting a 9 game home-stand against the white hot Red Sox makes the next week a dicey proposition. Curt Schilling and Johan Santana miss matching up by a day, narrowly costing us a chance to see a repeat of the Twins' most exciting game of last season. Splitting the six games over the week would please me. Anything more would be almost shocking.

The Big Picture

On the positive side, the Twins have outscored their opponents by more runs (12) than any other team in the division. More realistically, the team's performance has outpaced its component parts pretty significantly. It is one thing for a team with a strong bullpen to outperform its Pythagorean projection, it is quite another thing for a team to systematically score more runs and prevent more runs than the hitters and pitchers produce. There are only so many two out hits and stranded runners for a team over the course of the season. Once again, I will reiterate that it is extremely early in the season, that the team is still in the middle of the competition, and that what happens in August and September is imminently more crucial than what is happening at the moment. At the same time, the Twins deifnitely have a seedy underbelly, and the more than can do to patch it over at this point, the better.

This Week in Twins: The Start of Something New

[Note: This column will appear weekly on both this site and the new site Minnesota's Sports Guys, to which I will be a regular contributor. Also, be sure to read the following article about Eddie Murray/Murphy which I posted just below this one over the weekend.]

Weekly Roundup

The Twins endured an up-and-down road trip, sweeping the usually feisty Mariners in Seattle, then succumbing to the Royals twice over the weekend. While it is hard to complain about a 4-2 record, the Twins have yet to take a bit out of the meat of the schedule. Even though Kansas City is not the pushover they have been the last few years, there is no excuse for managing one run against Jorge De La Rosa.

Before the disappointment came the glee of pounding the Mariners, averaging 7.3 runs per game in the series, even if some of that good fortune came at the expense of Felix Hernandez’s royal sinews. Mike Cuddyer led the hit parade, piling up 8 total bases and five runs batted in through the series. The starting pitching continued to impress, as well, with Ortiz, Silva, and Santana turning in a trifecta of quality starts. These early season trips to Safeco have become something of a tradition in the last several years, and they usually give the Twins fits- despite the disparity in the quality of the two teams over the last five years, the Twins are only 8-8 at Safeco since 2002. In that light, a series sweep looks even more appealing.

While the Twins sparkled against the M’s, all that glitters is certainly not gold. The same team that looked so capable mid-week looked inept throughout dropping two of three to a team that has come to know a thing or two about ineptitude. Game one saw another seven runs scored, including another Cuddyer homerun and three hits from the typically scorching Joe Mauer. The run prevention side of the equation left us wanting, though, as Sidney Ponson kept the question open as to whether his ERA or his waistline would end the year further above league average. I would say Ponson is some sort of pathetic example of déjà vu from 2006, but nobody on that roster- not even Tony Batista- was as remarkably hopeless as Ponson. If he remains this out of shape, he may challenge Patrick Ewing’s record of “sweatiest athlete in the first five minutes of a sporting event.” Sixteen hits and four shutout innings of relief helped to pick up Boof Bonser in Saturday’s 7-5 win, making it the weekend’s biggest highlight. The week ended on a sour note nonetheless, as poor weather kept the team from hitting any batting practice. And keeping in mind the adage that “how you practice is how you play in the game,” it should be no surprise that the Twins did not hit in the game either. Jorge De La Rosa cast an eight inning spell on the entire lineup, allowing only another RBI double from Cuddyer. Buddy Bell wisely switched to Joakim Soria for the ninth, putting De La Rosa back in his carriage before he turned back into a pumpkin. The game was something of a microcosm for what has gone wrong for the Twins outside of the pitching staff- although Cuddyer and Mauer each played well, the rest of the lineup mustered only a few singles, and Bartlett committed his Jeter-esque 6^th error of the young season. Now I don’t want to tempt fate by suggesting that he needs more AAA seasoning, but if he keeps fielding this poorly, the AL Gold Glove voters might start thinking of him as serious competition for Jeter’s throne.

