Faster than a Speeding Bullet, More Powerful than a Locomotive

The debate about fast runners versus power hitters is not really a relevant one since both skills provide ways to win and it is relatively simple to quantify each group’s skills. If you still have your doubts about the value of power hitters, consider that last year saw Adam Dunn hit .247 while accumulating 45.0 runs of VORP, whereas positional peer Scott Podsednik- the poster boy of speed thrills baseball- managed a .290 BA and 59 SBs which yielded only 5.8 runs of VORP. In other words, Dunn was more than seven times more productive that Podsednik at the plate. Peripheral stats, such as Podsednik’s zero HRs (which, if you had forgotten, score runs with great efficiency) and 47 BBs held down his offensive value. His defense certainly helps, but even the disruption effect is overrated, as a recent study demonstrated that hitters do not fare appreciably better with fast runners on base compared to slow ones.

So what is the point? The point is that we can compare whole teams based on this same principle: speed versus power. Maybe my desire to put together All-something teams goes back to the days when I would fantasy rosters for no league or purpose in particular. Maybe it is a reflection of my not-so-latent desire to run a baseball team. Either way, I have been writing lots of columns constructing teams recently, and I’m thoroughly enjoying it. For this comparison, I’m taking the highest PECOTA projections of SB+3B for the speed team and the highest HR projections for the power team.

Speed Team

C- Joe Mauer (9 SB, 3 3B): Despite concerns about his knees, he narrowly beats out Jason Kendall and Pudge Rodriguez, keeping speedy catcher dominance in the AL. Mauer also has the highest speed score (a measure that standardizes SB, SB%, DP rate, 3B and R to a score from 0-10 with an average of 5) among catchers. At 5.5, he beats out Pudge’s 5.2, the only other above-average catcher score.

1B- Albert Pujols (13 SB, 2 3B): Maybe this matchup won’t be so lopsided now that the speed team has started its roster by nabbing a high-OBP C and the best hitter on the planet.

2B- Ryan Freel (28 SB, 3 3B): One would expect the speed to start ramping up at 2B, but other than Freel, Alfonso Soriano is the next best with only 18 SB. True, Freel can hardly hit, but once he gets on base he runs like he can’t wait to get back.

3B- Chone Figgins (40 SB, 8 3B): This race isn’t even close; Figgins more than doubles everyone’s SB totals and his 6.4 speed score is almost a full point better than A-Rod’s runner-up 5.5. Figgins even has nearly adequate OBP skills, projecting to a .334 OBP- not great, but in the same neighborhood of the Ryan Zimmermans and Mike Lowells of the world.

SS- Jose Reyes (57 SB, 9 3B): The race for second features B.J. Upton, Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal all within 2 SB+3B of one another, but the less productive Reyes dominates all of them to assume his rightful position as crappy leadoff hitter on the speed team. He also has the most SB+3B of anyone.

OF- Juan Pierre (49 SB, 7 3B): Pierre went from underrated in Colorado to overrated in Florida, a funny move for a hitter. But, Pierre is a funny hitter, and his world championship is partially responsible for the movement back towards speed and defense.

OF- Carl Crawford (45 SB, 10 3B): Crawford has a bit of power, a high BA, a solid glove and lots of perceived value. None of these measures up to his speed score of 7.6, though, which dwarfs even Jose Reyes’ 7.0.

OF- Scott Podsednik (43 SB, 4 3B): If you are surprised that Sir Speedy himself only projects to 4 3B, think of a triple as a double for a fast player. Podsednik has so little power that he does not have many chances to turn two baggers into three, leaving him with a low projection.

Power Team

C- Jason Varitek (20 HR): I mentioned Varitek as a cautionary tale for teams signing nice guys to longer deals than they deserve. He still has enough value in the tank to out-homer some slap hitting backstops, but his PT and its quality are not about to get any better.

1B- David Ortiz (43 HR): Texeira, Howard and Pujols tied at 41 apiece, but Ortiz can slide into 1B since this team probably won’t focus much on defense anyway. Luckily, Fenway’s park effects vault him ahead of Pujols, who has the highest SLG, preventing Pujols from having to play against himself in this fantasy speed-power game.

2B- Alfonso Soriano (26 HR): Like Pujols, the Fonz almost made two appearances on the list. And yes, the projection is run for RFK rather than Ameriquest Field which makes the race with Jorge Cantu much closer.

3B- Alex Rodrigeuz (43 HR): The presence of the second best player may help offset Pujols’ presence on the other team. A-Rod brings to the table durability, speed and defense to go with his big stick, something that cannot be said of the three above him on this list.

SS- Miguel Tejada (25 HR): Tejada’s 5 HR lead on second place is pretty large in itself, but seems a lot larger when you consider second place is occupied by Juan Uribe. Along with Cantu, Howard and Troy Glaus, the second-place HR hitters are a lost riskier.

OF- Barry Bonds (48 HR): Nobody compares to Bonds, so it is hard to get a good reading on his progression, especially after the injury. I will say that leading the league in HR is a looooongshot for Bonds, as is his projected 642 PAs.

OF- Adam Dunn (41 HR): Even though Dunn will play most 1B, he has a LF projection based on the last couple of seasons out there. He’s huge and uses it to his advantage, typifying the player whose value comes primarily by way of the HR.

OF- Manny Ramriez- Manny joins A-Rod and Tejada on this team as players who have no glaring weaknesses at the plate. Bonds’ durability and Papi’s platoon splits make them seem less like pure hitters, but all of these guys would be solid in any hitting environment.

There you have it. It jumps out that the speed-defense stereotype certainly holds true in this comparison, since the first team plays far better defense than the second. In fact, a team with the Fonz and Manny next to Dunn in the OF could be very terrible. Still, it would be hard to imagine the speed team beating out the power team over the long-haul given the abundance of excellent overall hitters who also have HR power.