And Down the Stretch They Come
NL edition


After covering my AL predictions for the rest of the year, I left the NL today, so I'll move it along and get to the playoffs.

NL East: The Atlanta Braves are always a safe pick, a mantra which I maintained in the offseason despite the loss of last season's patches. I figured Hudson would thirve under Mazzone and Smotlz would contribute enough to give them a solid starting rotation, a good patchwork bullpen and a lineup that Bobby Cox would squeeze every possible run out of. With the reemergence of Smotlz aside, the Braves have had problems everywhere. Larry Jones has been beat up all year, Estrada and Furcal have regressed, and the Jordan/Mondesi corner job failed massively. But I don't think there is a better manager in the game than Bobby Cox. Reading Whitey Herzog's book, I got the impression that a good manager could be worth several wins a year over an average one, but, more importantly, that most managers are actually below average. Nobody teaches proper fielding technique, such as throwing to the forward shoulder of the cutoff man. Dozens of little immeasurable factors pile up over the course of a season, so a team like the Braves should consistently overperform their component parts. I like the idea of picking them to win until they actually lose, and I'm not about to jump ship after two surprising surges and a new crop of studs integrating themselves.

NL Central: Tony LaRussa is another really smart manager, but his job this season has had more to do with managing injuries than strategy or teaching. For all the talk of Chicago's sabotaged season, the Cards have lost time from Rolen, Walker, Lankford, Molina and others, but maintain a huge lead in the division. Their biggest offseason move was to get a lights out ace pitcher in Mulder to help them in the postseason. Mulder has been good, but Chris Carpenter is the one with the inside track to the Cy Young due to his reduced BB rate. Nonetheless, he would not be among my top five choices to start one big game. Probably not my top 10 or 15 either.

NL West: Preseason, I picked the Twins to win the AL Central and the Dodgers to win the NL West, possibly because I'm more optimistic about teams I like. The rest of my divisional picks have stayed the same, but I'm hesitantly going with San Diego in the NL West, even though I believe the Dodgers are the only decent team in the division. The spirit of Hippocrates has struck the Dodgers even harder than the aforementioned NL Central teams, putting virtually every important player on the shelf. Still, it's rare to see an elite team with nobodies surprising everyone to fill holes, like LA has at C, 3B and LF. I think they may have it in them to win the division, but I cannot pick a team winning well under 50% of their games and still far from healthy to overcome a 5 game deficit with less than 50 games to play. San Diego's biggest problem seems to be that they have invested tons of money in players with huge platoon splits. Ramon Hernandez only hits lefties and Brian Giles only hits righties. Klesko loses much of his power against southpaws, and Dave Roberts is one year removed from being the Red Sox Herb Washington.

NL Wild Card: BP's playoff odds report gives the Astros a 49% chance of winning the Wild Card, which confirms my intuitive belief that it's a toss-up between them and the field. They have built their team for the playoffs, with three dominant pitchers (arguably the three most dominant of all time in terms of VORP or Runs Saved) and a so-so offense that can hit for power. Also, the differences between the regular season and the postseason mask some of their holes. They have a relatively weak bench, but teams can't gain a platoon advantage against their best hitter, Lance Berkman, as he's a switch hitter. Also, the bullpen and rotation are top heavy, but they would only have to win 4 of 6 started by Clemens, Pettite and Oswalt while sacrificing the one other game. They almost got there last year without Pettite, one of the best playoff pitchers in baseball through his years in the Bronx. Plus, I don't see them worrying too much about a pitch count for 43 year old Clemens if it comes down to a crucial situation. They probably wouldn't have to use more than Lidge and Wheeler in starts by their big three, putting them in a strong position.

Still, I have a feeling that they aren't as good as they've been for the last couple of months, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs got hot with today's additions of Nomar, Wood and Williamson. They currently stand at 5% odds to make the WC, while I could just as easily imagine Florida or Philly getting red hot and sneaking in (currently 8.4% chance each).

Playoffs: Although I'm ambivalent about Houston the rest of the way, I think they make a dominant playoff team, steamrolling through the Braves thinner pitching staff in the first round and creating an NLCS rematch with the Cards, who should kick San Diego to the curb with their big bats and pitching depth. While the Stros came close to offing the Cards last year before losing Beltran and Kent, I think the addition of Pettite to this year's postseason roster will help make the difference in a short series to carry them to the pennant. Yup, I'm picking a team who has a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs to win the NLCS.

In the AL, Boston has a stronger all-around team than Oakland, and it would be a shame to pick against the best team in the league, even if they don't particularly stand out in this short series. I also expect Anaheim to beat Chicago in the first round, mercifully ending one of the most maddening seasons in my memory with a dominant bullpen and better overall lineup. I get the impression that Boston would feel invincible in the playoffs and dominate the ALCS, winning in 5 games.

That sets the stage for a brilliant send off to one of the greatest pitchers of all time: Roger Clemens pitches game seven in Fenway to retire a champion, playing out the storyline I was convinced would happen last year.