It’s a Madden, Madden, Madden, Madden World

At this point, I cannot write an article about the history of the Madden cover jinx; that ship has sailed. People who have never played Madden know all about the Madden cover jinx, and I would venture to say that there are even some folks who have never played video games who are vaguely familiar with the jinx. On the other hand, I find the whole brouhaha fascinating, and I do not want to go down in the annals of sports journalism as one of those ignorant souls who mistook this overpowering metaphysical phenomenon for mere superstition.

For what it is worth, the Madden cover jinx is not really surprising. Think about the type of player who gets on the cover of Madden: a highly talented player coming off a year or string of years of highly successful play. Even more often, the player comes from a team that has recently pulled off a once-in-a-lifetime feat like an historic Super Bowl run or an Indianapolis-esque offensive surge. So is it remarkable that players fall from such a high point? Of course not; it is called regression to the mean, and anyone who knows anything about economics knows that precisely the types of heroics that get a player on the Madden cover are the types of heroics that make a player ripe for a fall. Especially in football, it is remarkable just to stay healthy and one of the biggest elements of a successful NFL season is avoiding major injuries through the entire year. Getting on the cover requires being at the absolute top of one’s game, and the likelihood of staying there is short in any sport, even shorter than usual in the NFL.

The point is, there is nothing mythical about the Madden cover jinx. But imagine if there was… (stroking chin as harp plays and camera zooms in slowly).

2007: Shaun Alexander graced the cover of the most recent Madden game, dooming himself to a letdown after finally reaching the pinnacle. Alexander had been remarkably consistent, one of the best backs in the NFL year in and year out. Finally, the Seahawks worked him especially hard all the way to the Super Bowl. Alexander started showing signs of wear in the playoffs, and crumpled more decisively under the pressure of following up the NFC title. Alexander is a poster boy for why the jinx is perfectly reasonable, as explained above.

2008: EA Sports finally succumbs to placing Peyton Manning on the cover of their next Madden game, making him the official spokesperson for a majority (251) of the Fortune 500 companies. Due to a little known side-effect of state of the art camera technology, Manning contracts what will soon be known BSD (Britney Spears Disease), an affliction which eats away the part of the brain that controls the impulse to act like a redneck. Manning promptly grows a bad goatee, starts carrying a cooler full of Old Style and a tin of Grizzly chewing tobacco on the sideline, and wears wife-beater undershirts to all press conference. Oddly enough, his drawl remains unchanged. Midway through the season, Manning abruptly retires from the NFL to pursue his lifelong dream of racing those pickups that look like stock cars and drive on dirt tracks. In his first race, Manning refuses to use the safety harness that could have saved Dale Earnhardt, or any other safety equipment, for that matter. He dies after crashing head-first into the wall on the first lap, failing to accomplish racing’s one crucial task: turning left. In his stead, Jim Sorgi leads the Colts over the Patriots in the AFC title game because he has tons of clutch in his big bag of intangibles.

2009: Nobody appears on Madden’s cover, as the No Fun League bans any reproduction of player likenesses, as it enhances the “me-first” attitude that plagues the league. Not a single player experiences any serious injuries or discomfort over the course of the year. Some journalists attribute this happy occurrence to the accompanying rule changes of dressing the players in inflatable sumo suits, and playing games on enormous 100 yd x 53 yd WWE rings made out of canvas and springs.

2010: In a return to tradition, John Madden returns to the cover all alone. During NBC’s first Sunday Night game of the year, Madden’s head explodes, revealing a gigantic Tur-Duck-En atop his shoulders. Al Michaels does not blink, then breaks down the spontaneous combustion with a telestrator, later commenting that it was, “one of the three or four most surprising things [Madden] did on air” during their tenure as coworkers. NBC promptly files breach of contract papers, severing all ties from Madden in fear of PETA protests. FOX immediately signs Tur-Duc-En Madden to an eleven year contract to host a reality show about North Korean refugees living on South Beach.

