Five Shoulda-Been Deadline Deals
Deadline to be remembered for horseshoes, hand grenades


For weeks before the trade deadline, some particularly insightful analysts suggested that this year's market might end up disappointing to those who want to see blockbusters. Last year's thrilling 31st did even more to make this year's flurry of inactivity particularly unsatisfying. I can't help but thinking that the excessive media coverage has contributed to what I'll call the Rob Babcock phenomenon: the Toronto Raptos had lots of opportunities to trade down to fill in their team's many holes, but the GM was so paralyzed by fear (perhaps of a public backlash) that he did nothing but draft Charlie Villaneuva, ironically causing a public backlash. Or even worse, GMs could face the Paul DePodesta phenomenon, where the GM makes trades that help the team and get them into the playoffs, resulting in an angry media and fan base. No matter what the cause, lots of pretty good deals were left on the table Sunday, and playoff contenders were left with large holes. I have assembled a list of five trades that would have helped playoff contenders.

Minnesota Twins get: Kevin Youkilis, Jose Cruz Jr.
Boston Red Sox get: J.C. Romero
It sounds like this deal came right down to the wire, and may have been completed if time had permitted. The Twins were in the Soriano running until the last hour before the deadline, but when the Rangers declined a trade that looked something like Soriano/Mench/Gonzalez for Liriano/Romero/Boone, Terry Ryan looked back to Theo Epstein to revisit the Romero trade. At this point, Ryan wanted Youkilis instead of Mueller, an indication to me that he has already shifted his focus to next season, as Youkilis is young and will stick around, while Mueller will be gone after the season.

The Red Sox clearly wanted Romero, or some other power lefty out of the pen, and I have explained here before that I think trading the erratic lefty at the peak of his value is a good idea. The Twins' offensive problems won't get better just by virtue of the season ending, so the sooner they address their run scoring issues the better. Youkilis helps fill their massive OBP gap pervasive among Twins not named "Mauer," and he's a young third baseman, which is a position of need. Cruz takes and rakes, plays a decent CF, would help fill the Hunter void reasonably well, and could stick around as a decent fourth or fifth OF option next year. I had forgotten what it was like to be optimistic about next season starting in August, but the feeling isn't all bad.

Florida Marlins get: Damaso Marte, Brandon McCarthy
Chicago White Sox get: A.J. Burnett
I remember Sox GM Kenny Williams once saying something like, "When you're in Chicago, you don't play for next year. Every season is do or die," alluding to their near century-long championship draught. In that respect, I'm surprised the White Sox didn't capitalize on their collective career year and try to make a run. Having played the Seattle Mariners in the 2001 playoffs, they know first hand how easy it is for a fluky regular season to slip down the drain in a short season, and a dominant starter can be particularly valuable in that context.

Florida ultimately help us this deal when they decided that they have a chance to compete for the NL wild card, which is true since Houston is the only contender playing well right now, but the Cubs have been the biggest winners at the deadline, making the prudent Lawton pickup and regaining Wood and Nomar for a little while. With young studs like Cabrera, Beckett and Willis around whom they can build, the Fish should be trying to win 100 games in 2 years, which Marte and McCarthy would workd towards, not 90 games this year.

New York Yankees get: Randy Winn
Seattle Mariners get: What's left of the Yankees' farm system
Jayson Stark reported the day before the deadline that the Yankees still wanted Winn, but intended to put him in LF and move Matsui to CF. I don't understand that decision, as Matsui has struggled in CF and sustained minor injuries every time he has spent several games at a time there. Winn is a little underrated, with a career Rate2 of 101 and enough OBP to make him much better than Crosby or Melky Cabrera.

Obviously the Yankees wanted Winn and Seattle held up the deal, symptomatic of the plague of paralysis perpetrated by many GMs. Bill Bavasi had a high asking price for Eddie Guardado, actually got 2 prospects for Ron Villone, and probably had a pretty high tag on Winn. As Sen. Robert Byrd would say, fie on them. Fie! Winn will be 32 next season, and the Mariners are two or three years from rebuilding their pitching staff enough to be serious contenders. Beltre, Sexson and Ichiro should stay around long enough to see them win again, but Winn is too marginal of a player to bulid around

St. Louis Cardinals get: Austin Kearns
Cincinnati Reds get: ripped off by Walt Jocketty
While John Schuerholz pulled Kyle Farnsworth out of his hat, wheeler-dealer Walt Jocketty was left with a rock, barring a post-deadline move for the second straight year. Reggie Sanders broke his leg, which is supposed to heal quickly but will also require some time off after returning. Larry Walker just had his third Cortisone shot for his back, which is the single-season limit if a player doesn't respond to the first two, as is the case with Walker. With Scott Rolen ailing, the Cards might be left with (gasp!) only two All-Star sluggers for their stretch run. Kearns would have a chance to play everyday spelling the corner OFs, and would provide some pop and speed that would fit nicely in such a productive lineup.

The Reds are probably another seller holding up a trade, as most discussions stopped when Dave O'Brien seemingly asked for each team's top 4 prospects in any deal. Kearns is unhappy in Cincy and just doesn't fit. Depth is good. Logjams can even be good. But hearing Ray Miller on Baseball Prospectus Radio talking about trying to find a way to play four OFs in Cincy three and four years ago made me realize how directionless and random the franchise has been. In that time, Eric Milton has been their biggest pitching acquisition, and they have also put much hope in Paul Wilson and Ramon Ortiz. Trading Kearns for even a couple of middling pitching prospects shows some dedication to moving in the right direction, which they have not done for a long time.

New York Yankees get: Mark Redman
Pittsburgh Pirates get: NOTHING! AND THEY'LL LIKE IT! um... Eric Duncan?
Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina: studs. Chien-Ming Wang and Al Leiter: surprisingly acceptable. Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright and Kevin Brown: sound good enough, but injury prone and below replacement level. Tanyon Sturtze, Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small, Tim Redding, Darrell May, Sean Henn and even whispers of Hideo Nomo: completely unaccpetable. I hate the Yankees, but that doesn't blind me to their weaknesses and opportunities to fix them. If they acquired Winn and Redman, neither of whom will ever be mistaken for a star, I think they would be in good shape to make a run for the World Series. Instead, they are a flawed team with too little defense, a lineup of mashers and out machines, and very little pitching.

The irony would be that Pittsburgh would fulfill last year's goal of pawning off their overvalued SP commodity for a major league ready 3B from NY. Last year they gave away Kris Benson to the Mets for Ty Wigginton, which didn't exactly work out for them, but Duncan is a better prospect than they got back before.

All of those trades are realisitic possibilities that wouldn't have suprised anyone. Instead, we focused on huge blockbusters for Ramirez and Soriano that were too complicated to work. At one point, there was a rumor that Boston would give up Ramirez, Papelbon, Sanchez and another minor leaguer and get back Cameron, Baez and Dunn. That lineup would be a tremendous credit to Epstein's creativity, but I think all of the jabber was intentionally idle, created by the Boston front office to make it look to Ramirez that they had tried to fulfill his wish without ever intending to do so. Boston still looks like the strongest team with the most depth, but they are one of many contenders who could have strengthened their hand by making a deal.