National League Record Projections

Before falling face-first into the National League standings, it is worth noting that Nate Silver released his PECOTA standings today with a similarly conservative tone to my original rankings. There are a few deviations from my AL standings, and I feel like I should justify pegging Tampa for even 73 wins, which seems like irrational exuberance. My interest in the team comes from an innovative manager and a smart front office that should be able to make the little moves during the season that may counteract traditional wisdom but help in the short run (for example, a non-conventional bullpen usage pattern or mixing in young players more liberally than may seem appropriate). I think the re-incorporation of Baldelli, the possible arrival of Delmon Young and a potential rejuvenation of Edwin Jackson could be worth five wins over last year. Maybe they will not reach those “heights” this soon, but the team is on the rise.

NL East

Atlanta 90-72
New York 90-72
Philadelphia 83-79
Washington 73-89
Florida 60-102

NL Central

St. Louis 89-63
Houston 86-76
Milwaukee 84-78
Chicago 80-82
Cincinnati 78-84
Pittsburgh 76-86

NL West

Los Angeles 87-75
San Diego 82-80
San Francisco 80-82
Arizona 79-83
Colorado 70-92

Notes

-Washington, my adopted home team, is on its way down the toilet. A few weeks ago, I would have put them at about 80 wins. Hell, if they had just stopped making moves after the Castilla trade, I think they could go even higher. As it stands, 73 is the high end for their possibilities. The Soriano trade was a well-documented disaster on many, many levels. Brian Lawrence was seriously injured, meaning the Castilla trade can only help by paving the way for the Ryan Zimmerman. And now, he’s demoted Ryan Church, a solid contributor to the city formerly known as New Orleans so Brandon Watson (.268/.311/.314 PECOTA with sub-average defense) can fulfill Frank Robinson’s dreams of sugar-plum leadoff men. Now, as Nate Silver commented, I would not be surprised if the team tanked, people stopped showing up at RFK after the honeymoon wears off, and the loss total goes above 100.

-I’m just not picking against Atlanta. I just won’t. Maybe New York is a better pick, and maybe Philadelphia is even tough enough to give them a run, with Pat Gillick challenging Jon Schuerholz in the category of regular season GM moxie. I know that Cal Ripken eventually sat out and Joe Dimaggio eventually had an oh-fer. But you don’t go into game 57 picking him to whiff; it’s just not a good bargain. More directly, I think there is a real performative value in having Bobby Cox at the helm, and I expect big seasons from Chipper and Marucs Giles to go with continued breakouts from McCann and Francouer. And the Mets are not without flaws: second base is hardly resolved and their fragile pitching staff is thinner than it ought to be. Exiling Kris Benson and Jae Seo leaves them with a perplexing Pedro, an old Steve Trachsel, an older Tom Glavine, a frustrating Victor Zambrano and a rookie. Aaron Heilman, the only one of the group I think stands to actually exceed expectations, and he is the only glue that is supposed to hold it all together. If the team only has one injured pitcher at a time all year, they will be lucky, and the stronger bullpen is not enough to compensate.

-I thought Houston was going in the tank last year and I was dead wrong. Their situation isn’t much different this year, unless Clemens really stays on the sideline, but even without him I think replacing Bagwell gives enough of an offensive boost to an already decent team. Without Rocket, 86 wins is a bit high, but they could be in a much worse position.

-The West is another crapshoot. The question isn’t whether the Dodgers will stay healthy, it is who will be hurt when and for how long. I see J.D. Drew and Rafael Furcal being the guys who have to really stay healthy, Drew because he’s their best offensive player and Furcal because he is more difficult to replace and even modest injuries kill his value. Arizona could be worse, but as a whole, none of these teams seem like legitimate contenders even once one of them makes the playoffs.

And before I lose you, here are my playoff projections:

Divisional Round:
A’s defeat Red Sox
Yankees defeat Indians

Braves defeat Dodgers
Mets defeat Cardinals

League Championships:
A’s defeat Yankees
Braves defeat Mets

World Series:
A’s defeat Braves in five games.

American League Record Projections

AL West

Oakland 91-71
Los Angeles of Anaheim 84-78
Texas 83-79
Seattle 71-91

AL Central

Cleveland 89-73
Chicago 87-75
Minnesota 82-80
Detroit 78-84
Kansas City 66-96

AL East

New York 90-72
Boston 88-74
Toronto 84-78
Tampa 73-81
Baltimore 72-90

Notes

-As we saw with Chicago last year, a few good breaks can bring a team far above or below what anyone previously saw as a reasonable projection. Additionally, teams that win or lose close to 100 games usually have some unforeseen luck on their sides (few injuries, unexpected breakouts, a record incommensurate with run differential), so more modest projections are usually smarter ones. In this case, I think there are four teams in the American League who could conceivably push 100 wins, including Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, New York and Boston. However, at least one of those teams will have some bad luck and at least one will have some good luck, meaning that these five teams projected within a seven game range will probably have something closer to a 20 game range by the end of the season. The same applies to the bottom end, although you will notice that I picked Kansas City to lose five more games than I have any team winning or losing (a testament to the team’s low potential). Generally, it seems that people want to be generous when making projections for teams, whether they figure to be on the low end or the high end of the divisional standings. This theory certainly holds true through the rosy glasses of local media, but I think it extends further than that. If it looks odd that I have the Orioles winning only 72 games, keep in mind that they did little to fix the problems that made them a 74 win team last year, and they’re even older than they were before. I would rather pick every team to win 5 more games and take credit for predicting breakouts, but as it stands, I have the AL performing a total of three games above .500, which brings me to my next comment.