2011: As a symbol of global unity with the new NFL franchises in Asia and Europe, EA Sports opts for a picture of a globe for the cover. The results are grim. Iran quickly lobs a nuclear warhead toward Israel, causing Israel to retaliate, infuriating Pakistani Muslims, who launch their own weapons over the Kashmir, drawing the US into the war due to allied allegiances with India, setting off the Russian high-alert systems, which prompts the Sino-Russian co-defense system to react by attacking over the Taiwan Strait, and North Korea launching at Japan, for a total of roughly 25 nuclear launches in the 15 minute period following the release of the Madden game, plunging the world into nuclear winter and near extinction, saving for termites, who start their own professional football league, stupidly reviving the Madden franchise 65,000,000 years in the future, once they have evolved into sentient beings capable of making video games systems. [and… exhale].

65,002,012: Termite-human John Madden appears on the cover with Xytralt Obsctraclintoxx3, the best termite-human player who promptly suffers a sprained third thoraxal leg, missing the last 231 games of the season, and causing the New New New Mexico Redskins (which is no longer an offensive term since termite-humans are all red) to miss the playoffs for the first time.

There you have it. Beware the power of the Madden cover jinx, or it could lead to unspeakably wicked consequences, the likes of which we have yet to even contemplate.

BONANZA! part II

The thrilling conclusion to the 2006 free agent countdown...

5. Alfonso Soriano- I suspect that most free agent lists would have Zito and Soriano as interchangeable numbers one and two, perhaps with a few placing Matsuzaka near the top of the list. And while I just finished dissing the idea of overspending on pitching due to the market conditions, I am still placing Soriano a little further down the list. To see why, I will start by looking at some of the things that Soriano does well. He hits lots of homeruns, and does so consistently enough in variable circumstances that it is clearly a repeatable skill rather than a product of his time in hitter-friendly Arlington. He runs very well, getting a handful of cheap hits and stealing bases well enough to make it an asset for the team. In further defense, what some may call his greatest offensive weakness- his capacity to strike out- is not nearly the weakness that some may think it is, since his power numbers show the upside of swinging for the fences on any count. Finally, he provides his team with some versatility, since he can nominally play multiple defensive positions, at least 2B and LF, perhaps even RF or CF.

That is the way an optimist may frame the Soriano scouting report. Conversely, I could describe him as an undisciplined hitter whose lack of patience means that his power may eventually dry up, as it did somewhat before moving to the National League. His speed is useful, though he does not use it optimally since he also runs into plenty of outs, and all of these problems are compounded by the fact that he does not field well enough to have a true position anywhere on the field. Most importantly, the skills that he does possess are the ones that certain executives tend to overvalue. Soriano will make top dollar, not necessarily because he has the total package to offer to a team, but because he has the specific package of skills that makes him extremely appealing.

If you think Soriano might end up as a bargain, consider the opposite type of player from Soriano. He would be quietly consistent at a premium defensive position, would hit for power without hitting a huge number of homeruns, would draw lots of walks, pulling up an OBP without a flashy batting average. For the purposes of this discussion, I will call such a player “Craig Biggio,” someone who has played for a dozen contenders over the last couple of decades, contributing a remarkably stable level of performance far below the radar. Biggio has never made $15 million in a season. He has never been overexposed, and he still does not get the credit that he deserves. If the opposite player type of Soriano is chronically underpaid, it does not necessarily follow that Soriano would be overpaid. Even so, trust me, he will be overpaid.

Prediction: 6 years, $100 million with New York (N)

4. Aramis Ramirez- The top ranked position player on my list is one who was not even sure to be a free agent a few weeks ago after opting out of the end of his deal with the Cubs. Unlike Soriano, whose unharmonious time in Washington grew his free agent buzz through the year, Ramirez sprung up at the last moment. If you pay attention to what the teams are saying instead of sportswriters, you will notice that almost every team has an interest in Ramirez, probably because he plays a thin position fairly well, has several good years in front of him, and has a middle-of-the-order bat. Comparing his line directly to Soriano’s, the two are nearly indistinguishable. Ramirez hit .291/.352/.561 against Soriano’s .277/.351/.560. Soriano was still more valuable for his peripheral contributions, such as 41 steals, only 3 GIDP, and 4 times more intentional walks. I prefer Ramirez anyway, because Soriano’s glove is already suspect, and will likely only get worse as he gets further on the wrong side of 30. Moreover, Soriano just posted his career-best OBP and SLG in his age 30 season, not a position that cries out “repeatable.” Ramirez, on the other hand, posted nearly the exact same batting line at a more difficult defensive position, is two years younger than the Fonz, and had played at an even higher level for two years before the two matched each other in 2006. Setting all of that aside, Ramirez will likely come a little cheaper, which is an important consideration in a year where salaries will likely explode.