Biggest Surprise

Even though it seems counterintuitive to believe that a lifelong underachiever could turn around his career after spending one month with a new pitching coach (his fourth), I keep hoping against hope that Ramon Ortiz is for real. He has been the team’s most valuable pitcher in terms of Value Over Replacement Player, and he has done it by pulling off his best Carlos Silva impression. No, not that Carlos Silva. I’m talking about the one who kept the ball over the plate constantly, but with enough downward movement to prevent extra base hits. Sure enough, Ortiz has given up some singles- a respectable, but not earth-shattering, 6.6 per nine- but walks and homeruns are tougher to come by. His two quality starts this week only resulted in one victory, although the 25-12 groundball-flyball ratio hints at the potential for continued success. Let me be clear: I don’t make a policy out of banking on pitchers with a 3.3 K/9 rate; he’s demanding entirely too much from his defense. With a little improvement, however, the rest of the peripherals are there to keep up a very solid season, munching innings just as Terry Ryan had hoped.

Biggest Disappointment

Maybe it is not fair to call it a disappointment if everyone could see it coming. In any case, Nick Punto’s .204/.283/.315 line could not cut it in the middle infield, and it certainly does not cut it at the hot corner. I know he has not been entirely healthy this year, and I know that he actually managed 5 hits (2 XBHs) over the weekend. Still, this piranha has a long way to go before he convinces me that he is more solution than problem. The history books are littered with guys who could draw a walk now and then with good pitch recognition skills. Without the ability to punish mistakes, though, these same batters eventually stopped walking as pitchers realized they could throw the ball over the plate without repercussions. With an anemic .342 career SLG, Punto does not profile as a Mark Teahen type who eventually learns to start pulling the ball. If he can use his speed and ability to make contact to squeak out a few hits or turn some singles into doubles here and there, he could make himself a solid contributor as an infield super-sub. As a full-time player, though, he is all disappointment.

On the Horizon

The Twins have a full slate this week, welcoming Cleveland and Kansas City to the Dome for two apiece, then traveling to Detroit for three over the weekend to rekindle a matchup that generated some very entertaining games a year ago. Cleveland has looked good, if a little disjointed. That fault can be easily forgiven considering their odd schedule so far. The Twins will likely see the back end of Cleveland’s rotation, with Jeremy Sowers matching up against Silva on Monday, and Fausto Carmona trying to prevent Santana from starting a new Dome winning streak on Tuesday. The Twins could feast on this pair of starters with 5+ ERAs, or they could make them into this week’s Jorge De La Rosa. Only time will tell. Against the Royals, the Twins will get a repeat look at Odalis Perez and Zack Greinke. All four starters saw the opponent over the weekend, so there should be plenty of runs scored.

The Big Picture

Nobody ought to complain about first place in the division. Be wary, though, as the competition has not been terribly stiff and the rest of the division has not found any consistency so far. The Twins are already a win and a half above their run differential, and two and a half wins above their third order projections (based on how many runs they should have scored and prevented, derived from individual performance). According to those numbers, they’re only a .500 team so far, not so hot after facing a bunch of teams who figure to occupy fourth or fifth place in the standings by year’s end. The early returns on the playoff odds report from Baseball Prospectus place the Twins as roughly an even-money bet to make the postseason. Since I saw them as something less than a playoff team before the season began, I have no complaints.

Brotherly Love

As a child, I recall having difficulty remembering the difference between Eddie Murphy and Eddie Murray. I knew that one was an actor in movies my parents did not want me to watch and that the other had been playing baseball for a very, very long time. Eventually, I caught up on my baseball history as well as my 1980s comedies, making it much easier to keep the two straight. So imagine my surprise when I found, through a blog article on Baseball Reference’s Bullpen, that Eddie Murray had a less successful brother named Charlie Murray. When Eddie Murphy’s big brother Charlie achieved notoriety a few years ago for his contributions to Dave Chappelle’s Comedy Central show, it made for an odd Hollywood family tree branching out in a strange sequence. A similar development in Murray’s family would risk even more confusion with their similar sounding names. In order to maintain some semblance of order to the universe, these pairs of Charlies and Eddies have to be compared and dissected, so let’s go to the tale of the tape.