-…which deals with the general superiority of the American League. Consider some of the major player movements of the off-season: A.J. Burnett goes from NL to AL, Jeff Weaver from NL to AL, Jim Thome, Luis Castillo, Josh Beckett, Troy Glaus, Javier Vazquez, Esteban Loaiza. In Jim Baker’s article, he points out that the average projected VORP of transient pitchers going from the NL to AL is 28.0 while the average going the other way is 8.8. For a league that has won the World Series only twice in the last eight years, that kind of attrition doesn’t make for very good prospects. Not only are the worst of the AL generally better than the worst of the NL, most serious title contenders come from the AL too. More on this issue tomorrow.

-After last year’s World Series victory, Kenny Williams said that he didn’t think his team had gained enough respect to get picked to win the AL Central in 2006. As much as I feel a responsibility to at least pick the defending champs to make it back to the postseason, I cannot bring myself to do so. Since run differential is a better predictor of future performance than a team’s record, Chicago has to overcome a two game deficit from last year. Did they improve more than Cleveland? They certainly got two good players in Thome and Vazquez, but they have to replace a pretty solid level of performance they got from McCarthy/Hernandez and Rowand (at least defensively). They also acquired quite a bit of risk in Thome’s back and whatever noise Vazquez had going on in his arm when he was with the Yankees. Cleveland, meanwhile, benefits from getting a full season out of Sizemore and Peralta to go with the underrated Jason Michaels in left. And while neither Paul Byrd nor Jason Johnson is Kevin Millwood, they should be able to approximate the difference between Millwood and Elarton who they will combine to replace. I’m a little concerned about Cleveland’s bullpen, which lost Arthur Rhodes and Dave Riske, but with Minnesota and Detroit as legitimate threats, Chicago is hardly a safe pick to win the division.

-The one team who could seriously embarrass me on this list is Seattle. I’m not very high on the rotation other than King Felix, but there is some upside here. (Into Gammons mode) If Felix is even better than we all anticipate, putting up Cy Young contending numbers. If Kenji Jojima is better than expected and provides 3-4 more wins behind the plate than the sludge he replaces. If Adrian Beltre magically channels his pre-steroid testing, walk year bat. If Ichiro defies the aging process and hits above .350. If Jose Lopez has a side order of bat with his main dish of glove. And if Jamie Moyer, Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro all have something approximating career years, then the Mariners could blow right past 80 wins on their way almost 90. But that likelihood is diminishingly small, especially in the best division in baseball.

In Like a Lion
Radke’s Early Struggles

Brad Radke’s career with the Minnesota Twins has been more consistent than a few Swiss clocks. He has suffered occasional injuries and had a few spikes, like 20 wins in 1997. But for the most part you can pencil Radke in for about 32 starts, an ERA around 4.00, 210 IP, 130 Ks and 35 BBs. Excluding the two years where he made less than 30 starts- one season due to injury, the other during his rookie year-, he has stayed between 3.48-4.49 in ERA for eleven years. The only noticeable change has been a gradual improvement in K/BB ratio due to diminishing BB rate. Not all elements of consistency are so desirable, though, like Radke’s inability to get through the first inning with a lead. Is there any statistical proof backing up every Twins’ fan’s anecdotal understanding that Radke struggles early in the game? That’s what I’m here to find out.

First of all, Radke’s three-year numbers include an .860 OPS-against during the first inning of games compared to a .736 cumulative OPS-against, which seemingly answers the question by itself. In terms of pitch count, Radke’s worst 15-pitch segment is 1-15, where he gives up a .844 OPS-against. For comparison, his next segment, pitches 16-30, sees him improving to a .759 OPS-against, all the way down to .641 for pitches 61-75, which is his best segment. Most of the difference comes from his strikeout rate, which stands at 10.5% of all batters faced, as opposed to 19.1% in his second segment and 16.1% during his best segment. His walk rates do not change appreciably and his homerun rates remain shaky across the board, so it is safe to say that most of the damage is done by extra balls in play. His opponents’ ISO has a similar trend, dropping from a highpoint of .227 early in the game to .185 in the following segment, bottoming out at .168 in his strongest part. To illustrate, here is a line graph indicating how batters tended to hit Radke at a better rate earlier in games.




