Check Swings
Before the Ink Dries

It is hard to like a deal that commits more than $40 million to a player who will play in about 4-5% of all of his team’s innings, and that’s exactly what the Mets and Blue Jays have gotten themselves into. Even the people who worship the proven closer have been pretty accurate in their descriptions of Ryan’s 5-year, $47 million coup with Toronto, saying they had to overpay in years and cash to make other free agents perceive the Rogers Centre as a desirable destination. Does anyone remember Detroit doing the same thing after 2003, then failing to have a winning record anyway? Or the Orioles, also needing about 15-20 more wins to compete for the division, signing Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez, and failing to compete for the next two years? The Jays have a long way to go, and it is going to take a lot more than a marginal upgrade at closer (Batista blew some saves, but he wasn’t 5 wins worse than Ryan) to catch up to Boston and New York, both of whom will certainly try to be upwardly mobile targets as well.

That said, Ryan should be a good pitcher in Toronto. He came into his own at age 27, which is about right for a power pitcher. He blows hitters away, increasing his STUFF rating, which gives a standardized score of HR/9, BB/9 and K/9, for the last three years, topping out at 42 (league average is set at 10). Moreover, the Jays have their fingers in all sorts of discussions, from Brian Giles to play RF, to a very serious negotiation process with A.J. Burnett, either of whom would get them on the fringe, but still not squarely in the AL East race. The truly disturbing part about the deal is how the Canadian exchange rate is setting the market for other players. Part of the reason Ryan’s deal look so inflated, just like Carlos Delgado’s big Toronto contract did, is that Canadian money is worth less than American money, and there is a much higher tax rate. Since most players don’t go northward seeking free healthcare or prescription drug coverage, the Jays (and Raptors in basketball) have to overcompensate. That’s all fine and good, but it sets the market for other free agents and for arbitration cases who don’t bother calculating the exchange rate. In other words, an off-season that looked costly may have just legitimated the owners’ concern regarding their own fiscal irresponsibility

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It wasn’t long before the next show fell, either, with Omar Minaya scurrying to spend more money for more years than anyone else can manage. Since I started watching baseball, three pitchers stick out for looking like their arms were perpetually about to rip off at the shoulder like in SNL’s old “All-Steroid Olympics” sketch. Maybe it was the absolutely filthy stuff of Doc Gooden, Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner, or their smaller-than-average frames, but I just never trusted any of these guys to stay healthy for more than about a week at a time. Felix Hernandez could easily jump into that class, albeit with a much larger frame. I don’t think the concern is one about mechanics so much as my own perception of overexertion, colored by injury histories for each player. Since Gooden is out of baseball (busy hanging out with Michael Irvin?), the Mets had to settle for committing more than $100 million to the other two in long term deals.

After a two year stop in Philadelphia, where he was fragile but dominant, Wagner packs his bags for Queens. He has settled into a groove since his first major surgery where he strikes out about 1.2 batters per IP, limits his walks, but can’t pitch more than 80 innings. The Mets bullpen was so bad last year that paying for four years of an injury-prone 34 year old is not that disheartening, but they need to troll for cheap relievers to fill in the middle innings; the Bobby Jenks and Cliff Polites of the world. Even with the additions of Delgado and Wagner, the Mets can expect regression from Pedro, Glavine and Cliff Floyd, who were all very important. They will be very good, but they cannot keep tying themselves to a piano by batting Reyes leadoff, leaving Aaron Heilman for dead in the bullpen and starting Kaz Ishii and Victor Zambrano. A year ago, everyone was excited about Willie Randolph. Now, he may be standing between his players and a division title.

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To me, the most intriguing singing so far has been the A’s picking up Esteban Loaiza for three years at $21 million. I don’t see where the market inefficiency is in this year’s market for late-blooming products of RFK who fill the need as an 8th starter. Indeed, Oakland already has Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Kirk Saarloos, Joe Kennedy and Dan Meyer as potential starters for next year before bringing in Loaiza, who had a 4.71 ERA away from RFK last year based on higher BB and lower K totals. So how do they pare that down to five by opening day? Kennedy and Saarloos are easily dismissed to the bullpen, as they were for much of last season. Meyer could be sent back to AAA for one more year of seasoning after he started 2005 injured and put up disappointing stats (5.36 ERA in 83 IP). Still, it is hard to look at the deal without thinking that Billy Beane is trying to maneuver himself in to a blockbuster deal where he trades Zito for the scary monster his lineup needs. He has even backed off of his no-trade stance, now saying that, "I wouldn't necessarily read into it that it's a precursor to anything coming down the pike," instead of roundly dismissing the rumors as he has in the past. Additionally, the concern around trading Zito a year ago was that his value was too low coming off of a sub-par season. Now, with a better year under his belt, he looks even more attractive; maybe even better than Mulder did on last year’s market, adjusting for the supply of starting pitchers and their established value. In any case, I would be surprised if Oakland’s last big move of the off-season was the Loaiza signing.

Blown Away

If there’s not a lot of baseball news floating around these days, the headlines that have bubbled up have been big enough to make it count. The Thome and Delgado deals might have been more reasonable a couple of years ago when they were drawing 100+ walks and hitting 40+ HRs every year, but that doesn’t mean the White Sox and Mets aren’t better for making those trades. Today I’ll break down what the trades mean for each involved party. (By the way, the title of the column is a joke. I just wanted to see if anyone else is annoyed at how often teams say they're not willing to trade a player unless they get an offer that blows them away. And it is always the same rhetorical device. Wouldn't a great offer do the trick? Does it really have to blow you away?)

Chicago White Sox receive Jim Thome and $22 million: Theo Epstein’s World Championship goes back to statistically motivated decisions, at least perceptually, and I think Kenny Williams’ Championship ought to be thought of as a bunch of high risk decisions coming up roses at the same time. Nobody knew if Jermaine Dye could come back, and he did. Nobody knew if Bobby Jenks could keep his head and elbow on straight, and he did. Nobody knew of trading Carlos Lee’s offense for Scott Podsednik’s defense would help, and it did (well, that’s debatable). Thome is another huge risk, as most GMs already said they would refuse to deal for him at all before they could see if he could even swing a bat. Top that off with a chronically bad back, and Thome’s ’06-’08 could look an awful lot like Frank Thomas in ’05. The Phillies are footing half of the bill for Thome, which would soften the blow if this turns out like it usually does for lumbering sluggers with injury trouble, and the Sox didn’t give up much. Brian Anderson won’t play LF like Podsednik did last year, but Rowand was overrated and older than people think, so they won’t give up much in terms of OF production. This deal boils down to how much production they will get from an old DH for $7 mil a year. I don’t dislike it though, as it shows that Williams isn’t afraid of shaking up the team after it won a title, and it probably signifies the end of the Big Hurt era in the Windy City (if not the Konerko era as well).

