Rank Me Like a Hurricane

With many rankings still ahead, I’ll keep the narrative brief today, but there are two updates I need to pass along.

1) I have been sufficiently convinced that Tony Batista will start ahead of Mike Cuddyer at third base and will change the standings accordingly. I’m putting Batista in last, moving everyone else up one game and leaving the overall standings looking like this:
Detroit: 25-11Cleveland: 22-14
Twins: 17-19Chicago: 16-20Kansas City: 10-26

This thought experiment will culminate today with rankings of each starting pitcher, closer and bullpen. I’m not even going to attempt to rank benches or managers due to uncertainty, tiny sample sizes and intangible benefits, but feel free to speculate on the effect those departments might contriubte.

2) Tomorrow morning I wake up bright and early to head west for a spring break trip to the Cactus League. I’ll see at least five games in under a week, possibly including the U.S.-Mexico WBC game at the former BOB. During the trip, I’ll be on mini-hiatus from the blog, possibly posting notes here and there, but without any full-blown columns. Upon my return I hope to put together some highlights from the trip to relay my experiences and test my greeny-green scouting chops.

Anyway, onward to the pitching rankings. “Less comments, more rankings” is the motto of the day.

#1 SP

1. Johan Santana- It would be silly to confuse this ranking with homerism as Johan projects as the best pitcher in all of baseball this season both in terms of VORP and WXRL. I’m only disappointed that Dayn Perry did not include him or Joe Mauer on his list of the 10 most valuable commodities in baseball in his recent BP chat session, even though Jake Peavy and Roy Halladay made the list.

2. Mark Buerhle- I’m high on Buehrle; I think he’s just a tiny cut below the absolute cream of the pitching crop, but still a valuable piece as a lefty who eats tons of innings.

3. Cliff Lee- He doesn’t seem like a no. 1 guy, but what Cleveland lacks in ace-status they make up for in depth (as you’ll see in the rankings for nos. 4-5). By the way, I’m sticking to the mlb.com pitching depth charts rather than arbitrarily assigning positions.

4. Kenny Rogers- There seems to be a handedness theme going here, but Rogers does not share the rest of the group’s youth. The grey in his beard is code for injury and attrition danger, pushing him down the list.

5. Runelvys Hernandez- How mlb.com decided to rank a guy no. 1 coming off of arm trouble and a 5.56 ERA, 88-70 K/BB season, I will never know. Even Greinke would probably land at the bottom of this list, but he’d at least challenge Rogers.

#2 SP

1. Freddy Garcia- He no longer gets the buzz, but lining up his projection next to Josh Beckett’s makes them look pretty even. What Garcia gives up in RA, he gets back in IP and doesn’t run nearly the same injury risk.

2. C.C. Sabathia- Either Radke, Bonderman or Sabathia could fall here, but Sabathia has a durable body type, a decently consistent track record and projects to .9 more wins than Radke and .6 more than Bonderman by WXRL.

3. Jeremy Bonderman- He has a very high ceiling and 23 seems like a good age to start showing some progress. Between Santana, Buehrle, Bonderman, Sabathia and Garland, this division has lots of solid pitching age 27 or younger.

4. Brad Radke- Used to be one of the better pitchers in the division, but his regression and shoulder trouble are not markers of a big season to come. I’m surprised more Twins fans don’t talk about the potential of losing him for a long time, which is a very real one.

5. Scott Elarton- Still no Greinke? I’m going to vociferously disagree with mlb.com’s rotational projections, but keep slotting them in at no. 5.

#3 SP

1. Javier Vazquez- I rank him slightly ahead of Garcia overall, which should explain why he tops this list.

2. Carlos Silva- Another very close race from 2-5, but Silva, Byrd, Greinke and Maroth all project to an EqERA above 4.00 and Silva has the combination of youth and a strong 2005. PECOTA grounds its pessimism in a belief that his BB rate will nearly triple, a skepticism I’m not so ready to buy.

3. Paul Byrd- One way or another, Byrd and Jason Johnson have to fill the production of Millwood and an overachieving Elarton from last year’s Cleveland rotation. Since Byrd seems due for an injury, I think this is one place to be worried about regression for the Indians. Still, Byrd is a talented no. 3.

4. Zack Greinke- I like his upside, but he might be a case of over-hyping a good pitcher. Even if he tops out as a strong mid-rotation guy, he’s an asset to a team without young and cheap pitchers. I’d rank him higher if he hadn’t been so dismal last year, even though I think there is a strong chance at a rebound.

5. Mike Maroth- Another in the lefty-heavy division, Maroth may never shed the 20-game loser label among casual fans, but he can be an above-average starter, which is worthwhile in itself.

#4 SP

1. Jake Westbrook- His top comp is Kevin Brown, he’s 28 years old, he’s had a run of good performance and he probably deserves to rank higher than several of the guys in the last two categories.