That seems to confirm the hypothesis, but it doesn't answer the whole question; is Radke really that much worse earlier in games and why? The lower K-rates coupled with higher batting averages and isolated power rates indicate that Radke preserves his pinpoint control, but less movement or command, making his pitches easy to hit and hit hard, like dead ducks over the plate. Recall the discussion of pitchers during spring training: early on, pitchers need to work out their arms to get command of their pitches and they often get the Jose Lima treatment at the outset. Similarly, April is Radke’s cruelest month, where he is 5-8 with a 5.59 ERA in his last 16 starts. Again, hitters do not walk more, but miss less and hit for more power when they do make contact, more evidence that Radke has trouble getting loose or working out the kinks.

The spring training example sheds more light on the situation, though, as Radke is among the legions of pitchers who struggle off the bat (figuratively and literally). Considering the time-honored tradition of starting slowly, Radke is probably not alone in his early season struggles. Here is a graph of Radke, Johan Santana and Radke’s top-comp Esteban Loaiza in terms of ERA by month.


Well, the conventional wisdom that pitchers tire over the season seems to win out over the contradictory conventional wisdom that pitcher’s need time to round into form. How about OPS by pitch count, you ask?


This one makes Radke’s problems look less dire. Santana’s OPS-against on pitches 1-15 is even further from his own cumulative average. Loaiza shows a similar trend. So our conclusions should be twofold: first, Radke’s early-game struggles are overstated. Even though he does pitch poorly in his first fifteen pitches, other pitchers do too as hitters seem to come out better than pitchers (which is consistent with a wider data set I examined but did not include in the graphs). Second, Radke’s real problem is how he starts the season. Giving up 19 HRs in 98 IP over the last three Aprils is a real problem for a team trying to get off to a good start, especially now that they need to reestablish themselves in the division. Here’s hoping he finds a way to channel Santana’s sick Augusts, where he is 14-1 with a 1.52 ERA in his last 18 starts.

Layover in Detroit
March 7th- Mexico versus United States
USA 2 MEX 0 @ Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

My anticipation of the World Baseball Classic waxed and waned from its inception until it commencement. At first, a worldwide tournament seemed like a great way to get more baseball into the schedule and from a different approach. Once the details came down the pipeline, it was obvious there would be flaws in the tournament’s design; many players cannot play at their best in early March, pitch counts diminish the role of an individual pitcher while the injury risk for any player remains present, and the threat of losing some of the best players jeopardized the tournament’s claim to being a true world championship. Still, when I found out that I would be in Arizona for the first round of games, I was thrilled. As a baseball fan more than a nationalist, my most anticipated matchups included the Dominican Republic’s huge bats, Venezuela’s star-studded pitching staff, Japan’s bunch of seasoned professionals and Cuba’s enigma.

The United States, built largely around some of the most loathsome players in the game- from mercenaries like A-Rod and Damon to wickedness personified in Clemens and Jeter-, seemed like a tough pill to swallow. Not that I particularly care for the Mexican team, but the contrarian in me wanted to defy these Yankee barnstormers and root for anyone who might knock them off. I left for the stadium not knowing which team would win me over once the first pitch was thrown and looking forward to the game itself more than any particular allegiance.

Upon arrival at the stadium, I was surprised to see how an institution in its infancy had excited so many fans. In Phoenix, a city with a large Mexican-American population, the area surrounding the ex-BOB was engulfed in a sea of green and red jerseys and face paint. As a country whose best sports include golf and softball, I don’t think Americans quite knew how to become so unapologetically partisan and enthusiastic. Tournament organizers did well to engage soccer and cricket friendly populations not only for marketing purposes but for setting the tone of the tournament, as excitement rubbed off. By the end of the game, middle-aged women in funny perms and high-cut jeans happily joined in “USA” chants, and not the condescending sort of semi-xenophobic nationalism that I’ve seen at pro wrestling and other such events, but a properly motivated pride in the country’s baseball chops. More than anything else, I will remember the festival atmosphere of the game and the reverence of players and fans alike. Moreover, I think the way the importance of the tournament has already taken hold bodes well for the future, as players and fans will feed off of one another for subsequent WBCs.

Game Notes

*One of the things that most exited me about this game had nothing to do with the game itself, but the fact that I would get to cross another stadium off of my list- one I had wanted to see for quite some time. When the BOB opened in 1998, it seemed like a futuristic baseball palace with amenities befitting its location in the retirement capital of North America. Although I did not take the full tour, I have to say I was quite disappointed by the stadium. While everything looks good on paper- excellent sightlines, comfortable seats, scoreboards that are useful but not overwhelming, some manufactured aesthetic charm- it comes together as mechanical and bland. The stadium itself is so grand that the field seems like something of a sideshow, an effect I felt in Seattle, although to a much lesser degree. In any quantifiable way, Chase Field far outdoes older stadiums like RFK and the Metrodome, but it lacks the comfort and kitsch to overcome the personal connections I have with the other two. Overall, I’d grade the stadium something like a C+, high on concept but without enhancing baseball in any way.

