Too Much Money-ball

Say what you will about parity and competitive balance, but the balance of power in the American League still rests in Boston and New York. Two of the last three pennants, a World Championship and six playoff appearances make a pretty good case for their dominance. Even if the media has yet to convince you that the Sox and Yankees are the foci around which the baseball world revolves, you have to admit that the AL East does not exhibit the kind of revolving door at the top that many other divisions have. J.P. Riccardi seems determined to reverse that trend in Toronto, though, paying top dollar for a couple of the most highly regarded free agents on the market. He has been vociferously criticized in recent weeks for spending over $100 million on two pitchers with track records as long as Jerry Falwell’s rap sheet. The question remains, even if the acquisitions pay off, will it get the Blue Jays over the hump in the AL East?

To start with, Riccardi definitely started by looking at last year’s standings and projecting forward to 2006. With New York and Boston tied atop the division, Toronto finished third yet again, this time at 80-82, 15 games behind the leaders. Accounting for a few games lost to regression, and making the bold assumption that the big market teams’ new pickups do not make a positive difference, Toronto would have to win at least 10 more games to compete next year. The only team with at least 75 wins in 2004 to make that kind of improvement in 2005 was the White Sox, and their breakthrough of 16 games would get Toronto to New York and Boston’s 2005 level. But Riccardi probably was not looking just at raw standings, but at the performance behind those wins and losses. Boston and New York both finished above their Pythagorean win prediction, based on runs scored and runs allowed. Adjusting for outside factors, Boston should have won 91, New York 90 and Toronto 89, making the Blue Jays one of the most unlucky teams in 2005 and most likely to rebound in 2006. Factor in the widely-held belief that the bullpen can disproportionately skew the actual wins and losses due to high leverage situations, and it isn’t surprising that about half of Riccardi’s cache went to (maybe) the best closer on the market.

Getting back last year’s unlucky losses will not be enough, though, since they have to make up two games to catch Boston, who had some bad breaks of their own in 2005. Say, modestly, that the Sox win as many games next year as they did this year, and the Jays have to win six more games than they should have won last year. Their three acquisitions so far, Burnett, Ryan and Overbay, will probably be joined by at least one more new bat (unless they choose to keep Overbay, Hillenbrand, Koskie and Hinske to share two positions). For now, let’s see if there is any way for these three to get six more wins over what they got out of the same positions last year.

Burnett, the biggest name of the group, has a 4.16 career Runs Average, posting a 4.18 RA last year, about 8% better than league average. Translating that number to the AL, Burnett projects to a 4.33 RA for Toronto without adjusting for the move out of a very pitcher friendly park. If Burnett replaces David Bush’s 4.82 RA (since Bush was sent to Milwaukee for Overbay), he would save about 7.5 runs in the same number of innings pitched. Given more innings, he could be worth one full win in the rotation. For a team that has not paid a premium for marginal wins over the last several years, paying more than $10 million this year for an absolute maximum of two wins seems steep.

Ryan is an easier comparison, coming from the same division and probably joining a similar bullpen while replacing Miguel Batista. B.J. Ryan was worth 3.375 Expected Wins Over Replacement last season in Baltimore, but Batista is an accomplished major leaguer, easily above replacement level. Well, not that easily, as Batista managed only a .862 WXRL, right below the maligned Yhency Brazoban and behind three of the Jays other relievers. Simply substituting Ryan gains the Jays 2.513 wins. Call it 2.5, and the Jays are again paying an unprecedented premium for a couple of wins.

Finally, Overbay is a more difficult case, since it is not yet clear whose at bats he will be taking. Presumably, his ABs would trade off with either Hinkse’s or Hillenbrand’s since Koskie doesn’t play first base. Overbay’s 33.3 VORP for Milwaukee last year is almost identical to Hillenbrand’s 32.5, which led Toronto’s meager offensive output. Compared to Hinske’s 17.1, he could be worth about 1.5 wins offensively. Overbay is known as a solid defender, a reputation which squares with the numbers, as his 110 rate2 last year is the same as his career number. Over a full season, his glove could be worth 10-12 runs over Hillenbrand’s and 20 runs over Hinske’s, which looks especially valuable after spending $50 million on a groundball starter. All told, it would not be impossible for Overbay to be the most marginally valuable of the three, providing somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.5 wins.

Taken optimistically, Riccardi’s moves do not seem quite as inexplicable. The most important adjustment is based on the run differentials from last year, which paint a much better picture of the future than their actual record. When taken individually, each acquisition could be worth a win or two, even up to a combined seven or eight wins if everything breaks just right. With a strong pitching staff coming back (featuring a healthier Roy Halladay and an NL East leading 705 runs allowed), they could ascend into contention with the sluggers, and many fans would argue that relevance is well worth the extra money.