Power Rankings
Starting to Matter

Ninety Percent of Winning is Just Showing Up

14. Houston Astros- I originally ranked the Astros quite a bit higher, but taking a good look at the components of the offense would make anyone feel a little worse about Houston’s playoff chances. Going to the World Series makes everyone seem better than they really are, from scrubs who look like valuable situational players to regulars who seem like stars, just from the exposure. Houston’s roster is full of guys whose reputation, for whatever reason, far exceeds his actual ability. Preston Wilson spent years mashing homers in Coors, which gave him the sheen of a legitimate power hitter, even though he is more like a replacement level outfielder (currently 0.0 VORP). Aubrey Huff’s name circulated through so many rumor mills over the last three years that it seemed like he must have something left in the tank, but he is pretty pedestrian in all respects other than his below-average defense. In fact, everyone on the offense other than Lance Berkman is probably a little bit overrated for one reason or another, making the team look a lot better than it is. The pitching equation still revolves around Clemens, Oswalt, and Pettitte. Clemens has been good since his return, but not Roger-Freakin’-Clemens, which may or may not continue through the season. Oswalt has gutted out a terrific season, but has already missed a few starts, and continues to pitch through pain that could worsen. Pettitte has remained healthy, but arguably to the detriment of the team in one of his worst seasons of all time. Maybe this team has it in them to make another crazy run down the stretch, but right now the playoffs look like a dream than the light at the end of the tunnel.

13. Los Angeles (Anaheim) Angels- The Angels very rarely make trades. Bill Stoneman has become almost notorious for his commitment to his own players, possibly to a fault. This season marks yet another opportunity for the Angels to distinguish themselves from the pack, but they made need some outside reinforcements to do so. The offense has been performing at a higher level than many expected (455 runs, 10th in the league, but not so terribly crippling as many forecast) and has received help from a starting rotation that is solid one through five. The problem is that all of the room for growth will likely be offset by natural regression by other players unless they add a legitimate first baseman. Adding Howie Kendrick to the lineup at second base will help the offense, putting a legitimate bat in place of Twin-killer Adam Kennedy. On the other hand, Orlando Cabrera and Mike Napoli are both above their 90th percentile PECOTA EQA projections, and Juan Rivera is around the 80th percentile. True breakouts, or signs of regression to come? Napoli may be better than anticipated, but not a .405 OBP, .553 SLG guy. Rivera, too, will likely see his .541 SLG dip substantially as the season goes along, and Cabrera has played the role of the archetypal solid veteran having a great half before returning to his mortal coil. Kendrick can hardly be expected to make up the difference for all of these players, even if Napoli gets a greater share of offensive black-hole Jose Molina’s playing time. Having Kendry Morales and Casey Kotchman combine to cost the team almost two wins at a premium offensive position is unacceptable. Supposedly the team was in on the Shea Hillenbrand sweepstakes, which shows commitment. The next step should be to proactively search out other players who have not alienated their own teams to the point of being released, like Craig Wilson or Jeff Conine. Neither player would do for them offensively what Carlos Beltran did for the Astros in 2004, but keep in mind the kind of dreg for which they would be standing in. Being worth one win over theoretical replacement level would help the Angels in a tight pennant race, but being worth three wins over the mess that they would truly replace makes a huge difference. I believe that Weaver, Colon, Lackey, Santana, and Escobar are enough in the way of starting pitching, even if they have to patch things together with Hector Carrasco and Kevin Gregg every now and then. For a team getting so many contributions from 30+ players, there is at least some reason to play for right now, and nabbing a real first baseman would help them tremendously in a division without a dominant team.

