Top 10 Free Agents- Cream of the Crop

The World Series is over, so its time to start stoking the stove for a long winter. Now we have to contrive hobbies for three and a half months before pitchers and catcher report. No worries, though, as the off-season can actually be more fun than some of the dog day dregs of the regular season as long as you know what look for. Once we get to the winter meetings, we can speculate about what every team will trade, sign or invite without respect to realistic limitations such as “money” and “resources.” Maybe if I grew up a Yankee fan expecting every player to sign with my team I would not be so infatuated with player movement. But I grew up with Butch Huskey and Bob Tewksbury revving my free agent engines, so the idea of a big money player is still a grand and foreign one to me. Thus, today I’ll discuss the biggest names and the highest ceilings of this year’s free agent market in terms of value over their likely contract.

1. A.J. Burnett- At 28, he’s the only big name free agent who might have his best years still ahead of him. With only 12 HR allowed in 209 IP to go with 198 Ks and 79 BBs, his peripherals have come a long way from a 9 BB no-hitter. Burnett has had elbow issues in the past, which may be a red flag for some teams, but if a team is confident that his joint is sound going forward, then the lessened workload may be a virtue. He has a reputation for being uncoachable, but has a previous relationship with Toronto’s pitching coach, which may swing the pendulum in their favor. In any case, look for Baltimore or Toronto to seize the opportunity to upgrade its rotation in pursuit of the falling-star Yankees and Red Sox. At least we know he won’t return to South Florida with the organizational falling out he had at season’s end.
Prediction- Baltimore; 4 years @ $52 mil

2. Paul Konerko- Hot off of a World Championship, Konerko is this year’s Carlos Beltran in that he’s vaulted from upper-mid free agent tier into the absolute top echelon by virtue of a few good weeks. Peter Gammons is talking about Konerko as the one good power hitter on the market, and while that may be a bit of an exaggeration, thumpers are indeed scarce. Just as I wrote about Boston recently, champs tend to protect their own, so look for Kenny Williams to resign Konerko to too long of a contract. He’ll be thirty next year, and BP’s PECOTA projection system sees a slow decline over the next two years, followed by a sharp one after that. With Frank Thomas, Paul Sorrento and Eric Karros high on his comps list, expect Konerko to age like cheese rather than wine.
Prediction- Chicago (A); 5 years @ $60 mil

3. Johnny Damon- At 31, Damon mentioned several times this year that the Sox gave Varitek (even older) a four year deal last year, but they weren’t giving him the same generous treatment. Without the pressures of rewarding the champs, Theo Epstein's successor should be free to notice that Damon has a skill set that does not age well, as doubles will turn into singles and infield singles into outs as he loses a step. PECOTA sees both his offense and defense becoming less than 50% as valuable by 2009, which would be the last year of a 4 year deal. Damon should be solid next year, but signing him will be a bad move for the future of any franchise.
Prediction- Chicago (N); 4 years @ $42 mil

4. Rafael Furcal- If you’re asking yourself how Furcal can be considered the fourth best free agent when he’s never been one of the biggest stars on his own team, then you’re not alone. To be fair, though, Furcal had his best season in 2005, putting up a WARP score of over eight wins. He’s become a terrific base stealer over the last three years, totaling 100 steals while being caught only 18 times. He’s also settled into an acceptable K/BB rate of about 75/60 each year, and slugs over .400 as a good fielding SS. Renteria got big money last year for being a demonstrably worse player (except in 2003), so Furcal doesn’t look at all bad, especially with a couple of prime years left.
Prediction- Atlanta; 5 years @ $60 mil (thank you, Jimmy Rollins)

5. Billy Wagner- Wagner is still a stud, but it’s a question of how much Philadelphia gains by signing him to a 3-year deal worth upwards of $30 mil, compared to a short-term deal to retain Urbina at a much smaller cost. The lineup is in good order if they can sort out the Thome-Howard situation, but they could use another starter or two who don’t give up copious amounts of HRs. If new GM Pat Gillick develops the same penchant for exorbitant reliever salaries, there will be little room for rotational improvement. Ultimately, he’s a known commodity; he will succeed in slightly diminished IP totals with the constant threat of injury. His final destination depends on how much Philly buys into the closer label.
Prediction- Philadelphia; 3 years @ $28 mil