*It seems important to note that the game flew by, taking just over two hours from first pitch to last. With the already festive nature of the crowd, the fast-moving and defense-heavy game lent itself to fans celebrating rather than paying attention to the game in intricate detail. I doubt that any type of game would have transformed the party atmosphere to one commensurate with our understanding of a baseball crowd, but it was peculiar nonetheless. One group sitting in front of me spent three full innings in the obscenely long concessions lines, missing much of the game but probably not losing out on much of the experience. The ongoing party at nearby bars and restaurants before and after the game testifies to the game’s role as part of a larger festival rather than the end-all of the WBC.

*Mike Timlin got the win in the game, but Jake Peavy was the pitcher who stood out most for the U.S., and his performance was more memorable than the six relievers only because he pitched three times more innings. The closer-heavy U.S. bullpen seems like the way to go early in the spring because most pitchers are not confident in their ability to neither stay healthy nor execute when throwing heavy breaking balls. Anyone who saw any of Johan Santan’s start against the DR saw how much effectiveness he lost by staying away from his slider and relying heavily on a changeup that is not itself in great shape as of yet. In other words, if the tournament must stay in March, pitchers who get hitters out with fastballs will have a sizeable advantage. Additionally, if some pitchers have already rounded into mid-season form from playing winter ball or having extra time to train before the tournament, they will succeed by catching hitters off guard with anything that shows good movement.

March 5th- Seattle at San Diego
Chargers 13 Seahawks 7 @ Peoria, AZ

Recently, I commented how spring training shrinks players from larger-than-life to real human specimens. After a brief encounter with Jon Daniels at Rangers camp, it was apparent that there’s nothing large about that GM except his set of people skills. Today, I had the opportunity to meet with Kevin Towers of the Padres and Bill Bavasi of the Mariners along with about 25 others for almost two hours. I was surprised to see just how approachable and frank both of them were regarding their players, other teams and their philosophies on the game. Just like players are not mechanical athletes, the GMs seemed like regular guys who know a lot about baseball. They were happy to chatter about projections for other teams, transactions and strategies as the time flew by quickly. I conspicuously asked about three times more questions than anyone else, fascinated through the whole conversation, learning a tremendous amount in a short time. I will try to weave some of their input into my review of today’s game.

Mariners Notes

*When I asked about injury considerations, Bavasi said a couple of things that were interesting. He reiterated the commonly held belief that pitchers will get injured more easily- a fact that his organization knows all too well. Probably more interestingly, he said that physicals and medical reports do not tell the whole story. I specifically asked whether the Padres had an idea of whether Brian Lawrence was about to turn into the Venus de Milo when Towers shipped him to Washington, and Bavasi said that no teams get much of an advantage over others in terms of evaluating medical reports since the dissemination of information is so level. As a result, many teams rely on reverse engineered medical opinions, looking at playing time and performance to determine whether a player has started to decline. So when we watch baseball games, commenting that it looks like a player is playing hurt, we aren’t so far off of a professional evaluation. Furthermore, he talked about the skill of playing hurt, using the example of bringing Tony Phillips to Anaheim when he was on their staff partially with the intent of teaching Jim Edmonds how to successfully play hurt.

*Bavasi, unlike Towers, spent very little time talking about his team’s specific pickups. I would have liked to hear what he had to say about signing Jarrod Washburn, since I do not understand where his bloated contract gets the team. Washburn started today, giving up one run in two innings and looking decent enough. Bavasi seemed more interested in talking about Jesse Foppert’s performance the day before, as he looked good in another game where the team gave up more than ten runs. He pointed out that a successful Foppert would not only push Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro at the back end of the rotation, but would give them more bullpen flexibility. Even if he has a great season, I’m skeptical about how much it would mean for the team as a whole.

*As opposed to some other GMs, Bavasi takes a completely hands-off approach to the amateur draft, instead letting his scouts and player development staff earn their money. He has a background in development in Anaheim, so it surprises me that he would remove himself from the process. Perhaps coincidentally, their minor league system is absolutely full of foreign-born players, especially at the higher levels. I have to compliment their scouting efforts on that front, but Bavasi puts a lot of stock in the draft- he even said the team shied away from Kevin Millwood because he would have cost a first-round draft pick.

