Heir to the Thrown

Joe Mauer is the new Derek Jeter. Ugh. I want to slap myself in the face for saying it, but I cannot help but see some strong similarities between the two pretty-poster-boy franchise players. Sure, Jeter has been more of a media magnet, centered in a far more PR friendly locale where sportswriters do not have to wear parkas to playoff games, and his supporting cast is more prima donna than piranha (imagine the possible conversation topics for Gary Sheffield and Lew Ford). Where Jeter has flaunted Mariah Carey and a Gatorade endorsement deal, Joe sticks to identifying with sideburns and a “hitting aid” that looks like some duct-taped PVC piping that his dad put in a Zip Lock baggie and stapled to his baseball card. Still, while the differences in the careers of Mauer and Jeter are easy to articulate, the pervasive similarities describe the essences of the two as ballplayers and as personalities. Consider the following:

-On the field, Mauer and Jeter provide value by hitting for a high average and doing lots of “little things” at a premium defensive position. As left fielders, no one would be terribly excited about a .900 OPS, but Mauer and Jeter have already fast-tracked to the Hall of Fame, barring the big IFS of health, consistency, and opportunity. Statistically, Mauer is currently most similar to players like Brian McCann and Benito Santiago, catchers who hit and fielded well from a very young age. Jeter’s comparable list includes Roberto Alomar, Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and other balanced middle infielders. Nonetheless, scouts will tell you that Jeter and Mauer are unique players, probably a little more enduring than some of the other stars on those lists because of their pure strokes and other intangibles that defy explanation by me or by anyone else. Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, and Cal Ripken all had that transcendent quality that made them consistently more productive than their statistical profiles would indicate. Maybe they were all such good guys that teammates did what they had to do to support them. Maybe the media wrote enough puff pieces to buffer them from the pessimism that drags down some players (A-Rod?). Maybe they never really were better than anyone else, but got so much positive attention that even analysts start to think that they are better than they really are.

In any case, Jeter was anointed very early in his career, so much so that he has won three straight Gold Gloves as a statistically average (or worse) shortstop, and the worst criticism he gets from mainstream writers is that he does not stick up for his struggling teammates enough against the wishes of his grudge-bearing manager. Mauer’s midseason run at .400 garnered him his first wave of hero worship, including a Sports Illustrated feature, plenty of ESPN highlights, and more than a few MVP votes on a team loaded with viable candidates. As a Twins fan, I just hope that Mauer does not fall into Jeter’s bad habit of sacrificing his good bat for the sake of his selfless reputation.

-Mauer and Jeter quintessentially represent their teams, cities, and sport like hybrid matinee idols/role models. Ok, so Jeter is from Kalamazoo, Michigan, which is at least marginally different from the Bronx, which brings me to a theory I developed about New York. In Martin Scorsese’s Bob Dylan documentary No Direction Home, some anonymous biographer/historian- we’ll call him Mr. Jones- referred to Dylan as the “quintessential New Yorker” in the early ‘60s. At the time, Dylan was a year or two removed from living on the Iron Range in Northern Minnesota, but Mr. Jones was right. New York is such a hub for rapidly changing fashion, culture, and self-image that someone coming from the inside could never originate that kind of change. Maybe someone on the margins (social, not geographic) of New York could ascend to that messianic position, hence all of the deified rappers who truly represent their society. In general, though, outsiders work with a blank(er) slate.

In the same way that Dylan was able to revolutionize music and culture by bringing an unknown identity to the forefront of the cultural epicenter, Jeter has forged a new mold for the quintessential New York athlete. Unlike Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Willis Reed, Joe Namath, Lawrence Taylor, and Don Mattingly before him, Jeter is more pretty boy than hyper-masculine. Look at the difference between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, or between Shaq and Kobe, or between the list of New York stars and Jeter- the second element on each list is not afraid to dress well, to show of his matinee idol looks, or even to pose for GQ. While sports fans never accepted that sort of androgyny from their captains in the past, the new generation is actually viewed as uniquely tough. Mauer, too, seems to be joining this list of players who are marketable for their looks as much as their abilities.

As a side note, this point reminds me of an episode of Law and Order where the detectives investigated the Yankees star shortstop for murder. As it turned out, the shortstop was a native North Dakotan- like me- who had killed his friend in a fit of steroid-induced rage and panic at the risk of being exposed as a juicer. In the end, Hammer of God™ Jack McCoy (Sam Waterston) laid the smackdown on bizarro Jeter, sending him up the river for a long time. Setting aside the NoDak angle, it was a gleeful romp from beginning to end, and I keep hoping that one of the Law and Order writers had a tip from someone in the Yankees organization.

-The comparison is particularly apt today, as Mauer just completed his version of Jeter’s breakout 1999 season.

Jeter, 1999: .349/.438/.552, 134 R, 70 XBH, 102 RBI, 19/27 SB, .337 EQA, 11.1 WARP3, 25 years old

Mauer, 2006: .347/.429/.507, 86 R, 54 XBH, 84 RBI, 8/11 SB, .328 EQA, 10.6 WARP3, 23 years old

Even though shortstop is a difficult defensive position, Mauer playing catcher makes any comparison of counting stats a bit cumbersome, considering the extra days off and slow grind any catcher experiences over the course of the year. Plus, Jeter’s supporting cast in 1999 was one of the better ones you will ever see, including a prime Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez, and many others. While this year’s Minnesota lineup was better than others in recent memory, it pales in comparison to Jeter’s compatriots. Nonetheless, putting the rate stats side-by-side bears out the resemblance pretty clearly. Jeter was a half-win better overall, and had miniscule advantages across the board. The WARP total accounts for the difficulty of playing catcher, but not the necessary rest, while the other rate stats have the opposite problem, so they are basically on par with one another. Altogether, Jeter’s continued prominence sheds a bright light on Mauer’s future.

Twins fans, Mauer fans, and baseball fans in general must keep in mind two concerns about Mauer’s future. The first is the possibility that Mauer recognizes the similarity between his career arc and Jeter’s, and decides to capitalize on the additional marketability of playing with a major market club. As a homegrown talent, Mauer is undoubtedly the face and the future of the team, much the same way that Jeter has been with the Yankees for the last decade, but Bombers fans never had to worry about their man bolting for greener pastures. The second concern goes back to the reason we have to give Mauer’s stats that little extra attention- the fact that he is a catcher. Catchers wear down over the course of a season because the position is so physically debilitating, and the effect is even stronger from season to season. While the skill might be present, Mauer is unlikely to post Jeter-esque numbers for the entirety of the next decade if he has to play it out from a squat. I would favor immediately starting to develop his replacement, and trying to get him to third base by 2009 or 2010 in order to maximize both his value and his longevity. It may be the only way he can really be like Jeter (wince).