More generally, Ramirez plays at a position with a little more scarcity than Soriano. A huge number of potential contenders either have an uncertain situation at third base, or could really use an upgrade to get them over the hump. The Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Angels, and Twins all have weak spots at third. The Red Sox, Indians, Astros, and Reds have at least some uncertainty going forward. And the Rangers, Brewers, and Tigers could be in search of a third baseman before too long, as they have all discussed moving their current starters. Maybe the competition will drive the bidding for Ramirez through the roof, but he has handled his free agency in a low-key way so far, which could very easily continue. As I see it, Ramirez would be best used on a team that already has an established core and could add him on the margins to give them a couple of extra wins. The Dodgers and Angels definitely fit the description, and the Phillies would be wise to try to get into the conversation, as their third base void was more of a problem than their starting rotation at the end of the season.

Prediction: 5 years, $65 million with Los Angeles (N)

3. Jason Schmidt- Like Ramirez, Schmidt has not received so much media attention in the last few months about his impending free agency. In fact, he has been so overlooked that the Giants supposedly considered trading him to the White Sox at the trade deadline to get something in return, even though they were still in the playoff race. I would guess that Schmidt lost some of his momentum in 2005, when he battled injuries to a 4.40 ERA in 172 IP, his worst results after assuming star status upon his trade to the Giants in mid-season 2001. Over that span, he struck out at least 180 batters in four out of his five full seasons, won 78 games, and never gave up more than 21 homeruns. Certainly, his home park has helped keep the HR and ERA totals down, but no matter how you look at it, Schmidt has been one of the more consistent and durable starters over the last five years, and should continue to be for a few more years. He may not bridge into the “ace” category that people like Scott Boras like to mention, though that is no knock considering that he is easily one of the 30 best starting pitchers in the majors, probably ranking much higher.

My first impression of Schmidt’s free agency was that he would prove to be the steal of the free agent market. He is not so terribly far behind Zito in terms of what I would expect from him in the next two or three years, and pitchers of his type tend to age at least reasonably well. One major concern is that his three most similar pitchers through age 33 won a combined zero games after their age 33 seasons. Jack McDowell and Ramon Martinez never pitched again, and Bartolo Colon, like Schmidt, will enter his age-34 season in 2007. Even with that caveat, I believe that Schmidt could be a very good player over the life of his contract, and Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA forecaster agrees, giving him between 20-25% chance of being a “superstar” caliber player from now until 2009.

One factor that has changed between the time I started thinking about the free agent market and today is the level of attention teams have paid to Schmidt as a top-shelf starter. While he received almost no love in early discussions, which all seemed to center around Barry Zito, Schmidt’s name now crops up right behind Zito’s in nearly every conversation about starting pitching. Although I do not think less of him as a player, I do think less of him as a free agent, as the buzz will translate into a more burdensome contract.

Prediction: 4 years, $50 million with Boston

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka- I wish I could say more about Matsuzaka. Watching him in the WBC, he looked like a dominant number one starter. Then again, lots of dominant number one starters looked like career minor leaguers in the WBC, and others who dominated did so against week competition. Contrary to rumors, he does not throw a gyroball, at least not yet, and at least not in games. He has generated a lot of buzz as one of the top pitchers in baseball. How much of that is Scott Boras blowing smoke across the continent, I have no idea.

To me, the most interesting part of Matsuzaka’s transition into the Major Leagues is the mainstreaming of the posting process that brings players across the Pacific. As far as reports have indicated, any team that wants to bid for Matsuzaka will post a sealed bid to the Japanese league, at which point, the league will hand over the highest bid to Matsuzaka’s team. Whichever team submitted the highest bid will then give that amount of money to the Japanese team, and they will have exclusive negotiating rights with the player, which might hamstring Scott Boras in the negotiations since he cannot play teams against one another. If the team makes a good faith effort to sign Matsuzaka and fails, he can return to his Japanese team, or the team can choose to accept the second highest posting bid, and he can negotiate with that team. What constitutes a “good faith” negotiation seems arbitrary to me, and Bud Selig makes the determination as to whether a second team gets involved, which seems like a problem in the process.

