A Good First Impression

For the past week, I have found delight in a remarkably slow-paced life in the margins of the Berkshires in northern Connecticut. I’m staying in a House of Usher look-alike and meeting more sculptors than I knew existed. It has been relaxing and peaceful, but, to most of the people here, “hot stove” is not a figurative term but a reason to try out a new Swedish wood-chopping technique. Luckily, this whole internet fad was not lost on the hippie crowd, so I have been able to keep up with all of the exciting baseball developments. Unfortunately, the biggest news from the last few days was Eric Byrnes signing with Arizona, and while it led me to contemplate the fate of Luis Terrero, I soon tired of that morsel.

But then it occurred to me that transaction news has slowed because most teams have started rounding into 2006 form. Newspapers recently proclaimed the completion of the Twins’ off-season shopping list, and many other teams appear to be in the same boat. In fact, we are rapidly approaching spring training, with only five or six more weeks until pitchers and catchers report. While some questions remain, such as the destinations of Funky Ben Molina and Jeff Weaver and that empty pasture next to Manny Ramirez in Boston, others have been answered sufficiently to begin the prognostications. Some power shifts are obvious, like the direct transfer of wins from Florida to New York in the NL East and the strides that Toronto had better make after mortgaging their future for right now, but others are more discreet. In the next several columns (whenever they may come), I will look more deeply at a couple of teams that stand to make large gains and others that will struggle to get back to ’05 form, especially where it may not be so obvious. First, I will break down the changes for a pair of teams from the West whose fans may not be excited enough.

Texas Rangers
2005 Record- 79-83, Pythagorean Record- 82-80
Notable Gains: Brad Wilkerson, Adam Eaton, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Termel Sledge
Notable Losses: Alfonso Soriano, Chris Young

For an internal promotion, Jon Daniels didn’t take long to shake up the roster and show that the Rangers are interested in winning immediately. They have stiff competition in the AL West from the A’s and defending division champion Angels, but Texas is within a stone’s throw of Wild Card contention and could even push Oakland for the division if a few things break their way.

Most noteworthy were the pickups that Daniels made for the pitching staff. Millwood fits well in Arlington as an innings eater who gets enough groundballs (1.34 GB/FB last year) and has had success avoiding homeruns in a bandbox from his time in Philly (posting his best translated HR/9 rate in Citizens Bank Park). Padilla comes from that same stadium, but has had more trouble avoiding homeruns. Padilla replaces the bottom of the Rangers’ rotation, so he doesn’t need to revert to his five win form of 02-03 to be valuable; his 2.8 WARP from last year is all gravy compared to last year’s mess. Young and Eaton may match one another this year in terms of performance, but Eaton has more of a track record and has room for improvement after pitching last year with a finger injury- any injury that prevents a curveball pitcher from throwing a curveball is especially damaging. Young started strong, but faded tremendously in the second half, so it is conceivable that hitters made adjustments to his stuff or that he tired down the stretch. I doubt that trade will be a win for Daniels in the long run, but getting Eaton isn’t such a bad proposition in the short run. Baseball Prospectus recently ran a good (and free) article on the changing Rangers staff that made me think Millwood/Eaton/Padilla would be worth at least three or four wins over last year’s Rogers/Young/Shitstorm trio, not to mention how much better they will be if Rogers hits the wall that has stopped so many 40+ pitchers before him.

Offensively, Daniels’ biggest move was to make good on the persistent Soriano rumors and get quite a booty in return, plugging Wilkerson into CF and the leadoff spot while handing the 2B job over to Ian Kinsler. Wilkerson is at least a five win player, with an upside well above seven, and he should easily outplay Gary Matthews by two or three wins, as Matthews was worth four last year while playing far above his established level of performance. Meanwhile, Soriano’s excuse for not wanting to play in the National League is that it will take him extra time to learn where to position himself defensively against NL batters. He had five years to learn how to position himself in the AL, and he bottomed out in his final season, costing the Rangers 25 runs in the field against an average second baseman. He was so cement-fisted that he was only two runs better than replacement. In other words, Frank Thomas could have approximated Soriano’s value as a second baseman. Kinsler, however, is a solid defender and has hit his way through the minors (.274/.348/.464 at AAA Oklahoma last year). He probably won’t outplay Soriano in 2006, but their value to their respective teams will be much closer than any sportscaster will let on. Without considering money or Sledge’s value as a fourth OF, the trade nets Texas a win or two by a conservative estimate. Factor in Soriano’s forthcoming payday and it looks like a steal.

Akinori Otsuka, who was part of the Eaton trade, will join a live-armed bullpen that has had success the last couple of years and is not an area of great concern. The offense still features Mark Texeira and Michael Young smacking lots of extra base hits in newly named Ameriquest Field, so the overhauled pitching staff, the small offensive gains and the little bit of ground between their true record and their run differential provides lots of hope for better things in 2006.

The next installment will look at the Los Angeles Dodgers and the wonderful situation in which Ned Colletti finds himself.