Top 10 Free Agents Revisited

If you’re like me, you rely heavily on the hot stove to keep you warm through the winter. Then you might remember a piece I did shortly after the World Series on the top 10 free agents of the 2005-2006 offseason. Aside from nailing Paul Konerko’s contract on the head at 5 years, $60 million with the Sox (which I’m going to mention approximately 482,359 more times), I attempted to pin down the value of nine other big name latter day Curt Floods. Looking back, my top seven were all within the top eight of salary received, with my bottom three (Piazza, R. Hernandez, Garciaparra) taking shorter deals that limited the overall value and losing out to Hideki Matsui (4), Jarrod Washburn (9) and Brian Giles (10) in the overall buxxxxxx sweepstakes. How did the others fare and what can we expect them to give their new teams in the new season? Those are precisely the questions I will try to answer in the next 1500 or so words.

1. Paul Konerko, actual contract- CHA 5/60, projected contract- CHA 5/60 (there it is again, 482,358 to come): Market value for a first baseman? In my last entry I commented on Adam Dunn’s 2 year extension with a third year team option. As a much better player than Konerko who is still in his prime, Dunn will make $7.5 mil this year and about $12 mil next year. Even in the option year, he makes about the same amount as Konerko will make on average over the life of his contract. Like the BoSox with Jason Varitek last year, Chicago will point out that Konerko’s leadership and community presence justifies his extra pay. But Kenny Williams might be able to learn something from the other Sox mistake with Varitek entering the second year of a five year deal with his skills and durability already fading considerably (4.7 projected VORP down from 6.5 in 2004). Konerko might be fine this year and next, but he will be a boondoggle before too long. I know what you are thinking, and no, I do not mean to say he will be a Boy Scout neckerchief.

2. Kevin Millwood, actual contract- TEX 5/60, projected contract- TOR 3/27: At the other end of the spectrum, I probably didn’t miss further on anyone than I did on Millwood. To be fair, his deal is incentive laden, the 5th year only kicks in if he meets very high IP standards in years two, three and four, and the signing bonus gets paid out over 2011-2015 when the dollar could be worth, like 500,000 yen. I do not think it would be completely backward to think of the deal as a four year, $48 mil one. Millwood throws groundballs so Texas shouldn’t completely kill him, but it won’t help either. He won’t make the difference between playoffs and staying home, but if he has a couple good years left in him he could conceivably contribute on a contender featuring Texeira, Blalock, Wilkerson and young pitchers like Danks and Diamond.

3. A.J. Burnett, actual contract- TOR 5/55, projected contract- BAL 4/52: If I had known Millwood would end up in Texas, I probably would have slotted Burnett into Toronto. He has received a bad wrap, but I have already spent enough words defending Toronto’s offseason moves, mostly premised on the idea that they were better than their record last year while NY and BOS were worse than their records. Burnett projects to a sub-4.00 ERA this year and retains a better than 50-50 chance of being a “star” by PECOTA’s standards for the next two years before sliding considerably after that. It might be tough to change fate, but it is pitching coach Brad Arnsberg’s charge and GM J.P. Riccardi’s prayer that Burnett’s career arc not remain etched in stone. By the way, due to his age, I had him ranked as the no. 1 free agent going into the offseason.

4. Hideki Matsui, actual contract- NY 4/52, projected contract- NA: Most good players follow a salary structure where they are cheaper than market value by rule at first, transition into being cheaper (and more valuable) because they cannot negotiate on the open market, but only through arbitration, then become overpriced around age 28-31 when they run out of arbitration after accumulating solid stats, but having passed their most productive years. Matsui has been different, entering the league at 29 after a brilliant Japanese career and playing well enough for the Yankees to make his 3/21 contract a relative bargain. The Yankee Braintrust decided they couldn’t be content with getting value, so they decided to give him the same contract they gave to Johnny Damon even though he is already 32 and showed signs of decline last year. His Marginal VORP projection, which gives a dollar figure for his projected value, makes him worth $21 mil over the life of his contract, starting at $7 mil this year and deteriorating from there. Looks like another boondoggle.

5. Johnny Damon, actual contract- NY 4/52, projected contract- CHN 4/42: I was surprised the Cubs never really got in on the Damon discussion since they were hot to trot on every other player who gets too much credit for his speed and defense, even adding two of them in Pierre and Jones. I don’t have much more to add about Damon since he’s been overhyped to the hilt since he went from baseball Jesus to baseball Judas on the biggest stage imaginable. I will add that his projected MORP over the life of the deal is $25 mil, leaving $54 mil of overpayment for two aging OFs in NY, not to mention having to solve the Sheffield question sooner or later. Damon also stands about a 40% chance of dropping out of baseball by the final year of the deal.

6. B.J. Ryan, actual contract- TOR 5/47, projected contract- BAL 4/24: I really whiffed on this one since Ryan wasn’t even eligible to resign with those birds. I also assumed Wagner would take an early offer due to his age and injury concerns and set the market a bit lower in so doing. Instead, Ryan was the first big free agent off the board, arguably setting the stage for the winter’s unjustifiable spending spree. I am pretty optimistic about Ryan’s level of performance, the question remains how often he will get to show it. He has a violent motion and people who know about pitching injuries say he is due for one.

7. Billy Wagner, actual contract- NYN 4/43, projected contract- PHI 3/28: Maybe my projection was on the low side, since the yearly average he got does not surprise me that much. The more surprising move is that Omar Minaya brought in Wagner and LoDuca without noticing that neither is Latin American. At the time, I imagine Philly saw Ugeth Urbina as a possible closer from within, but then he went and lit people on fire, which I guess is illegal where he’s from. Instead they had to scramble to get Tom Gordon at too much cash for too many years and too much injury risk. Other than that move, Pat Gillick did a good job spending his first offseason making the team decent without making long-term mistakes. Let David Bell play out his last year and start over with a Howard-Utley-Victorino core.

8. Rafael Furcal, actual contract- LAD 3/30, projected contract- ATL 5/60: I gave Furcal a big number because he is relatively young and has skills that typically get paid more than their due. Ned Colletti proved me wrong and made his first big deal as a GM, nabbing Furcal for more money but fewer years, giving them his upside but clearing them if it turns out to be a mistake. MORP makes him worth over $30 mil over the life of the deal, and even if he remains a 6.2 win player like PECOTA sees for this year he will be a success story. The Dodgers want to get back in the playoffs and they have the market to overpay for wins if they are a relatively sure thing.

9. Jarrod Washburn, actual contract- SEA 4/37.5, projected contract- NA: I wrote about this deal recently, lampooning the lack of direction in Seattle’s front office. Sure, he’s an upgrade from the departed Ryan Frankling, and he slots in nicely after Felix and Moyer but before Pineiro and Meche. There is the concern that his peripherals cannot sustain the type of success he has had recently, but Safeco can mask some of those mistakes. More importantly, any team with this many holes does not need to spend a big chunk of cash to plug one that cannot overcome the others. Washburn will not get them into or near the postseason, especially in that division, so the money is just flushed down the drain.

10. Brian Giles, actual contract, SD 3/30, projected contract- NA: Giles was a very good deal for the most accomplished free agent to actually sign (76 career WARP). I can also see why SD would want to make one last push at the postseason before setting into rebuilding mode with Hoffman back and the offensive core of Klesko-Giles-Castilla-Cameron-Roberts-Piazza goes bad. But the team overachieved last year, and they legitimately downgraded at 2B and arguably C, so the prospects of improving are slim, and the rest of the division should be better. Suffice to say that I’m not picking the Pads to win the NL West, and I’m not so sure that this signing will look like a good idea in its 3rd year.