Philadelphia receives Aaron Rowand: When Pat Gillick was introduced as the new GM of the Phillies, he said his first order of business would be to deal with the logjam that Ryan Howard created at first base he Pipp’d Thome to the tune of a Rookie of the Year plaque. That he was able to find a taker who would cover at least some of the cost this early allows them to move forward and try to improve the rest of the team without the dark cloud of uncertainty raining foreboding droplets of indecision on their heads. Yes, it’s a shame that they are content to play with Jason Michaels and Rowand in center rather than try Shane Victorino over an extended period of time (.310/.377/.534 at AAA). And it’s hard to be happy about the way the Thome marriage ended, but it could have been a lot worse. The way I see it, they’ll pay Howard something like $5 million combined over the next 3 years, which comes to about $27 million when Thome’s sunk cost is factored in. A three year deal at $9 million per for a slugging first baseman who is entering his prime? That’s not so bad. Plus, maybe they can flip Rowand to one of those “contenders” in Boston, New York or Chicago (North Side) who need a CF.

New York Mets receive Carlos Delgado: Due to his injury history, we talk a lot about Thome’s potential to get hurt again, but we don’t focus on Delgado’s health, and he’s getting to the age where Thome’s started to be a problem. Still, Omar Minaya wanted to get Delgado last year, and missed out. Now, he had a season’s worth of evidence that he really needed him to anchor the lineup and keep a bat out of the hands of the human AB massacre (Dougie). All in all, the Mets got a great hitter who plays above average defense without giving up their top prospect (Lastings Milledge). Plus, Delgado’s top comp is Fred McGriff, who aged pretty well. The money part isn’t so hard to swallow since it is, after all, New York, and Delgado might provide a big boost in revenue since he’s the type of 8+ win player who gets the Mets into serious post-season contention.

Florida receives Yusmeiro Petit, Mike Jacobs and a mystery pitcher: Jacobs hit 11 HRs in 100 Abs with the Mets, which approaches his previous high at any level (17 in 407 ABs at AA in 2003). He will play mostly first base, but he might have just enough of a glove to catch every couple of weeks, but he won’t be a superstar. Petit makes the Marlins extremely deep in the arms department, joining Justin Vargas, Scott Olsen and the recently acquired Anibal Sanchez. But even if all of those guys develop to fill in behind Willis, will they really perform better than the Fish’s rotation this year? Probably not, and there’s almost no chance that what they have left in the field (regulars and prospects) will amount to the talent they had this year by the time that crew is ready to contend. I like that they were willing to make a run in ’05, but I think it’s a shame that teams keep thinking that they have to go to such drastic measures to get a new stadium. They should just say that their current stadium is a national security risk, so they need a new one to fight terrorism. That would DEFINITELY work.

A Horse of a Different Color

Far be it from a team as primed for contention as the Boston Red Sox to let a little matter such as not having a General Manager get in the way of pulling off the biggest blockbuster trade of the season. With the Rangers on the verge of bringing one of the best young starters in baseball to the American League, the Red Sox took a page out of the Yankees’ book and came in under the radar to make him all theirs. More than watching the trade itself play out, I’m excited to hear Larry Lucchino echo Steinbrenner’s “I can understand that the Rangers must be upset that they didn’t close the deal” comment, with Tom Hicks calling Boston the Evil Empire. But that’s how it’s going these days, isn’t it? The Yankees are telling Johnny Damon they’re not interested in a long-long-long term deal and refusing a third year on Flash Gordon. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are in on every free agent and raiding their farm system for immediate gratification. In baseball, though, restraint is not always the better part of valor, and the Sox see an opportunity to seize the year (2006) with lots of incomplete AL contenders and a weak free agent market.

Before I leave the subject of the farm system, the prospects they sent to Ft. Lauderdale’s retirement community are worth mention. Obviously the trade was motivated by a win-now mentality, devaluing the future value of today’s prospects, but Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez are two of the most prized prospects in the system. When Theo Epstein took over, he refocused the team’s draft strategy to load up on prospects, accumulating pitchers like Sanchez, Jon Papelbon, John Lester, Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen to go with Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia up the middle. Ramirez was supposed to be the guy at SS, but he was far from ready when the need came about after Nomar/Cabrera’s contract expired after 2004, so they signed Edgar Renteria who will stand in the way of Ramirez for several years. Moreover, Ramirez looked less than brilliant at AA Portland this year, batting .271/.335/.385 and going HITLESS in, well, two at bats with the big club. He’s still only 22 with lots of room for improvement, but Florida’s mantra of looking to the future better be true of they want Ramirez to be a key contributor. Sanchez is in the same boat, dominating at high-A Wilmington before becoming noticeably more hittable at Portland, still putting up solid peripherals: more than a strikeout per inning, 16 BBs and 5 HR in 57 IP. Still, the guy who draws comparisons to Pedro Martinez (mainly for his 6’, 175 lb stature) is a work in progress. The guy the Sox kept, Jon Lester is about a year ahead of Sanchez in progressing, absolutely dominating AA, albeit with a less than optimal BB rate.

The trade isn’t about the prospects, though; it’s about Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. The Sox willingness to pay $18 mil for Lowell over the next two years got them Beckett, which doesn’t sound so bad if you consider that Beckett won’t make nearly that much money ($2.4 mil), so they’re really getting both for about $23 mil over the next two years. Since Beckett’s market value is easily better than $10 mil for each of two years, taking a gamble on an old third baseman with a good glove could be worse. Plus, the Sox could use an insurance policy if Kevin Youkilis falters.

The addition of Beckett gives them an extremely deep rotation that will probably look quite a bit different by opening day. As it currently stands, their starting rotation could look like this (’05 VORP in parentheses):

Curt Schilling (1.3)
Josh Beckett (36.2)
Matt Clement (21.6)
Bronson Arroyo (16.9)
Tim Wakefield (32.9)
David Wells (24.1)

I say that the rotation will look different for a few reasons. First, David Wells wants out, and the team is trying to trade him to San Diego, leaving them with five real starters. With Wakefield and Schilling both at least 39 years old, and Schilling’s health still a very open question, they will probably want additional assurance, possibly in the form of a mid-level free agent starter. Don’t expect a return engagement with Wade Miller, though, as he sorely disappointed Red Sox Nation last season, and his health is hardly a sure thing either.

