Breakout Stakeout

After looking at the Minnesota roster over the last week, it became clear that some of their most promising talents could be kept out of games by worse incumbents. But the PECOTAs extend beyond Minnesota players, and today I’m looking at some of the biggest breakout candidates for the upcoming season.

Breakout Candidates:

Adam Dunn- Former Twins’ guru Wayne Krivsky was named the new Reds’ GM today, and one of his greatest assets will be burly OF/1B Adam Dunn. While Dunn is not without his flaws- a huge strikeout rate, less than optimal speed and a middling batting average- he remains one of the darlings of the PECOTA system. Last year he projected to a 42.4 VORP with a 55.8% Breakout Rate and an astounding 86.5% Improvement Rate coming off of an already stellar 2004. His actual VORP of 54.5 reflects more playing time than PECOTA expected rather than different performance, but the system sees Dunn as a viable candidate to make more strides this year with a 24% Breakout Rate and a 64% Improvement Rate (that those stats stand out demonstrates how remarkable his 2005 projection was). There is an upside and a downside here, the downside is that Dunn’s incredible performance is wasted on a team with no shot at the playoffs due to a terrible pitching staff and offensive injury concerns. The upside is that Dunn, with 158 HR under his belt, is still only 26 and could contribute to several contenders if the Reds are able to right the ship under the new regime.

Hank Blalock- Analysts and Twins fans spent the offseason panning Blalock for his various faults, but perhaps this is one of those instances where his strengths outweigh his relative weaknesses. On the whole, he has a 32% BR and a strong 66% IR. Let’s break it down:
Fault 1: Blalock struggles away from Arlington with a .276 OBP and a .335 SLG on the road.
Solution: PECOTA thinks the home-road effects from which he suffered last year were overstated or an aberration. This year, he projects to an .860 EqOPS (adjusted for the home park effects).
Fault 2: Blalock cannot hit left-handed pitching, showing an even worse .583/.817 platoon split last season.
Solution: Blalock is only 25 years old, and young lefty hitters often struggle with lefty pitchers early in their careers. Eric Chavez is a pretty fair comparison- a lefty third-sacker facing the same pitching in the same division with early-career trouble with southpaws (actually his no. 2 comp). He brought his lefty OPS from .623 in 2002 to .749 last year (.893 in 2004). Lefties don’t have innate trouble against lefties; they can learn to hit, which is apparently part of Blalock’s projected future.
Fault 3: Blalock was playing in the majors by the time he was 21 and reached his peak already, leaving no room for improvement.
Solution: PECOTA seems to think there is room for improvement, and Faults 1-2 attest to that claim. As mentioned earlier, he’s projected with huge upset and almost no chance of regression (6% Collapse, 0% Attrition).

Jose Reyes- Breakouts come in all different forms. Dunn’s breakout would be something of a continuation of an exponentially upward-sloping career arc. Blalock’s would be more of a jump after a persistent stagnation. If Reyes’ broke out, it would adhere more closely to the traditional notion, a player with a high ceiling suddenly realizing that potential. The Mets have mishandled Reyes to much fanfare, rushing him to the Majors for PR purposes and refusing to cut their losses and send him to AAA for work on his plate discipline.

That said, fantasy owners won’t be surprised to remember that he ranks among the top 10 players in Yahoo’s fantasy baseball player rater. A .273 BA is acceptable, and 99 runs and 60 SBs are great qualities. Unlike with Blalcok, many of his faults have overwhelmed his strengths. If you are reading this blog, it is likely that you appreciate the value of a high OBP, especially in front of boppers like Carlos Beltran and David Wright, and Reyes only provided a .300 OBP last season. PECOTA thinks he has a chance to do a lot of that missed development all at once with a 32% BR and 60% IR. Even his weighted mean projection pegs him for a strong bump in OBP, up to .317 to go with an .011 point spike in his SLG (to .397). Neither stat is brilliant, but if Willie Randolph insists on batting Reyes at the top of the order, every little bit of improvement will help, especially with Carlos Delgado adding even more potency to the middle of the lineup. If the Mets are going to get past the Braves and Phillies to win the division, that offensive improvement needs to come through as runs scored, which requires base-runners, so this sunny projection is good news for Mets fans.