Another problem comes from the possibility for corruption, such as a secret agreement between two teams. Say, for example, an American team places a sealed bid of $200 million, a number that would obviously win the bidding. But instead of actually paying the $200 million, they would have a hush-hush agreement with the Japanese team that they will pay 10% more than the second highest bid- the highest legitimate bid. Is any Major League team shady enough to try such a stunt? Probably not, but we might never know, even if it comes true. If players are going to be moving back and forth, the leagues should set up a unified posting procedure from one team to another rather than from league to league in order to streamline the process in the same way that European soccer teams negotiate with one another.

Prediction: 5 years, $70 million with New York (A)

1. Barry Zito- Teams will line up to pay for Zito’s durability, consistency, and predictability. He had his Cy Young season, and he had his 2004, which was about as far below his normal level as his Cy Young year was above it. The variation is small and acceptable in either direction. More importantly, several of the big budget teams who look to be in the running for Zito have rotations built around other pitchers signed as free agents, who are therefore older, and often therefore frailer (Yankees- Johnson, Mussina, Pavano, Wright; Mets- Martinez; Red Sox- Schilling, Wakefield). Thus, Zito’s stability may be of even greater value to these teams who do not have many pitchers who are actually still in their prime.

There is the case behind signing Zito. On the other hand, consider that he will absolutely make ace money, even though he stands virtually no possibility of actually pitching at a commensurate level. Looking again at PECOTA, Zito projects to be worth $6.4 million or less in each of the next four years. I might be overrating some of these picks, but I do not think there is any chance Zito will make anywhere in the neighborhood of $6.4 million per year over the life of his contract.

So signing Zito is going to be someone’s mistake. My guess is that it will be the Mets’ mistake, since they have been trying to pry him away from the A’s with varying degrees of intensity for the last two years. Now that the rotation needs even more patching than at any point in the recent past, they will shell out the extra money to remain viable NL contenders, even though that will mean paying way too much money for an innings muncher. Maybe the Mets will win the bidding for Matsuzaka and Zito will end up with one of the other marquee franchises, but I believe that one way or another, the top three players on this list will shuffle between New York, Boston, or Los Angeles.

Prediction: 5 years, $75 million with New York (N)

BONANZA!

Top 10 Free Agents 2006-2007

Major League Baseball awards can only mean one thing: it is now truly the off season. Time to use your game programs for kindling and bust out that ear-marked copy of Total Baseball for another Hot Stove season, an exciting endeavor for any fan of projection and speculation, such as myself. Last year, I attempted to predict where my top 10 free agents would land, and what sort of deal each one would fetch. While I did a pretty solid job up and down the rankings of picking teams and contract lengths, I wildly underestimated how much money teams would shell out for second-tier starting pitchers. Hopefully, I have learned my lesson, and will be able to get even closer to the actual salaries for this year’s free agent class. So, let’s see… Barry Zito is clearly a more productive pitcher than A.J. Burnett, who got close to $60 million in a less bullish market than this one. Does that make Zito worth $80 million over 6 years, or did Burnett charge extra for that shark in his elbow? Regardless of the actual dollar amounts, lots of teams are going to spend way too much money on overrated players because they have money and needs, regardless of whether the available talent fills those needs.

Free Agents Emeritus: Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte- Although neither pitcher is under contract, and both are free to go to any team they choose, I hasten to call either of them “free agents” for two reasons. First, they are not truly “free,” since there is no chance that either of them will sign outside of New York or Houston- or maybe Boston in certain circumstances. I did not include them in my list because I think there is at least a 50% chance that both of them will retire. At very least, I would be surprised to see Clemens return by the start of next season, so I will not include him on my list. Pettitte is on the border as to whether he would be in the top 10 anyway, so the risk of flakiness makes me drop him off the list altogether. If I had to rank them, Pettitte would rank right behind Edmonds, and Clemens would be between Matsuzaka and Schmidt.

