Post-Deadline Deals

Last year, St. Louis was running away with the NL Central, putting up monster numbers behind an All-World lineup featuring perhaps the game’s best at 1B, 3B and CF. The team had a solid pitching staff without a real star, but plenty of depth, so Walt Jocketty decided to make up more run differential by trading for another slugger in the person of Larry Walker. The big canuck’s bat exploded for 11 HRs in 150 ABs for the Cards, and he helped carry them to the NL pennant while somehow staying healthy. He has had more back problems this year, but with the organizational depth, the trade has to be considered a big success. But can any team pull off a similar coup this season?

Peter Gammons recently ran an article on players who have cleared waivers featuring names as big as Griffey, Piazza and Sweeney. Of the three, I can only imagine Sweeney getting traded as the Angels find it harder and harder to stay in strong playoff footing. If they put a few games between themselves and the A’s, I would expect Bill Stoneman to behave as he’s used to behaving and keep his current roster. But if they have a rough series or full week, don’t be surprised if they start scapegoating the offense and looking for patches. Despite all of the young talent in the system, young players like Casey Kotchman and especially Dallas McPherson have not lived up to their billing, and the team wants to win now with several aging players like Garrett Anderson, Darin Erstad and Adam Kennedy. Still, Stoneman can play conservatively and compete with Oakland for several seasons with Vlad, Kotchman, McPherson, Ervin Santana and Bartolo Colon. His job now is to figure out just how much greater their run differential needs to be, if at all, and decide if the gains Sweeney can contribute this year outweigh the marginal loss from their prospects in the years to come. Personally, I think it would be a good trade if they gave up two B-B+ prospects for what Sweeney has left, as he would slot in nicely behind Vlad as the team’s second best hitter both in terms of VORP and MLVr. He would probably take most of the PAs away from Jeff Davanon, who has put up a .661 OPS as a primary DH, bad enough to make him blend in with the replacement level.

For all the talk of Griffey going to Chicago and Kenny Williams’ hyperactivity regarding big names, I still can’t accept that he is very likely to be traded. The Sox play in a major market, but have remained cost conscious for several years, and the price tag on Griffey is pretty high for a player with his recent track record. To compare this trade to St. Louis picking up Walker last year makes sense on a couple of levels: team’s with big leads fortifying the offense. The difference is that Griffey fills a real need for the Sox, while the Cards already had a great offense. Ozzie certainly can’t expect much out of Junior’s legs at this point, which would put a serious crimp in his plot to waste as many outs as possible, and he would have to make time around Aaron Rowand, Jermaine Dye, Carl Everett and Scott Podsednik when he returns from the DL. They could easily enough bench Rowand and keep DH’ing crazy Carl, but Ozzie has already started blowing the clubhouse chemistry horn, which makes me believe that they will live and die with what they already have.

A more interesting storyline comes from the players with a higher probability of being dealt. Looking at the teams needing a boost- the NL West besides the Braves, the Astros, the Yankees and the Indians-, almost everyone needs relief pitching. Latroy Hawkins, Steve Kline, Braden Looper and Justin Speier cleared waivers, among others.

The Mets, who put their own closer on waivers, may have the most dire need, fielding only one pitcher with a cumulative WXRL (Expected Wins Added) above 1.0. The rejuvenated Roberto Hernandez comes in at no. 1, but even he has seen his numbers slip as he’s tired in the second half, his ERA going from 1.69 before the break to 5.06 in 16 IP since. The Mets could really use a flame-thrower who can get some easy K’s, but with the recent injuries to Beltran and Cameron, I doubt they will mortgage their future on a reliever for a Wild Card race where they have to pass four other teams.

Across town, the Yankees are another interesting choice, as the Bombers continue mining the wavier wire for anything resembling a major league pitcher. So far, they’ve struck something between aluminum and gold with Aaron Small, and Shawn Chacon has been a valuable short-term pickup as well. But for all the attention paid to the rotation, the bullpen has struggled as well, with Rivera, Gordon, Sturtze and nuthin’. Even Rivera, having a resurgence this year after 2004’s painful memories, has blown 2 saves in the last week, perhaps a sign that age is finally catching up with one of the greatest closers of all time. Their fourth best reliever by WXRL is Buddy Groom, who was released, through a temper tantrum, and has been playing well for the D-Backs ever since. If any team can afford to swallow a few million to take a chance on a former stud like Latroy, I would say it’s the Yankees. Then again, as a Twins fan, I know his history of playing in high leverage situations, and it doesn’t get much higher leverage than Yankee Stadium in autumn.

The Nationals need the least bullpen help, as the addition of Mike Stanton has worked out pretty well for them. Nonetheless, after Chad Cordero’s phenomenal season leading all relievers in WXRL by a wide margin, Ayala, Majewski and Carrasco have all been worked pretty hard. More importantly, there is an abundance of relievers on the market, and Bowden won’t likely let them pass by without making a creative offer or two.

Finally, I think the team with the most to gain by picking up one of these relievers is the Philadelphia Phillies, the team I thought was going to win the Wild Card from the start of the season. Now only a game and a half back of the back-to-Earth Astros, the Phillies have a strong offensive attack highlighted by Abreu, Rollins, Utley, Burrell and Howard. The rotation has been surprisingly solid, with Tejada and Padilla finding their strides at the right time to join LAIMs (league average inning muncher) Jon Lieber and Corey Lidle behind burgeoning ace Brett Myers. Even though the bullpen added Ugeth Urbina earlier in the season, the could do with one more arm in front of Billy Wagner, as only Ryan Madson has been reliable in high leverage situations besides those two. Steve Kline makes sense here, giving the team a strong situational lefty to go in front of a dominant lefty closer. Kline is also unhappy in Baltimore and any change of scenery could help him.

Any of these pickups are unlikely, but they could make the difference between playing in October and going home, so it’s fun and somewhat worthwhile to speculate.