Second Half Notes and Wild Card Projections

If the AL playoffs started today, the Red Sox would host the Rangers in a hitter’s-park slugfest and the Yankees would eke out the Wild Card to earn a trip to Jacob’s Field where the Indians would host their first playoff game since 2001. At least that’s how it should be, according to the Adjusted Standings at Baseball Prospectus, which essentially adjust for luck. First order records adjust to the standard Pythagenport run differential winning percentage (using 1.83 as the exponent instead of Bill James’ standard 2). Second order adjustments “fix” the overall runs scored/allowed by setting them in line with a team’s component performance, while third order adjustments take into account strength of schedule. In other words, all else equal, three of the four current playoff spots would go to the wrong teams.

Of course, what’s fair is not always what’s right, and as a Twins fan, I know not to complain about teams finishing above their run differential predictions. With that thought in mind I’d like to take a look at some second half possibilities, and take my own educated guess at who will be playing meaningful games in October.

Minnesota: I spent a lot of breath (figuratively) over the last few days discussing the prospects of the Twins’ starting rotation and infield. To recap, it looks like Joe Mays has performed above what his K and BB rates would indicate, and is due for some regression, especially as the IP pile up on his bionic arm. Johan Santana probably will not stay on the pace of the team’s second best pitcher, and ought to put up a performance more commensurate with being the league’s K leader. The rest of the rotation has performed at a reasonable level, and I won’t predict sweeping changes for any of them barring injury.

As for the infield, read Tuesday’s post where I explain how Boone, Punto and Cuddyer/Rodriguez can save upwards of 20 runs over an infield that includes Rivas, Castro or both. While the “If Gardy would just start X, Y, and Z in the field” mantra has become an ineffectual broken record, it seems as if the organization has started making commitments to the right people. With Morneau currently at the low end of his ability, it is not unrealistic to think that the infield could add enough offense to account for a little more than two full wins in the second half.

The first-half outfield produced Torii Hunter’s mild resurgence, but any backsliding there will likely be offset by small OBP improvements by Stewart and Ford, with Jones picking up some of the SLG slack. I don’t expect any of the four to have drastically different second halves, and should offer a similar offensive contribution.

I mentioned on Monday that Jesse Crain needs to improve his strikeout rate, which I can now statistically reconfirm. He is currently the 5th Hit Luckiest pitcher in the Major Leagues in terms of Batting Average on Balls in Play with opponents hitting a paltry .192 after making contact off of him. However, even if he starts losing his tug-of-war with the laws of physics, the rest of the bullpen can help pick up the slack. Mistaken All-Star Joe Nathan has been mildly Hit Unlucky to the tune of a .305 BABIP while Juan Rincon missed 10 games for his “substance” suspension; both will have more time in high leverage spots than Crain in the second half.

At the break, the Twins are on pace to finish with about 90.5 wins. I think their run prevention pace- 2nd in the AL- is sustainable with Johan’s improved performance offsetting small regressions elsewhere. With the offense contributing a couple more wins, I think an optimistic but reasonable projection could put the twins at 93-69, almost certainly not enough to win the Central for the 4th straight year, but in good WC position.

Cleveland: The neglected competitor from the Central still has not totally sold me, despite having the best component stats in the division. It seemed to me at the season’s outset that most of their key offensive cogs had pretty much maxed out last year. Even though Boone and Blake have been abysmal this season, they have both recovered somewhat in recent weeks and cannot be expected to offer tremendous contributions at their best. I would be shocked by Peralta slugging over .500 all season, or Hafner making a run at a VORP of 80 (currently 44.4). Just like last year, I think Cleveland is a good team, but they have ground to make up, and I don’t see where they can expect that much improvement. They also have to deal with their young players such as Peralta and Sizemore playing a longer season than ever before. Even with their brutal start, they’re on pace to win 86.5 games. I’ll be generous and say 87, but I really don’t see where they are going to get the runs to get to 90+ wins.

Texas: Here’s a good offensive team taking advantage of a great offensive environment (RS park factor of 124) to put themselves among the league leaders in runs scored. Alas, they have the same rub as the Indians: little room for improvement. They have not been especially hard hit by injuries, their best players are playing well (maybe even too well to sustain, at least in Michael Young’s case of .333/.377/.529), and none of their offensive weapons have much room for improvement, save the enigmatic Richard Hidalgo. The main difference between Texas and Cleveland is that Texas has only two decent starting pitchers. The first alienated the entire fan base by beating a 98-pound cameraman and might have to be traded during the pennant race. The second is a rookie, and September can be the cruelest month to rookie starting pitchers. Their place atop the adjusted standings has more to do with the Angels outperforming their component stats than some untold story of Ranger greatness. They’re on pace for 87 wins, but don’t be surprised if that number is more like 82-83 and behind the A’s.

Baltimore: The Orioles have been a fun story, but Buster Olney even saw this one coming. It seemed like their time was pretty much through when Boston first knocked them out of first place. While they’ve shown signs of life by taking three of four from the Red Sox before the break, they’re 17-24 since May 26th and many of their stars are aging and fragile (Mora, Sosa, Lopez, Palmeiro). I like the idea of trading for Burnett, who is capable of putting up a great run, and getting Bedard back will help offset Rodrigo Lopez and Bruce Chen returning to their roles as Rodrigo Lopez and Bruce Chen. However, this team is not as deep or talented as its divisional counterparts, and 10 of their last 13 games fall against New York or Boston. The 87.5 win pace seems too generous here, as well. I would expect something more like 82 and a smile for a winning season.

New York: I saved the team that scares me for last. Since their brutal 11-19 start, they’ve had organizational meetings, a disappointed Joe Torre, questions about what is wrong with Randy Johnson and in-house promotion unlike any in recent memory. All the turmoil has come during a run where they have gone 35-21, winning 62.5% of their games. The $200MM albatross has been pretty dominant since that rocky start, and we can probably expect more additions before the end of July, especially with a Boss still posturing as irate. Their current winning percentage would only get them to 87 wins, but if they win games in the second half at the same rate they have since their early swoon, it gets them to 93.5, and that’s before taking into account their shiny new toys.

I think the division leaders all have a strong grasp on their positions, but Anaheim and Chicago should slide back pretty far. Boston is the only one of the three who I think will improve in the second half, partially because I trust Theo Epstein and Bill James to make a couple of the best late-season moves in baseball. Ultimately, though, I think we’ll have our 3rd straight NY-Bos ALCS.