12. San Diego- Quick, name the most valuable San Diego Padre position player for 2006. Brian Giles is not even close due to his .386 SLG, part of a family-wide letdown. Mike Piazza would be a good guess with a solid performance across the board, but his playing time has been closely monitored, leaving him fourth on the team. Josh Barfield is having a great rookie year with surprisingly few bumps in the road, and surprisingly little national attention (an epidemic that seems to collectively slap the entire organization in the face). Mike Cameron is second, legitimizing the risk of picking up a player with a broken face and hitting consistently in the everyday lineup. The leader did not even join the team until midway through the first half, but has torched pitchers ever since. Piazza’s backup, Josh Bard, is hitting .379/.439/.629 and showing why the Red Sox so badly wanted him to be able to catch a knuckleball. That would be embarrassing, but the rest of the team has 12 and 20 runs of VORP outside of third base. Fixing that situation through reacquiring Joe Randa, or getting creative somewhere else, would make them a pretty solid offensive team in a ballpark that does not let them show it with lots of run scoring. On the other side of the ledger, Chris Young recently completed his second straight dominant second half. Repeating the performance through at least August would show meaningful growth, though slipping back to last year’s form would demonstrate a real problem. Jake Peavy is the bigger story, falling so far from grace that he was recently rumored to be headed to Boston for Mike Lowell, who was forced on Boston this offseason as a burdensome throw-in to the Josh Beckett deal. Peavy’s problems are twofold, but not terribly discouraging. One change from last year is his homerun rate ballooning from .8 last year to 1.23 this year, more than 50% increase. Peavy’s other peripherals are in order (more than 9 K/9 and about 2.5 BB/9), so those extra five or six homeruns over the course of the season might just be an aberration. The other factor contributing to Peavy’s allowing more ER so far this year than in either of the last two full seasons has been an astonishingly high .329 BA on balls in play. A normally good defense has let him down time and again. Overall, San Diego ranks second in the league in turning batted balls into outs, at a rate of 71.5% of balls in play. When Peavy pitches, however, the team has fallen to 67.4%, which would rank them second to last in the majors. If the defense behind Peavy even approximates what it does behind all of the other SD pitchers, his second half will look far better than the first, the Mike Lowell rumors will look ridiculous, and the Padres will have a great chance at returning to October for the second straight year.

11. Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers are now down 3.5 games in the NL West race, but they are the only team in the division with at least a +10 run differential. At +25 runs, the Dodgers might be a little better than their 47-50 record. The NL West is a crapshoot, so it could come down to one or two wins here or there, and their run differential indicates that they might have a leg up over the last couple of months. In fact, the BP playoff odds report, which runs 1,000,000 simulations of the rest of the season using PECOTA projections to weight the players’ likelihood of continued success/failure, gives the Dodgers a 25% chance of making the playoffs, actually a bit behind the 35% for the Giants, 41% for the Padres, and 28% for the Diamondbacks. Aside from an early DL stint, Nomar Garciaparra has been a fringe MVP candidate at .337/.405/.553. A couple of other old players have also contributed, such as Jeff Kent (16.7 VORP), Kenny Lofton (13.4), Olmedo Saenz (10.2), as well as some very young players, like Russell Martin (11.2), Andre Ethier (16.1), and Matt Kemp (7.0). The mix of old and young gives them a bit of a buffer zone, such as having extra players on hand in case anyone breaks down, and being able to trade some high-level prospects to fill in holes at the deadline. Speaking of holes, the rotation really only goes two deep with Brad Penny and Derek Lowe pitching like they were supposed to pitch when the DePodesta regime doled out loads of money for them. Aaron Sele has been outstanding, but the absurdity of that statement is enough to more or less delegitimize his performance. Chad Billingsley has been fine as a rookie, but not good enough to be the team’s third starter, and neither is Brett Tomko, who doesn’t strike anyone out and gives up a huge number of HRs in Dodger stadium. Ned Colletti already made one mistake in trading too much for not enough in the swap that brought them Mark Hendrickson (negative VORP in four starts), so he would be wise to hold out for a higher return if he decides to trade one of his other top prospects, such as Joel Guzman. That is not to say that trading to win now is a bad idea, since the playoffs are eminently reachable in their division and the team is built around several players who will likely never approximate this year’s performance again due to age and injury concerns. Shoring up the rotation is a start, but they should also find more help at third base, and possibly some insurance in case Kenny Lofton breaks down.