Padres Notes

*While Bavasi seemed like a good enough baseball guy, Kevin Towers seemed like a brilliant engineer who will continue to mix scouting and performance analysis to make a good team. He recognizes the shortcomings of his own players, commenting on how he looks forward to Chan Ho Park coming off the books after the season and responding to a question about Mike Piazza’s arm by saying, “Of course I’m concerned about it; I just watched him throw in practice.” As a former scout, he brings in his own perspective on players, preferring to watch them to see if they can do things that matter in games. He doesn’t believe in stop watches or radar guns, but understands that stealing a base has to do with more than just sprinting. Statistical analysis first became interesting to him due to the success of Rickey Henderson when he was in the lineup. Even though Tony Gwynn was batting .100 points higher than Henderson, Rickey’s OBP was some .080 points better and he was scoring more runs and producing more offensively. Add in the influence of Eddie and Theo Epstein in recent years, a keen understanding of park factors, a willingness to admit failure and a lifetime of baseball experience and Towers is the rare hybrid that so many GMs strive to be.

*In evaluating pitchers, Towers says he is more interested in command of the fastball and changeup than anything else. He believes that pitchers who cannot control their fastballs usually face an uphill battle and that the organization can teach breaking pitches along the way. With that in mind, the Padres traded for Dewon Brazelton, Tampa’s busted prospect, and he started today’s game. Brazelton looked fine for two innings, but that may well have been an effect of Seattle’s weak offense that generated only a handful of hits in the first eight innings before coming around in the ninth. Look for Brazelton to be part of the next wave of Padres pitchers in 2007 after Park and Woody Williams leave town. He’s still young enough to have a successful career as a starter if handled correctly.

*Another one of my questions had to do with what the GM looks for in spring training. The big stars and established players have to get back into the groove more than anything else, but the Cactus League is the turf where the fringe battles get fought. Both GMs agree that making less important decisions in March is usually a predictor of future success, but both also have crucial decisions to make at multiple positions. One of San Diego’s biggest battles is the one for the second base job, where Towers will choose between Mark Bellhorn and Josh Barfield. Both played today and both did an excellent job, Bellhorn blasting a two-run homer to tie the game at three in the bottom of the fifth and Barfield driving in four on two doubles. Neither one will be an All-Star this season, but I’m concerned with Bellhorn’s career path, as his walk totals may start to erode if pitchers no longer fear him as a hitter. Petco will make it harder for him to go deep, possibly forecasting that exact type of future.

March 4th- Oakland at Milwaukee
MIL 9 OAK 4 @ Maryville, AZ

A third day in the sun has me seeing some small changes. My pale skin has taken on a little color, unfortunately that color is bright red. My attention span has grown a little longer, but most importantly, I am starting to get an idea of what is important in these early games. Pitchers do not need to be sharp- regaining the ability to locate is success in itself. Fielders may bobble balls here and there, but even now, range and arm strength come across clearly. We can expect young hitters to press a little, but those who can control at bats have a huge advantage. With these considerations in mind, I take you through some of my takeaways from the Brewers win over the A’s.

A’s Notes

*The primary attraction of today’s game was the nominal pitching matchup. In a pennant race, Barry Zito versus Ben Sheets would be the type of tete-a-tete that even the casual baseball fan would consider before clicking over to American Idol. Spring Training is a different story, with pitchers throwing straight stuff for a couple of innings before running some sets of foul poles in the late innings. Today was no exception, with Zito coming out flat and allowing a big homerun to Rickie Weeks in the top of the first. The biggest highlight was breaking off a big 0-2 bender against Ben Sheets that started over the plate and dove down to his ankles as he hopelessly flailed to end the inning. Everyone in the park knew what was coming- as is usually the case with Zito, an ace with a reliever’s arsenal- on the heels of two four-seamers. Sheets had possibly never seen Zito’s curve before, and had seen it only a handful of times at most. It was a thing of beauty for any baseball fan.

*Billy Beane’s approach to building a team has clearly become more refined from the early days where he accumulated everyone he could find who drew walks. Of course the walk is extremely valuable offensively, but it should come if there is no good pitch to hit in the at bat, not as a desired outcome. Fouling off good pitches in order to prolong a plate appearance in search of a walk is obviously foolish, and the A’s have started to include the “rake” component of “take ‘n’ rake.” The top of today’s order bears out this point perfectly.

Mark Ellis lead off the game, working the count against a slightly out of rhythm Ben Sheets, eventually drawing a walk and scoring. His next AB ended in a single, and his third and final one saw him get ahead in the count before yanking a fastball to the LF gap for a triple and another run. Number two hitter Mark Kotsay had an even more fruitful at bat in the fifth inning. With a runner on third, Kotsay got down 1-2 after a pair of foul balls and started protecting the strike zone. He fouled one straight back, then another. Next he confidently took a heater one ball’s diameter above belt height. A chopper into the first base dugout, another popup straight back. After the AB had reached 14 pitches, Kotsay jokingly gestured to manager Ken Macha that he wanted out for a pinch hitter. He blooped the next pitch, a fastball on the hands, into CF for an RBI single, after which Charles Thomas indeed replaced Kotsay. With a pedestrian lineup of journeymen at the bottom of the order, the discipline of Kotsay and Ellis played an important role in cultivating Oakland’s four runs.

