Up for the Downstroke

For the last couple of weeks, I’ve been looking into 2005 records across MLB and picking teams that are good bets to improve or decline, but remain under the radar. Toronto and Florida are obvious examples of teams who are a good bet to change their record from last year in one way or another, but I’m more interested in teams who have not received much attention, but are good bets to surprise next year, for better or worse. As I have mentioned earlier, teams with great records or terrible records are generally good bets to change the next year. No matter how good or bad a team is, approaching 100 wins or losses usually takes some luck, which was certainly the case for several teams last year. In today’s final edition of the series, I construct an honorable mention list for teams on the decline to accompany the Yankees and Padres on my disappointments list. The trend of lucky good teams and unlucky bad teams is even more present in today’s column, as I put the kiss of death on several reigning division champions. Keep in mind, though, that if any of the teams on this list manage to repeat the over- or under-performance regarding their Pythagorean projections, their records won’t change as much as one would anticipate. On the other hand, even a basic understanding of regression to the mean would indicate that luck or other intangible factors will not persist. More importantly, anyone dealing in projections cannot take luck as given; it’s exogenous.

Honorable Mention:

Chicago White Sox: As much as I complained about the Pale Hoes last season, I have to admit that I really like their off-season moves. Orlando Hernandez looked like the one rotational weak link last year as he advanced in years, and Kenny Williams used the extra revenue that comes with being the champ to spin him for Javier Vazquez, a solid workhorse at very least, leaving Brandon McCarthy in reserve. He also managed to get rid of a situational lefty who did not get along with management for a useful and versatile backup (Marte for Mackowiak), much more successfully than Terry Ryan did with J.C. Romero. I’m not entirely sold on Jim Thome’s health, as players with his profile don’t typically recover very well, but they are deeper and more powerful than last year. Still, no team was luckier last year than the White Sox in more ways than one. For all the hype about last year’s pitching staff gave up two more runs than divisional foe Cleveland while the offense scored 49 fewer runs. Based on their Pythagorean record, they were the win-luckiest team in the league, and RS-RA stats don’t have the same shortcomings regarding defense as other metrics. Also, a team built around players like Jermaine Dye, Jose Contreras and Bobby Jenks stayed healthy for nearly the entire season. Making Jim Thome a cog in that equation makes the likelihood of a cataclysmic injury even luckier. Regression on either of these fronts could cost the champs a playoff spot in a tough division, even though they are better than they were last year.

Los Angeles de Los Angeles: While the Angels weren’t as lucky as the Sox in 2005, their seven game edge over the A’s in the AL West is cut down to a .7 game advantage when run differentials are taken into account. Theirs is more of a traditional story of decline with Paul Byrd, Jarrod Washburn and Funky Ben Molina exiting stage right after their appearance in the ALCS. Byrd and Washburn may not stand to compete for the Cy Young anytime in the near future, but they performed very well for the Angels last year, and they have to replace that performance to get back to the same level, whether it was a fluke or not. Washburn’s 48.8 VORP and Byrd’s 37.3 rank them in the AL’s top 20, and Molina was the third best on the Angel’s offense. Shifting Erstad to CF will be an improvement over Steve Finley on offense and defense, but the pitching rotation behind Colon and Lackey will not be nearly as strong. Santana moves from the back of the rotation to the middle with the oft injured Kelvim Escobar and Hector Carrasco bringing up the rear instead of adding to their bullpen depth as they would be better served to do. Add in the aging effects on Erstad, Anderson, Cabrera and Kennedy and that Angels will be hard pressed to keep up with the surging White Elephants.

St. Louis Cardinals: Between LaRussa and Pujols, the Cardinals have become one of my favorite teams in the National League over the last several years. Unfortunately, their success the last two years didn’t earn them rings, and the window of opportunity is beginning to close. Jim Edmonds is talking about retirement at the end of the season, and his 50.4 VORP is well below the 74.4 average he established the previous three years. Getting Scott Rolen back will help, but losing Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders (4th and 5th on the team in VORP, respectively) will not. The replacements, Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion, are not of the same caliber, and the rest of the offense performed up to their ability last year making it hard to find how the surplus runs will materialize. The good news is that they have put enough distance between themselves and the rest of the division to hold off the competition for one more season. Milwaukee is getting better, but they finished last season 19 games behind the Cards. Houston is going in the wrong direction, and the Cubs only chance is Zambrano, Prior and Wood remaining healthy all season (in other words, Kerry Wood has to be someone other than Kerry Wood, as injuries are as central to his identity as sequins to Liberace). With a few breaks in the postseason, the Cardinals could make one more run at the title. Luckily, they have a 26 year old who may be the game’s best player around whom they can build.