10. Oakland A’s- The A’s have been a tremendous letdown this season, partially due to a plague of varied injuries, and partially due to their own inability to hit anything but singles. Acquiring Frank Thomas was supposed to rectify their slugging problem, but where Thomas has been solid, everyone else has bombed. Eric Chavez is hitting under .250 and slugging under .450. Bobby Crosby is slugging below .350 with a Juan Castro-like .298 OBP. This roster was built to avoid strikeouts, which it has accomplished to an extent, with the 8th most K’s in the league against the third most walks. But the overall team OPS has been the worst in the league, and it has resulted in the second worst run scoring total in the league, ahead of only Tampa Bay. On the mound Barry Zito and Dan Haren have led a stellar staff (2nd in the AL in runs prevented) by pitching lots of innings. Zito has made his money by not allowing HRs, but doling out his usual allotment of free passes. Haren, on the other hand, has been a control freak, walking less than two per nine. Brad Halsey and Joe Blanton have been solid, and even Esteban Loaiza has shown signs of life lately, indicating that they can survive without Rich Harden, if not thrive. Of course, the hope in Oakland is that Harden turns his career around and gets over his arm problems, but it is a lot easier to think of examples of players who played unsatisfying and injury-filled careers than ones who overcame frailty to be healthy for a long time. Going into the deadline, Oakland is a perplexing case. They constantly hint that Zito is dangling by a thread, especially in a thin pitching market. I do not understand why they would trade Zito for Lastings Milledge, as rumored, when they could pick up two early draft selections by letting him walk, instead. Maybe Beane sees the draft as too much of a crapshoot, but Milledge is hardly ready to contribute today, so it is not as if they are passing on a current All-Star. If they really want to make a run this year, the easiest places to upgrade would be in the OF (over Joe Payton) and at second base (over Mark Ellis). Beane allegedly inquired about Alfonso Soriano last week, so it seems that they have pinpointed some of the same weaknesses. As for the rest of the terrible lineup, the walk rates are still there for Crosby and Chavez, so it may just take time to recover the batting average, and in turn, a bit of the slugging. Beane has been patient all year, but it may be time to start making changes.

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9. Texas Rangers- By default, the Rangers become my pick to win the AL West as the highest ranked team from that division in the rankings. Unlike a lot of teams who have nowhere to go but down, the Rangers have lots of room for growth to make up for the likely regression from Gary Matthews Jr. In fact, at .325/.376/.518, Matthews might make for good trade bait, with a value that will never be higher in a market that could fetch them a real pitcher for a solid centerfielder. Not a single offensive regular has had a truly bad year that hints at permanent decline, but guys like Brad Wilkerson, Hank Blalock, and Mark Teixeira have room for improvement within reasonable expectations. Each one has had some BA and SLG struggles that can eventually be overcome without a major change in approach. Even in an offensive-minded stadium, the Rangers are only 7th in the AL in runs scored, and a better than expected pitching-defense unit has kept them within a game or two of the division lead for most of the season. They have made due with a bullpen of rejects, like Rick Bauer (15.0 VORP), soft-balling Ron Mahay (7.0), Bryan Corey (7.7), and revelatory closer Akinori Otsuka (18.8). Off-season acquisitions Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla have been solid inning eaters in the rotation, combining for better than 40 runs of VORP. After them, John Rheinecker and John Kornoka have made positive, if not brilliant, contributions, and Adam Eaton will join the rotation in the relatively near future, possibly rounding out Texas’s first decent rotation in years. I see plenty of room for the Rangers to improve down the stretch, only a few players likely to fall off, and a good chance to finally turn the corner and win the AL West.

8. Toronto Blue Jays- If it is any consolation for a 3rd place finish, the Jays’ big spending has certainly improved the team. I predicted before the season that they had done enough to cross the 90 win threshold, possibly verging on 93-94 wins and pressing for the Wild Card if Boston or New York faltered. The emergence of the Tigers threw a big monkey wrench in J.P. Riccardi’s plan to get into the postseason and ride Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. As it has turned out, the outfield of Reed Johnson, Alexis Rios, and Vernon Wells has been remarkably productive- the three highest VORP totals on the team. Lyle Overbay, maybe the team’s 5th or 6th biggest off-season pickup, is 4th on the offense. Still, Troy Glaus has been productive, B.J. Ryan has been one of the best relievers in the league. If A.J. Burnett can turn six successful starts into a more sustainable contribution, he could help the team get over their 90.2 win pace and actually challenge in the AL East. The remaining obstacles are pretty clearly defined; the rotation needs another good starter, whether Josh Towers returns to being one or not. Between Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, the team has one decent middle infielder (Hill), and needs to get another one to fill in the offensive holes if Rios cannot outlast his staph infection or if Johnson cannot continue hitting .347. Losing Shea Hillenbrand will probably have a negative effect on the offense, but could be replaced with one of the many 4th outfielder types without too great of a deficit. Riccardi mortgaged the team for this year and next, so you can expect them to be active leading up to the trade deadline, and filling in the pitching or offensive holes could make enough of a difference to let them pounce on any mistakes by the Yankees or Red Sox. Nonetheless, they face a pretty tough road to the playoffs.