*Oakland’s bullpen also has a unique construction. Jay Witasick and Juan Cruz saw action today with Witasick getting beat like a rented mule and Cruz looking sharp with plenty of pop in the cannon. Add Kiko Calero, Joe Kennedy, Chad Gaudin, Kirk Saarloos and Justin Duchscherer to that mix, and the A’s have a bullpen full of swingmen. That’s a sort of simple math that adds to the team’s versatility: if a pitcher can pitch only one inning, we call him a setup man or a closer, but if a pitcher can pitch four or five innings when asked, then why can’t he also succeed for one inning? No reason, really, and the A’s are set to give their best arms more days of rest by relying on relievers for more than one inning, or less, at a time. Since several of these relievers have already proved their chops as short-outing guys- Calero and Duchscherer in Oakland and Cruz in Atlanta two years ago- so their design only enhances their flexibility.

*I recently mentioned to Todd Linden’s struggles in LF, partially due to the sun. To be fair, I should mention that Bobby Kielty had similar troubles with the sun in the same position of the same field today, so Linden’s problems may have been as much a product of positioning as anticipation.

Brewers Notes

*As mentioned earlier, Ben Sheets did not look like a star on this day. He’s a tremendous pitcher with raw stuff to match his impressive statistical profile, but I was disappointed that my first exposure was to a stiff-looking assortment of four-seam fastballs. I can’t blame a pitcher for starting slow; it is probably the only way to work into game shape. Still, it can’t help but put a chink in his armor in my mind to see him overwhelmed by several reserves.

*The most exciting moment of the day came in the bottom of the seventh with the Brewers leading 7-4. Nelson Cruz had spent the whole game in LF, receiving a pretty generous chance to state his case for the fifth OF job once the team breaks camp, and I was thinking of just how little he had done to impress in the game. Right in step, Cruz blasted a HR to left field. It wasn’t the only homerun of the day, and it should not be that surprising that a player with solid power like Cruz is able to hit a spring training round tripper, but this shot may have been the most titanic of any homer I have ever seen. The spring training stadiums are built without bleachers in the OF, instead featuring forty-five degree hills sloping upward so fans can buy cheaper lawn seats. Cruz hit a ball that cleared the LF lawn on the fly, hitting a brick wall some 50-75 feet past the wall, straight up the hill. Some fans sitting around me conjectured that it had flown anywhere from 450 to 510 feet, but no official length was announced. A modest estimate would put it at 450 feet or more.

*Milwaukee mixed and matched their starting lineup from the one I saw two days before, sliding Bill Hall to short to replace J.J. Hardy and starting Corey Koskie at third. Instead of Prince Fielder, Corey Hart moved from LF to first giving them a look at some other OFs. Assuming Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Koskie, Lee, Clark and Jenkins make up the everyday positional alignment, the presence of Hall and Hart gives the team tremendous versatility. Hall makes a superb backup at second, third or short, while Hart can play the OF corners and first well enough. Backing up seven positions with two very strong players allows them to fill in holes with an eye on specific needs. While some teams carry an extra SS for defensive purposes or a backup first baseman who can hit well, Milwaukee can get a speedster for specific situations or an extra lefty pinch hitter. Think these things don’t matter? Ask the Red Sox and Dave Roberts.

March 3rd- Texas at Kansas City
KC 7 TEX 6 @ Surprise, AZ

Part of my passion for baseball, perhaps the impetus for it, has to do with the experience of visiting a Major League ballpark. The term “game” does not adequately describe the feeling, nor does a box score convey the multiplicity of unique happenings, much as I adore the statistical bent. For one, the very aura of a ballpark’s fresh grass, expansive layers and team identification places it squarely between the material and the sacred in a hierarchical ranking system. Religious? Probably not, but for those who buy into the distinction between the spiritual and the religious, I believe the baseball stadium lives up to at least one description.

My experience in minor league stadiums has been qualitatively different. The awe and splendor gives way to familiarity and accessibility. Not that I like paying $6 for a bucket of popcorn, but even such mundane commercialism calls forth an air of great importance. Such proximity transforms transcendent athletes into humans, full of shortcomings like each of us in the bleachers. Small bobbles, grunts of exertion and frustrated expressions differentiate these part-time athletes from the mechanical automatons who we only see from section 300 and higher.

An unexpected result of my sojourn to the Cactus League has been the humanization of the Major League player, once my idol, but a line on a spreadsheet of late. Projection matrices keep me interested for hours and make for an interesting backdrop against which to study statistics in general. But what of this personal element? Certainly, I’m not to be surprised that Brad Wilkerson has tremendous skill supporting his analyst-friendly stat line, but hearing him express an earnest interest in Kentucky high school baseball with a fan goes beyond my initial set of associations with the player. Whenever I though of David Delucci in the past, my train of thought usually went through “injury prone” and “draws walks,” but never included “genuinely nice to toddlers seeking autographs and pictures.” I realize that these comments seem to place the athletes back on a pedestal, but I mean to do exactly the opposite. Aside from having a rare and valuable skill, each one spends a great deal of time away from the diamond, living a unique life with challenges, successes and especially failure that we usually do not consider. My experience in this relaxed context has made me believe that the stadium itself- along with television and other media that put distance between the player and the fan- is responsible for deepening the schism, dehumanizing the athlete. Much as I love the atmosphere of the stadium, it lends a false presence of superiority. The experience of the Cactus League has rechecked my impressions and reconnected me to part of the game I had ignored for years.