10. Jim Edmonds- Given the shortage of up-the-middle talent on the free agent market, Edmonds brings a unique defensive ability to whichever team signs him. Granted, he looked lost in the postseason due to his concussion late in the year, and his bat has deteriorated very quickly for the last two years. As a result, we have to stop thinking of him as “Jim Edmonds, Hall of Fame Centerfielder,” and start thinking of him as “Jim Edmonds, Above-Average Veteran.” The skeptic in me recalls Steve Finley’s situation two years ago, parlaying a big late-season run into a two-year deal where the downside was shrouded by rose-colored glasses. Nonetheless, Edmonds has always been a better player than Finley, and anything close to a full recovery from his injury should mean that his decline phase stays on that level. He has the smarts and just enough moves to keep his head well above water in the field, making the prospect of .260/.350/.450 quite valuable. If an inferior line can earn Torii Hunter $12 million each year, then a two-year commitment to Edmonds balances a high probability of value with an acceptably limited risk of failure. With an already porous and thin outfield, I cannot see the Cardinals sacrificing their postseason momentum; I suspect they will work out a deal to keep him in town.

Prediction: 2 years, $16 million with St. Louis.

9. Barry Bonds- Obviously, Bonds has had the best career of anyone on the list, though that says little of what we can expect over the life of his next deal. His injury history, limited appeal, petulance, and divisiveness drop him down even lower than he would be based on his diminished skill and long-term viability. To me, the main issue revolving around Bonds in this off-season is the role that his status plays in the future of the Giants organization. He draws in the Bay Area, and many believe that he will draw only in the Bay Area, making him uniquely valuable to the Giants and the A’s, who already have their own version of a well-aged, plodding slugger with an enormous injury risk.

Whenever Bonds leaves the Giants, they will launch full-bore into a rebuilding project that will require the rejuvenation of not only the Major League lineup, but the entire farm system, which has been systematically mortgaged for a couple of runs at the pennant with Bonds at the core. The question becomes whether they want to accept that painful fate today or stave it off for a little longer. The high end for a team with Bonds, which was once certain title contention, is probably something closer to making a run at the below-average NL West, but the alternative is to win about 70 games and be out of the race by the All-Star Break. The bigger difference may be in the revenue, as the fan base expects both wins and Bonds, and may settle for nothing less. Even though the Giants’ owner is reportedly ready to move forward with a new approach, I would re-sign Bonds in a heartbeat considering nothing more than his marketability in that part of the country. If the Giants reject him outright, he will probably face a choice between the Angels and a group of overpriced non-contenders who mistakenly think they are a move away from winning. Also, do not rule out the Diamondbacks, who have been bold and creative under the management of Josh Byrnes, et al.

Prediction: 1 year, $15 million with San Francisco

8. Mike Mussina- Technically, Moose is a free agent since the Yankees chose not to exercise his 1-year, $17 million option that would have capped off a contract signed back in the flush years of the A-Rod and Manny deals. That said, the Yankees almost certainly will try to get him back at a reduced rate, even if that means committing to him through the next two high-risk seasons. Mussina has shown a proclivity for nagging injuries over the last couple of years, but he has had an encouraging level of consistency and success over the full seasons considering that level of adversity.

A writer from Fox Sports mentioned that Torre and Cashman will collectively do their best to crowd the rotation in the off-season, pursuing three names that will show up higher on the list- Zito, Schmidt, Matsuzaka- to go with big commitments for Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, and Carl Pavano, not to mention Chien-Ming Wang at the top of the rotation. Taking the imminent arrival of Philip Hughes into account, the Yankees have a fairly talented, though injury prone rotation on the books for next season (honestly, Jaret Wright is fine as a number 5, just a little overpriced, and this team does not mind paying).

The other side of the coin is that the Yankees rotation, while nearly full on paper, simply has not been very good in their most recent Championship drought, and the front office would do well to realize that the difference between $200 million and $230 million could mean the difference between contending for a ring and starting suboptimal pitchers in big games. Maybe Wright and Pavano would be better off in the bullpen to help preserve their health. Maybe Hughes would best be used as a swingman while he passes through the high-risk period in his early 20s. Maybe Randy Johnson is a half-season from becoming the most intimidating lefty-specialist of all time. As long as the Yankees focus on winning championships, pitching depth will be a friend, not an enemy. Wang-Johnson-Pavano-Wright-Hughes, or Zito-Wang-Mussina-Johnson-Pavano? I will take the latter each day of the week and twice on Sunday, even if it cuts into the team’s enormous profits a little. Plus, they have to take into account the consideration that they Mets will be circling like vultures, praying that negotiations break down, and the Phillies will be close on their heels, both with ample money to spend.