7. Minnesota Twins- As tough as it will be for Toronto to overcome two teams and about five games in the AL East, BP’s playoff odds report says that they have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Twins (15% to 11%). Twins fans have focused on catching and passing the White Sox, but even though they are the current Wild Card leaders, the Twins also must overcome the Yankees, who are within a game and a half of Chicago. Once again, it comes down to finding a way to get past Chicago and New York, which is not always the easiest track for the Twins, especially now that Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield are nearing a return. If the Twins want to make the playoffs, they will probably have to catch and pass the Yankees before those returns in mid-August, so the current hot streak has to extend through the tough stretch of playing Detroit and Chicago in the next few weeks. As I commented earlier, the run differential of “these” Twins- as opposed to the Batista-Castro Twins- is comparable to any of the AL contenders, and most trades to not hold up to logical scrutiny. If the Twins want to make any changes down the stretch, it should be to let some of their talented minor league pitchers get a shot at the rotation spot that Carlos Silva has been blaspheming for the last few months. Getting Hunter and Ford back could provide some offensive help and lots of defensive help, which should basically negate the effect of the fact that Justin Morneau is not a .300 hitter and Joe Mauer is not a .380 hitter. Improvement must come from within: from continued defensive improvement, from OBP at the top of the lineup, from solidifying the back of the rotation with guys in the pipeline, and from continuing to put the best available lineup on the field day after day.

6. St. Louis Cardinals- The Cards are already an 82% bet to make the playoffs, but that is more of a reflection of their competition than their own competency. Depending on who you trust, the Cards have either already made their big move by nabbing Jeff Weaver from Anaheim on his darkest day, or else they have a big trade in the works for Dontrelle Willis by giving up everything in their farm system to make a run this year, and maybe next. As long as Pujols is threatening to set dozens of different offensive records, I will never say that his team should not go for a title that season, especially when their competition has given them a free pass into the playoffs. The pitching rotation has been the problem all season long, arguably compounded by Mark Mulder’s should injury. In fact, Mulder was below replacement level for the year, due to a solemn 4.8 K/9 and almost 2 HR/9, and could easily be outperformed by Weaver, functioning as his replacement. Sidney Ponson was recently released, although he was no worse than mainstays Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis, simply lacking their postseason experience, whatever that is worth. Chris Carpenter has been great, and Anthony Reyes has become a good contributor at the back of the rotation. Walt Jocketty would be wise to find another starter who could contribute, but Willis may be too big of a ticket for them. More middling starters who could come around down the stretch and really do good work in the playoffs would be worth their while. Remember, this team is probably going to make the playoffs with or without rotation help, so they should be thinking of filling in gaps that will make a difference in October more than August or September. Orlando Hernandez is already taken, but if they can pinpoint another starter who can give them a few good weeks at a time, then charge him up for the postseason, the Cards could pose a threat to the Mets in the NLCS. Even without any more pitching, just having Albert Pujols might be enough to challenge just about anyone, and Scott Rolen has surprisingly returned comfortably to his position as one of the top third basemen in the National league. Behind those two, they may lean on Hector Luna, Scott Spiezio, Chris Duncan, or any other mess of quad-A types, but all any of them needs to do is to get on base in front of the middle of the order, and they will score enough runs to compete. Only Yadier Molina is doing violence to the offense, though acquiring a new catcher seems unlikely after putting up with his out wastefulness for a couple seasons already. My guess is that Tony LaRussa will be confident riding another deep and talented bullpen into the postseason, and that the roster will somehow start to look a lot more dangerous in the playoffs than it does now.

One day left for the final five, and I promise that this column will not be another 3,000 word ode to baseball urn.