American League Record Projections

AL West

Oakland 91-71
Los Angeles of Anaheim 84-78
Texas 83-79
Seattle 71-91

AL Central

Cleveland 89-73
Chicago 87-75
Minnesota 82-80
Detroit 78-84
Kansas City 66-96

AL East

New York 90-72
Boston 88-74
Toronto 84-78
Tampa 73-81
Baltimore 72-90

Notes

-As we saw with Chicago last year, a few good breaks can bring a team far above or below what anyone previously saw as a reasonable projection. Additionally, teams that win or lose close to 100 games usually have some unforeseen luck on their sides (few injuries, unexpected breakouts, a record incommensurate with run differential), so more modest projections are usually smarter ones. In this case, I think there are four teams in the American League who could conceivably push 100 wins, including Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, New York and Boston. However, at least one of those teams will have some bad luck and at least one will have some good luck, meaning that these five teams projected within a seven game range will probably have something closer to a 20 game range by the end of the season. The same applies to the bottom end, although you will notice that I picked Kansas City to lose five more games than I have any team winning or losing (a testament to the team’s low potential). Generally, it seems that people want to be generous when making projections for teams, whether they figure to be on the low end or the high end of the divisional standings. This theory certainly holds true through the rosy glasses of local media, but I think it extends further than that. If it looks odd that I have the Orioles winning only 72 games, keep in mind that they did little to fix the problems that made them a 74 win team last year, and they’re even older than they were before. I would rather pick every team to win 5 more games and take credit for predicting breakouts, but as it stands, I have the AL performing a total of three games above .500, which brings me to my next comment.

-…which deals with the general superiority of the American League. Consider some of the major player movements of the off-season: A.J. Burnett goes from NL to AL, Jeff Weaver from NL to AL, Jim Thome, Luis Castillo, Josh Beckett, Troy Glaus, Javier Vazquez, Esteban Loaiza. In Jim Baker’s article, he points out that the average projected VORP of transient pitchers going from the NL to AL is 28.0 while the average going the other way is 8.8. For a league that has won the World Series only twice in the last eight years, that kind of attrition doesn’t make for very good prospects. Not only are the worst of the AL generally better than the worst of the NL, most serious title contenders come from the AL too. More on this issue tomorrow.

-After last year’s World Series victory, Kenny Williams said that he didn’t think his team had gained enough respect to get picked to win the AL Central in 2006. As much as I feel a responsibility to at least pick the defending champs to make it back to the postseason, I cannot bring myself to do so. Since run differential is a better predictor of future performance than a team’s record, Chicago has to overcome a two game deficit from last year. Did they improve more than Cleveland? They certainly got two good players in Thome and Vazquez, but they have to replace a pretty solid level of performance they got from McCarthy/Hernandez and Rowand (at least defensively). They also acquired quite a bit of risk in Thome’s back and whatever noise Vazquez had going on in his arm when he was with the Yankees. Cleveland, meanwhile, benefits from getting a full season out of Sizemore and Peralta to go with the underrated Jason Michaels in left. And while neither Paul Byrd nor Jason Johnson is Kevin Millwood, they should be able to approximate the difference between Millwood and Elarton who they will combine to replace. I’m a little concerned about Cleveland’s bullpen, which lost Arthur Rhodes and Dave Riske, but with Minnesota and Detroit as legitimate threats, Chicago is hardly a safe pick to win the division.

-The one team who could seriously embarrass me on this list is Seattle. I’m not very high on the rotation other than King Felix, but there is some upside here. (Into Gammons mode) If Felix is even better than we all anticipate, putting up Cy Young contending numbers. If Kenji Jojima is better than expected and provides 3-4 more wins behind the plate than the sludge he replaces. If Adrian Beltre magically channels his pre-steroid testing, walk year bat. If Ichiro defies the aging process and hits above .350. If Jose Lopez has a side order of bat with his main dish of glove. And if Jamie Moyer, Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro all have something approximating career years, then the Mariners could blow right past 80 wins on their way almost 90. But that likelihood is diminishingly small, especially in the best division in baseball.