On Sunday, I endorsed the possible Blalock iteration of this deal, saying that Blalock is overrated and its worth cashing in good prospects for good young players, as Beckett has already achieved what Danks/Diamond/Lester/Sanchez all aspire to become. Similarly, Hank Blalock’s production would be a pretty good-case scenario for Hanley Ramirez’s development. I think this trade is even better for the Beckett receivers, but it also seems a bit foreboding, as the new Red Sox regime needs to show the same commitment to player development that Epstein did to infuse their veteran roster with cheap talent. Otherwise, they’ll be stuck in the recent Yankee dilemma of having to constantly spend more and more money on role players like Tony Clark and Kenny Lofton whose salaries eventually hamstrung them out of the Beltran sweepstakes.

Slow News Day

If you’re like me, you spent your sports capital this weekend watching Michigan-Ohio St. or the Iron Bowl and lamenting the dearth of baseball stories coming across the wire. At one point, I got excited about the Red Sox interviewing Dan Wilder from the White Sox front office to potentially fill their GM spot, but taken in the average baseball week, that barely amounts to a story. So, with apologies, I present a two part column dedicated to Mike Piazza and the Blalock-for-Beckett/Lowell trade rumor.

First, the Twins are apparently interested in bringing in Mike Piazza to DH and catch a few games, contributing mainly as an offensive stopgap. Personnel-wise, the move makes lots of sense, as they need someone to spot Joe Mauer every few days to keep the young stud’s legs fresh and nimble. Piazza won’t give them great defense in those starts, but he has remained above replacement level defensively, and can do a lot more on offense than Mike Redmond. Redmond hit .311 last year and accumulated 8.8 runs of VORP, but it’s all going to go downhill for a slow catcher who doesn’t walk and has an isolated power of .081. Ryan gave Redmond $2.2 mil for two years, handcuffing him for that position in 2006. Could Ryan have signed Redmond for one year at $1.3 mil? Probably, and that extra $900,000 would not be a sunk cost for 2006, and they probably could have renewed the contract for this year at the same price, costing 500,000 extra for a player who would actually play compared to $900,000 for one who would not. The lesson: don’t sign crappy players to multi-year deals.

But back to Piazza. It’s no surprise that the rumor comes up just after the report that Jason Kubel’s knee is behind schedule in rehabilitation from a brutal injury similar to the one that turned the Vikings’ season around. I was under the impression that the Twins expected Kubel to come back and DH next season while he knee fully healed, grooming him for part-time RF duty by year’s end and full-time duty by 2007. Instead, they have to find another short-term DH solution, creating perfect conditions for a guy who can give them some pop behind the plate every now and again. While Piazza’s stats have fallen pretty dramatically since 2001, it’s hard to say how much of that decline could be offset by spending most of the time DH’ing. The Strib pointed out that he has hit .313 with power as a DH in interleague games, which is encouraging, but too isolated to prove much. Even if he duplicates last year’s numbers, he’s Matt Lecroy without the platoon splits (and probably not that much more salary). The upside is probably in the neighborhood of .275/.360/.475, which would do an on-base starved team like the Twins a world of good. This scenario is the type of shit-or-get-off-the-pot decision that Ryan has avoided for several years, instead trusting his own guys to get near 90 wins. But Chicago and Cleveland have dedicated themselves to actually being good, so Ryan needs to start taking some calculated risks or be relegated to third place for several years, wasting Mauer and Santana in the process. Sometimes it works (Stewart), sometimes it doesn’t (Boone), but when they have ground to make up, it’s better to try.

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Much further South, but staying in the Central Time Zone, the Texas Rangers are rumored to be close to a deal that would bring them Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock and a top pitching prospect. Texas seems like they’ve deserted their trade partners at the altar numerous times over the last few years, constantly dangling Soriano or prospects for pitchers. That’s not to say John Hart was gun shy in his GM tenure, as he made the blockbuster A-Rod trade, but new GM Jon Daniels could do worse than to dump all of his resources on a couple of real front-line starters.

Think of the Rangers’ situation this way: Kenny Rogers wildly over-performed last year, and it didn’t get them close to the playoffs. The offense was great at home and average on the road. To get back to where they were, they need the offense to stay the same, and they need the rest of their pitchers to improve to make up for the loss of their best starter. Alternatively, if they get rid of some of the offensive fluff that gets good numbers secondary numbers from the skills of their truly elite core (Texeira, Young); they can make gains on the mound that more than make up for the marginal loss in runs. Blalock will still be only 25 next year, but he took a big step back last year in terms of plate discipline and power, and if the Rangers can sell the memory of a 22 year old who hit .300/350/.522 in 2003, they will receive an overly generous return.

Beckett, on the other hand, will be a pitcher on the sigh-of-relief end of the injury nexus (age 26) who just posted career highs in Wins, IP and Ks. He brings with him the ability to keep the ball in the park (14 HR in 178 IP- invaluable in Arlington) and a reasonable likelihood of becoming a real ace over the next few years. Plus, he has the intangible benefit of being a native Texan, making him extremely marketable in the Metroplex. The two pitching prospects who are causing Texas to hold up the trade are John Danks and Thomas Diamond. Both started strong for a couple of months in high-A ball before going to AA and posting unimpressive K numbers, low G/F ratios and ERAs in the 5.00s. Since TNSTAPP (Tins-Tap: There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect), this seems like the perfect time for the bird in hand axiom. Beckett is still young, but at very least we know that he can succeed in the bigs, while Danks and Diamond might be highly projectable, but what are the chances that either will be better than Beckett? I would unload the overvalued Hank Blalock and Diamond (the right-handed bundle of uncertainty as opposed to the left-handed one) for the prized Beckett and Mike Lowell’s unfortunate salary, then cross my fingers hoping that Arlington’s park effects help Lowell and don’t touch Beckett. But I wouldn’t stop there; I would then shop Alfonso Soriano for a true mid-rotation innings eater, shift Mike Young back to second and plug Ian Kinsler in at SS (.274/.348/.464 at AAA, with a much better glove than Young). Then the IF would include Lowell, Kinsler, Young and Texeira, while the OF would have some permutation of Nix, Matthews, Dellucci and Mench. Promising enough, especially considering that they have built a young rotation that’s quickly approaching decency.

Accepting the Mean

With 30 Major League Baseball teams playing 162 games a year, there is a total of 2430 games played each season. That means there are 1215 wins and 1215 losses; the league average team goes 81-81 and scores as many runs as it allows. Simple enough, but if you listen to the optimism surrounding teams making changes in November, you’d think that everyone was destined to win at least 90 games. In reality, not every new manager will create a winning environment for the team. Not every general manager is a transaction wizard who will simultaneously rejuvenate a depleted farm system and bolster the roster of the big club. Not every twilight-of-his-career pitcher will find a Clemensian resurgence.

