Blue in the Face

Los Angeles Dodgers
2005 Record- 71-91, Pythagorean Record- 73-89
Notable Gains- Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal, Bill Mueller, Kenny Lofton, Brett Tomko, Jae Seo
Notable Losses- Milton Bradley, Jeff Weaver (not yet signed)

Last time I wrote here, I talked about how the Texas Rangers wisely swapped one player for another in a well-planned roster makeover following the installment of a new GM. Another western team has overhauled its roster after adding a new GM and stands to make similar strides in the standings, but with an altogether different methodology. After Frank McCourt’s knee jerked faster than an overprotective parent after curfew, the door hit Paul DePodesta squarely in the ass on his way out the door, taking his 71 wins with him. In a move that would have been sacrilegious a half-century ago, the Dodgers swooped in on the Giants’ number two man, Ned Colletti who brought with him the “win now” mentality that we all attributed to the presence of an aging Barry Bonds in San Francisco. Surrounding Bonds with Alou, Vizquel, Grissom and other aging- no, OLD- free agents makes sense with the clock ticking, but Los Angeles is a different situation. The Dodgers won 93 games in ’04 and 85 in ’03, hardly a self-destruct-worthy recent history. Additionally, they have a strong crop of minor league pitchers and some star hitters drafted under DePodesta’s watch. Last year was an aberration caused by substantial injuries to many regulars, including J.D. Drew, Milton Bradley, Cesar Izturis, Jose Valentin, Odalis Perez and Eric Gagne.

Still, Colletti made his mark. Furcal was one of the stronger signings of the offseason, getting Jimmy Rollins money for a more reasonable duration. At 27, Furcal will just be leaving his prime at the end of the contract, leaving another big payday in his future. Also, this season’s free agent market was so bloated that almost any signing would be a mistake in the long term, so short term contracts minimize the mistakes. Furcal is about a six win player, as his WARP scores from 2002-2004 hover around that threshold before booming to nine last season. His batting stats have stayed relatively constant while his fielding stats improved, making me think he will settle somewhere in between- probably not worth $13 million a year, but better than the six win/year Jimmy Rollins at the same price with more upside and a shorter commitment. The Dodgers have caught some flak for overloading their infield with Mueller (third or second), Garciaparra (third, short or first), Izturis (short or second), Kent (second or first) and Furcal (short or second). Yes, that makes five players for four positions- six, counting the shamefully neglected Hee Seop Choi- with Izturis returning from the DL sometime around June. But with the injury histories of Garciaparra and Mueller combined with Izturis’ recent trouble and Kent’s age makes the depth and versatility much more of a solution than a problem. Seriously, who thinks all of these players will be healthy all season? Credit Colletti with using the Dodgers’ extra cash to cover for injury risks, perhaps DePodesta’s one fatal shortcoming.

Similarly, the pitching staff had lots of interchangeable parts last year- groundball pitchers who avoid HRs but don’t strikeout many batters, like Lowe, Penny and Weaver. On the other hand, their young fill-ins like Edwin Jackson and Derek Houlton were not ready and they fell into trouble when Odalis Perez and Brad Penny missed a few starts. Colletti brought in Brett Tomko and Jae Seo, relatively cheap options in a market where starters were extremely expensive. Once again, injuries to their best pitchers will require Houlton or Jackson to step up, but they are more likely to do so with another year of experience under their belts. If Weaver resigns, which is still a possibility, the starting pitching will be a position of strength. The bullpen is similarly top-heavy, but Eric Gagne is a pretty strong top if he returns from his second Tommy John surgery. Something tells me this is another position that Colletti will fortify in the near future.

All told, I expect the Dodgers to gain at least 10 wins, maybe more. But I’m not sure the changes wouldn’t have come with Paul DePodesta in the front office. Certainly, he was dedicated to long term success, a path Colletti may not follow, but Colletti has leveraged the city’s revenue for success now. A return to health by the team’s biggest stars will play a big role, but Colletti has put them in a position to contend in an extremely weak division. Basically, he was making good on Gagne’s plea from the end of last season: “We're the fucking Dodgers. We should be like the Yankees. The Yankees don't rebuild. They go out and get what they need to win.... I don't want to be here if we're just going to play kids and rebuild. Yeah, I put my name on a contract, and I respect that. But the Dodgers' logo was on top of that contract—not the Milwaukee Brewers or the Las Vegas 51s. It's an embarrassment to the city. It's an embarrassment to the fans. It's and embarrassment to everyone who came before us and wore the Dodger unfirom to have a year like this.”