High Five Friday
NL Wild Card revisited

Barry Bonds steps on the field and everyone assumes that the Giants are back in the pennant race. Never mind that the gap between them and the still ugly Padres is even larger than the gap between Cleveland and Chicago in the AL Central (Chicago is only six games out of missing the playoffs entirely, but would I really prefer the Yankees in the playoffs?). Never mind that Bonds’ return has accompanied upper leg injuries to J.T. Snow, Moises Alou and Jason Schmidt that will substantially offset his rusty value. Never mind that the Padres will have Jake Peavy back for the stretch after a scary sore shoulder threatened to keep him out the rest of the way. I’m as excited as anyone to have Bonds playing again. After all, I plucked him off the fantasy waiver wire a month ago in hopes that he could give me a playoff boost, and it is working. But I’m not buying the Giants as a legitimate postseason contender. Flawed as the NL West has been, the Giants are really flawed, and no one player is going to make a bad team good, especially when he hasn’t played in almost a year.

As for teams that will factor prominently in the pennant race, it seems to be down to three, with Houston, Florida and Philadelphia coming down the stretch after getting there in very different ways.

Both Philly and Florida had disappointing starts and rebounded in the second half, but while Florida did it through offensive catch-up, Philly has a different cast of characters spinning their wheels. Randy Wolf, Jim Thome, Placido Polanco and Marlon Byrd all figured to factor prominently in their drive for the postseason, but the best they have got from any of them is Ugeth Urbina in the Polanco swap. Thome’s offensive contribution before deciding to call it quits on the season was 2.7 runs of VORP, almost identical to what they have got out of Vicente Padilla (2.6).

The loss of Wolf hasn’t killed the pitching rotation due to the surprising contributions of Robinson Tejada, who has accumulated a 3.16 ERA in 84 2/3 IP. He walks more than five batters per nine innings, but makes up for it with a 7+ K rate, and a miniscule .53 HR/9. In other words, baserunners are less valuable when you can’t drive them in.

Chase Utley has also broken through (Philly’s 3rd best 48.8 VORP), softening the blow of losing Polanco in a trade that has sort of worked out for everyone. Polanco has led the AL in batting average since the trade, for what it’s worth to Detroit. Urbina hasn’t been great, allowing over 1.6 HR/9 in 44 IP, but he has struck out batters more frequently than anyone else on the pitching staff (10.96/9), giving the team plenty of innings in which he’s not killing them, a contribution which shouldn’t be understated in the relief-starved NL East. Probably the biggest surprise is Aaron Fultz, who Twins fans will remember for being the lefty mop-up guy who shared time with Old Man Mulholland last year. He has found his groove for Philly, has put up a 2.18 ERA in 66 IP.

Over the last few weeks, they’ll continue to hope Ryan Howard doesn’t have to face too many lefties, Bobby Abreu can start breaking out of his post-derby slugging slump, and nobody falls apart. All in all, they look pretty solid.

Further south in Dolphins Stadium, the field’s namesake may have to share it with Miami’s less favored sons, the Marlins, for a little longer than anticipated. While A.J. Burnett has softened in the last few weeks, Dontrelle and Beckett continue to carry the staff, and some of the call-ups should help mask the offensive attrition of players like Juan Encarnacion and Paul LoDuca.

LoDuca is a remarkable case, famous for second half collapses, and doing nothing to disprove the theory this season. His three year (2002-2004) Pre-ASB/Post-ASB split is .315/.371/.452 before and .236/.288/.334 after. This year, he’s posted a sub-.700 in August as well as September, creating a vortex at the bottom of the lineup (well, anything after Castillo, Cabrera, Delgado, really). They recently called up Josh Willingham who can mash, but probably doesn’t have the glove to survive as a ML catcher, and certainly doesn’t have the bat to compete with Delgado at first.

Furthermore, their rotation continues to walk the Brian Moehler tight-rope, which puts extra pressure on a weak bullpen, if nothing else. With Alfonseca done for the year, Jack McKeon has been kicking around the corpses of Paul Quantrill and Jim Mecir, not exactly the electric arms one may want in order to make a run. But far be it from me to second guess the team that turned Todd Jones’ rotting flesh into the second highest WXRL in the National League.

Houston got an inspired performance from Roger Clemens last night after his mother’s death, leading me to wonder why I only see inspired performances after parent’s deaths by players whom I hate. Bret Favre, Barry Bonds and now Roger Clemens. It’s making feel really insensitive when I know that it’s actually the fault of smarmy programming and tough-guy athletes pretending to show emotion.

Anyway, Houston’s big three continues to dominate while Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler anchor a solid bullpen. Brandon Backe returned this week to give them a legitimate fourth starter, and Jeff Bagwell is even ready to contribute as a pinch hitter. That all looks good enough, but an already thin offense could lose some production from Willy Taveras, who has a bad cut on his middle finger, and Chris Burke, who hurt his shoulder while diving for a ball and will miss several games, all according to Will Carroll. They don’t have much room for error at this point, and even minor injuries could make a big difference.

In their favor, the Astros may have the easiest remaining schedule, facing the Cubs seven times, the Pirates and Brewers each thrice and the Cardinals twice. Florida and Philadelphia play a huge three game set in south Florida this weekend, and each face the Mets and Nats three more times. Philly’s schedule is a little easier, though, as they split their other six games between Atlanta and Cincy, while Florida plays the Braves six more times.

Based on momentum, the Phillies seem like the favorites, as Houston has only won one series all month (a three game sweep of the Phils, which is natural considering their recent history). But I know enough Philadelphia sports fans to remain skeptical, even if they were my preseason pick. As much as I want to pick Philadelphia, I think Houston is the smarter pick, primarily based on their remaining schedule.