Prediction: 2 years, $25 million with New York (A)

7. Tom Glavine- Quite a reversal of fortunes, going from forced retirement to the playoff success to marquee free agent over a couple of months. Inevitably, everyone wants to see Glavine go back to Atlanta because it makes for good copy to see him pursue win #300 in the same place where he got the first 200+. Moreover, Glavine is a genuinely likable player, seemingly a good guy who gets by on guts and smarts. Those who do not like him probably feel that way due to lingering resentment against the dominance of the ‘90s Braves rather than any intrinsic element of his personality on the field. Still, does it make sense for a team who finished well out of contention to spend big money on a player who cannot come close to getting them back in the division race? I think the Braves could only sign Glavine if they think of him as a marketing draw, and the answer to that is well beyond my data.

The team that most needs every pitcher they can get in order to stay in contention is the Mets, whose pitching is completely in shambles. Last winter and spring, analysts panned Omar Minaya for giving up Jae Seo and Kris Benson for nickels on the dime. As the season wore on, Pedro Martinez and Glavine predictably broke down, not to mention in-season patch-job El Duque missing time late in the year. The fact is that a dominant offense featuring Wright, Reyes, and Beltran will not be nearly enough to make up for a rotation of Steve Traschel, Brian Bannister, John Maine, and the completely uncertain future of Victor Zambrano. They do not even have the bullpen to compensate, as Roberto Hernandez and Guillermo Mota go from postseason heroes to a puff of smoke. Even Aaron Heilman’s future is uncertain, as he is needed in two places at once, and probably will not be a very good starter if he is also the team’s primary setup man. In other words, the Mets need Glavine, and they cannot stop there. Expect to see them on the short list of teams for each major free agent starter, nabbing at least one in addition to keeping their own guys around.

Prediction: 2 years, $24 million with New York (N)

6. Carlos Lee- Remember, runs are runs, and a half run per game does pretty much the same thing to your W-L record as shaving a half run off the runs allowed column. With that said, Lee may be one of the greatest values near the top of the free agent market, since nearly every team wants starting pitching, but only a few are seeking corner bats. There is something to be said for chaining- the effect of being able to make your fourth starter your fifth when you add a new top-of-the-rotation stud- and the related true replacement level. Think of it in the context of the Yankees rotation, which I cited earlier: signing Barry Zito as an ace would not take playing time away from otherwise ace Chien-Ming Wang, but from Jaret Wright, a sizeable upgrade. Since the playing-time distribution for position players does not work based on a rotation, signing Lee would fill in directly for the previous leftfielder. At first, it might seem like that fact works as a disadvantage, since outfielders and first basemen seem readily available, and that may even be true in several situations. In this case, however, I believe that teams will pursue starting pitchers so hard that the marginal gain from a new starter over the average replacement level would not compensate for the added price, especially considering the risk of breakdown over the life of a pitcher’s contract.

Take, for example, the Baltimore Orioles, who figure to be major players for Lee. The Orioles need starting pitching as much as or more than other teams, returning a rotation of perpetually disappointing prospects and journeymen with their tanks on empty. The Orioles also employed Jay Gibbons, Kevin Millar, Jeff Conine, and Javy Lopez in major roles at DH or on the corners. Going into next year, Nick Markakis is the only one out of those positions who figures to be worth more than about 20 runs above the theoretical replacement level. Say the Orioles have to choose where to allocate their money between five-year deals for Lee or, say, Barry Zito. Zito and Lee will command similar amounts of money over similarly lengthy contracts, although Zito may require an extra year when accounting for the Boras factor.

