Wednesday, October 19, 2005

If Not For You
The Best of 2005

If you are reading this, there is a fair chance that you have some interest in what I have to write about baseball. Perhaps, if I'm especially lucky, you have some respect for my knowledge/analysis of the game. Certainly not on the level of a Jim Souhan or Jay Mariotti of the BBWAA, but maybe I should fill out a sort of award ballot anyway. But I’ve written at length about several awards, so I prefer to discuss some of the more memorable storylines of the 2005 season through a cheesy gimmick. With an emphasis on the Minnesota in Minnesota Baseball Central, I’m using Bob Dylan lyrics as inroads to some of the best stories of the year past. While I fully realize how far I’m straying from the point of these lyrics, I have an intuition that Mr. Dylan won’t much care (read: notice). So, with a nod to Bill Simmons for the award format (not to mention the several-edition column length), here are some of my favorite personalities and events of 2005.

“And the Good Samaritan is dressing; he’s getting ready for the show. He’s going to the carnival, on desolation row.” –Desolation Row

For Bud Selig, who stood by and watched baseball players abuse steroids for a decade before he finally became holier than thou and put the kibosh on the MLBPA. Begat by someone who negotiates with labor unions, I’m familiar with the travails of contractual drug testing. I’m not even criticizing Selig’s policies; the one he brought before Congress might be a great idea, and we’re already seeing some results from the currently codified program. Instead, I cannot get the image out of my mind of a smug Selig testifying that he has worked to keep steroids out of the game and that he thinks that they are a scourge for baseball. We found out after the fact that Raffy Palmeiro was lying and he got more negative press than Kevin Federline. We knew Selig was lying as he testified, and he was praised for his testimony. More than anything, the reaction shows just how low the bar is now set for Selig: he has screwed up so badly that we now expect him to lie and manipulate and disappoint from the outset. He’s much like George Bush in that respect, I keep going back and forth between thinking he’s a tremendous jackass and thinking he’s remarkably incompetent.

“Pointed threats, they bluff with scorn. Suicide remarks are torn from the fool's gold mouthpiece. The hollow horn plays wasted words, proves to warn that he not busy being born, is busy dying.”

And

“Advertising signs that con you into thinking you're the one that can do what's never been done, that can win what's never been won. Meantime life outside goes on all around you.” –It’s Alright, Ma (I’m Only Bleeding)

For two managers experiencing big letdowns, Lou Pinella an Dusty Baker, respectively.

First, it’s hard not to feel sorry for Pinella, who basically turned water into wine in St. Pete, squeezing everything possible out of those Devilish Rays. He somehow managed to throw his players down a staircase while maintaining their loyalty when he started complaining that the front office did not make good on their pledge to increase payroll. Think about that, he’s telling his players that they’re not good enough to win, but they respected him enough that they empathized rather than staging a mutiny. He stuck with Scott Kazmir and started seeing results near the end. He gave Johnny Gomes a chance to play despite a Dunn-y K-rate, and was rewarded with an OPS above .900 and a HR every 16 ABs. He even got Jorge Cantu and Julio Lugo to look like one of the better keystone combos south of Baltimore. But he never got his extra payroll, so he was stuck using players who either were not ready yet, (Seth McClung, Joey Gathright) never will be ready (Mark Hendrickson, Damon Hollins), or are ready for their pills and tapioca (Hideo Nomo, Eddie Perez). Still, there’s no reason to cry for Sweet Lou, since he’ll probably be making a star manager’s salary on top of his cool $2.2m buyout in 2006.

As for Dusty, it seems like just yesterday that he was bolting the Bay Area for the chance to be the guy who finally wins it all on the North Side. Now, he’s the second highest-profile manager in his own city. After coming within Steve Bartman of making the World Series, the Cubs have fallen on hard times, losing huge chunks of playing time from Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Nomar Garciaparra and Scott Williamson this year. In their stead, Dusty found plenty of top-of-the-order PAs for Neifi Perez and Corey Patterson, effectively killing Derek Lee’s shot at the RBI portion of the Triple Crown. Even with Lee’s monster season, Chicago only manager 79 wins and pulled the buyer-to-seller metamorphosis by acquiring then dealing Matt Lawton over the course of several weeks. Dusty wasn’t at the bottom of every category, though, as he did a far better job than any other manager at abusing his pitchers, especially those who are still vulnerable to long-term injuries. Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior finished behind only Livan “Who’s playing for second?” Hernandez in terms of Pitcher Abuse Points in all of MLB. Kerry Wood may have joined them at the top of the list had not the abuse of seasons past done their work on his sinews. Even if the Cubs remained healthy next year, it would be hard to imagine them rallying around Dusty Baker. Maybe it’s time to hand over the reigns to his son, who has him beat by a mile in the precociousness category.

“It’s a shame the way she makes me scrub the floor. No, I ain’t gonna work on Maggie’s farm no more.” –Maggie’s Farm

For Ryan Howard, who finally got a chance to hit in the Major Leagues and made sure he’ll never have to do any more work down on the farm. He finished with the highest VORP among National League rookies, hitting 41 XBHs in 88 games. When teams decided not to let proven studs Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu kill them in the second half of the season, walking them a combined 107 times in 637 PAs, Howard picked up the slack to lead the team in slugging and OPS. With a core of Howard, Utley, Burrell, Abreu and Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup of players in or near their primes for next year.

The problem, of course, is Jim Thome’s situation, which accounts for Howard’s partial season. Already spending all of 2004 in AAA and behind Thome when he was probably ready for the majors, Howard faced more time in the minors and a potential trade until Thome broke down. Now, Philly is on the hook for three more years of Thome’s huge deal. Sure, he was a masher when Philly dangled those extra years to lure him away from Cleveland, but now he’s 35, clearly diminished, and rehabbing a severe injury. Big and slow players can age very quickly, and Thome has fallen from the face of the team a calendar year ago to being an albatross whose salary will burden the team in a search for rotation help. The Phillies will try to trade Thome this off-season, but will likely have to cover about 2/3 of his salary and will get precious little in return. The worst case scenario is that Philly can’t find a taker for Thome, keeps him, and Charlie Manuel feels obliged to play the big-ticket item ahead of Howard.

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