March 5th- Seattle at San Diego
Chargers 13 Seahawks 7 @ Peoria, AZ

Recently, I commented how spring training shrinks players from larger-than-life to real human specimens. After a brief encounter with Jon Daniels at Rangers camp, it was apparent that there’s nothing large about that GM except his set of people skills. Today, I had the opportunity to meet with Kevin Towers of the Padres and Bill Bavasi of the Mariners along with about 25 others for almost two hours. I was surprised to see just how approachable and frank both of them were regarding their players, other teams and their philosophies on the game. Just like players are not mechanical athletes, the GMs seemed like regular guys who know a lot about baseball. They were happy to chatter about projections for other teams, transactions and strategies as the time flew by quickly. I conspicuously asked about three times more questions than anyone else, fascinated through the whole conversation, learning a tremendous amount in a short time. I will try to weave some of their input into my review of today’s game.

Mariners Notes

*When I asked about injury considerations, Bavasi said a couple of things that were interesting. He reiterated the commonly held belief that pitchers will get injured more easily- a fact that his organization knows all too well. Probably more interestingly, he said that physicals and medical reports do not tell the whole story. I specifically asked whether the Padres had an idea of whether Brian Lawrence was about to turn into the Venus de Milo when Towers shipped him to Washington, and Bavasi said that no teams get much of an advantage over others in terms of evaluating medical reports since the dissemination of information is so level. As a result, many teams rely on reverse engineered medical opinions, looking at playing time and performance to determine whether a player has started to decline. So when we watch baseball games, commenting that it looks like a player is playing hurt, we aren’t so far off of a professional evaluation. Furthermore, he talked about the skill of playing hurt, using the example of bringing Tony Phillips to Anaheim when he was on their staff partially with the intent of teaching Jim Edmonds how to successfully play hurt.

*Bavasi, unlike Towers, spent very little time talking about his team’s specific pickups. I would have liked to hear what he had to say about signing Jarrod Washburn, since I do not understand where his bloated contract gets the team. Washburn started today, giving up one run in two innings and looking decent enough. Bavasi seemed more interested in talking about Jesse Foppert’s performance the day before, as he looked good in another game where the team gave up more than ten runs. He pointed out that a successful Foppert would not only push Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro at the back end of the rotation, but would give them more bullpen flexibility. Even if he has a great season, I’m skeptical about how much it would mean for the team as a whole.

*As opposed to some other GMs, Bavasi takes a completely hands-off approach to the amateur draft, instead letting his scouts and player development staff earn their money. He has a background in development in Anaheim, so it surprises me that he would remove himself from the process. Perhaps coincidentally, their minor league system is absolutely full of foreign-born players, especially at the higher levels. I have to compliment their scouting efforts on that front, but Bavasi puts a lot of stock in the draft- he even said the team shied away from Kevin Millwood because he would have cost a first-round draft pick.

Padres Notes

*While Bavasi seemed like a good enough baseball guy, Kevin Towers seemed like a brilliant engineer who will continue to mix scouting and performance analysis to make a good team. He recognizes the shortcomings of his own players, commenting on how he looks forward to Chan Ho Park coming off the books after the season and responding to a question about Mike Piazza’s arm by saying, “Of course I’m concerned about it; I just watched him throw in practice.” As a former scout, he brings in his own perspective on players, preferring to watch them to see if they can do things that matter in games. He doesn’t believe in stop watches or radar guns, but understands that stealing a base has to do with more than just sprinting. Statistical analysis first became interesting to him due to the success of Rickey Henderson when he was in the lineup. Even though Tony Gwynn was batting .100 points higher than Henderson, Rickey’s OBP was some .080 points better and he was scoring more runs and producing more offensively. Add in the influence of Eddie and Theo Epstein in recent years, a keen understanding of park factors, a willingness to admit failure and a lifetime of baseball experience and Towers is the rare hybrid that so many GMs strive to be.

*In evaluating pitchers, Towers says he is more interested in command of the fastball and changeup than anything else. He believes that pitchers who cannot control their fastballs usually face an uphill battle and that the organization can teach breaking pitches along the way. With that in mind, the Padres traded for Dewon Brazelton, Tampa’s busted prospect, and he started today’s game. Brazelton looked fine for two innings, but that may well have been an effect of Seattle’s weak offense that generated only a handful of hits in the first eight innings before coming around in the ninth. Look for Brazelton to be part of the next wave of Padres pitchers in 2007 after Park and Woody Williams leave town. He’s still young enough to have a successful career as a starter if handled correctly.

*Another one of my questions had to do with what the GM looks for in spring training. The big stars and established players have to get back into the groove more than anything else, but the Cactus League is the turf where the fringe battles get fought. Both GMs agree that making less important decisions in March is usually a predictor of future success, but both also have crucial decisions to make at multiple positions. One of San Diego’s biggest battles is the one for the second base job, where Towers will choose between Mark Bellhorn and Josh Barfield. Both played today and both did an excellent job, Bellhorn blasting a two-run homer to tie the game at three in the bottom of the fifth and Barfield driving in four on two doubles. Neither one will be an All-Star this season, but I’m concerned with Bellhorn’s career path, as his walk totals may start to erode if pitchers no longer fear him as a hitter. Petco will make it harder for him to go deep, possibly forecasting that exact type of future.