Power Rankings
Flags Fly Forever

5. New York Mets- Not surprisingly, lots of analysts say the Mets are the best team in the majors right now, but I have to disagree pretty strongly. They currently have the 8th most third-order wins, trailing a full seven AL teams, hinting at the tremendous disparity in competition. Like the Cardinals, they really do not have to do much to get into the playoffs, so they can already start thinking about the playoffs. With an old and fragile pitching staff, stretching out rest time for Pedro, Glavine and El Duque can only help them the rest of the way, since they can easily make the postseason by playing .500 ball the rest of the way. The offense is a mix of young and old players, but not to the extreme as we see in LA, where everyone seems to be either before or past his prime. In New York, there is a mix of players just coming into their best years- Wright, Reyes, Duaner Sanchez- and those leaving their best years- Delgado, LoDuca, Floyd, Wagner, Martinez, Glavine. Splitting the difference, Carlos Beltran has been the team’s best player with a stunning .606 SLG in one of his best seasons. Looking at players like Delgado and Wagner who have started showing signs of decline shows that Omar Minaya does not have years to waste in trying to bring home a championship with this core of players. He can continue building around Wright, Reyes, and Beltran for several more years, but should take his chances around Pedro, Glavine, Wagner, and Delgado right now. If he can get Barry Zito for Lastings Milledge, he should jump on the opportunity. If Dontrelle Willis is on the market, he should give up whatever the Marlins want out of the what is left of the Mets’ farm system to get him. Even Bobby Abreu and Alfonso Soriano make some sense for this team, and I would say picking up one of those players would help vault them ahead of everyone but the two AL Central powerhouses, which is where they need to be to have a great shot at the title. My one bit of advice for the Mets down the stretch is that flags fly forever, and winning the National League pennant is a fleeting memory if you cannot compete in the World Series. Just as your fans how they feel about the 2000 Subway Series.

4. Boston Red Sox- That does it for the National League, now for the 2002 NBA Western Conference. As much as I like Boston, they have not pulled away from a depleted New York team that stands to become very dangerous when their outfielders come back from the disabled list in the last month or two of the season. One concern here is the rotation. Schilling, Beckett, and Lester should hold down three of the spots for the rest of the season, but that does not solve the other 40% of the games. Ole Rubberarm Tim Wakefield is apparently not made entirely of rubber, now that he has gone to the DL with a broken rib. Filling in for him will be tough with Matt Clement and David Wells still injured themselves, and Lenny Dinardo, David Pauley, and Kyle Snyder all struggling with tremendous ineffectiveness. The depth, healthy or unhealthy, leaves Theo Epstein in a difficult situation leading up to the deadline. The team would certainly be better for now if they gave up a prospect or two for a starter to use down the stretch, but that starter may become expendable once the team gets their top six starters all healthy again. Is it worth it to pay for a replacement starter you will probably not even use in the playoffs? That is a tough question that would require a lot more specific analysis by the very smart Boston front office. The offense is not so confounding, as David Ortiz has bumped his batting average back where it belongs, around .270, joining Manny Ramirez at the top of the team leader board in most categories. Only Jason Varitek and Coco Crisp have been less than satisfying, but they will not go anywhere due to defensive and contractual concerns, so do not expect any big changes down the stretch. Alex Gonzalez has kept his OBP above .300 and his SLG above .400, making him worth his defense, so the possibility of going after Julio Lugo becomes unnecessary. Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Loretta, and Trot Nixon have all been better than expected, and give the Red Sox a chance at returning to glory this year. Maybe the biggest difference between this year and years past is at the back of the bullpen, where Jonathan Papelbon is having a year not terribly unlike Eric Gagne’s 2003, but with fewer strikeouts. He has remarkable control, misses plenty of bats, and does not make mistakes, all combining to keep his ERA well under 1.00. Just like Rivera has slammed the door to so many key playoff games for the Yankees over the years, Papelbon looks like the type of dominant reliever who can go two innings when necessary, bounce back on short rest, and scare the pants off of any opposing batter. The Red Sox have yet to lock up a playoff spot as the top of the AL grows closer together, though they remain a tremendously formidable opponent for any team who crosses them.

3. New York Yankees- The Yankees have been merely good, but not exceptional, with their roving band of rejects filling in the gaps behind what is left of the star-studded starting lineup. That they already have the most third order wins in the majors with so much money and talent on the DL or massively underperforming speaks to how terrfying this team could become. Jeter, Giambi, Posada, Damon, and A-Rod have all been very good, if the very best they could be, though Melky Cabrera, Miguel Cairo, Andy Phillips, Terrence Long, and Bubba Crosby have all failed provide even acceptable reinforcements when the old lineup shows its frailty. Getting Sheffield and Matsui back makes the league’s third best offense into one big wrecking-ball that will score enough runs to make any pitcher look good. And their staff is not chopped liver. They finally went back to going with what works rather than whomever has the biggest name. Chien-Ming Wang has had a very good year by never giving up homeruns to go with a resurgence from Mike Mussina in terms of strikeouts and limiting walks. Randy Johnson has looked better and better, starting to get his mechanics back into order and striking out batters as one might expect him to do. Even Jaret Wright has looked more like a major league pitcher lately, limiting homeruns, but giving up too many balls in play for the below-average defense that plays behind him. Mariano Rivera continues cementing his status as the best relief pitcher of all time, but they could stand to add one more good reliever or good starter down the stretch to cement the staff. Altogether, it might not matter how well they pitch for the rest of the regular season. The task is to get into the playoffs, and they have better players coming to them in August than any other team, and they get them for free.