6. Kevin Millwood- A league ERA title isn’t something at which one should scoff, and Millwood could be an excellent investment for a team in need of a couple more wins to make a playoff push. He’s no spring chicken, but he strikes guys out, limits HRs and has respectable BB totals, so he should find relative success no matter where he ends up. Millwood reminds me of an old-timey baseball player; all ideas I associate with him are pleasant. He looks tough, he sweats a lot, and he bounces from team to team while seemingly making friends wherever he goes- none of this, of course, is worth a dime's worth of salary or a single win. Scott Boras is the only downside.
Prediction- Toronto; 3 years @ $27 mil

7. B.J. Ryan- The O’s closer is Billy Wagner Lite, another hard-throwing lefty with the precious closer label. For some reason, PECOTA has him pegged for a big drop in 2007, perhaps mimicking the dip in performance of top-comp Jeff Nelson, followed by a solid rebound. Such a massive failure would surprise me, though, as I expect him to keep notching 9+ K/9 and an ERA in the 3.00s. He’s not spectacular, but he’s a solid end-of-the-bullpen arm, and would make a nice luxury item for a team with its other pieces in order.
Prediction- Baltimore; 4 years @ $24 mil (it would be a lot more without the flooded closer market)

8. Mike Piazza- Since he’s pretty much in the Fatthew Lecroy defensive role, this positioning might have more to do with sentimentality than skill. Even so, it’s not hard to imagine Piazza putting up one or two more years with 25 HRs and a near .500 SLG now that he doesn’t have to don the tools of ignorance. Piazza is one of the best offensive catchers of all time, and if he can pad his counting stats for the next couple of years, he’ll be a first ballot Hall of Famer. But which cap will he wear? Admittedly the question is not as important as whether he can push a team over the top next year with a few more doubles, but his value is split pretty evenly between New York and Los Angeles. I don’t much care as long as he doesn’t go in as a Marlin.
Prediction- Los Angeles de Los Angeles; 2 years @ $8 mil. I agonized over this one, considering Texas, Baltimore and Toronto, but the Angels’ need and Piazza’s roots are too similar.

9. Ramon Hernandez- Hernandez is an everyday catching option with good platoon splits and a solid glove. He’ll be 30 next year, so there’s the factor of a catcher’s age to worry about, although PECOTA has him settling in at a consistent if slightly diminished level of performance over the next several seasons. It probably won’t happen, but there were rumors a few weeks ago that the Yankees would shop Posada and replace him with the younger Hernandez, which would at least do wonders for his market value, as the Yankees would inevitably offer him several million more than anyone else. San Diego needs to get younger, but without a clear alternative, they’ll probably take the easy way out on this one.
Prediction- San Diego; 3 years @ $21 mil

10. Nomar Garciaparra- Certainly, he’s a dark-horse candidate, and the fervor surrounding him most closely resembles the enthusiasm of the fans who still expect Mike Tyson to make a run at the heavyweight title. Imagine if Junior Griffey had experienced his string of injuries in one contract year after another; it’s a real nightmare for Nomar. He can still hit for some power, although the low BB rate could be trouble as he ages. He fielded well at SS after his return, approaching league average to go with his plus bat. More worrisome was his pathetic attempt at the hot corner, where he put up a very un-ARod 84 Rate2, a notch below replacement level. Let’s give him some slack for learning on the fly, but his mobility and fragility will be a BIG concern from here on out.
Prediction- Los Angeles (N); 1 year @ $6 mil

Honorable Mention: Kenny Rogers, Bob Wickman, Jarrod Washburn, Ben Molina, Tom Gordon, Bernie Williams, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Morris, Trevor Hoffman

Notes: Frank Thomas still has exercised his player option with Chicago, but they have to match, as it was a mutual option. If they cut him loose, consider them a possibility for Piazza at lower cost.

The White Sox also cut bait on Carl Everett, clearing a potential roadblock for the return of the Big Hurt.

The Giants exercised a $10.5 mil option on Jason Schmidt despite injuries and a down year. He had a late peak, so don’t be surprised if he follows his most comparable pitcher, Roger Clemens, in reinventing himself as a more extreme groundball pitcher as his power fades. For a team with no choice but to win now behind a rapidly aging mega-star, it makes sense to hang on for one more year before starting the full-fledged rebuilding project.