Take Tampa Bay as an example. After the unceremonious exit of Lou Piniella and the long-overdue dismissal of GM Chuck Lamar, the new ownership was ready to make its mark on the front office. Promoting Andrew Friedman and bringing in Gerry Hunsicker is supposed to give them a two-headed GM with a balance of scouty grit and staty high-mindedness. Joe Maddon got the enthusiastic nod as Sweet Lou’s successor on the bench. Maddon has spent his baseball career in the Angels organization, gaining the respect of Tim McCarver types by paying his dues and cutting his teeth in three interim managerial stints with the team. He seems like a great guy; he’s dedicated to player development and he’s known for using complex statistics to influence his decisions. It all sounds fantastic, and I have no problem with the hire.

The GM duo, too, seems like a pretty smart move. Friedman is supposed to be St. Pete’s Theo Epstein, a young baseball outsider with the Jewish-sounding name to match. Hunsicker knows what he’s doing, most recently laying the groundwork for the Houston team Tim Purpura brought to the World Series. Friedman can more or less lead the way while taking hints from the wily veteran in order to maximize output from an already strong farm system.

With help on the way from Delmon Young, B.J. Upton and others, the future looks bright in Tampa. So bright, in fact, that everyone seemed to be ready to burst at the press conference announcing Maddon’s hiring. "I like the way this organization is coming together," Maddon said, “the nucleus we have is great.” He also compared the organization to the Angels or the Twins, ready to make a run at the division for several years in a row.

But let’s step back for a minute. The Devil Rays have never come close to having a winning record. They have had highly touted prospects for years and have not turned them into major league winners (although admittedly not on the level of Upton or Young). They play in a warehouse just south of a glorified retirement community, not the best place to recruit free agents. Their best prospect has denounced the franchise, and Lamar held onto their best trading assets well past their peak value (Huff and Baez). They even had one of the best managers of his generation (Piniella), and drove him away because he thought these conditions made it impossible to win. What makes Maddon better than Piniella? Odds are: nothing. But for them to have a winning record, they will have to succeed within the division against teams from much bigger markets. Even if they fully develop all of their prospects, it will be difficult for them to keep up with Boston, New York, Baltimore and Toronto, all of whom have managers, coaches, or general managers who were supposed to be saviors for the franchise- Riccardi in Toronto was lauded as the genius behind Billy Beane; Leo Mazzone just came to Baltimore to great fanfare; Boston’s next GM will certainly see similar celebrations, even if it is Jim Bowden.

I don’t mean to pick on Tampa Bay. Maybe the will be successful, but the bottom line is, somebody has to lose. One-hundred win success stories necessitate massive failures on the other end. Elmer Dessens and Mark Grudzielanek will not make Kansas City competitive, and it gets a little tiresome hearing every new acquisition touted as the franchise’s next big thing. PR aside, I’ll go ahead and call restraint the better part of valor.

MVP Notes
Much Ado About Not Much

-I have already spent a lot of time documenting my views on the AL MVP race here, so I’ll spare you rehashing those arguments. I will say, though, that I was relieved and happy when I saw that A-Rod had beaten out Ortiz. If nothing else, that reaction speaks volumes about how much my positive attitude towards Boston has reversed in the last year since they won the World Series. Maybe it was the excessive spending, maybe it was the media frenzy, maybe it was Theo Epstein’s kiss of death on the franchise, but something changed radically to make me cheer for one of the most loathsome, selfish, big-money mercenaries in the game over a genuinely likable guy with ties to Minnesota. I also considered the possibility that I want the award to maintain its legitimacy so that when my team’s players win, it is a genuine reflection of an achievement. In other words, if Aaron Sele had won the Cy Young every year from 1998-2003, Johan’s 2004 win would mean a lot less. But I think my motivation runs even deeper; I think I just wanted to see them get it right for the sake of getting it right. Amen.

-The vote was far from unanimous, though, as Jason Stark pointed out in his column today. He says that, “Our philosophy about MVPs is that it's about offense first and intangibles second. Defense is one of those intangibles, obviously. But it isn't bigger than leadership.” He also makes two arguments in Papi’s favor: 1. that he was better in “close and late” type situations, and 2. that A-Rod padded his stats in blow-out wins.

I’ll answer these claims in order. First, defense is TANGIBLE. Just because the metrics are imperfect and largely proprietary doesn’t prevent them from giving us an approximation of how much better A-Rod really was. As I mentioned in my earlier column, A-Rod’s glove was worth about 11 runs over what Ortiz did when his teammates were in the field (and that’s not counting the fact that Derek Jeter morphed from a monumental failure at SS to a pretty decent one in A-Rod’s presence). Papi’s leadership? It was probably worth a few runs, but it could also have plausibly cost his team runs, if, say, his cavalier and easy-going attitude prevented a high strung teammate from focusing. I’m not saying that it actually happened, but leadership DEFINITELY falls under what Stark calls “intangibles.”

Second, the close and late statistic is an arbitrary measure. VORP tells us that A-Rod was worth about 17 more runs on offense than Ortiz, so why should it matter when he produces those runs? If he hits a three-run homerun in the first and another in the fifth, do we fault him for striking out in the ninth when the team is up 6-5? Isn’t he still responsible for hitting those homeruns? And doesn’t the inverse of that statistic indicate that Ortiz is unusually bad early in games, preventing his team from getting into the bullpen, wearing out pitchers and establishing a lead for Boston’s pitcher? Perhaps those late-game heroics are sexier, but that doesn’t make them that much more valuable.

Finally, he sites a Red Sox blog that shows A-Rod’s production coming disproportionately in Yankee blowout wins. I can understand if some of my fellow bloggers make the logical error of inverting cause and effect, but Mr. Stark is paid money for his opinion, widely read and generally respected. Did it never occur to him that A-Rod’s production was causing the games to be blowouts? Or perhaps that they game was a blowout because the other team was starting Seth McClung or Jose Lima? Basically, he’s saying that A-Rod should do just enough to keep games close, and then start trying. I’m getting too worked up; if I had handlers, they would be force-feeding me some serotonin reuptake inhibitors right about now.

