Gratuitous Mis-Valuation

Steven Goldman, a blogger who writes for the official YES network website, recently ran an ingenious series where he ranked starters at each position for each team, counting finishing ahead of another team as a win and vice versa. In other words, if a team plays in a five team division and has the second best second baseman, it would go 3-1 in rankings for second base. Setting aside the problem of ignoring complementary skills and team chemistry, the system fails to account for how much better or worse a player is at a certain position. For example, if Albert Pujols ranks as the best first baseman in the NL Central, ranking him ahead of Mike Lamb is worth the same win as ranking him ahead of Derek Lee when the team actually gets much less value out of the second “win.” The results do not look so bad, as the AL East descends as one would predict: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, D-Rays with believable records, if a little bit more polarized than real ones.

Always one to ape a good idea, I decided to perform the same analysis for the AL Central. Given the multiplicity of positions, it could take a while, but I will get started today by ranking players roughly by their PECOTA projections, adjusting for likelihood of injury, likelihood of sustaining playing time and other impressions the projections may not encompass. I will also post cumulative records at the end of each edition of the column.

Catcher

1. Joe Mauer- Baseball Prospectus referred to Mauer as one of the ten most valuable commodities in baseball for the next ten years, which may be reasonable whether he stays at catcher or not. He’s young enough that his power will continue to develop, but he’s good enough that it does not have to develop for him to be valuable.

2. Victor Martinez- After a slow start in 2005, I remember reading that Martinez has a dangerous profile that is susceptible to big swings in production and early decline. He’s only 27 and he plays decent defense so it is not about time for that to start. Even among catchers, Martinez has an exceptionally low speed score, which could come back to hurt him later.

3. Ivan Rodriguez- PECOTA sees a rebound from his vanishing BB totals last year, which better happen since his BA will do less and less to buoy his OBP as he gets older.

4. A.J. Pierzynski- I also liked A.J. as a Twin, but he slipped big time when he ended up playing for the rivals from the Southside. Then he completely redeemed himself by making Steve Perry the face of the team and doing a stint as a pro wrestling escort.

5. John Buck- The Royals are not going to win a lot of these positions. Buck is a symptom of an inept front office, not the disease itself.

First Base

1. Paul Konerko- I have said many times that I am not high on Konerko’s contract, but that does not mean I think he does not have value at present. He will hit plenty of HRs in the Cell, and they’re plenty valuable.

2. Justin Morneau- I have my doubts about just how much Morneau can grow in one season. It is one thing to rebound to a previously established level of performance; it is quite another to make that growth for the first time after regressing. Still, he’s second best.

3. Chris Shelton/Carlos Pena- Shelton is a lot better than Pena and represents one of the little decisions on Jim Leyland’s plate that could be the difference between another bad year and borderline contention. Either way, they’re firmly entrenched in third place.

4. Ben Broussard- If you’ve started wondering where some of the better hitters have gone, I’m doing another category for the DH. Here is another example of where a team could improve by going younger; Mike Aubrey is a prime prospect and would provide better performance at a lower cost.

5. Doug Mientkiewicz- It will be more fun to watch him flail from a distance. KC is 0-2 in staying out of the basement.

Second Base

1. Placido Polanco- It might surprise that an older player who has never had a regular job places this well, but Polanco has a solid all-around skill set and hit well after he got to Detroit. Even though he’s already 30, he easily outdistances the competition in VORP.

2. Luis Castillo- The Twins big offseason upgrade does not fix their problem of hitting for power, but he keeps them out of the basement on this list.

3. Tadahito Iguchi- Almost without exception, Japanese players have either been good or bad off of the bat and progressed accordingly. Hideki Matsui, Ichiro and Hideo Nomo started well and remained productive as one would expect. Hideki Irabu and Kaz Matsui were never productive. Iguchi started well and last year’s performance is a fair benchmark.

4. Ronny Belliard- Last year it looked as if the Tribe would cut bait on Belliard and go younger, but they got a good deal on the journeyman and decided to give it another year. He’s slated for a decline, but only to the realm of the league average second baseman.

5. Mark Grudzielanek- He is not nearly as relatively awful as the other Royals so far, but it does not matter.

Third Base

1. Mike Cuddyer- The fact that a player who has to fight for his own starting job ranks as the best player at his position in the division says a lot about the position. The fact that Tony Batista might not be the worst either says even more.

2. Brandon Inge- He has more value as a fantasy catcher, but he plays exceptional corner defense and hits for a little power.

3. Joe Crede- Maybe it comes from late-season heroics, but I keep wanting to rank Crede higher than is reasonable. He probably will not have a tremendous breakout, and Kenny Williams will probably keep his eyes open for a better option.

4. Mark Teahen- I’ll be honest, I had written in Aaron Boone without looking at Teahen’s projection, but upon further review, Teahen is scheduled to close off some of his tremendous room for improvement by hitting a handful of XBHs.

5. Aaron Boone- You can move the Indians up to the number one position as soon as they abandon Boone’s character for Andy Marte’s skill. Even if they make the tradeoff at midseason, Marte may make up all of the ground on Cuddyer and Inge.

Shortstop

1. Jhonny Peralta- He’s young and he does lots of things very well, especially hitting for power. Also, bonus points for misspelling your own name in a completely non-phonetic way.

2. Carlos Guillen- The ability to hit and field is present, but the ability to stay healthy is a skill in itself, and one Guillen severely lacks. With Omar Infante behind him and Polanco, the Tigers will have plenty of time to rest Guillen, but the question is whether a little rest will be enough to keep him up to his high standards, especially at such a demanding position.

3. Jason Bartlett- Again, I’m not holding it against him that he has yet to win the job outright. Bartlett has a lower playing time projection than many of those around him, but projects to a similar VORP, and he gets extra credit for his underrated glove.

4. Juan Uribe- Sure, he doesn’t hit for average or draw walks, but a shortstop with as much range as Uribe can get by with one offensive skill, and his power hitting does just that. He plays in the right home park to squeeze every bit of value out of that skill, as well.

5. Angel Berroa- Even a former Rookie of the Year cannot salvage the Royals start. He’s no Pat Listach, but along with Bob Hamelin, the Royals do not have much a recent track record for ROYs. Even though they compete with the Twins, here’s hoping the Royals do not actually start 1-19.

Standings through 5 IF positions

Twins: 16-4 (phenomenal start considering position players are the weakness)
Detroit: 14-6
Chicago: 10-10
Cleveland: 9-11
Royals: 1-19