Monday, October 31, 2005

Ranking the Champs
World Series Winners Since 1985


After the White Sox won the World Series, there was an interesting discussion at espn.com, including a column deeming them the best champion of the last 20 years, and a poll where they came in third, behind the 2004 Red Sox and 1998 Yankees, in order. Naturally, there is some sort of proximity bias, which is why we think Tiger Woods is better than Jack Nicklaus. A few years ago, these same people were saying the ’98 Yankees were the greatest team of all time, which means that the three best teams ever were assembled in the last eight years. Realistically, we’re overrating recent performances, so I tried to come up with some sort of objective way of comparing teams from recent seasons.

Since all the teams involved are already World Champions, I wanted to heavily weigh regular season performance; dominance over a long stretch compounds their postseason success. I also incorporated individual performance, because teams with star power are more memorable, which is something like “greater” in terms of baseball teams. As it works out, my formula basically ranks the champions in order of regular season wins, with small adjustments for fluky postseasons, lucky wins and star-studded lineups.

To calculate a Championship Score start with zero points, then make the following adjustments:

Add 3 points for each regular season win above 90.
Add 1 point for each Pythagorean win above actual regular win, subtract one for each one below.
Subtract 1 point for each regular season win below 90.
Subtract 5 points if not a division winner.
Subtract 1 point for each LCS/WS loss.
Add ½ point for each regular season win over 90 by LCS/WS opponent, subtract ½ point for each one below.
Add 3 points for each MVP/Cy Young winner.
Add 2 points for ROY winner.
Add 1 point for each All-Star.
Add 1 point for each Gold Glove.
Add 1 point for each 50-75 VORP player, 2 points for each 75-100, 3 points for each 100+.

As it works out, here is the top 20:

20. 1987 Minnesota, -2.5: This team probably did not belong in the playoffs. They’re still the only team to make the playoffs while being outscored in the regular season, which contributed to their negative Championship Score. Viola and Blyleven got hot at the right time, and they got unlikely contributions from dogs like Tim Laudner.

19. 1997 Florida, 1.5: The ’97 Marlins were the team for whom Wayne Huizenga bought a title. Still, the only memorable parts were Luis Castillo’s game winning hit in game 7 and Livan Hernandez winning the series MVP. Neither signed as a free agent, and Castillo’s still there 9 years later despite the firesale.

18. 2003 Florida, 2.5: It’s dubious to have two of the three worst World Champions as your only two titles in history. Still, they’re World Championships, so nobody will complain. This iteration had precious little star power, with only the pre-2005 Derek Lee.

16.t 2000 New York (A), 4.5: After two straight World Championships, the Yankees collapsed in 2000 before a hot second half got them in the playoffs. By the time they reached the Series to play their rivals from Queens, there was enough psychological intimidation that the Mets wilted in 5.

16.t 1995 Atlanta, 4.5: I was surprised that the Braves only title came in so low on the list. This group came along before Andruw Jones, but they had a young Chipper Jones, Javy Lopez and Steve Avery to go with one of the best Greg Maddux seasons from his run of dominance.

15. 1996 New York (A), 10: The birth of the Yankee dynasty was a different monster, with Mariano Duncan leading the offense in VORP, and journeymen like Joe Girardi and Gerald Williams playing an important role. The current crop of homegrown Yankees was mostly up at this point, and they’ve pretty much given up on that strategy, making one costly mistake after another.

14. 1985 Kansas City, 14: George Brett and Bret Saberhagen led the team past their Missouri brethren to make these Royals the only champs from the last 20 years to go seven in both the LCS and WS.

13. 1990 Cincinnati, 17: This team was not supposed to be in the World Series, four games later, Mike Gallego of the A’s said in shock that they weren’t supposed to lose the series. Here’s another Mariano Duncan sighting, this time getting Lou Piniella his ring, excusing tirades for 15 years longer.

12. 2001 Arizona, 19.5: No other team had as good of a 1-2 punch in the starting rotation as Schilling and Johnson. The ’87 Twins had Viola and Blyleven, the ’04 Red Sox had Schilling and Martinez, and the ’00 Yankees had Clemens and Pettite (familiar, eh?). One of the more memorable Game 7’s in recent memory featured both of them coming together to take down the Yankee dynasty.

11. 1991 Minnesota, 20.5: Speaking of memorable seventh games… This Twins team was a legitimate champion, getting a little lucky that the A’s had something of a down year in the middle of a pretty dominant run.

The countown from 10-1 will be up tomorrow.