-Although I think Derrek Lee was a better choice in the NL, I can’t criticize the voters for taking option 1a in Albert Pujols, especially since it kept Andruw Jones from becoming a memorably miserable pick. My one quibble is pretty clear in ESPN.com’s report on the voting: “Had things transpired a little differently on the North Side of Chicago, in fact, Jones wouldn't even have been the second-best candidate -- because Derrek Lee actually had a better statistical year than either Jones or Pujols. But there's a reason they call this the Most Valuable Player award.” Strictly speaking, valuable means “worth a good price,” or “of great use or service,” according to Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary, so you can stop trying to be cute, ESPN staff writer. I have no problem with Pujols beating out Lee, as they were almost mirror images statistically, only distinguishable through stats of which most voters have never heard. But I do have a problem with Lee getting only one first-place vote and losing out to Andruw Jones by a wide margin. Jones hit a lot of homeruns, but didn’t do so well getting on base otherwise, and he put more space between his defensive ability and his stellar defensive reputation, placing him squarely in defensive decline. If you were to use metrics that are especially complimentary to Jones’ skill set, you might be able to sneak him in the top four or five, but certainly not number two. A win is a win, and Lee was worth more than Jones no matter how many Chicago's other players were worth. I know that nobody will care who the runner-up was five years from now, but it shows that lots of well-respected baseball people have little idea what they are talking about.

-Finally, Pujols’ first MVP award after four top four finishes makes him the first Cardinal since Willie McGee (1985) to win the award- a year in which the speedster slugged .503, .107 points above his career average. Pujols also joins the elite ranks of one-time MVPs, such as: Ken Caminiti, Willie Hernandez, Jackie Jensen, Dolph Camilli and Babe Ruth. One of these players doesn’t seem to belong on the list, and I’m not making an argument to discount Caminiti due to steroid use. Ruth led the league in OPS 13 times in 14 years, and failed to win the MVP in 12 of them. In 1918 he led the league in HRs while finishing in the top 10 in CGs and ERA as a pitcher. He set the single-season homerun record without winning the MVP… THREE TIMES! Besides his one win in 1923, he was never in the top four in MVP balloting, and only in the top 10 twice (’31, ’32). To pick one year as an example, he hit .356/.486/.772 in 1927, with 60 HR and 164 RBI. He even ran well, stealing 7 bases and legging out 8 triples. Lou Gehrig had a legitimately great MVP season, but Ruth didn’t appear on a single ballot. According to this great piece, if voters had their heads on straight, and if the award was given through Ruth’s whole career (rather than after 1921, his age 26 season) he would have won at least 6 MVPs, possibly 9-10. Both stats seem more reasonable for the best player of all time.

In response to the comment on the Nathan post...

I agree, but I think the criteria for evaluating potential closers should be based on performance rather than blind guesses about moxy or checking how low he wears his cap. The year before each was given the closer role, Hawkins and Stevens combined for a foreboding 6.66 ERA, whereas Guardado and Nathan combined for a 3.39 ERA (and that was one of Guardado's down years). It's no surprise that the latter pair continued to succeed where the bad pitchers continued to fail. Ron Davis was actually a league average pitcher for the Twins, much as he was before he became a closer. A good reliever is a good reliever in the 7th, 8th, 9th, or even the 1st for that matter. Sure, relievers' stats fluctuate from one year to the next due to the small number of innings they pitch, but a guy like Rincon has proven over the last couple of years that he can miss bats and competently hold onto 3-run leads. If the alternative was to trot out a new version of Dave Stevens, I would say that Nathan is untouchable, but like I said before: the Twins' bullpen depth puts them in a strong position.

Of course you're completely right about needing to get a good return on the trade, but we'll have ample opportunities to see if the market is there (Wagner, Ryan, Hoffman).

Blasphemy!

It’s a lot of fun for a sports fan to play general manager. In a way, I think that concept is largely responsible for the proliferation of sports blogs, as most people don’t write about what it would be like to play for a team or how good the play by play is on a daily basis. Fortunately, bloggers are not confined to the realities of player movements: friendships, chemistry, contracts, inter-organizational relationships and so on. Therefore, we can propose ridiculous trades and insist that they are good ideas. That’s precisely the topic of today’s column: proposing and defending a ridiculous Twins’ trade. I might get around to a full-fledged off-season blueprint in a couple of weeks, but for now, my only proposal is that the Twins sell high on one of their few peak performers, Joe Nathan.

First, the case from the Twins’ perspective. With a ridiculously deep bullpen, the Twins are dealing from a position of strength in a time when nearly every contending team is short on pitching, particularly in the pen. Take this year’s trade deadline, for example. The notoriously flakey J.C. Romero had cobbled together a strong year to follow up on a season in which he was demoted to AAA, and almost fetched them a solid bat or two from Boston, even though he is wholly expendable for the Twins. I still think Ryan should look to trade Romero, as the bullpen would be strong even if they subtracted two of its more proven members. Without Romero or Nathan, the Twins are left with Rincon to close, Crain to set up, Liriano as a situational lefty (Rincon and Crain are also exceptional against lefties, although not left-handed themselves, and Liriano seems primed for a bullpen grooming role similar to the one Santana undertook. If they aren’t ready to hand him a rotation spot, he might as well be useful to the team now that his service clock is ticking towards arbitration), Guerrier, and a pick ‘em from the bunch of Bowyer, Balfour, Bonser, Gassner and Durbin. Assuming the front office wants to continue using the dominant bullpen model, all of these pitchers have live arms and plenty of value to the team.

Nathan finished 12th in all of baseball last year in Reliever Win Expectancy Added (WXRL), with Crain in 16th and Rincon in 23rd. But Crain was actually better than Nathan, falling behind due to his use in lower leverage situations, and Rincon was just behind. Given that Crain and Rincon are young enough to still see improvement, and that Nathan is on the wrong side of 30 and a bit more expensive, it seems natural that he would be the one to deal. I deem Rincon the closer over Crain due to the difference in K-rates (9.82 to 2.82) and the usual proclivity for closers with canon arms. As noted earlier, Crain was also ridiculously hit-lucky this season, seeing only a .222 batting average on balls in play, the lowest among pitchers with as many IP (abnormally low BABIP usually predicts regression in overall performance). If you’re curious, Nathan had a .270 BABIP, a little low, but not alarming.

There’s also the argument to be made about the market for relief pitching, especially relief pitching with the shiny closer label. Historically, the Twins have sent a completely spent Rick Aguilera to the Cubs for Kyle Lohse and Hector Carrasco to the Red Sox for Lew Ford. More recently, the Braves gave up big-time prospect Jose Capellan for Danny Kolb, who doesn’t even come close to Nathan’s qualifications. In the 2003 season, the Marlins sacrificed a former number one overall pick in Adrian Gonzalez and two other solid prospects for half a season of Ugi Urbina as an 8th inning guy. In other words, the Twins could score big by dealing a top-notch closer.

