Christmas in July

For a transaction fiend like me, the anticipation leading up to July 31st is truly more exciting than the few days before Christmas. While I haven’t been a present shaker for years, I cannot help but imagine every derivation of every possible trade for the best players on the market each July. For a long time, I had to do so with an air of detachment, as my favorite team hadn’t the resources nor the cause for a big-name deadline acquisition. These days, however, the Twins are struggling in the midst of a playoff race, and the only question is if Terry Ryan has the panache to complement his rickety waiver wire pickup with a dramatic difference-maker. Just like the days after Thanksgiving, I’ve made a wish list for the trade deadline, but this one includes only the players I would most like to see with the Twins in the next couple of weeks, mindful of the role they would play, salary, opportunity cost and long-term commitment. I also tried to stick to players who have been mentioned in trade talk.

1. Adam Dunn: Sure, there are considerable drawbacks. First, Dunn’s price-tag is higher than almost anyone on the market, and the Reds front-office has spent the season acting like a group of petulant teenagers, holding grudges and initiating a childish power struggle (banning EZ chairs from the locker-room, demoting Austin Kearns). Also, experts have projected Dunn’s arbitration number to go as high as $8MM next season, higher than any Minnesota position player. Some people even argue that his body type will cause an earlier than usual collapse, and that his peculiar skill set will prevent him from being a franchise player.

Lies! Who dares blaspheme the mighty Dunn? To answer the first contention: yes, Cincinnati management has been moody and difficult, but the unpleasantness must be tolerated for such a payoff. The Twins have such organizational depth that they can afford to spin off a few very-goods for one great. Think of a package along the lines of Boof Bonser, J.D. Durbin, Ryan Bowen and a low-minors position player. The Reds get immediate help to their rotation/bullpen and a catcher who is probably better than Jason LaRue right now. With Scott Baker granted Emeritus status among minor league pitchers, Durbin’s health problems become expendable. Bonser is having a breakout season, so his value is at a peak. In return, we get one of the game’s great mashers. Eight million should not be seen as a burden, but a bargain for such a great talent. Think of it as Kris Benson money, or, dare I say, Eric Milton money adjusted for inflation. Either way, he’s worth it. Look beyond the 40 homer seasons and 50 homer potential. Even look beyond the 100+ walks. Courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, look instead to his future forecast. He projects to about 6 wins over replacement level by himself every year for the next five. He has a collapse rate of zero, unheard of for someone only 25 years old, for the next three years. He even projects to improve his EQA (a number that takes into account overall offensive contribution, adjusted to look like batting average) over .320 and as high as .330 for the next five years. He is a young stud who is only approaching his prime.

2. Mike Lowell: While the Twins don’t need an OF/1B like Dunn and would be obliged to squeeze him in, Lowell’s value to the team comes mostly in his ability to play 3B. Mike Cuddyer is approaching never-was status, and his defense has been worse than anyone has mentioned, with a Rate2 of 84 at 3B, meaning he costs the team 16 runs over an average 3B every 100 games, adjusted for league difficulty. Lowell hasn’t been a shining star this season either, but he’s a known quantity who will almost certainly rebound. In five full seasons as a regular, he has never fallen below a .340 OBP, .440 SLG, or a 101 Rate2 defensively. Cuddyer slugged exactly .440 last year in 318 ABs, the closest he has ever come to those numbers. Lowell’s financial commitment- about $7MM for each of the next two years- makes him undesirable to the Marlins, but really is not that bad for a proven commodity just past his prime. He will probably never recapture his peak years during this contract, but he has little chance of continuing the current implosion. The upside is that the Marlins are so willing to shed his salary that he can be had cheaply. They want high-minors pitching, and we have a ton of it.

3. A.J. Burnett: If the Marlins needs line up for Lowell, then they must also line up for Burnett. The Twins would likely part with Lohse in a deal for Burnett, which would make room in the rotation. Just like Jose Jiminez and Eric Milton, Burnett made a name for himself by throwing a no-hitter early in his career. Unlike those other two, he still has a promising future. He has the dual tags of “injury prone” and “uncoachable,” which may have some warrant, but take little away from his nearly 9 K/9, improving walk rate, and electric stuff. He’s a free agent at the end of the year, so there is little financial commitment, but the runs he prevents this year could go a long way toward securing the wild card.

4. Aubrey Huff: Huff, like Lowell, is performing well below his established level of performance, but should steadily improve as the season goes on, and remain at a higher level in the future. He is nearly three full years younger than Lowell, so he is even less likely to be in the midst of a collapse, and, at 28, may still have his career year left in him. Although he has a reputation as a defensive sieve, his career Rate2 at 3B is a very tolerable 96, and he’s been an above average first-baseman. This trade makes a ton of sense to me, but the reason it isn’t higher on the list is that Tampa Bay GM Chuck Lamar is purportedly very hesitant to finalize a deal, fearing that it will ruin his reputation after last year’s Zambrano-for-Kazmir coup. I think Chuck Lamar should worry less about ruining his reputation, as 10 horrendous seasons and a bleak future have already done that.

5. Kevin Youkilis: He’s cheap, young, talented, and plays a position of need for a team that wants to make a deal. The downside here is that Youkilis probably will not be available. I include him on this list more as an alternative to the rumored Bill Mueller swap involving Romero. Analysts were once concerned about Youkilis’s lack of power, but he’s actually flashed more wood since arriving in the majors to go with his Moneyball title as the “Greek god of Walks.” He even has value in the field, posting a stellar 111 Rate2 in 83 games as a major league 3B.


Sock List (presents I don’t really want):

Joe Randa: He’s putting up his best season in years after shifting to a much better hitter’s park. He insists that he is happy in Cincy and doesn’t want to play anywhere else. He’s already 35 years old and showed signs of his natural regression each of the last four years. Forgive me if I’m not all that excited about giving away prospects and placing our post-season hopes in The Joker.

Bill Mueller: Mueller is another player who is past his prime and has inflated statistics from an offense-oriented home park. While he can play third base, he doesn’t really fill a need for the Twins offensively as another decent AVG hitter with little else to offer at this stage in his career. Factor in his achy legs and he doesn’t seem like an exciting option.

Bret Boone: Can the PTBNL in the Bret Boone trade be Bret Boone? Just asking.