Check Swings
Before the Ink Dries

It is hard to like a deal that commits more than $40 million to a player who will play in about 4-5% of all of his team’s innings, and that’s exactly what the Mets and Blue Jays have gotten themselves into. Even the people who worship the proven closer have been pretty accurate in their descriptions of Ryan’s 5-year, $47 million coup with Toronto, saying they had to overpay in years and cash to make other free agents perceive the Rogers Centre as a desirable destination. Does anyone remember Detroit doing the same thing after 2003, then failing to have a winning record anyway? Or the Orioles, also needing about 15-20 more wins to compete for the division, signing Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez, and failing to compete for the next two years? The Jays have a long way to go, and it is going to take a lot more than a marginal upgrade at closer (Batista blew some saves, but he wasn’t 5 wins worse than Ryan) to catch up to Boston and New York, both of whom will certainly try to be upwardly mobile targets as well.

That said, Ryan should be a good pitcher in Toronto. He came into his own at age 27, which is about right for a power pitcher. He blows hitters away, increasing his STUFF rating, which gives a standardized score of HR/9, BB/9 and K/9, for the last three years, topping out at 42 (league average is set at 10). Moreover, the Jays have their fingers in all sorts of discussions, from Brian Giles to play RF, to a very serious negotiation process with A.J. Burnett, either of whom would get them on the fringe, but still not squarely in the AL East race. The truly disturbing part about the deal is how the Canadian exchange rate is setting the market for other players. Part of the reason Ryan’s deal look so inflated, just like Carlos Delgado’s big Toronto contract did, is that Canadian money is worth less than American money, and there is a much higher tax rate. Since most players don’t go northward seeking free healthcare or prescription drug coverage, the Jays (and Raptors in basketball) have to overcompensate. That’s all fine and good, but it sets the market for other free agents and for arbitration cases who don’t bother calculating the exchange rate. In other words, an off-season that looked costly may have just legitimated the owners’ concern regarding their own fiscal irresponsibility

-----

It wasn’t long before the next show fell, either, with Omar Minaya scurrying to spend more money for more years than anyone else can manage. Since I started watching baseball, three pitchers stick out for looking like their arms were perpetually about to rip off at the shoulder like in SNL’s old “All-Steroid Olympics” sketch. Maybe it was the absolutely filthy stuff of Doc Gooden, Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner, or their smaller-than-average frames, but I just never trusted any of these guys to stay healthy for more than about a week at a time. Felix Hernandez could easily jump into that class, albeit with a much larger frame. I don’t think the concern is one about mechanics so much as my own perception of overexertion, colored by injury histories for each player. Since Gooden is out of baseball (busy hanging out with Michael Irvin?), the Mets had to settle for committing more than $100 million to the other two in long term deals.

After a two year stop in Philadelphia, where he was fragile but dominant, Wagner packs his bags for Queens. He has settled into a groove since his first major surgery where he strikes out about 1.2 batters per IP, limits his walks, but can’t pitch more than 80 innings. The Mets bullpen was so bad last year that paying for four years of an injury-prone 34 year old is not that disheartening, but they need to troll for cheap relievers to fill in the middle innings; the Bobby Jenks and Cliff Polites of the world. Even with the additions of Delgado and Wagner, the Mets can expect regression from Pedro, Glavine and Cliff Floyd, who were all very important. They will be very good, but they cannot keep tying themselves to a piano by batting Reyes leadoff, leaving Aaron Heilman for dead in the bullpen and starting Kaz Ishii and Victor Zambrano. A year ago, everyone was excited about Willie Randolph. Now, he may be standing between his players and a division title.

-----

To me, the most intriguing singing so far has been the A’s picking up Esteban Loaiza for three years at $21 million. I don’t see where the market inefficiency is in this year’s market for late-blooming products of RFK who fill the need as an 8th starter. Indeed, Oakland already has Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Kirk Saarloos, Joe Kennedy and Dan Meyer as potential starters for next year before bringing in Loaiza, who had a 4.71 ERA away from RFK last year based on higher BB and lower K totals. So how do they pare that down to five by opening day? Kennedy and Saarloos are easily dismissed to the bullpen, as they were for much of last season. Meyer could be sent back to AAA for one more year of seasoning after he started 2005 injured and put up disappointing stats (5.36 ERA in 83 IP). Still, it is hard to look at the deal without thinking that Billy Beane is trying to maneuver himself in to a blockbuster deal where he trades Zito for the scary monster his lineup needs. He has even backed off of his no-trade stance, now saying that, "I wouldn't necessarily read into it that it's a precursor to anything coming down the pike," instead of roundly dismissing the rumors as he has in the past. Additionally, the concern around trading Zito a year ago was that his value was too low coming off of a sub-par season. Now, with a better year under his belt, he looks even more attractive; maybe even better than Mulder did on last year’s market, adjusting for the supply of starting pitchers and their established value. In any case, I would be surprised if Oakland’s last big move of the off-season was the Loaiza signing.