There is definitely a strong counterargument to be made about the deep free agent class of closers, including Billy Wagner, B.J. Ryan, Todd Jones, Trevor Hoffman, Bob Wickman, Kyle Farnsworth and Urbina (assuming he beats that murder rap. Yes, murder). But with that surplus of players comes an inflated market, disproportionately skewed towards big-market teams. Both New York teams, Boston, Philadelphia, San Diego, Baltimore, Cleveland and Atlanta are looking for late inning relievers, all with the (perceived) incentive of playing for the postseason. Once the first couple of dominos fall- probably Wagner and Ryan signing for $8 mil or more- Nathan’s accomplishments are going to look pretty amazing for only $2.5 mil. If the Twins are willing to take on a little salary in return, they could be in for a pretty impressive windfall.

Earlier I mentioned WXRL, or how many wins a reliever is worth over the course of a season. It’s probably not surprising to most that relievers do not contribute all that much in their workloads that are 1/3 the size of a starter’s, but would it surprise you to learn that Nathan added less wins last season than Doug Davis, Bruce Chen or Aaron Harang? Nathan was worth a total of 4.4 marginal wins over replacement level for the Twins; the closest full-time starter was Jeff Suppan at 4.3 marginal wins. And if you compare production to position players, it only looks worse. The 12th best reliever in all of baseball was worth slightly less than Randy Winn or Matt Holliday, two decidedly average outfielders who don’t even have full job security. Trading Nathan for a bat to replace Jacque Jones or the gaping holes in the IF would be trading up at least a couple of wins. Billy Beane has made a killing off of racking up save totals then trading the pitcher for more valuable assets. Doug Melvin did the same in Milwaukee, now Terry Ryan has the opportunity to make the same very astute move.

Check Swings

Early in the offseason, the talk has been more about who will be running teams than who will be playing for them, as Tampa recently settled on the young-old duo, Los Angeles and Boston continue searching, and Washington continues to play the role of waiting-for-someone-better. I was energized by the idea of Theo Epstein to Washington, but I’m not sure how likely that scenario could be. If he wanted to leave Boston just to lower his profile, it would make sense. Washington also offers a decent-sized market in a division without the Yankees (but with the Mets, who look to be on the rise). He would have to rebuild a depleted farm system, gutted by temporary GMs when it looked like the franchise could be contracted, but he has experience with going ground-up in the minors. At this point, I’m holding out hope.

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Meanwhile, the Red Sox are talking to… Jim Bowden??? Afterwards, they will have a sit-down with Baltimore’s Jim Beattie. For a team that has been so rewarded for progressive thinking, measured risk-taking and rewarding intelligence, I’m at a loss for why they would want to take the ultimate knee-jerk reaction to needing a new general manager. When rumors about Kevin Towers cropped up immediately after Theo’s resignation I figured him to be the natural replacement: a guy with connections to the team’s front office stepping into a higher profile job. But he decided to avoid the circus, too, leaving them with proven scrubs and unnamed candidates. If Bowden gets the job, his first transactions will be to trade Kevin Youkilis and John Papelbon to Cincinnati for Wily Mo Pena, then to sign every member of the 1996 AL All-Star team not currently under contract (remember, Carlos Baerga and Wil Cordero showed up in RFK more times last summer than can be attributed to an accident).

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On the home front, Terry Ryan played his cards characteristically close to the vest in an interview with the Strib. Probably won’t sign Paul Konerko: good. Probably won’t trade Torii Hunter: not so good, although he said he’d listen to deals for the overpriced and declining CF. Probably will trade for offense: I certainly hope so, if he wants to continue running the team. Probably will make small free agent signings to shore up the middle IF: oh, like he did with Juan Castro? Seriously though, if the Twins don’t sign Bill Mueller after the in-season trade talk and 35 different reports of mutual interest in the off-season, it will be the biggest tease since Bugs Bunny dressed up like a girl Bunny to flirt with Elmer Fudd. Presumably, he would play third and bat second, leaving a rickety old one-two punch of Shannon Stewart and Mueller. Mueller is a line-drive hitter who doesn’t rely on speed, so his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons should not be all that different if he stays healthy (big if).

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Another Minnesota rumor involves the Twins taking on Jim Thome to share 1B and DH duties with Morneau. If the rumor sounds preposterous, remember that it came from the desk of Sid Hartman. I don’t think Hartman’s even trying at this point; he just throws out gossip like he’s the second most popular cheerleader at his school who wants more attention. Nobody is going to trade for Thome until they see if he’s remotely able to hit in spring training, and the Twins aren’t very good candidates to swallow the $43.5 million remaining on his contract over the next three years. I’d say that you shouldn’t get too excited about the Thome rumor, but I think that advice is unnecessary, because I don’t know anyone who would be excited about getting this version of Jim Thome.

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In the Baseball Prospectus 2005 book, the writers described Jacque Jones as the type of hitter who makes for cheap complementary talent for a while, but once his salary hits arbitration, it quickly starts to overwhelm his on-field value. Jones might be a good fit for a team that needs a lefty bad and a good corner-OF glove, but the Twins are not in a position for that sort of luxury, or to afford an escalating salary in the name of sentimentality for division titles gone by. Luckily, Joe Christensen makes it sound like they’re about to let him walk to St. Louis, Atlanta, or whomever else wants to pay a platoon hitter everyday money. There are things about Jacque that I will miss, like the way he wears his hat slightly askew. None of those things, though, has much of anything to do with winning games. I’ll always remember him for being the only player of his generation who wouldn’t surprise me by swinging at a pickoff throw to first.

Out of Left Field

Just a funny note today. Last night, the ESPN bottom line's item regarding the White Sox buyout of Frank Thomas called him "OF Frank Thomas." Obviously, Thomas has never played in the OF, not even for an inning, but he's so incredibly far from athletic that he's one of the all-time worst fielders even at first base. In his everday prime where he actually got a chance to play frequently in the field, he cost the Sox 75 runs against average in 6 seasons.

Year Fielding Runs Against Average Games Played
1992 -17 158
1993 -18 150
1994 -12 99
1995 -10 90
1996 -11 139
1997 -7 97

It's funny that his most comparable player is Jeff Bagwell, as it's hard to think of anyone who looks like Thomas when he plays. The results are nonetheless similar, as they both have had great plate patience and power over their careers, but Bagwell is agile like a cat, while Thomas is an absolute lug. Suffice to say that Fisher DeBerry would rather have Bagwell than Thomas, especially in the "OF."

Top 10 Free Agents- Cream of the Crop

The World Series is over, so its time to start stoking the stove for a long winter. Now we have to contrive hobbies for three and a half months before pitchers and catcher report. No worries, though, as the off-season can actually be more fun than some of the dog day dregs of the regular season as long as you know what look for. Once we get to the winter meetings, we can speculate about what every team will trade, sign or invite without respect to realistic limitations such as “money” and “resources.” Maybe if I grew up a Yankee fan expecting every player to sign with my team I would not be so infatuated with player movement. But I grew up with Butch Huskey and Bob Tewksbury revving my free agent engines, so the idea of a big money player is still a grand and foreign one to me. Thus, today I’ll discuss the biggest names and the highest ceilings of this year’s free agent market in terms of value over their likely contract.

