Sizing Up the Competition

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Taking that maxim to be true, the Twins count both the White Sox and Tigers as enemies and friends, and time-space grasps tenuously to regain its logical ordering of the universe. Think about the possibilities for a minute and we will move on. Ready? Ok. After game one of another big Chicago-Detroit series, the Tigers look to be in some sort of control of the division, extending their lead to 6.5 games over the Pale Hoes and 7 over the Twins. To put that deficit into perspective, with a little over a month to go, Detroit has the same lead in the division as the Yankees, who have already bought the champagne and started counting down their magic number after this most recent Boston Massacre. The difference, of course, is that great intangible that we call momentum. Whereas the Yankees can revel in their own glory and probably take the division with .500 ball the rest of the way, the Tigers have struggled recently, dropping three of four against Texas over the weekend and playing dust to Chicago’s broom the weekend before. Chicago and Minnesota, on the other hand, have been riding high despite shortcomings, and continue to push hard for the last playoff spot. Ultimately, Boston’s demise (which may or may not have already happened- there is a lot of baseball to play, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re done for the purpose of this investigation) leaves the Twins with the charge of finishing ahead of either Detroit or Chicago, and while they have less ground to cover in chasing Chicago, Detroit has recently looked like the decidedly weaker team.

Statistically, the Twins are already in a favorable position, according to Baseball Prospectus’s Adjusted Standings, which goes beyond the simple Pythagorean adjustments to account for individual player contributions and the results that they should yield. According to that adjustment, the Twins should be 70-53, a full two games ahead of the White Sox, at 68-55. Detroit maintains their lead, though by a smaller margin, at 74-50, putting the Twins a reachable 3.5 games behind the division lead. All three teams have outperformed their run differentials and component stats, not an unusual feat for a team with a winning record. The Tigers and White Sox, though, are both 4.7 wins ahead of their projected pace, while the Twins performance leaves only 2.2 wins up to unexplained variance. The meaning of that difference is that the Twins true performance has been closer to their record than that of either Detroit or Chicago, a reality which hints at progress to come. Minnesota has been able to make up that ground by playing at an increasingly high level. As I noted recently, the run differential may not look particularly striking, but the differential for this iteration of the Twins- the one that does not include Tony Batista, Juan Castro, or Rondell White’s corpse- has overcome a profoundly negative differential to become competitive with the other teams in the division over an abbreviated season. In other words, the Twins may only be even with Chicago now, but the lineup including Bartlett, Punto, etc, has been significantly better in the standings and in terms of runs since it became the everyday lineup. The implications for the playoffs are that the Twins have finally passed Chicago in terms of overall probability of making the playoffs, 47.1%-45.5%. Those numbers and that miniscule difference mean very little practically, but they reflect the Twins’ growing momentum as they continue beating good teams. Interestingly, the White Sox still maintain a statistical edge in their odds of winning the division crown, and the Twins make up the difference with a greater chance of winning the wild card. Those modestly different odds come from the 1/8 chance (12.5%) that Detroit will indeed tank and lose out on the division title. Even if that is the case, do not rule them out, as their strong season to date gives them a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs in one way or another, better than even the Yankees’ 95.8% chance.

What performance trends make up these differences? The White Sox series over the weekend gave a glimpse into the team’s strengths and weaknesses, highlighting how different they are from last year’s World Champions. The mantra about the pitchers’ diminished effectiveness from putting more balls in play and allowing more homeruns has been beaten to death, so I will leave it alone. The team’s defense is strong enough to rank 8^th in the majors in defensive efficiency, which is no surprise given the personnel and Ozzie’s tendency to play a glove over a bat at nearly any position. The offense is a major force, checking in three runs behind the Yankees at second in the majors, but the prevention side has not held up its end of the bargain. The team’s 601 runs allowed is 111 Detroit’s league-leading pace, ranking them 7^th in the AL- not so shabby, but inconceivable for such a strong pitching-and-defense team. By the way, the fact that a team has a disappointing pitching staff, ranks in the middle of the pack at run prevention, absolutely drops bombs on offense, has a solid chance at 95 wins or more, and is considered a disappointment with a good shot at finishing 3^rd in its division speaks to the tremendous depth of this year’s AL Central. For every time we count ourselves as unlucky for cheering for one of the combatants, we must remember to also count ourselves as lucky for being a part of such a memorable race. I almost hope the Red Sox really are done, just so the media focus appropriately turns to this fantastic division.

