Mixed Emotions

This is what it all comes down to: the Twins are really good right now. After their terrible start, they need to win 4 of their last 7 to secure the franchise’s best record since a 98-64 campaign in 1970. To get there, they have had to play the majority of the season at better than a .600 clip, spending the second half as hot as Detroit did the first. As the record indicates, this team is almost certainly stronger than the ones that won division titles from 2002-2004, with a much more complete offense, fewer holes on the roster, and a roster construction that reflects a more balanced organizational philosophy between run scoring and prevention.

However, there are two problems. First, this exceptional team is missing its second and third best pitchers, and if you believe in chaining- and it is hard not to believe in chaining- you see that the impact of losing two starters at the same time is much worse than losing one at a time for two separate times. Dropping two starters necessitates more playing time from not only the 6^th, but also the 7^th starting pitcher. This effect can be seen in the poor starts from Matt Guerrier and Scott Baker making every fifth day more difficult for the Twins. Even with quite a bit of pitching depth at the start of the year, losing three of their top six options from the start of the season- including Lohse- puts an incredible amount of stress on the system, no matter how efficient it is at churning out starting pitchers. And even if the team’s record does not look much worse, the extra strain on the bullpen will show up sooner or later- Reyes, Rincon, Neshek, Perkins, and Nathan were all used at least twice in last weekend’s Baltimore series.

Now, the playoffs present an interesting difference since they will no longer require a fifth starter. It would clearly be a preferable situation of one of their two missing pieces was a fifth starter whose role would be marginalized anyway, but since they have to promote the four, five, and six starters (likely Silva, Bonser, and Garza) into more meaningful jobs, the postseason provides no comparative advantage. Whether the effect of losing the 2-3 starters is more meaningful in the regular season or the playoffs probably depends on how much one values postseason success relative to regular season success, and those values are pretty subjective. The more pressing question is how the available starters will be used after Johan, a topic on which I will touch later.

Even compensating for the injuries, the Twins are probably the third best team in the major leagues, behind the Yankees and Mets if you want to evaluate momentum and roster construction going into the postseason, or behind the Yankees and Tigers if season-long performance is more important. The second major problem for the Twins, though, is that their early swoon puts them in a position to play the one team that is clearly better in the first round of the playoffs. The Yankee super-lineup is one of the best of all time, and even a diminished Randy Johnson makes for a solid 3^rd starter in the playoffs behind a strong 1-2 combination of Mussina and Wang. With Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth, and others setting up for the hammer of God, the bullpen is a strength, leaving only a suspect defense as the team’s weak link. From Gardenhire’s position, there are a few strategic tools that I would engage to maximize the team’s chances of winning the short series:

1) If possible, start Silva opposite Wang at Yankee Stadium. If Mussina goes opposite Santana in Game 1, Silva should be the obvious choice over Bonser, if only due to the park effects. The Yankees supposedly go to great lengths to make sure conditions are optimal for Wang’s sinker at the Stadium, including longer infield grass and lots of wet dirt in the infield and the batter’s box, and his 2.88 home ERA against a 4.35 road number supports that theory. Of course, Silva would have to be getting groundballs for the field conditions to matter, which has not been a given in the recent past.

2) Dance with the lady that brung ya. The patience of the Yankee lineup is legendary, and a huge strength in a postseason series that puts stress on the bullpen. On the other hand, the Twins pitching staff has a good deal of control over that part of the game, and they need to come out throwing strikes, no matter how good the lineup may be. Hard as it may be to go after Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Giambi, A-Rod, Posada, etc all back-to-back, they are all going to bat, and it is easier to do it without putting runners on for free, and with the best pitchers on the mound.

3) Maintain an aggressive approach at the plate. This suggestion may seem counterintuitive, since wearing out the Yankee bullpen seems reasonable given Torre’s penchant for overuse. Contrarily, the Twins offensive strength is in getting lots of hits. Mauer, Punto, and Castillo will see plenty of pitches, but if Hunter, Cuddyer, and Morneau change their approach to fit the playoffs, they will probably do more harm than good.

In conclusion, the Twins face a couple of big challenges nearing the end of the 2006 season, despite the terrific year leading up to this moment. As the Twins learned in 2003 and 2004, facing the Yankees in the playoffs is never easy, and doing so without two of the team’s top three starting pitchers is even more challenging. But with some short-series luck and a commitment to the strategies and tactics that make this team successful, they could have even more good times on the horizon.