Twins Trade Notes and Check Swings

The newest whispers swirling in the Twins’ rumor mill have to do with the Mays & Romero for Millar & Mueller scenario. Yesterday, I panned the Mueller for Romero possibility, and given my proclivity for avoiding 33 year-old first basemen with a sub-.400 SLG, one may think this only makes the trade worse. But not so fast, as I think this trade could help the Twins given the right accompanying moves.

First, let’s look at what we get. Mueller isn’t thrilling, but he has a high OBP and would be better than Cuddyer at 3B the rest of the year. He has Cuddyer beat in MLVr .063 to -.05. As neither is an offensive stud, the main value would come in Mueller’s glove, since he has been an above average fielder for several years while Cuddyer fields as if he’s made of concrete. Millar is marginally better than Sweet Lew at DH, and could take some ABs from Mourneau against tough lefties or Mariano Rivera.

More important is what the Twins give up, what I see as addition by subtraction. I’ve commented several times on Joe Mays and the regression I expect from him in the second half. Thus far, he’s remained effective despite weak peripherals, but I suspect that Scott Baker would do more good for the rotation for the rest of the year. At very least, he can strike some batters out. Also, Romero has been wildly inconsistent for the last few years. A good few months this year have made us all forget how infuriating he was last summer, necessitating a AAA stint due to complete lack of control. True enough, he’s the best lefty, but Romero, Nathan, Rincon and Crain have all been comparably effective against lefties this year, and there are lots of live arms in the system to fill the hole. Keeping a situational lefty around is not a necessary condition for a successful bullpen, as the Nationals proved this year when Joey Eischen was injured, and the Angels have proven every year since 2002. Finally, just think of Mays and Romero’s value relative to last year when Romero was in the minors and we didn’t know if Mays would ever pitch again.

To summarize, I think this trade is a small upgrade at three positions and a neutral shifting of deck chairs at a fourth. The trade would probably modestly help the Twins’ offense, but not make more than a win or two of difference.

---

Will Carroll reports that Justin Morneau may have blurred vision. It’s surprising that the effects of a concussion could last this long, but the symptoms are consistent with the injury. Maybe some rest time would help him fully recover, but I’m not a medical expert; just a sympathetic former concussed fan. As one would expect, he’s struggling against righties and lefties with possibly bad vision, making him proportionately less effective against both halves of the platoon split. The lesson here is to never underestimate the power of a speeding spheroid to the skull.

---

A little bit further south in the Central division, the “Greinke is the next Maddux” crew seems to have jumped ship after a poor 2/3 of a season from the Royals ace. But Greg Maddux wasn’t always Greg-freaking-Maddux, either. In his first full season, 1987, Maddux went 6-14 with a 5.61 ERA, 101 Ks and 74 BBs in 156.2 IP. So far this year, Greinke has kept pace, going 3-11 with a 5.66 ERA, 65 Ks, 30 BBs in 110.2 IP. Odds are Greinke will never win 300 games, but Maddux went on to win 15+ for the next 17 years and counting after a worse start, so don’t count Greinke out yet.

---

The White Sox are after Billy Wagner to solidify the bullpen with Takatsu DFA’d and Hermanson on the shelf, apparently with a swollen luck gland tightening up his lower back. Wagner is not what he was in Houston, and has become extremely injury prone. For Chicago to commit to his salary would be to commit to their current core of players for several years, which delights me. If Garland, Podsednik, Buehrle, etc are their stars going forward, I will look forward to competing with Detroit and Cleveland for the next several years. Forgive me for discounting this season, but remember, the 2001 Mariners haven’t been very good since, and the organization has collapsed under the weight of commitments made to players having concurrent career years.

---

While on the subject of profound evil and swollen glands, the Great Giambino continues to mash in the Bronx, bombing two more in Texas last night, and keeping my fantasy team afloat. I find that the best way to deal with your worst enemies is to embrace them, especially when they get acclimated to hitting off the juice.