Zito will bump the Orioles fifth starter out of the rotation, and a reasonably optimistic scenario would see him average 35-40 runs above replacement rather than the decidedly replacement-level starters they have had in that role in recent years. Lee would offer a similar upside, if not 5-10 runs higher, and would replace a similarly deficient incumbent, if not slightly better than the replaced pitcher. In other words, Lee and a top-level pitcher will probably give the team as much traction toward wins. While chaining means that pitchers could theoretically be worth more for the average team, it also drives up the demand since every team has to employ not one, but five to six starting pitchers. The market for bats on the corners is much more limited, meaning that teams bidding for Lee will only have to compete with five or six other teams, who have the option of going after Bonds, Soriano, Carlos Delgado, Mark Teixeira, or Manny Ramirez as well. Teams seeking an ace starter are limited to Zito, Matsuzaka, Schmidt, and maybe Dontrelle Willis, and there are at least ten teams in the market.

With that said, some of the teams who need the corner bats may not reap the full reward of having them. The Orioles, Cubs, and Braves could use those players, but would be paying truckloads of money for players who cannot get them close to the postseason sweepstakes. While I believe in the argument I have made above, I will listen to the reasoning that says the need for such a player is endemic to a team that needs a lot of help across the roster. Corner talent is abundant, and it is possible that these teams need those bats because they have mismanaged their teams in general, not because they have done a good job elsewhere while missing one little aspect. Still, considering that big-time contenders like the Twins, Tigers, and A’s also need exactly those types of players makes me think that teams can succeed without first pursuing old-player skills. Oddly enough, the Twins and Tigers would look much shinier with Lee, but the Cubs and Orioles are the teams who have generated the most hype about signing him.

Prediction: 5 years, $75 million with Baltimore

Back with more later in the week.

Heir to the Thrown

Joe Mauer is the new Derek Jeter. Ugh. I want to slap myself in the face for saying it, but I cannot help but see some strong similarities between the two pretty-poster-boy franchise players. Sure, Jeter has been more of a media magnet, centered in a far more PR friendly locale where sportswriters do not have to wear parkas to playoff games, and his supporting cast is more prima donna than piranha (imagine the possible conversation topics for Gary Sheffield and Lew Ford). Where Jeter has flaunted Mariah Carey and a Gatorade endorsement deal, Joe sticks to identifying with sideburns and a “hitting aid” that looks like some duct-taped PVC piping that his dad put in a Zip Lock baggie and stapled to his baseball card. Still, while the differences in the careers of Mauer and Jeter are easy to articulate, the pervasive similarities describe the essences of the two as ballplayers and as personalities. Consider the following:

-On the field, Mauer and Jeter provide value by hitting for a high average and doing lots of “little things” at a premium defensive position. As left fielders, no one would be terribly excited about a .900 OPS, but Mauer and Jeter have already fast-tracked to the Hall of Fame, barring the big IFS of health, consistency, and opportunity. Statistically, Mauer is currently most similar to players like Brian McCann and Benito Santiago, catchers who hit and fielded well from a very young age. Jeter’s comparable list includes Roberto Alomar, Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and other balanced middle infielders. Nonetheless, scouts will tell you that Jeter and Mauer are unique players, probably a little more enduring than some of the other stars on those lists because of their pure strokes and other intangibles that defy explanation by me or by anyone else. Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, and Cal Ripken all had that transcendent quality that made them consistently more productive than their statistical profiles would indicate. Maybe they were all such good guys that teammates did what they had to do to support them. Maybe the media wrote enough puff pieces to buffer them from the pessimism that drags down some players (A-Rod?). Maybe they never really were better than anyone else, but got so much positive attention that even analysts start to think that they are better than they really are.

In any case, Jeter was anointed very early in his career, so much so that he has won three straight Gold Gloves as a statistically average (or worse) shortstop, and the worst criticism he gets from mainstream writers is that he does not stick up for his struggling teammates enough against the wishes of his grudge-bearing manager. Mauer’s midseason run at .400 garnered him his first wave of hero worship, including a Sports Illustrated feature, plenty of ESPN highlights, and more than a few MVP votes on a team loaded with viable candidates. As a Twins fan, I just hope that Mauer does not fall into Jeter’s bad habit of sacrificing his good bat for the sake of his selfless reputation.