Royals Notes

*While games in early March do not necessitate contributions from a team’s stars, the need to use many veteran scrubs is a foreboding signal. Joe McEwing, Wilson Valdez, Rey Sanchez, Esteban German and Mark Grudzielanek have all landed in Royals camp with all but the last appearing in today’s game. Valdez played a solid first base and hit an important two-run HR, but his performance in the short-term is beside the point. A good team may survive with one of these types as a 25th man, but at least one- Grudzielanek- appears to be in line for a starting job with another coming off of the bench. Moreover, the apparent open tryout in Surprise indicates that Royals brass sees the final decision as an important one. For a team who will struggle to win more than 70 games, there are larger issues on the table, and choosing between interchangeably useless spare parts will not amount to much of a difference.

*If I had to choose a player of the game, I would lean towards Mitch Maier, a slick-fielding 24 year-old OF prospect who is a couple years from playing time. Maier entered the game in the seventh with the score tied 3-3. He made a very nice sliding catch in RF on the one hard-hit ball that Ambroix Burgos gave up in a strong inning of work. Next, he led off the bottom of the inning with a sharp liner that hooked around the first-base bag. As he approached second, he correctly judged it wise to test the arm of the Nth string right-fielder with a number barely under triple digits, easily gliding into third. He scored the go-ahead run later in the inning that would keep them in the lead the rest of the afternoon.

Rangers Notes

*Coming into the game, I had heard rave reviews of Phil Nevin from Peter Gammons, from Sportscenter commentary and from the general buzz around Rangers camp that morning. Apparently, he was disappointed with his performance the previous season and wanted to improve his dedication and conditioning, showing up in camp in better shape than any recent season. Sure enough, he bombed several 400 footers in batting practice, getting my hopes up for game time. Luckily, a lineup that included mostly backups also included Nevin and Ian Kinsler, two of Texas’ more intriguing players. Nevin batted fourth, right behind fellow DH candidate Erubiel Durazo, who had singled, and launched a bad pitch well over the LF fence for his second HR and third hit in three plate appearances. He left the game shortly thereafter, but remained the topic of fan chatter the rest of the afternoon.

*D’Angelo Jiminez started at SS and showed off a good glove and a strong arm. He is not nearly as strong as J.J. Hardy, about whom I raved recently, but he gives the Rangers a good defensive replacement for Mike Yount and an alternative to unproven Ian Kinsler at second. He won’t be a star, but Jiminez is the type of bench player who serves multiple purposes, which is several more than the KC’s slag heap.

*The Rangers used Brian Shouse and Scott Sullivan in back-to-back innings, giving me an opportunity to watch two sidearm pitchers warm up in the pen. I have always had a perverse interest in side-arm and submarine pitchers, and it was fun to see the movement up close. As the numbers indicate, it seems almost impossible for a same-handed batter to hit their breaking balls, both of which move away from the hitter at first before bearing back in on the hands at the very end. Either one could succeed as a ROOGY or a LOOGY, but the game demonstrated how easily an opposite handed batter can hit them when they can see exactly what is coming very early in the windup.

March 2nd- San Francisco at Milwaukee
SF 10 MIL 5 @ Maryville, AZ

In my first spring training game of the trip, I hoped to see San Francisco’s old guard against Milwaukee’s youth, but with Barry Bonds, Moises Alou, Jason Schmidt, Matt Morris and Armando Benitez declining to make the trip south from Scottsdale to Maryville, the matchup lost some of its luster. In each squad’s 2006 debut, the fielding was predictably sloppy, and the Brewers pitchers especially struggle to keep the ball down. Manhattan’s last ball club took advantage of more mistakes, hitting two HRs and bunches of line-drives and eventually pulling away on a picturesque afternoon in the desert.

Giants Notes

*In his first plate appearance after signing a $23 mil deal, Randy Winn took Chris Capuano deep to left with a howling shot that never elevated high off the ground, but defied gravity for nearly 400 feet. Although such a large contract for Winn is probably unwarranted, his ability to play CF and this year’s inflated market make reasonable excuses. Brian Sabean’s veteran-tinted glasses make 32-year old Winn look like a teenager, and I cannot blame him based on Winn’s conditioning and work ethic, but he will be another albatross when he’s making $8 million for a 65-70 win team once Bonds retires.

