Thanks Steve

I will not portend to be an expert on trades and free agent signings. I read a lot about baseball and I think I have probably picked up a few analytic tools that give me a better understanding of which players are useful and which are not. Still, if I prescribe a solution to every team’s roster issues, I will frequently be wrong. Look at my free agent predictions, for example; I did well to predict that Konerko would stay with Chicago for 5/$60 mil (dead on) and that Burnett would go to Baltimore or Toronto for 4/$52 mil (off by a year), but missed horribly by guessing B.J. Ryan would sign for 4/$24 mil (I guess that’s the difference between the normative and the actual world). Now that I have established that I am not qualified to speak on behalf of every team’s fans, I will spend the rest of my column criticizing Steve Phillips for failing miserably at the same task.

Phillips seems like a decent human being; I even enjoy some of his commentary, as the team with Steve Stone and Rod Thorne provides a much more lighthearted perspective than the self-righteous blowhards on FOX. As a GM, he even made the kinds of smart little moves that compound into enough wins to make the postseason. He traded overpriced relievers for useful, young and cheap utility players (Orosco for McEwing, Pulsipher for Lenny Harris) and took chances on some of the right players (Rickey Henderson, Tsuyoshi Shinjo). It was a mixed bag, but he was at least a decent GM. Reading his ESPN.com columns, though, it would be hard to tell that he ever had any idea what makes a team competitive. Take his recent column on players who fill teams’ remaining holes. Here are some highlights:

“The answer [for Mariners' SP] is the AL's ERA leader in 2005, Kevin Millwood. The Mariners are aggressively pursuing him and reportedly have made an offer to him. They may have to overpay to get him to go West because his preference is to stay closer to his Georgia home. Millwood has led a staff and played on winning teams, which is the type of pedigree the Mariners need to add.”

To what question is “Millwood” Seattle’s answer? Who will get Seattle to 75 wins? The Mariners are, in many ways, as directionless as Phillips, with a roster full of players under 26 and over 36. With some developmental breaks and a reversal of injury fortunes, the M’s could contend in ’08 or so, when Millwood will be 34. If they “have to overpay” for Millwood, he is going to be in steep decline by the time they are in contention, not to mention a financial burden when they could use the flexibility to fill in more pressing holes. Signing Millwood would be the sort of short-term non-solution that keeps teams like Pittsburgh questing for mediocrity year after year.

“Jarrod Washburn's road numbers were very good last year, and he made five starts against the Rangers, going 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA.”

Evaluating a player based on head-to-head competition is the kind of mistake I imagine teams making around the turn of the last century, when the only time a manager saw other players was in that setting. Today, GMs have the luxury of looking at intricate statistics as well as other teams’ games. Jon Daniels has the luxury of knowing that Washburn is on the wrong side of 30, had ERAs around 4.50 in 2003-2004, and struck out only 94 batters in 177.3 innings last season. He’s not as durable as he once was, and he doesn’t do any one thing particularly well (besides “handedness”). Maybe Phillips is implying that Washburn has some special ability to pitch in hitter friendly Arlington? That’s even more spurious, as Washburn’s 10 starts over the last four yeas in that venue have yielded a 7.23 ERA.

“[The Twins] need a solid veteran who can help lead this young team in what has become a very challenging division. The answer is Joe Randa.

Randa's preference is to play as close to his home in Kansas City as possible. He handles just about everything he gets to defensively, and he has some pop in his bat.”

This is another example of filling a hole for the sake of filling a hole. Joe Randa isn’t terrible, and he is probably even a little better than Terry Tiffee, the Twins next best alternative at third (not Tony Batista. Please, not Tony Batista, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Phillips liked that pickup). The “pop in his bat” has been good for a career .427 SLG, strikingly close to Mike Cuddyer’s .422 SLG last year, which everyone deemed wholly inadequate. Cuddyer is young enough to improve; Randa is 35. I’m not saying the Twins should settle for 86-87 wins with what is currently on the table. I’m saying that the Twins shouldn’t settle for paying Joe Randa an extra couple of million dollars when the return is something the neighborhood of one marginal win.

“Cleveland Indians Need: Right-handed power hitterThey tried with Juan Gonzalez in 2005, but that didn't work. The Tribe needs a big right-handed power bat to protect Travis Hafner in the lineup and to spell Ben Broussard against tough lefties. Fortunately, the hitter can be an outfielder exclusively because Casey Blake can move to 1B to make room for him. Ideally, the more versatile the player is the better, because the Indians do have a number of movable pieces depending upon the matchups.

Preston Wilson could help the Indians. Even though he struggled after his midyear trade to the Nationals, Wilson still hit 25 homers and drove in 90 runs in '05. There doesn't seem to be much action on him now, so he will probably come at a good bargain. He is also a year removed from knee surgery. He can play all three outfield positions, and he is a definite threat to go deep.”

Clearly he is not thinking along the lines of what could plausibly happen, since Preston Wilson is exactly the sort of player that Mark Shapiro would not consider. Cleveland has done well to get lots of cheap OBP, which is part of the reason they have sacrificed the right handed power hitter to present. Signing Preston Wilson is wishcasting for his age 25 and 26 seasons- he is seven years removed from slugging over .500 or hitting 30 HRs outside of Coors Field. And last I checked, Grady Sizemore was a pretty decent CF, making it pretty wasteful to pay Wilson for his ability to do the same.

Most importantly, the deal is reactionary, uncreative and overly simplistic. He sees a position without a proven player and plugs in the next free agent to play that position who has played in an All Star game, hit .300 or 30 HRs or accomplished some other feat, no matter how long ago it may have been. Florida’s Alex Gonzalez to the Red Sox? Well, I guess they do not have a proven star at SS, but Gonzalez’s glove can’t outweigh his miserable bat. Moreover, signing him hamstrings the Sox 40-man roster and overall flexibility. They have enough assets and money to try Mark Loretta, Andy Marte and Dustin Pedroia at short and patch it over at the deadline if it doesn’t work out.

Phillips’ ideas will not kill teams, for the most part, and he seems to understand that short-term deals are better than long-term ones. But he has several methodological flaws. Gonzalez is the youngest player on his list, and he’ll be 29 on opening day, and the average age of his solutions is 33.3 years. He goes for players who have already “proven” themselves rather than those who might have their best years ahead of them. He assumes that a small upgrade is necessarily better, even if it just means a couple more wins next year at the cost of flexibility or development in the long term. On the whole, he does not have a plan, which would be costly for someone managing 40 roster spots and a whole minor league system.