The team that has really made the wheels go round in the division has obviously been the surprising Tigers. Some have developed concerns recently, as the team has scuffled through a tough week after losing Placido Polanco, who was among the team leaders in the “intangibles” statistic, to a shoulder separation. In lieu of Polanco, the front office showed that it may not be quite so bulletproof as we all thought by actually giving up something for the burden of having to play Neifi Perez for the rest of this year and all of next. Simultaneously, Justin Verlander lost a couple of starts, and, more importantly, showed noticeable changes in his mechanics, delivery, pitch selection, and stuff as his arm seemed to hit the wall that jumps out at young pitchers adjusting to longer seasons. Verlander is not easily replaceable, not even with Mike Maroth getting closer to coming off of the DL. Then, in one shining moment, everything seemed to turn around on Monday night, with Verlander getting ground balls and working seven effective innings for the Tigers, who finally overcame Jose Contreras and the terrifying White Sox, 7-1. Two bad weeks seemed to wash away, piece by piece, as Craig Monroe hit a 2-run homer, Sean Casey doubled home two more, and Verlander kept plugging along, putting holes in Sock after Sock. Keep in mind that one night does not a season make, and neither does two weeks. The Tigers have been struggling because they have been playing good teams. It appears that they tore a page out of the 2002-2004 Minnesota playbook on how to win the AL Central, through beating the pulp out of the bad teams and treading water against the good ones. So far this year, the Tigers are 36 games over .500 in games against AL teams below .500 and NL teams, and two games under .500 against AL teams with winning records. Of course, they have played a role in making some of those teams into sub-.500 teams, especially Cleveland, who they have clobbered 12-4 in the season series. More relevant is the fact that these numbers explain why the last two weeks seemed so bad: Texas, Chicago, and pre-Chernobyl Boston were very worthy competitors, and losing a majority of the games should not be considered the end of the season. Certainly, there are relevant concerns here for Tigers fans, but let’s look at the bigger picture: this team has been very good for almost 5 months; two bad weeks is not a better indicator of future success.

Finally, not one of the Central competitors has a great advantage in the schedule down the stretch. The teams will take heavy doses of one another for the next month, exactly the way the schedulers wanted it to be down the stretch. The principle vagary here is the fact that nobody expected Detroit’s last two weeks to matter much, so they are stuck playing perpetual also-rans Baltimore, Kansas City, and Toronto (whose situation gets worse and worse with another player-manager fight coming to light today), while the Twins and White Sox duke it out in their high-profile meeting the last weekend of the season. If anyone has the advantage here, it is Detroit, but that is mainly because they got the job down all year and do not face pressure to make up ground against the best teams- they must only continue to keep their heads above water.

Altogether, Detroit still seems like a formidable opponent going into the season’s last month. The Twins shot at the postseason has not been better all year, but the point of entry will probably come at the expense of Chicago rather than Detroit. Losing Verlander would drastically reshape the landscape in the division. Until he stops pitching, though, any such speculation is pretty fruitless. It seems that the division will most likely turn on the complex relationship between Minnesota’s ability to manage injuries and Chicago’s ability to outscore their opponents as a means of overcoming a suboptimal pitching staff. The team that accepts its shortcomings and properly addresses them will be in a better position to make the post-season. Minnesota’s success in recent weeks at cycling retreads and youngsters through the lineup to get the most value possible out of them indicates that they are dealing with their injuries as proactively as possible. Now, the White Sox have to find a way to get out of the doldrums by rallying around their big bats for one more run. That motivational speech is Ozzie’s responsibility, and the ball is now in his court.