Greater Overall Value: The Eddies make for a classic comparison between a high peak and great longevity. Murphy burst onto the scene in the early 80s doing impersonations and his Mr. Robinson character on SNL, quickly starred in 48 Hrs. and Beverly Hills Cop, and has spent the last 20 years trying to replicate the success of the first five. Eddie Murray had unbelievably little variation in his remarkably lengthy career. He hit 20 or more homeruns sixteen times, but never more than 33. He had 18 seasons with at least a league average OPS, 12 of which were between 30 and 60 percent better than average. Charlie Murray was more top-heavy, hitting 37 homeruns for the Modesto Colts in 1964, but only 63 in his other 6 professional seasons combined. Since Charlie Murphy was able to break out of similar early-career obscurity to achieve semi-stardom of his own in the last few years, I’ll give the nod in this category to the actors. Advantage: Murphy

Longevity: As I mentioned in the previous comment, Eddie Murray had incredible longevity, a record of consistency as impressive as any in the history of Major League Baseball. The Murphys, too, have stayed in Hollywood for a much longer stretch than the average comedic actor. Despite having ups and downs, both Eddie has been a household name across a couple of generations, and Charlie has been working fairly consistently since his brother cast him in Harlem Nights in 1989. Eddie’s shelf life speaks to the quality of different vices common among celebrities. While Eddie saw comedians like John Belushi and Chris Farley achieve similarly radiant peaks, their drug habits ended their success early. Eddie chose sex over drugs, with eight children by four mothers as evidence, and it was a good decision. Aside from a likely high tolerance for penicillin, he has suffered very little over twenty-five years in showbiz. I’m choosing the Murrays on this one based only on the historic consistency of Eddie’s career, but it is a closer race than it may appear at first. Advantage: Murray

Peak Value: Since it is difficult to even define a peak for Murray, the Murphys have a clear advantage in this field. Finishing in the top five in MVP voting each year from 1981 to 1985, including four consecutive 156 OPS+ seasons makes for a pretty solid stretch. In fact, it was good enough to lead the Orioles to a pair of pennants and one World Championship. Nonetheless, Murray was never even the best known player on his own team, whereas Eddie Murphy was arguably one of the most famous and popular personalities in the entire world for a five or six year stretch in the mid-80s. Even though some of his more recent movies have not been as popular or critically acclaimed, they have done his wallet no harm. He explained his motivation as such, "Every bad decision I've made has been based on money. I grew up in the projects and you don't turn down money there. You take it, because you never know when it's all going to end. I made Cop III because they offered me $15 million. That $15 million was worth having Roger Ebert's thumb up my ass." Twenty million apiece for Pluto Nash, Dr. Doolittle 2, and the Nutty Professor 2 demonstrates that he has had two different periods of remarkable success: one popularly and critically, the other financially. Advantage: Murphy

Versatility: In his career, Eddie Murray played 6 games at third base and 3 in the outfield. Other than those rare occurrences, he mainly plodded around first base and the batter’s box as a full-time DH later in his career. He did manage to steal 110 bases in his career, and possibly ranking behind only Mickey Mantle as the second greatest switch hitter of all-time gives him at least a few points for versatility. His brother, by all reports, was an extremely raw player who never had a chance to fully grow into his skills. Never having played a game until his senior year of high school contributed to developmental difficulty, making him something less than a jack of all trades. Between acting and standup comedy, the Murphys take a decided lead in terms of versatility. Eddie started by pushing the envelope, then starred in a slew of children’s movies (quite successfully), and recently received an Oscar nomination for his dramatic role in Dreamgirls. He can supposedly sing, as well, though “Party All the Time” serves as no evidence of that suggestion. Advantage: Murphy

Debuts: Eddie Murray did about as much as one can ask of a rookie. He debuted as a fully developed 21 year old player, having roughly the season he would have 15 or 20 more times in the future. He hit .283/.333/.470 with 27 homeruns, winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award. His brother managed to hit 16 homeruns in his first professional season, but an average of .180 has to dampen one’s enthusiasm. He repeated that performance the next year, leading the Georgia-Florida League with 15 homeruns, while managing a sub-Mendoza .194 BA. Eddie Murphy’s debut in 48 Hrs. was a very good one, if not his very best work. On the positive side, he got to work with Nick Nolte, and he set the stage for the deluge of 80s buddy cop movies that brighten up cable TV lineups to this day. On the other hand, the movie has not aged particularly well, and it is now almost impossible to find it anywhere on TV. As I mentioned earlier, Charlie Murphy’s first movie was Harlem Nights, the sort of mediocre nepotism which I do not hasten to endorse. Advantage: Murray

