Friday, November 25, 2005

Blown Away

If there’s not a lot of baseball news floating around these days, the headlines that have bubbled up have been big enough to make it count. The Thome and Delgado deals might have been more reasonable a couple of years ago when they were drawing 100+ walks and hitting 40+ HRs every year, but that doesn’t mean the White Sox and Mets aren’t better for making those trades. Today I’ll break down what the trades mean for each involved party. (By the way, the title of the column is a joke. I just wanted to see if anyone else is annoyed at how often teams say they're not willing to trade a player unless they get an offer that blows them away. And it is always the same rhetorical device. Wouldn't a great offer do the trick? Does it really have to blow you away?)

Chicago White Sox receive Jim Thome and $22 million: Theo Epstein’s World Championship goes back to statistically motivated decisions, at least perceptually, and I think Kenny Williams’ Championship ought to be thought of as a bunch of high risk decisions coming up roses at the same time. Nobody knew if Jermaine Dye could come back, and he did. Nobody knew if Bobby Jenks could keep his head and elbow on straight, and he did. Nobody knew of trading Carlos Lee’s offense for Scott Podsednik’s defense would help, and it did (well, that’s debatable). Thome is another huge risk, as most GMs already said they would refuse to deal for him at all before they could see if he could even swing a bat. Top that off with a chronically bad back, and Thome’s ’06-’08 could look an awful lot like Frank Thomas in ’05. The Phillies are footing half of the bill for Thome, which would soften the blow if this turns out like it usually does for lumbering sluggers with injury trouble, and the Sox didn’t give up much. Brian Anderson won’t play LF like Podsednik did last year, but Rowand was overrated and older than people think, so they won’t give up much in terms of OF production. This deal boils down to how much production they will get from an old DH for $7 mil a year. I don’t dislike it though, as it shows that Williams isn’t afraid of shaking up the team after it won a title, and it probably signifies the end of the Big Hurt era in the Windy City (if not the Konerko era as well).

Philadelphia receives Aaron Rowand: When Pat Gillick was introduced as the new GM of the Phillies, he said his first order of business would be to deal with the logjam that Ryan Howard created at first base he Pipp’d Thome to the tune of a Rookie of the Year plaque. That he was able to find a taker who would cover at least some of the cost this early allows them to move forward and try to improve the rest of the team without the dark cloud of uncertainty raining foreboding droplets of indecision on their heads. Yes, it’s a shame that they are content to play with Jason Michaels and Rowand in center rather than try Shane Victorino over an extended period of time (.310/.377/.534 at AAA). And it’s hard to be happy about the way the Thome marriage ended, but it could have been a lot worse. The way I see it, they’ll pay Howard something like $5 million combined over the next 3 years, which comes to about $27 million when Thome’s sunk cost is factored in. A three year deal at $9 million per for a slugging first baseman who is entering his prime? That’s not so bad. Plus, maybe they can flip Rowand to one of those “contenders” in Boston, New York or Chicago (North Side) who need a CF.

New York Mets receive Carlos Delgado: Due to his injury history, we talk a lot about Thome’s potential to get hurt again, but we don’t focus on Delgado’s health, and he’s getting to the age where Thome’s started to be a problem. Still, Omar Minaya wanted to get Delgado last year, and missed out. Now, he had a season’s worth of evidence that he really needed him to anchor the lineup and keep a bat out of the hands of the human AB massacre (Dougie). All in all, the Mets got a great hitter who plays above average defense without giving up their top prospect (Lastings Milledge). Plus, Delgado’s top comp is Fred McGriff, who aged pretty well. The money part isn’t so hard to swallow since it is, after all, New York, and Delgado might provide a big boost in revenue since he’s the type of 8+ win player who gets the Mets into serious post-season contention.

Florida receives Yusmeiro Petit, Mike Jacobs and a mystery pitcher: Jacobs hit 11 HRs in 100 Abs with the Mets, which approaches his previous high at any level (17 in 407 ABs at AA in 2003). He will play mostly first base, but he might have just enough of a glove to catch every couple of weeks, but he won’t be a superstar. Petit makes the Marlins extremely deep in the arms department, joining Justin Vargas, Scott Olsen and the recently acquired Anibal Sanchez. But even if all of those guys develop to fill in behind Willis, will they really perform better than the Fish’s rotation this year? Probably not, and there’s almost no chance that what they have left in the field (regulars and prospects) will amount to the talent they had this year by the time that crew is ready to contend. I like that they were willing to make a run in ’05, but I think it’s a shame that teams keep thinking that they have to go to such drastic measures to get a new stadium. They should just say that their current stadium is a national security risk, so they need a new one to fight terrorism. That would DEFINITELY work.

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