2. Jose Contreras- A strong postseason made him seem like an ace, but he’s at least 34 years old (I’ll buy it, but it’s still not good news), and has had a very strange career path. He could very well blow Westbrook away, but I’ll take the certainty at this level.

3. Nate Robertson- I think there is a large drop from 2-3 although Robertson is not a scrub. Excluding the Royals, there has yet to be a true weak spot in any team’s rotation.

4. Kyle Lohse- Throughout baseball history, there must be hundreds of guys who seem like they should be so much better than they are with some sort of mental block appearing to be the problem. The frequency of the occurrence makes it a predictable career arc, and Lohse fits squarely on it, making his continued mediocrity unsurprising- but no less frustrating.

5. Mark Redman- A few years ago he looked like an eventual front-line guy for the Twins. It seemed very dumb to trade him for a couple months of a washed up Todd Jones for the 2001 pennant race, but look how these things work out. Now, Jones is the one signing a lucrative multi-year free agent deal while Redman is trying to work his way back to respectability.

#5 SP

1. John Garland- Like I promised, the rotational depth of Cleveland and Chicago plays out in the end. In both cases, the high end is not that high, but the low end is pretty solid, which serves to keep them in most games.

2. Jason Johnson- Although he’d rank much lower if his dialysis machine violates the new doping policy. (A joke)

3. Justin Verlander- He and Baker project as part time starters, complicating their numbers. Verlander could easily surpass Johnson, or even Garland, but I’ll take the modest expectation, and I’d rather have him than Baker this year and for his career (although Liriano would be better if on the list). Plus, I wanted to continue my little chain of alliteration.

4. Scott Baker- I used to get excited about Baker. Now, he seems like another mid-rotation starter who will help the Twins, but in a pretty vanilla way. We’re spoiled with gimmicky pitchers, like Silva with his miniscule BB rate and Johan’s K’s, but the world needs ditch diggers too.

5. Jeremy Affeldt- He’s still a starter? I don’t think mlb.com knows, either, since they have KC projected to go with an 8-man rotation. Doesn’t much matter since Joe Mays would easily rank 5th as well.

Closer

1. Joe Nathan- Maybe one could argue on behalf of Bobby Jenks here, but Nathan has been very solid for two straight years. Bobby Jenks was in and out of baseball with serious injuries during that time, so Nathan’s high fly-ball rate does not fatally wound his chances to top this ranking at a slightly thinner position.

2. Bobby Jenks- …but he is still filthy. The bionic elbow is worrisome, as is the violent delivery, but Ozzie knows how to leverage his bullpen and having Jenks as the relief ace is more comforting to Southsiders than the Shingo Takatsus and Dustin Hermansons of the world.

3. Bob Wickman- Not terrible, but it says something about the value of save totals when your GM tries to replace you with a 38 year old after a 45 saves season. I’m holding it against Wickman that he played an instrumental role in beating my fantasy team in the championship round last year. He’s also ugly (I’m not vengeful, I swear).

4. Todd Jones- I’m not a fan, and you could put Mike MacDougal here, but it just seems so comfortable to know you can always find the Royals right at the bottom of the list.

5. Mike MacDougal- Yup, bottom of the list. If the image of the closer was a control pitcher who uses deception rather than power, MacDougal would absolutely be out of a job and the Royals might be better off for it.

Bullpen at large

1. Minnesota- I though long and hard about this ranking because Cleveland and Chicago have to be considered the favorites. Still, I’ll defend this ranking defiantly since there is a better chance that the Twins effectively leverage Liriano in the Earl Weaver role than there is of Chicago using McCarthy as such. Plus, any attrition in Jesse Crain should be offset by the increased innings for Rincon and Liriano. Gardenhire also knows how to use his best guys at crucial moments, a skill which should not be ignored.

2. Chicago- Cotts, Hermanson and Politte should be solid, and Ozzie will find others if they are not. They do a good job making the bullpen fungible and flexible, the value of which was clear in the playoffs. I’m keeping them out of first because they seem to top out at very good with little room for improvement.

3. Cleveland- Last year’s best bullpen should fall back substantially with the losses of Dave Risky, Bob Howry and Arthur Rhodes. I’d listen to arguments for ranking them higher, but they, too, seem content with a cheap and decent bullpen for this year- and that may be a very good use of resources.

4. Detroit- Unproven, but with lots of live arms. They could surprise and be the cream of the crop, but I’m taking a wait and see approach.

5. Kansas City- Ahh, why not? They really are not that bad here with Burgos and Sisco continuing to develop out of the pen, but the ranking is in earnest. Think of it as a 5th place ranking rather than a last place.

Pitching Rankings:

Chicago: 24-4
Twins: 18-10
Cleveland: 18-10
Detroit: 9-19
Kansas City: 1-27

Final Cumulative Rankings:

Chicago: 40-24
Cleveland: 40-24
Twins: 35-29
Detroit: 34-30
Kansas City: 11-53

Okay, so KC will probably be a little better than that. But the rankings and relative distance smells right, so I’m satisfied with the experiment. Talk to you all in a week or so.