Comebacks: Charlie Murray sat out all of 1967 and 1968, possibly to serve in Vietnam. He returned to play in 1969 and 1971, albeit not very well. Charlie Murphy’s renaissance on Chappelle’s Show is one of the more remarkable true Hollywood stories, to the point where a small sect of the population may know more about Charlie than his brother. Before Chapelle, Charlie’s only movie role in three years was Paper Soldiers, basically a neo-blacksploitation movie put together by Jay Z’s Rocafella records partner Damon Dash. If all goes according to schedule, he will have seven movies released this year alone. Since the Eddies have remained famous enough not to necessitate any comebacks, this category belongs to the brothers, and Murphy has a clear win. Advantage: Murphy

Awards: While the Charlies dominated the last category, their more acclaimed siblings have won many more awards. Murphy has won pretty much every award that exists, from Grammys for his comedy albums, to Emmys for SNL and the PJs, to a Golden Globe for Dreamgirls. He has never won an Oscar, which has to be considered the MVP of acting trophies. Perhaps more importantly, he got a Razzie in 1989 for acting in and directing Harlem Nights, which was a bad, bad movie. Murray also failed to reach the pinnacle in his sport, compiling a pair of MVP runner-ups, but losing out to Robin Yount in 1982 and teammate Cal Ripken in 1983. With the aforementioned Rookie of the Year under his belt, eight All-Star Games, three Gold Gloves at first base, and three Silver Slugger awards, Murray has a very strong resume. Altogether, it is a very close race. Slight Advantage: Murray

In conclusion, after breaking down the most important achievements of Eddie/Charlie Murray and Murphy, the Murphys come out ahead 4-3, confirming my intuitive believe that the Murphy brothers have had a slightly more prestigious career. Comparing them to Eddie Murray and his more accomplished brother Rich might have been a more fair comparison, but it lacks the intrigue of similarity. As a result, those trying to keep track of which Eddie plays baseball and which acts cannot rely on family ties alone, but can fall back on the Murphys being the ones with greater success.

Same Song, Second Verse

Why has it been seven years since the New York Yankees won the World Series? Roster construction, situational hitting, bullpen depth, and managerial decision making have certainly played a roll in The Boss’ torment, but starting pitching stands out as the number one factor differentiating the three-peat Yankees from the $200 million albatross continually crapping out before the pennant. The continuity of Andy Pettitte, David Cone and Orlando Hernandez served them well through the late ‘90s, and more recent teams have scrambled to find the right mix throughout the regular season, and especially into the postseason.

My point here is not that the Yankees need to rededicate themselves to finding consistent starting pitching. While that may be a desirable end for New Yorkers, I believe it is more instructive to look at teams who have captured lightning in a bottle long enough to get good performances out of an entire starting rotation. The 2005 Pale Hoes blew people’s sox off by winning about 20 more games than anyone expected, mostly behind the simultaneous ascension of the entire starting rotation. In looking for the 2006 version of Cinderella, very few analysts fingered the Detroit Tigers, and it would be hard to blame them. The sheer improbability that Detroit would make the leap from mediocrity to dominance the year after reshaping their entire roster did not sound like a plausible proposition at the time, and it still seems at least a bit quizzical.

Looking at the teams’ components, though, it ought not shock anyone that the Tigers were up to the task. In broad strokes, the team featured a fly catching outfield and a rangy infield without any pronounced weaknesses. Offensively, they mimicked the White Sox top-to-bottom consistency, as well as their lack of an overpowering force that would distinguish them from other average offenses. The pitching staff, though, seemed to have far less upside than the one that broke through for Chicago the year before. Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander both had high ceilings, but neither had achieved anything like greatness in the majors. And the rest of the rotation did not seem to provide the depth that kept the Sox in so many games the year before, as Kenny Rogers and Mike Maroth struck fear in the hearts of few. Nonetheless, the Tigers exploded early in the season and kept the pace long enough to get to the World Series. Here, I will take a deeper look at the numbers behind the similarities to see if there is some sort of trend that has benefited the Sox and the Tigers at the expense of teams like the Yankees.

