First Half Notes

The All-Star Break (heretofore ASB, not for convenience, but to placate my ego by repeating my own initials) is a time for reflection. I have never seen journalists as a particularly introspective portion of the population, but the proliferation of “First Half Awards” columns must have some cause. I’ll go with the slow news week as the cause. MLB.tv’s silence drives me crazy, and I don’t have a deadline to meet. As it stands, I don’t have the journalistic merit to subvert custom, so here we go with the 2005 Twins ASB report:

Happiest Surprises:

Carlos Silva: Many viewed Silva’s 2004 as a fluke, with Baseball Prospectus expressing “pessimism” regarding his ability to repeat the success. PECOTA pegged him for a 4.67 ERA and a 23.6 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). Silva has beaten back that projection by reducing an already miniscule BB rate- 35 in 203 IP in ’04- to mid-90s Maddux rate of only 5 BBs in 114 2/3 IP. Indeed, he leaves a lot up to his defense, only striking out 3.22 per 9, but the extra seeing-eye singles don’t hurt as much without the freebies on base. While his HR rate has crept up a bit, it hasn’t approached disturbing levels, and his GB/FB ratio has actually improved from last season (1.68). As for PECOTA? Silva currently sports a 3.53 ERA and a team-leading 27.3 VORP. All told, the Twins mined a dusty Phillies’ reliever and polished him into a gem of a sinkerball pitcher.

Jacque Jones: Admittedly, he’s been a train wreck since early May, but who thought that he would be leading the team in BBs (37) by a comfortable margin at the ASB? I realize that the internet’s depersonalization makes this exercise futile, as I cannot see your response, but if your hand is up, you are a liar. Jones isn’t just looking at more pitches, either, as his K rate has come down a bit. An optimist or a true Jacque Jones fan would say these marks are signs of real improvement in the long-stagnant 30 year old contract-year player. I, however, would readily jettison him at the trade deadline if the right offer came around from a team desperate for a RF who wears his cap slightly askew. If not, I would let him walk at season’s end, plug Ford into RF, start feeding Mike Ryan rocket fuel, and hope Kubel can return as a meaningful contributor.

Luis Rivas: Only because he almost made it to the ASB without eclipsing 100 ABs.

Joe Mays: Two years ago, Mays tried to pitch with an elbow that would not allow him to throw his curveball. The result was an over-reliance on an uninspiring changeup, making him to Brad Radke what Blues Brothers 2000 was to the original Blues Brothers: similar looking at first glance, but really altogether wretched. John Belushi did well to die before associating with either one. PECOTA is stingy when it comes to playing time, especially to players coming off of injuries. Mays has already exceeded his IP projection by 12, and in a much more acceptable fashion than expected. But it all may be a house of cards built over a pile of highly enriched uranium, as his peripherals indicate bad, bad things. His projected 3/2 K/BB ratio has been on the money, as has been the prediction that he would strike out about three batters per nine. With a good-but-not-great GB/FB ratio (1.31), he’s walking a tightrope that will probably snap sometime in the second half.

Biggest Disappointments:

Justin Morneau: Although he is one of my favorite players on the planet, I have to admit that I expected much more this year. I have waited long enough to see a 30 HR season by a Twin, but every time I think someone is a lock, I’m brought back to earth, and it hurts more each time. One would think that a player would be at his worst after taking a beaning in the noggin (all Canadians' heads should be called noggins), but Morneau put up his best numbers after coming off his early DL stint. Through roughly the same playing time that he saw last year, Morneau’s BA and OBP have held steady, but his SLG has dropped precipitously, from .536 to .477. He’s been downright dreadful against lefties to the tune of .235/.261/.318, and has lived up to his reputation as a minus fielder at first. His struggles against LHP aren’t unique for young lefties, though, and if the biggest knock on a 24 year-old masher is that his SLG has come down a bit in his second tour of the league, he’s in pretty good shape going forward.

Mike Cuddyer: Everyone has always loved Cuddyer’s potential. Remember when he was plugged into RF in the 2002 DS against Oakland even though he looked thoroughly lost? His bat was supposed to make him a stud; all he needed was regular playing time. Now that he’s back at third, he has fizzled, losing a full 85 points of his PECOTA projection for SLG, from .467 to .382. He’s been out-VORPed by Luis Rodriguez in 104 PAs, and has done little to relieve the stress on the battered infield. There are two possibilities here: one is that everyone missed the boat; that his minor league track record was dead wrong, and all of the sophisticated projection metrics whiffed. The other is that these 13 weeks have been something of an aberration and he will regress to the mean over time. Maybe he’s not the .850 OPS slugger we thought he was, but he can still be a useful piece in an otherwise shaky infield.

Injuries: It’s hard to pinpoint a player who hasn’t lived up to his performance record this season. Everyone has pretty much been on the pace that he had set for himself in years past, but Gardy has been forced to cobble together lineups that include far too much Castro. Looking back, 48-38 is pretty lucky considering the infielders that have been generating outs for the first half.

Omissions:

Jesse Crain: The wins and the “vulture” tag are fun, but don’t be duped into thinking that K rate is meaningless. In the show, he’s struck out 29 to 23 free passes in his first 68 2/3 IP. Sure, it’s possible that he has undermined mountains of data that suggest the pitcher controls Ks, BBs and HRs but has little control thereafter, in the same way that it’s possible that I could have a successful major league career. Someone needs to talk that Crash Davis out of him. Strikeouts aren’t boring, and even if groundballs are more democratic, I’ll take an fascist Pedro Martinez any day.

Johan Santana: By a hair. Aaron Gleeman recently compared last year’s line to this year’s through 18 starts to show the striking similarity. The main difference is that Santana isn’t coming off of elbow surgery this year. Naturally, he will perform below his optimal level for a while after someone fishes around his inner-arm with a scalpel. No such excuse this time. However, it seems like he has been near dominant throughout his struggles with a little bad luck sprinkled in at inopportune times. I know that cold data will not support this claim, but I’m not going to throw Cy Young under the bus just yet. He’s not what he was in the second half last year, but he’s not what he was in the first half this year either.

With Santana and Cuddyer probably improving and Mays and others falling back, next time I will try to look at exactly how much they can expect to gain or lose and what that will mean in the standings.