Check Swings

*Jim Thome is set to have season ending surgery to repair his elbow. ESPN is running a poll asking how many more good seasons the 34 year old slugger has left in him. Judging from his list of most comparable players, it sounds like a trick question, because the answer is probably negative 3/4. Three of Thome's four most comparable hitters are Albert Belle (1), Juan Gonzalez (3) and Dick Allen (4), all of whom fell off the planet in their early-mid thirties never to put up productive numbers again. Maybe it was something in Cleveland's water (or scouting department) in the late 90s that made all of these sluggers deteriorate so quickly, as Manny Ramirez is Thome's no. 2 comp, a shiver-inducing thought as Manny transitions into his mid-30s. But results aside, we can easily look at these players and guess that they wouldn't age well. None of them were in particularly good shape, none kept much of a workout routine- unless you count Albert Belle's "sparring" with Fernando Vina-, and they were all lumbering players who relied on hitting homeruns for most of their value, great as it was. But once they started getting a little dinged up and a handful of those homeruns turned into warning track flies, pitchers could start going at them more often, strikeout rates would rise, batting averages would fall with homerun totals, and the value would largely evaporate. Thome's case appears to fit this mold, as his OBP remains a solid .360 through the year, indicating that his plate discipline hasn't faded, just his power. Maybe his elbow is the extent of his problems and he will come back next year with a mean streak, but my guess is that Thome will hang on for a couple of more years a la late Mark McGwire- more a contractual burden than a pinch hitter. But that's what Ed Wade gets for offering a 6 year deal to a plodding 32 year old.

*Scott Boras recently stopped by Baseball Prospectus for a chat, and had this to say about contract holdouts:

"'Renegotiate' is not in my vocabulary. I advise players to consider all the variables, such as injury vs improvement, before they sign a contract. I have had players call me about bad contracts they had signed and I always advise that the sanctity of the contract is important for the survival of any system based on performance. To change it when there is improvement is a double-edged sword that will inevitably lead to degrading the contract when the player malperforms. Unless there is a provision allowing for changes based on performance, anyone who advocates change puts all his clients in jeopardy. It becomes subjective, degrading contracts just as often as improving them, and anarchy results. Terrell Owens argues that the owners have the ability to void his contract at any time. While this seems unjust, this is in the NFL CBA. This is a huge issue that should be raised at the next collective bargaining session, but not in the context of an individual player. Owens knew this provision existed when he signed his contract."

I relay this quotation to you because I completely agree with it, and it sheds some light on the seemingly maniacal approach Boras sometimes takes to negotiation. Even if he keeps minor leaguers from starting their careers, he knows that they're looking at their only guaranteed contract, as draftees still have a low rate of reaching the majors and a lower rate of making it 3 years into arbitration. While a 25 million/year deal is probably ultimately bad for the game, Boras does a lot of good through a) knowing baseball better than any other agent, and b) making his clients fulfill their contractual obligations and show up for spring training and games.

*They Royals called up Denny Hocking this week. Maybe that will be the answer. Two funny Royals jokes from this week. Chris Kahrl, writing on the Hocking call-up, says, "Primal scream therapy's all well and good, but what happens when everyone's gone hoarse?" It's almost funny to think that this team was competitive and had a promising future two years ago with a very similar core of players. They were also outscored by about 70 runs that year, proving that there is value in looking at Pythgoras' evaluations.

The other funny line: Will Carroll commenting on the news that Matt Stairs had strained his calf muscle, "I didn't know Matt Stairs had muscles."

*The Twins are sweepless in Seattle (I'm sorry) after a 14 inning marathon last night that saw Mauer obliterate his mini-slump, Eddie blow his second save of the year to his old mates, and the Twins finally win the game with runs off of once-invincible Jeff Nelson and Bert's personal favorite, Shigetoshi Hasegawa. As long as the playoffs look unreachable, let's remain focused on small victories, like not getting swept and staying over .500. I'm starting to know what it feels like to be a White Sox fan from last year all the way back to, say, 1910.