1. A.J. Burnett- At 28, he’s the only big name free agent who might have his best years still ahead of him. With only 12 HR allowed in 209 IP to go with 198 Ks and 79 BBs, his peripherals have come a long way from a 9 BB no-hitter. Burnett has had elbow issues in the past, which may be a red flag for some teams, but if a team is confident that his joint is sound going forward, then the lessened workload may be a virtue. He has a reputation for being uncoachable, but has a previous relationship with Toronto’s pitching coach, which may swing the pendulum in their favor. In any case, look for Baltimore or Toronto to seize the opportunity to upgrade its rotation in pursuit of the falling-star Yankees and Red Sox. At least we know he won’t return to South Florida with the organizational falling out he had at season’s end.
Prediction- Baltimore; 4 years @ $52 mil

2. Paul Konerko- Hot off of a World Championship, Konerko is this year’s Carlos Beltran in that he’s vaulted from upper-mid free agent tier into the absolute top echelon by virtue of a few good weeks. Peter Gammons is talking about Konerko as the one good power hitter on the market, and while that may be a bit of an exaggeration, thumpers are indeed scarce. Just as I wrote about Boston recently, champs tend to protect their own, so look for Kenny Williams to resign Konerko to too long of a contract. He’ll be thirty next year, and BP’s PECOTA projection system sees a slow decline over the next two years, followed by a sharp one after that. With Frank Thomas, Paul Sorrento and Eric Karros high on his comps list, expect Konerko to age like cheese rather than wine.
Prediction- Chicago (A); 5 years @ $60 mil

3. Johnny Damon- At 31, Damon mentioned several times this year that the Sox gave Varitek (even older) a four year deal last year, but they weren’t giving him the same generous treatment. Without the pressures of rewarding the champs, Theo Epstein's successor should be free to notice that Damon has a skill set that does not age well, as doubles will turn into singles and infield singles into outs as he loses a step. PECOTA sees both his offense and defense becoming less than 50% as valuable by 2009, which would be the last year of a 4 year deal. Damon should be solid next year, but signing him will be a bad move for the future of any franchise.
Prediction- Chicago (N); 4 years @ $42 mil

4. Rafael Furcal- If you’re asking yourself how Furcal can be considered the fourth best free agent when he’s never been one of the biggest stars on his own team, then you’re not alone. To be fair, though, Furcal had his best season in 2005, putting up a WARP score of over eight wins. He’s become a terrific base stealer over the last three years, totaling 100 steals while being caught only 18 times. He’s also settled into an acceptable K/BB rate of about 75/60 each year, and slugs over .400 as a good fielding SS. Renteria got big money last year for being a demonstrably worse player (except in 2003), so Furcal doesn’t look at all bad, especially with a couple of prime years left.
Prediction- Atlanta; 5 years @ $60 mil (thank you, Jimmy Rollins)

5. Billy Wagner- Wagner is still a stud, but it’s a question of how much Philadelphia gains by signing him to a 3-year deal worth upwards of $30 mil, compared to a short-term deal to retain Urbina at a much smaller cost. The lineup is in good order if they can sort out the Thome-Howard situation, but they could use another starter or two who don’t give up copious amounts of HRs. If new GM Pat Gillick develops the same penchant for exorbitant reliever salaries, there will be little room for rotational improvement. Ultimately, he’s a known commodity; he will succeed in slightly diminished IP totals with the constant threat of injury. His final destination depends on how much Philly buys into the closer label.
Prediction- Philadelphia; 3 years @ $28 mil

6. Kevin Millwood- A league ERA title isn’t something at which one should scoff, and Millwood could be an excellent investment for a team in need of a couple more wins to make a playoff push. He’s no spring chicken, but he strikes guys out, limits HRs and has respectable BB totals, so he should find relative success no matter where he ends up. Millwood reminds me of an old-timey baseball player; all ideas I associate with him are pleasant. He looks tough, he sweats a lot, and he bounces from team to team while seemingly making friends wherever he goes- none of this, of course, is worth a dime's worth of salary or a single win. Scott Boras is the only downside.
Prediction- Toronto; 3 years @ $27 mil

7. B.J. Ryan- The O’s closer is Billy Wagner Lite, another hard-throwing lefty with the precious closer label. For some reason, PECOTA has him pegged for a big drop in 2007, perhaps mimicking the dip in performance of top-comp Jeff Nelson, followed by a solid rebound. Such a massive failure would surprise me, though, as I expect him to keep notching 9+ K/9 and an ERA in the 3.00s. He’s not spectacular, but he’s a solid end-of-the-bullpen arm, and would make a nice luxury item for a team with its other pieces in order.
Prediction- Baltimore; 4 years @ $24 mil (it would be a lot more without the flooded closer market)

8. Mike Piazza- Since he’s pretty much in the Fatthew Lecroy defensive role, this positioning might have more to do with sentimentality than skill. Even so, it’s not hard to imagine Piazza putting up one or two more years with 25 HRs and a near .500 SLG now that he doesn’t have to don the tools of ignorance. Piazza is one of the best offensive catchers of all time, and if he can pad his counting stats for the next couple of years, he’ll be a first ballot Hall of Famer. But which cap will he wear? Admittedly the question is not as important as whether he can push a team over the top next year with a few more doubles, but his value is split pretty evenly between New York and Los Angeles. I don’t much care as long as he doesn’t go in as a Marlin.
Prediction- Los Angeles de Los Angeles; 2 years @ $8 mil. I agonized over this one, considering Texas, Baltimore and Toronto, but the Angels’ need and Piazza’s roots are too similar.