-Mauer and Jeter quintessentially represent their teams, cities, and sport like hybrid matinee idols/role models. Ok, so Jeter is from Kalamazoo, Michigan, which is at least marginally different from the Bronx, which brings me to a theory I developed about New York. In Martin Scorsese’s Bob Dylan documentary No Direction Home, some anonymous biographer/historian- we’ll call him Mr. Jones- referred to Dylan as the “quintessential New Yorker” in the early ‘60s. At the time, Dylan was a year or two removed from living on the Iron Range in Northern Minnesota, but Mr. Jones was right. New York is such a hub for rapidly changing fashion, culture, and self-image that someone coming from the inside could never originate that kind of change. Maybe someone on the margins (social, not geographic) of New York could ascend to that messianic position, hence all of the deified rappers who truly represent their society. In general, though, outsiders work with a blank(er) slate.

In the same way that Dylan was able to revolutionize music and culture by bringing an unknown identity to the forefront of the cultural epicenter, Jeter has forged a new mold for the quintessential New York athlete. Unlike Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Willis Reed, Joe Namath, Lawrence Taylor, and Don Mattingly before him, Jeter is more pretty boy than hyper-masculine. Look at the difference between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, or between Shaq and Kobe, or between the list of New York stars and Jeter- the second element on each list is not afraid to dress well, to show of his matinee idol looks, or even to pose for GQ. While sports fans never accepted that sort of androgyny from their captains in the past, the new generation is actually viewed as uniquely tough. Mauer, too, seems to be joining this list of players who are marketable for their looks as much as their abilities.

As a side note, this point reminds me of an episode of Law and Order where the detectives investigated the Yankees star shortstop for murder. As it turned out, the shortstop was a native North Dakotan- like me- who had killed his friend in a fit of steroid-induced rage and panic at the risk of being exposed as a juicer. In the end, Hammer of God™ Jack McCoy (Sam Waterston) laid the smackdown on bizarro Jeter, sending him up the river for a long time. Setting aside the NoDak angle, it was a gleeful romp from beginning to end, and I keep hoping that one of the Law and Order writers had a tip from someone in the Yankees organization.

-The comparison is particularly apt today, as Mauer just completed his version of Jeter’s breakout 1999 season.

Jeter, 1999: .349/.438/.552, 134 R, 70 XBH, 102 RBI, 19/27 SB, .337 EQA, 11.1 WARP3, 25 years old

Mauer, 2006: .347/.429/.507, 86 R, 54 XBH, 84 RBI, 8/11 SB, .328 EQA, 10.6 WARP3, 23 years old

Even though shortstop is a difficult defensive position, Mauer playing catcher makes any comparison of counting stats a bit cumbersome, considering the extra days off and slow grind any catcher experiences over the course of the year. Plus, Jeter’s supporting cast in 1999 was one of the better ones you will ever see, including a prime Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez, and many others. While this year’s Minnesota lineup was better than others in recent memory, it pales in comparison to Jeter’s compatriots. Nonetheless, putting the rate stats side-by-side bears out the resemblance pretty clearly. Jeter was a half-win better overall, and had miniscule advantages across the board. The WARP total accounts for the difficulty of playing catcher, but not the necessary rest, while the other rate stats have the opposite problem, so they are basically on par with one another. Altogether, Jeter’s continued prominence sheds a bright light on Mauer’s future.

Twins fans, Mauer fans, and baseball fans in general must keep in mind two concerns about Mauer’s future. The first is the possibility that Mauer recognizes the similarity between his career arc and Jeter’s, and decides to capitalize on the additional marketability of playing with a major market club. As a homegrown talent, Mauer is undoubtedly the face and the future of the team, much the same way that Jeter has been with the Yankees for the last decade, but Bombers fans never had to worry about their man bolting for greener pastures. The second concern goes back to the reason we have to give Mauer’s stats that little extra attention- the fact that he is a catcher. Catchers wear down over the course of a season because the position is so physically debilitating, and the effect is even stronger from season to season. While the skill might be present, Mauer is unlikely to post Jeter-esque numbers for the entirety of the next decade if he has to play it out from a squat. I would favor immediately starting to develop his replacement, and trying to get him to third base by 2009 or 2010 in order to maximize both his value and his longevity. It may be the only way he can really be like Jeter (wince).