Last	Year	IP	ERA	EqH9	EqBB9	EqSO9	EqHR9	VORP	BABIP
Buehrle	2005	198.3	4.47	10.2	2.0	5.1	1.0	35.1	NA
Garcia	2005	178.7	4.55	9.4	2.6	6.5	1.1	30.5	NA
Contreras	2005	129.3	4.91	8.9	3.6	7.3	1.1	17.1	NA
Garland	2005	169.3	5.05	10.1	2.9	4.7	1.2	19.7	NA
Hernandez	2005	113.0	4.35	8.8	3.2	7.0	1.1	24.2	NA
McCarthy	2005	82.3	4.77	9.3	2.4	6.5	1.4	12.7	NA
Buehrle	actual	236.7	3.12	9.1	1.5	5.7	0.8	54.8	0.295
Garcia	actual	228.0	3.87	8.9	2.4	5.8	1.0	45.7	0.285
Contreras	actual	204.7	3.61	7.8	3.3	6.8	1.0	42.1	0.263
Garland	actual	221.0	3.50	8.6	1.9	4.7	1.0	50.7	0.27
Hernandez	actual	128.3	5.12	9.6	3.5	6.4	1.3	6.9	0.306
McCarthy	actual	67.0	4.03	8.3	2.3	6.5	1.8	13.6	0.251
Last	Year	IP	ERA	EqH9	EqBB9	EqSO9	EqHR9	VORP	BABIP
Verlander	2006	153.0	4.20	8.7	2.9	6.5	1.0	19.4	.287
Robertson	2006	184.7	4.35	9.3	2.8	5.6	0.9	18.9	.295
Rogers	2006	167.0	4.87	10.2	2.6	4.3	1.1	7.1	.299
Bonderman	2006	194.7	4.05	8.8	2.8	6.8	0.9	28.1	.294
Maroth	2006	192.7	4.41	9.8	2.2	4.6	1.0	19.4	.296
Ledezma	2006	78.7	5.39	9.9	3.8	5.8	1.2	-0.5	.304
Verlander	actual	186.0	3.63	9.0	2.9	6.0	1.0	47.5	.297
Robertson	actual	208.7	4.28	8.9	2.9	5.9	1.3	42.4	.281
Rogers	actual	204.0	3.84	8.6	2.7	4.4	1.0	40.6	.265
Bonderman	actual	214.0	4.08	9.0	2.7	8.5	0.8	39.8	.323
Maroth	actual	53.7	4.36	10.7	2.7	4.0	1.8	10.0	.291
Ledezma	actual	60.3	3.58	9.0	3.4	5.8	0.8	12.6	.286
Miner	actual	93.0	4.84	9.7	3.1	5.7	1.1	9.6	.305

The data in the table compares PECOTA’s projections before each team’s breakout season with the starting pitchers’ actual contributions. Although the projections for the teams’ pitchers do not look wildly different, it is important to note that not everyone saw them on the same path going into their respective years. The White Sox were often seen in an unflattering light. Having just traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, it seemed that their powerful offense would have more trouble keeping up with a solid, yet unspectacular, pitching staff. Joe Sheehan predicted 71 wins, largely due to the fact that he did not believe in the starting rotation.

“The pitching staff isn't going to make up for the falloff in runs scored. Freddy Garcia and Mark Buehrle are mid-rotation innings guys who get paid like aces. They head a rotation that's long on hope--not just one, but two Cubans with shaky recent track records exiled from the Bronx--and short on anything you can rely upon.”

I do not mean to pick on Sheehan; I believe his comments are representative of many fans going into 2005. The White Sox came out of the dark to the point that I was still anticipating their collapse when they were ahead 2-0 in the World Series. The Tigers, on the other hand, at least looked as if they had some chance to improve. Sheehan picked them to win 78 games, commenting that they would be “an interesting team to watch.” While short of contention, he at least saw some positives coming out of the motor city.

Obviously, the results of the games told a different story, as each team came close to 100 wins and caught fire in the postseason. Is there some common theme that we should have identified to help us see these teams coming? Looking into the data, there does not seem to be any systematic shortcoming causing under-projections for either team. Chicago skinned the cat by dramatically limiting base runners: every started except El Duque outperformed both the walk and hit surrendered projections. On average, the White Sox were 9% better than the projections in hits allowed per nine, and a whopping 16% better in walks per nine innings pitched. Naturally, teams will have trouble scoring runs when most of their plate appearances end in outs.