2. Chicago White Sox- I have had some uncertainty about the top two spots. On one hand, the White Sox seem like a much safer bet than the Tigers, having performed at a high level for almost two full seasons rather than just a part of one. On the other hand, the Sox won last year without the requisite experience and generalizable data, and the Tigers have mimicked their pitching and defense mantra. Additionally, the Sox are not even a guarantee to make it into the playoffs this year. Here is what I think the Sox have going for them: the players on the team are performing well, but not as well as they could possibly perform, leaving some room for growth down the stretch. Specifically, I am referring to the malaise that has come over a good portion of the pitching staff, with Mark Buerhle, Freddy Garcia, and Javier Vazquez all going through the doldrums for a good chunk of the season. All are good pitchers who have had success recently and through their careers, and all are pitching in front of what is still an above average defense (6th in the bigs in defensive efficiency). Only Contreras has a BABIP below .290, and Vazquez has had the most notable difficulty at .321. If the defense comes back to their overall level of performance for these guys, their low strikeout rates will not look so damaging. On the offensive end, Thome, Dye, Konerko, and Crede have been good enough to carry the team to the top of the run scored heap in the AL while getting zilch out of the defensive-minded Brian Anderson in CF. If he produces anything (really, anything) the rest of the way, it will make a big difference for the offense. If Scott Podsednik nudges his OBP up just a little above .350, he will be much more valuable. And the deeper bench than they had last year that has kept the lineup fresh all year will start to pay greater dividends down the stretch. Additionally, Kenny Williams is a GM with panache. A week ago, I alluded to the fact that he would probably somehow get involved in the Bobby Abreu running since he was the biggest name on the market. Instead, it is Soriano who has drawn Williams’s attention, and rightfully so. As I mentioned earlier, Podsednik is one of the team’s few offensive weaknesses, and even considering the defensive drop off, adding Soriano creates lots of runs and gives the team a chance to win more games. With an already old-ish core and a lot of money tied up in the next few years, it should be a no-brainer to go for the back-to-back titles. Since the playoffs are not a guarantee, the Sox need to become lead-footed while they can to make the best team they can make. The Yankees have won a lot of titles, and it was not the attitude that Brandon McCarthy might make a good third starter in a year or two that got them there, because in the long run, we’re all dead. Or at least Jim Thome will not be as effective.

1. Detroit Tigers- For most of the season, I have avoided making any sort of judgment on the Tigers. At first, it seemed like a nice story that a team on the upswing could taste success before their real ETA of 2007 or 2008. Then, it seemed like a nuisance for the Twins to get mowed down by a divisional buzz saw while they were working out their own roster issues. Eventually, it became the sort of nagging sore that makes you want to pick at it in hopes that it will go away, but, obviously, that will only make it worse. Dave Dombrowski can say what he will about talent evaluation, but even he knows that this year’s Tigers team was not built to win 100, or even 90, games. This was yet another transition year, on the way to divisional dominance two or three years down the road. Verlander, Zumaya, and Bonderman were not supposed to all crest at the same time, and the older parts of the offense were not supposed to all stay this healthy and this productive. In one sense, they have experienced the perfect storm. In another, they are left with the dilemma of what to do with the long term plan now that stopgaps like Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers have coincided with success- not caused it. Do they go with more veterans around Guillen, Ordonez, and Pudge for the next couple of years, or continue with the plan to develop Cameron Maybin, Humberto Sanchez, and their other, more talented and long-lasting farmhands? It is a legitimate question, albeit one that skirts the issue of the 2006 Detroit Tigers, once again. So here’s what I got. This level of offensive production seems unsustainable- only 19 runs behind 2nd place New York. Guillen, Ordonez, and Pudge have all had seasons this good in the past, but nobody expected any one of them to experience a reentry to that level this season with so much durability, much less all at the same time. Curtis Granderson has been exceptional, and his success should not be a surprise since it matches up with minor league statistics and most projection metrics. Marcus Thames, on the other hand, is slugging a ridiculous .605- an number which does not make sense in any sort of platoon arrangement. Factor in Chris Shelton’s hot start and cold continuance and that is the gist of the Tigers’ offensive contribution. So many things could go wrong, and the fact that none have is a testament to the training staff, to Jim Leyland, to the players themselves, to Magglio’s weird Austrian knee surgeon, and to whichever deity has looked over the clubhouse all year. As the deadline approaches, the holes in the lineup known as Brandon Inge, Placido Polanco, Dmitri Young, and Craig Monroe could easily be replaced, although the Tigers seem less and less involved as trade rumors circulate. If any team could use one more bat to offset attrition, this is that team, unless they have chosen to stay the course with their younger players and try to make a run of domination through the end of the decade- not an unreasonable proposal. The pitching success should come as less of a surprise, because the breakthrough was more of an eventuality than a potentiality. Robertson and Rogers- ok, that may be some “unexplained variance,” but even if they were half as valuable as they have been, the team would still lead the division and stand out as one of the best run prevention units in the AL. Verlander and Bonderman broke through at just the right time, combining filthy stuff with good control and a penchant for playing to a tremendous defense. Miner and Maroth have combined to make up one ambidextrous, soft-balling, fifth starter who puts plenty of balls in play, but benefits from that same defensive unit. If there is one obvious minor move the team could make, it would be adding a middle reliever and bumping Todd Jones out of high leverage situations. Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya (of the 10+ K/9) would be better suited to finish games than the mustachioed one, though Zumaya’s BB totals might create a little more cardiac stress than their elderly skipper can handle. Altogether, Detroit has been very, very good this season, and as much as I want to dismiss their success as a confluence of good health, career years, and fortunate bounces, they have already demonstrated that they are better than that. And even though my gut tells me the Yankees or White Sox are a smarter bet in the post-season, the data clearly indicate that the Tigers are the top of the pile until somebody proves otherwise.