9. Ramon Hernandez- Hernandez is an everyday catching option with good platoon splits and a solid glove. He’ll be 30 next year, so there’s the factor of a catcher’s age to worry about, although PECOTA has him settling in at a consistent if slightly diminished level of performance over the next several seasons. It probably won’t happen, but there were rumors a few weeks ago that the Yankees would shop Posada and replace him with the younger Hernandez, which would at least do wonders for his market value, as the Yankees would inevitably offer him several million more than anyone else. San Diego needs to get younger, but without a clear alternative, they’ll probably take the easy way out on this one.
Prediction- San Diego; 3 years @ $21 mil

10. Nomar Garciaparra- Certainly, he’s a dark-horse candidate, and the fervor surrounding him most closely resembles the enthusiasm of the fans who still expect Mike Tyson to make a run at the heavyweight title. Imagine if Junior Griffey had experienced his string of injuries in one contract year after another; it’s a real nightmare for Nomar. He can still hit for some power, although the low BB rate could be trouble as he ages. He fielded well at SS after his return, approaching league average to go with his plus bat. More worrisome was his pathetic attempt at the hot corner, where he put up a very un-ARod 84 Rate2, a notch below replacement level. Let’s give him some slack for learning on the fly, but his mobility and fragility will be a BIG concern from here on out.
Prediction- Los Angeles (N); 1 year @ $6 mil

Honorable Mention: Kenny Rogers, Bob Wickman, Jarrod Washburn, Ben Molina, Tom Gordon, Bernie Williams, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Morris, Trevor Hoffman

Notes: Frank Thomas still has exercised his player option with Chicago, but they have to match, as it was a mutual option. If they cut him loose, consider them a possibility for Piazza at lower cost.

The White Sox also cut bait on Carl Everett, clearing a potential roadblock for the return of the Big Hurt.

The Giants exercised a $10.5 mil option on Jason Schmidt despite injuries and a down year. He had a late peak, so don’t be surprised if he follows his most comparable pitcher, Roger Clemens, in reinventing himself as a more extreme groundball pitcher as his power fades. For a team with no choice but to win now behind a rapidly aging mega-star, it makes sense to hang on for one more year before starting the full-fledged rebuilding project.

Ranking the Champs
Part 2

10. 1992 Toronto, 24: Little distinguishes the two versions of the Blue Jays’ back to back titles other than the seven All-Stars on the ’93 team when Cito Gaston chose the reserves. You can’t go wrong with either one, although adding Rickey Henderson is a nice touch. John Olerud was the real star here, as Joe Carter’s value was tied up in having tons of RBI opportunities with Olerud, White and Alomar hitting in front of him.

9. 1988 Los Angeles, 27: The Kirk Gibson Series. After the gimpy MVP came off the bench to win Game 2, the series was basically over, ending Sparky Anderson’s last best hope at another championship. Orel Hersheiser also factored prominently in the outcome.

8. 2005 Chicago (A), 28: I’ll take it that this team is pretty fresh in the minds of most readers, but it was surprising that they ranked so highly. They did win 99 games in the regular season, even if it’s hard to find exactly where those wins came from. They also only lost one game in the entire postseason.

7. 1993 Toronto, 28.5: They probably could have been better than their 95 wins, but they kept trotting out a completely finished Jack Morris (6.19 ERA in 157 IP) and a nearly done Dave Stewart instead of a prime Al Leiter who spot started 12 times with much more effectiveness. The offense was built on highs and lows; they had 3 OBPs over .400 in Olerud (.473), Alomar (.408) and Molitor (.402) weighed down by Pat Borders (.285), Turner Ward (.287) and Ed Sprague (.310).

6. 2002 Anaheim, 29.5: Just as I expected the ’95 Braves to rank much higher than they did, I expected 2002 Anaheim to rank much lower. To be fair, they won 99 games, even though it came in second best behind the A’s in the AL West. They also exemplified the idea of a balanced roster without a star. Even the statistically weakest starters (Molina, Erstad and Eckstein) were able to contribute from time to time, and even their bad starting pitchers had decent seasons (ie- Ramon Ortiz’s 3.77 ERA despite 68 BBs and 40 HRs). Is it really just luck if it lasted all season long?

5. 1989 Oakland, 30.5: I would arbitrarily draw a line between positions 5 and 6 here as the difference between great teams and very good ones. This Oakland team was in the midst of three straight pennants and at least 99 wins per season. As much as they are known for being the Bash Brothers, both McGwire (.231 BA) and Canseco (only 65 games due to injury) had very weak seasons. The offense wasn’t very good overall, but this team prevented runs extremely well, featuring 4 17+ game winners and a trademark Tony LaRussa deep bullpen led by Dennis Eckersley.

4. 2004 Boston, 35: The ESPN readers’ pick for the best team on this list is certainly a great one, but doesn’t quite measure up to a couple of teams that caused Boston fans tremendous torment. Everything came together on offense with stars like Ramirez, Ortiz, Damon and Varitek getting more help than expected from role players like Millar, Mueller and Cabrera. As much as this was an offensively dominated team, people will have to look back on a Schilling/Martinez-led rotation as one of the all-time greats. It’s too bad Pedro was down in the one year they were together.

3. 1999 New York (A), 42.5: And thus we begin our tour of the boroughs. The difference between this team and the one from the year before was little more than everyone coming back to earth. Everyone, that is, except Derek Jeter, who gained his reputation as an elite hitter by hitting .349/.438/.552 with 134 runs scored. If you count the Chad Curtis/Ricky Ledee platoon as one everyday left-fielder, everyone in the lineup slugged over .400 with at least 12 HRs.

2. 1986 New York (N), 56.5: Even though Bill Bucker ushered the World Series through his legs, the Mets were not a fluke champion. They were strong in every facet of the game and came very close to building a dynasty of their own in Queens. They won at least 87 games and finished in the top two in the division for 7 straight years, but got to the playoffs only twice. With the current divisional alignment, they would have won the NL East every year from 1984 to 1990, and Ron Darling, Doc Gooden and Sid Fernandez are nice pieces to have in a short series. I’d be remiss not to mention all of the stars on offense, so here goes: Hall of Famer Gary Carter, Keith Hernandez, Mookie Wilson, Lenny Dykstra, Darryl Strawberry, Kevin Mitchell. Davey Johnson also had the reputation of a luminary manager, and Lee Mazzilli, Ray Knight, John Gibbons and Wally Backman have all had Major League managerial jobs from this team alone.

1. 1998 New York (A), 80.5: If you couldn’t tell from the score, it’s not even close between this Yankee team and anyone else. They won 114 regular season games, so the difference between them and this year’s White Sox is almost the same as the difference between the Sox and Twins in the AL Central. Seven starters slugged over .472, David Cone won 20 games, David Wells won 18, and Mariano Rivera was emblematic of a strong bullpen. The only chink in the armor was going to six games in the ALCS against a very strong Cleveland team. Overachieving San Diego had a deer in the headlights look through the entire World Series. Suffice to say that Chris Gomez and Quilvio Veras don’t measure up to Derek Jeter and Chuck Knoblauch. Not only are they the best team of the last 20 years, they are on a short list of teams that can be considered the greatest of all time.

So there you have it. In terms of comparison to the espn poll I mentioned yesterday, the Yankees are surprisingly underrated, recent teams are overrated, and we should maybe talk a whole lot more about the Oakland and Toronto dynasties.