*At 26, Todd Linden may not be ready for full-time duty. He projects to hit only .254, but his back-to-back butcher jobs in LF speak louder. In the third inning, he lost a deep but lazy fly in the sun despite his sunglasses. He shielded himself from getting hit while the ball bounced over the fence for a ground rule double leaving two in scoring position. On the next play, a one-hop line drive ate him up, bouncing all the way to the wall and allowing both runs to score. The opening-day generosity of the scorers gave Linden only one error, but all three runs in the inning were largely his responsibility.

To his credit, the Giants are high on Linden’s skills at the plate. He projects to hit for some power in time, but bullpen coach Mark Gardener and Tim Worrell both said he has already shown the most complete set of batting skills of anyone on the team. As if on cue, Linden took a fastball away to right field for his first of two opposite field hits of the afternoon. Take the pitchers’ hitting analysis with a grain of salt, though, as they praised Mike Matheny’s bit 2005 at the plate just moments later.

*The Giants notoriously work the free agent market at the expense of their farm system, giving up picks on purpose every year to avoid paying minor league signing bonuses. The downside is that their system does not produce top-flight talent, which was abundantly clear in this game. While Milwaukee could produce a long list of major league ready talent from their own system including Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Corey Hart and a handful of others, the Giants trotted out a laundry list of “whodats?” Linden started with first baseman Lance Niekro and their pitching corps includes stud prospect Matt Cain alongside Brad Hennessy and Noah Lowry- who already has 19 ML wins- but their stock of cheap talent runs dry pretty quickly. That’s another ominous sign for the post-Bonds era.

Brewers Notes

*I witnessed a rare occurrence today that few before me have had the opportunity to experience. Dave Sveum, late of the Boston Red Sox, joined the Brewers as their third base coach this offseason, brining his famous wave-em-all style to the Midwest. In the third inning of today’s game, with his team trailing 1-0, Sveum had an opportunity to wave a runner home, but he put up the stop sign. And here’s the kicker: it looked like he could have scored. I felt like I had seen Hank Aaron’s #716 or Jordan sinking his jumper over Ehlo. It was a truly special moment.

*J.J. Hardy has an amazing arm at shortstop. Certain skills do not transfer as well to the television, like seeing the late movement on a pitch. I remember the first time I saw Roger Clemens in person; I was constantly impressed with the sound his fastball made in the catcher’s glove. Hardy’s arm from deep in the hole had the same effect on me. He recorded two outs that a player with an average arm would not have made, but his most impressive cannon display came on a tough backhand off of one foot where the runner actually beat the throw. Even though these little plays may not occur so frequently as to make a player great or bad, but they are the aesthetic trimmings that keep the game entertaining.

*I believe that Rickie Weeks will eventually be a star player, but he has to overcome his inconsistency. Early in the game, he had an easy out on a botched hit and run, but dropped the catcher’s throw down to second on an apparent lapse in concentration. He also had two ugly strikeouts. Setting those negatives aside, he showed really solid range at second, some patience at the plate, and good pop on a line-drive in his other plate appearance. Once he weeds out the mistakes and shows off his considerable skill more frequently, he is going to be very good.

*Dan Kolb, like most of the rest of the Milwaukee bullpen, looked terrible. Kolb’s failure was unique in that he seemed to have no control over where his pitches were going. Sitting only feet away, I saw him struggle to keep his changeup below belt-high level and his sinker out of the dirt. Once he got into the game, he had the same problem. He got behind in the count and gave up laser shots to all fields, leaving the hitters in control the whole time. He only gave up one run in his inning of work, but where others looked rusty and made mistakes, Kolb looked incompetent.

We'll See You Tomorrow Night

The death of the greatest Twin and my favorite player came suddenly and unexpectedly. I saw the news that Kirby had suffered a stroke on Sunday, and 24 hours later he was gone. He may or may not be the most valuable Twin of all time; it's hard to view it objectively in a time clouded by sentimentality. In any case, without Kirby, I may be a mindless NFL fan like so many other sports enthusiasts. Jack Morris said that without Puckett, there would be no baseball in Minnesota, and I don't doubt it. A league average CF would not have been enough to take home two world titles and Kirby played an especially larger role in the second. More importantly, he was an ambassador for the sport to the entire upper Midwest, using his charisma and love of the game to make it special for thousands.

As a player, Kirby is an interesting paradox of supporting and defying convention. On the one hand, his .318 average and lack of batting eye made me believe in the value of the single and his game 6 heroics reinforced the notion of a clutch player. On the other hand, his squat shape undermined the scouts' idea that a CF has to look like Willie Mays. He was one of a kind, and an all-time great.

His life was less luminous to so many people over the last few years- not surprising for someone who lived so fully off the game of baseball. But controversy does not undo his greatness, it only gives perspective to how great he had been. Even if another wild-swinging CF as short and round as him comes around in the future, we can say with certainty that there will never be another Kirby Puckett.