Detroit’s projections were not so far off. Like Hernandez in Chicago, Mike Maroth was the lone disappointment standing out from a group that met or exceeded expectations, although this unit’s improvements were less staggering. As an aggregate, their actual performance was within 3% of the cumulative projections for all of the major rate stats- hits, walks, strikeouts and homeruns. They beat or met their ERA projections across the board, so some of the variance comes from factors outside of this relatively broad scope (such as stranding runners, turning double plays, and other factors over which the pitcher has less control). Despite these differences, I can identify five key similarities between the two staffs, some by design and some by happenstance.

1. An ace taking a big step forward, regardless of defensive help. Mark Buehrle’s career year was a major factor in Chicago’s 2005 success. He did not replicate that step in 2006, and has started shakily in 2005. Nonetheless, Buehrle was fantastic in 2005, far above the label of innings eater, primarily because he made very few mistakes (miniscule 1.5 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 rates). These numbers indicate that he trusted a very strong defensive unit, and did so without cutting down on his strikeout rate. Justin Verlander did not have the consistent track record that Buehrle had going into his breakout season, but he was a highly touted prospect who arrived all at once. Across the board, his numbers came very close to PECOTA’s projections, except for his ERA, which was more than half of a run better. That luck combined with his solid durability at a tender age made him the most valuable of the team’s starting pitchers, at least in terms of Value Over Replacement Player.

2. A mid-rotation starter who looked much better by getting defensive help and limiting walks. Jon Garland, meet Kenny Rogers. Sure, the gambler has a much longer rap sheet than Garland, but look at how much each player benefited from his defense. Even though there were no projections for batting average on balls in play in 2005, notice that every prediction for 2006 hovered between about .290 and .300 with small variations for extreme groundball or flyball pitchers. Garland’s defense took about 25 points off of that average, giving up only a .270 average on balls in play. Rogers got even more help with a .265 BABIP, though he did not slice a full walk per nine innings off of his rate projection like Garland did. In any case, each pitcher chipped in over 200 innings with an ERA below 4.00, and very strong defenses deserve some of the credit in both occurrences.

3. Beating innings projections by keeping their most effective pitchers healthy. One of the interesting aspects of the Yankees’ starting pitching is that they consistently had 4 starters making 27 or more starts in each of their four World Championship seasons in the ‘90s, and have returned to that level of consistency only twice in the last six years. With four 200 inning pitchers apiece, the White Sox and Tigers got consistent performances out of their best pitchers, which helps for the simple reason that each inning pitched by a good starter is one that does not have to be completed by a lesser replacement. I do not know if there is some demonstrable effect on a defense or a pitcher’s endurance after remaining consistent through the regular season, but these teams’ rates of success seem to indicate that there is even more benefit to keeping pitchers healthy than is readily apparent. The coaching staffs for the teams also deserve credit for getting the most out of their starters without overworking them and keeping them ready throughout the season.

4. Getting some luck by losing their ineffective pitchers to injury and having young starters replace them with greater success. It is a valuable skill to be able to keep your effective players healthy. It is considerably luckier to have the ineffective ones break down. Perhaps Orlando Hernandez and Mike Maroth were hindered by pitching with pain, which would explain some of their struggles. If not, the teams were quite fortunate that they went down, since Brandon McCarthy, Zach Miner (for whom no PECOTA projection even existed in 2006), and Wil Ledezma provided much stronger innings than the men they replaced. It is no surprise that pitching depth is a good thing, and these teams did well to stock up on major league ready talent that did not cost several million dollars to serve as insurance policies.

5. Little regression among older players. While there is a great deal of volatility with younger players, both teams have to be thankful that guys like Jose Contreras and Kenny Rogers did not start feeling the effects of age. El Duque showed some wear and tear, but even he was better than most pitchers in their late thirties (or maybe even mid 40s, who knows).

Ideally, these similarities would provide some sort of formula for projecting future breakouts. Unfortunately, I do not think it is quite so clean as that. A handful of teams have some of the characteristics, but lack some key components. The Phillies have a rotation that goes six deep with breakout candidates at the top in Cole Hamels and Brett Myers. Without any semblance of a defense, though, it is hard to see them impersonating the White Sox and Tigers. The Diamondbacks have a good defense and lots of name pitchers. On the other hand, I do not see Randy Johnson, Doug Davis, and Livan Hernandez all making it through the season healthy. Maybe the best candidate is yet another AL Central team, the Cleveland Indians. With lots of young pitching talent and an improved defense, it would only take some surprises from Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook to change a pretty good unit into an exceptional one.