Limping towards the Cy Young
Santana and the field


The National League has had a pretty spectacular year. Derek Lee chased the Triple Crown realistically for about four months. Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Andruw Jones put up Hall of Fame type seasons in the midst of what may become Hall of Fame careers. The Cy Young race is a brilliant three way slugfest between wildly disparate yet provocative players. The 43 year old legend among those three is even headlining a crazy Wild Card Race that includes an entire division and a team that was one game from last year's World Series.

As a lifelong AL devotee, I feel somewhat embarrassed that my league has fallen so short of all of these marks. Indeed, they have had a solid Wild Card race so far, but all three of the leaders were well under .500 in May, and they all still have noteworthy flaws. The shortcoming on which I'd like to focus today may end up being the biggest bright spot for a Twins fan in a year that could see four huge markets in the playoffs. The AL Cy Young race is a muddy slopfest to the NL's majestic Kentucky Derby, but we'll easily forget that if Johan Santana takes home his second consecutive trophy.

Joe Sheehan took on this same issue at Baseball Prospectus today and came up with the same resolution that I did in a conversation last night: the weak field makes the award Santana's to lose. Now, I'll readily admit that I used this space a couple of months ago to say that Santana was extremely unlikely to repeat the other-wordly dominance of 2004's second half. I even looked prophetic after four consecutive August starts in which he tallied between three and five strikeouts in each game. But in August, Johan has recaptured past brilliance to close in on Roy Halladay for the title of most valuable pitcher in the league. In his last three starts, he has surrendered only one run, that in the ninth inning of a no-hit bid against the White Sox. (That makes me wonder, has anyone other than Johnny Van Der Meer ever started two consecutive games with no hitters into the 8th inning? I guess it doesn't really matter, because Johan doesn't deserve credit for Freddy Garcia's strong outing).

Just looking at the competition, Santana looks like he is in pretty good shape. The other front runners include Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Bartolo Colon. Halladay and Harden have been better on a per-inning basis, but the voters will never pick anyone who made around 25 starts for the whole season and missed a couple of months. I suspect that the White Sox aces will split votes with one another, but even if they don't, neither has the peripherals to measure up to Santana. Garland has 16 wins, but far worse K and ERA numbers than Santana, and Buehrle also trails in those areas, but doesn't even have the win advantage. Like Santana, Colon is having his second consecutive strong second half, and will probably end up being the closest competition for Santana. If the Twins fade, Colon's win total (16 so far) could look pretty good coming from a division champion. I expect Santana to keep the Twins within a stone's throw of the Wild Card the rest of the season, but either way, I'd bet these two in a Cy Young quinella.

Speaking strictly statistically, Santana still trails Roy Halladay in Value Over Replacement Pitcher by about three runs (53-50), a small gap that Santana can probably close in his next start if he stays hot. The Sox have VORP nos. 3, 4 and 6 (Garcia, Buehrle and Garland) with Anaheim's other hot commodity, Jared Washburn checking in at no. 5. Where's Colon? All the way down at no. 8, right behind look-alike Carlos Silva at 7. The rankings here are not that important, though, as the difference between Halladay and Garcia (one and three) is larger the difference between three and sixteen (Radke). The shocking thing about these stats is that Halladay has been that much better than the field in only 19 starts. If they can stay healthy, he and Santana could be competing for Cy Young trophies for the next 5-10 years. In terms of Support Neutral Lineup Adjusted Value Added Against Replacement Level (the number of wins a pitcher has been worth with a fixed lineup/run support against a readily available replacement), Halladay's lead over Santana is 6.1 to 5.3 with Colon climbing to no. 3 and Oakland's pair of Harden and Zito catapulting over Chicago's troika, leaving no Stocking in the top 6.

Dominant as Halladay has been, he needs to make seven or eight more starts before the BBWAA will consider him a legitimate candidate, and time just doesn't permit as he continues recovering from a broken leg. Santana's the next best thing, and may end up as the best if Halladay is stuck on the shelf much longer, so don't be surprised if a second consecutive the second Venezuelan Cy Young winner happens much more quickly than the first.