A Horse of a Different Color

Far be it from a team as primed for contention as the Boston Red Sox to let a little matter such as not having a General Manager get in the way of pulling off the biggest blockbuster trade of the season. With the Rangers on the verge of bringing one of the best young starters in baseball to the American League, the Red Sox took a page out of the Yankees’ book and came in under the radar to make him all theirs. More than watching the trade itself play out, I’m excited to hear Larry Lucchino echo Steinbrenner’s “I can understand that the Rangers must be upset that they didn’t close the deal” comment, with Tom Hicks calling Boston the Evil Empire. But that’s how it’s going these days, isn’t it? The Yankees are telling Johnny Damon they’re not interested in a long-long-long term deal and refusing a third year on Flash Gordon. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are in on every free agent and raiding their farm system for immediate gratification. In baseball, though, restraint is not always the better part of valor, and the Sox see an opportunity to seize the year (2006) with lots of incomplete AL contenders and a weak free agent market.

Before I leave the subject of the farm system, the prospects they sent to Ft. Lauderdale’s retirement community are worth mention. Obviously the trade was motivated by a win-now mentality, devaluing the future value of today’s prospects, but Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez are two of the most prized prospects in the system. When Theo Epstein took over, he refocused the team’s draft strategy to load up on prospects, accumulating pitchers like Sanchez, Jon Papelbon, John Lester, Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen to go with Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia up the middle. Ramirez was supposed to be the guy at SS, but he was far from ready when the need came about after Nomar/Cabrera’s contract expired after 2004, so they signed Edgar Renteria who will stand in the way of Ramirez for several years. Moreover, Ramirez looked less than brilliant at AA Portland this year, batting .271/.335/.385 and going HITLESS in, well, two at bats with the big club. He’s still only 22 with lots of room for improvement, but Florida’s mantra of looking to the future better be true of they want Ramirez to be a key contributor. Sanchez is in the same boat, dominating at high-A Wilmington before becoming noticeably more hittable at Portland, still putting up solid peripherals: more than a strikeout per inning, 16 BBs and 5 HR in 57 IP. Still, the guy who draws comparisons to Pedro Martinez (mainly for his 6’, 175 lb stature) is a work in progress. The guy the Sox kept, Jon Lester is about a year ahead of Sanchez in progressing, absolutely dominating AA, albeit with a less than optimal BB rate.

The trade isn’t about the prospects, though; it’s about Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. The Sox willingness to pay $18 mil for Lowell over the next two years got them Beckett, which doesn’t sound so bad if you consider that Beckett won’t make nearly that much money ($2.4 mil), so they’re really getting both for about $23 mil over the next two years. Since Beckett’s market value is easily better than $10 mil for each of two years, taking a gamble on an old third baseman with a good glove could be worse. Plus, the Sox could use an insurance policy if Kevin Youkilis falters.

The addition of Beckett gives them an extremely deep rotation that will probably look quite a bit different by opening day. As it currently stands, their starting rotation could look like this (’05 VORP in parentheses):

Curt Schilling (1.3)
Josh Beckett (36.2)
Matt Clement (21.6)
Bronson Arroyo (16.9)
Tim Wakefield (32.9)
David Wells (24.1)

I say that the rotation will look different for a few reasons. First, David Wells wants out, and the team is trying to trade him to San Diego, leaving them with five real starters. With Wakefield and Schilling both at least 39 years old, and Schilling’s health still a very open question, they will probably want additional assurance, possibly in the form of a mid-level free agent starter. Don’t expect a return engagement with Wade Miller, though, as he sorely disappointed Red Sox Nation last season, and his health is hardly a sure thing either.

On Sunday, I endorsed the possible Blalock iteration of this deal, saying that Blalock is overrated and its worth cashing in good prospects for good young players, as Beckett has already achieved what Danks/Diamond/Lester/Sanchez all aspire to become. Similarly, Hank Blalock’s production would be a pretty good-case scenario for Hanley Ramirez’s development. I think this trade is even better for the Beckett receivers, but it also seems a bit foreboding, as the new Red Sox regime needs to show the same commitment to player development that Epstein did to infuse their veteran roster with cheap talent. Otherwise, they’ll be stuck in the recent Yankee dilemma of having to constantly spend more and more money on role players like Tony Clark and Kenny Lofton whose salaries eventually hamstrung them out of the Beltran sweepstakes.