A Whole New Luis

The news of the day: Terry Ryan finally blinks and decides to spend his copious pitching assets on some offense. As Twins fans, we are naturally biased to like the trade at first glance, but I am pretty confident that the trade will look just as good a month from now, and, more importantly, at the end of the 2006 season. In a nutshell, the Twins got someone who can hit and field for a couple of indistinguishables in their arm-rich system. Let’s take a look at the component parts, starting with Scott Tyler and Travis Bowyer.

Tyler is a hard thrower with a big body (6’5”, 265 lbs), the type of reliever who can be very fun to watch. He spent the season at high-A ball, starting 23 games and pitching 118 innings. On the bright side, he struck out 109 batters, a strong indicator for success at higher levels. On the other hand, he walked 48, a ratio of 3.7 per nine innings, which is probably too high for a major league starter. Coupled with concerns over his 18 HR allowed, scouts project him as a big league reliever with a live arm. That sounds familiar.

Bowyer is a similar case, but a couple years further along in his development. This hard throwing, big bodied righty saved 23 games in AAA before an unsuccessful September call-up. Between two levels, he totaled 108 Ks and 43 BBs in 85 IP, striking similar to Tyler at a higher level, although he gave up only 7 HRs, 3 of which came in 9 big league innings. Bowyer touched 100 on the radar gun in the Arizona Fall League, but speed isn’t everything, as he was lit up for almost two hits per inning and a 9.39 ERA. Florida GM Larry Beinfest said he plans to use Bowyer in the Marlins’ bullpen next year, and his named has been bandied about as a potential closer of the future. He needs another pitch, though, as he has reportedly given up on his change and needs plenty of work on his slurvy breaking pitch so he won’t keep getting rocked at higher levels- his MLB and AFL stints combined for 38 hits and 7 HRs allowed in only 25 IP. Still, with a little work, he has a ton of upside, and I was excited to see him fill the Matt Guerrier role as developmental mop-up project for the Twins this year.

That’s not to say I’m upset with the deal, though, as the Twins got back a good patch for one of their gaping holes. Castillo was worth 27.7 runs of VORP last season despite missing about 30 games with nagging leg trouble (troublesome in its own right). In full playing time, alternate second base pipedream Alfonso Soriano posted a 47.8 VORP while the best Twin was Luis Rodriguez at 4.6. Soriano and Castillo were basically the same player in terms of EQA (Soriano leading .283 to .281), which adjusts for playing time and ballpark, which indicates that Soriano’s extra at-bats and better run-scoring environment (league, ballpark, lineup) were the only differences between the two. If both are healthy in 2006, they would put up roughly the same total contribution to the Twins. And that is without considering Soriano’s cost to the team, which could be as high as $10 million, Francisco Liriano and about 30 runs in the field. All told, Castillo is better than any second baseman on the market in a walk, and a far better deal than anyone who could be had in a trade.

Castillo has his warts, though, as his legs have lots of mileage on them. He who once stole at least 50 bases in consecutive years has been reduced to 10-20 steals and lingering questions about the health of his legs. He avoided the DL last year, but thrice sat out at least seven consecutive games with minor injuries. He’s already on the wrong side of 30, meaning he has probably seen his best days, but his upside includes a .300 average, 75 BBs, 140 games and a glove that has improved every year since 1998 in terms of fielding rate. Offensively, he’s a switch hitting Shannon Stewart at the time the Twins acquired him, and that worked out pretty well. Factor in his Gold Glove defense up the middle and a very modest $5 million price tag, and he will make a major difference. His top comps are the all field, no hit Harold Reynolds and the all hit, no field Jose Offerman. Let’s hope he can split the desirable part of the difference.

How major will that difference be, though? The Twins have to make up about 100 runs next year, and it would be hard to shave much off of their 662 runs allowed, only 19 from the league lead. The league averaged 771 runs scored and the Twins scored 688, so becoming a league average offensive team would probably approximate contention in the AL Central, with Chicago due for a regression to the 90-95 win range and Cleveland losing out on many of their top FA targets. Castillo can probably be counted on to add 30 runs over what they got out of 2B last year, which is a great start when combined with a pie-in-the-sky rebound projection for Morneau. But they cannot give up yet, as they still have pretty big holes at DH and either RF or 3B, depending on where Cuddyer doesn’t land. With Frank Thomas potentially in the works and Bill Mueller in the back of everyone’s mind, the Twins could look pretty rickety in 2006, but with much more on-base and overall offensively potential.

This subject probably deserves more attention, and I promise that I will give it its due, but I’m 12 hours from the LSAT, and miles to go before I sleep.