You’re Gonna Make Me Lonesome When You Go

Yesterday I started the project of valuing the Twins who left the team over the last few years. Today, I will continue with 2003, with the other years to follow. If there was a year that would kill the Twins through free agency, one would think that this would have been it based on the talent of the players lost. Instead, they won one more division title before falling off a bit. There are lots of players to value, so I’ll get right to it.

2003

Eddie Guardado (3-Year Minnesota VORP avg 21.0, Post-Minnesota avg 15.4): When Everyday Eddie left the Twins, it was supposed to really hurt them, as they did not have a ready replacement at the end of the bullpen. Coupled with the loss of Hawkins, the bullpen looked substantially weaker. Obviously, Rincon, Nathan and Crain have made up for the difference, but it makes me wonder if this would be a good time to cash in on a couple of those proven relievers. Nathan has the aforementioned closer tag, which could fetch a good return. We know there is a market for Romero, and they could definitely use Liriano out of the pen to get him some seasoning and save his young arm some stress. Even after losing those two, the bullpen would retain Rincon, Crain, Liriano, Bowyer and Guerrier, with Bonser ready to step in if needed. The Twins need to make a splash on offense, and Terry Ryan has demonstrated that he knows that trading from a deep bullpen can yield strong marginal gains. Again, Ryan succeeds by letting a player go after piling an injurious amount of stress on his arm.

LaTroy Hawkins (21.1, 16.2): Hawkins is the poster-boy for the “closer mentality.” Just like it is difficult to measure a clutch hitter, but we still know that David Ortiz is one, it is difficult to measure a player who struggles under pressure, but Hawkins is one. He alone could be responsible for overvaluation of the proven closer label. In the five year’s from which this data comes, he had a VORP of 25 or better in three of them (’02-’04) when he was not a closer. When he had to close in ’01 (when he walked almost SEVEN! Per nine innings) and ’05, he couldn’t top a VORP of 8.0.

Denny Hocking (1.0, -3.9): Hocking’s drop from dead-on replacement level was pretty much due to playing more in Colorado. Call me crazy, but I don’t think any rebuilding plan should include players who will NEVER succeed.

Bobby Kielty (13.7, 5.8): Kielty was a legitimate bounty when he was traded for Shannon Stewart in the middle of the 2003 season (for in-season trades, I’m only using the stats from the team where he played the majority of the year). He struggled as a regular in Toronto, but landed them Ted Lilly in a trade with Oakland, who remained infatuated with his plate discipline. Kielty showed improvement when healthy this year, but he’s already 28. He could still improve, but he needs to stay healthy and secure a full-time job.

Doug Mientkiewcz (19.7, 4.8): Doug’s average with the Twins is misleading, as his production fluctuated wildly, from over 38 to 3 runs of VORP before getting traded to Boston. Ryan waited a little too long here, as he fell apart right before getting traded for an A-Ball pitching prospect. But who knew? I was ready to anoint him the no. 2 hitter after his strong walk rate in 2003, but it all fell apart. The worst part is that he isn’t even good defensively any longer. He was average to very good from 2001-2003, saving 28 runs over the three years, but he struggled this season, costing the Mets 4 runs in the field in part-time duty.

Eric Milton (21.2, -3.1): Milton’s splits are extreme: 18.7 VORP with Philadelphia in ’04 and -25.0 this year in Cincinnati. Putting a pitcher whose only really big weakness is the HR in an absolute bandbox is a bad idea for everyone involved. Cincy’s front office is primarily at fault for thinking he could help the team, especially for eight figures. I don’t think we should absolve Milton’s agent, though, as it was a terrible idea to let his client fail so badly. Agents are paid to manipulate data to make it look better, so it’s highly unlikely that his agent didn’t know that Milton would have trouble keeping the ball in the park. Now he stands to make no money after the contract, while he could have signed one more lucrative deal if he signed in a pitcher’s park for the next three years.

Dustan Mohr (3.5, 8.1): My biggest surprise looking back at Mohr’s stats is that he has never had a very good year at all. He’s already entering his age 30 season and his best single-season VORP is only 14.4 with SF. True, he has been better overall since leaving, but his last two years with Minnesota were roughly equal to his ’04-’05 totals.

A.J. Pierzynski (30.2, 16.5): During one of the late season White Sox games on ESPN, the commentators said that Pierzynski had never fit in on any of his previous teams until he got to Chicago. Maybe it’s just me, but I always loved him as a Twin, and got the impression that he was one of the team’s leaders, albeit through a peculiar form of leadership. Perception shapes reality for Pierzynski, as he has basically had the same offensive season the last two years (VORPs of 15.2 and 17.7 respectively), but his season in SF was treated as a disaster, and this year in Chicago has been deemed a success. If he was as disruptive as reported in SF, it’s no wonder that he was reviled. Production is production, though, and he brought nearly as much to the table in both years. Another example of Terry Ryan cutting bait at precisely the right time.

Kenny Rogers (23.8, 35.0): Even though he made a big leap in performance for consecutive years after leaving Minnesota, Rogers probably does not demonstrate the Twins’ failure to get the most out of their players. He was 38 when he came to Minnesota, and thought to be on his last legs. His dominance this year was surprising; his strikeout rate was down and his walk rate was up. There’s the possibility that he pulled a Mike Mussina and added a new pitch just for the hell of it, and it turned out to be a difference maker. It’s also realistic to think that Orel Hershiser is an exceptional pitching coach, but other than that, I’m out of ideas.

Not listed: Michael Nakamura and James Baldwin for a lack of substantial IP.