Power Rankings

I spend a lot of time forecasting the future. My recent series on the Twins possible lineup in 2010 is symptomatic of a problem I have with merely existing in the present. Things change, and the more they change, the harder it is to make an accurate forecast based on current knowledge, so perhaps I ought to focus on the here and now every once in a while. Still, sports naturally lend themselves to prognostication, since every game is geared to the eventual goal of a championship. That is why, to me, a series Bill Simmons ran on the NBA sporadically through the last season was one of the best sports columns in my memory. Simmons, whose wit and basketball knowledge often outweighs his choice of topics, kept up a “big picture” column, where he balanced each team’s performance up to the present with the omnipresent context of the team’s chances of winning a title. By contrast, baseball power rankings put entirely too much weight on what has happened up until now, and not enough weight on what is most likely to happen in the near future. In the same way that other NBA power rankings fell in love with the Suns’ gaudy win totals, ESPN.com and others seem to think that the Tigers’ pitching staff is more improvement than aberration. This week, I will attempt to reach a compromise between what we have seen from each team and what that means for their chances of winning the World Series this year. Obviously, some teams have already relegated their hopes to the realm of impossibility, but they still belong in the power rankings, if only as an opportunity for me to give a brief opinion on their placement. Without further ado, onto the power rankings:

Playing For 2008

30. Pittsburgh Pirates- Fresh off of the high of hosting the ASG, Buccos fans must sadly return to the reality that their team has almost no hope. The last spot had to be between them and KC, but ultimately, I decided that Pittsburgh is a little more depressing, and not only because they are a game behind the Royals in the standings. On the positive side, at least Jason Bay is a worthy All-Star, and the pitching staff has some positive growth prospects for the future with Snell, Duke, Gorzellany, et al. On the other hand, they have managed to perform below KC’s level in a much easier division, the farm system does not have anyone of the caliber of Billy Butler or Alex Gordon in KC, and the front office seems content to make the same mistakes (Sean Casey, Jeromy Burnitz) over and over again. More than anything, the Pirates need direction, and right now they have all the orientation of a busted compass.

29. Kansas City Royals- It is a shame that the two worst teams in baseball share in common great sports towns and underrated stadiums. The Royals, unlike the Pirates, at least show an interest in getting better. Owner David Glass is notoriously tight with the purse strings, but hiring Dayton Moore away from Atlanta demonstrates an interest in- if not dedication to- developing a strong farm system, which may be the one way a team can eventually win without spending all that much money. As I mentioned in the Pittsburgh piece, the farm system already has a couple of gems in Butler and Gordon, but they have a long way to go. Ranking them ahead of the Pirates is not so much an endorsement of what the team has done as it is an acknowledgment that they have yet to make any huge mistakes. They have a clean slate, now we’ll see what they do with it. If the team does not get any better in the next couple of years, they are going to join the ranks of miserable sports teams that are more famous for being bad than anything else. The Bengals and Clippers recently ascended from that status in pro sports, and the D-Rays may vacate baseball’s permanent cellar in the next couple of years. Before long, fans will be wearing garbage bags to games, and they will get their own mildly insulting moniker in the proud lineage of the Twinkies, Buccos and Bungles. (Foibles? Royal Flush?)

28. Chicago Cubs- The Cubs are a different sort of miserable. Even before the year, when some pundits were picking them as a sleeper to make a run at the diminished Cardinals, it seemed like the Cubs at pretty big holes all over the field. Their pitching staff was top-heavy, but lacked the depth that a staff with Prior and Wood necessitates, let alone a staff with Prior and Wood that is managed by Dusty Baker. Offensively, Derek Lee looked like a good bet to put up another strong season, but an outfield of Jones-Pierre-Murton hinted at serious on-base problems. The infield isn’t much better, as Dusty inexplicably overcame his aversion for young players to let Ronny Cedeno post a .617 OPS at shortstop. Carlos Zambrano, Michael Barrett, Aramis Ramirez and Lee are all championship-caliber players, but the rest of the important players on the roster are hardly major league-caliber. In recent years, the Cubs have tried to leverage their bankroll into building a team of stars through free agency, much like the Yankees. But without as much money or as many attractive features as New York, the Cubs have had to settle for B-rate talent at the top, but they have all of the same problems as the Yankees in terms of filling in the gaps with cheap talent from their own system- trades and draft pick compensation have dried it out. Is it any coincidence that both teams sampled Tony Womack in the recent past?

27. Washington Nationals- Much as I have maligned Jim Bowden since he took over the Nationals, he has made two slam dunk trades. The Vinny Castilla for Brian Lawrence deal from last off-season left them with a broken down version of his sought-after 3rd starter type, but moving Castilla for anything opened the path for Ryan Zimmerman. More recently, adding Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for relief pitchers has to be a good idea, unless one of those relievers turns out to be Mariano Rivera (highly unlikely). Even the Soriano deal, terrible as it looked at the time, has worked out reasonably well with the Fonz learning plate discipline the hard way- batting in front of a terrible lineup- and defying everything we know about park effects. The Nats are currently starting legitimate players at every position for the first time since arriving in DC, but that ecstasy probably will not last through the end of the month. Soriano’s value is higher than when the Nats overpaid to acquire him, so maybe they will be able to get a reasonable swag in return from the Mets, Yankees, or, who knows, the White Sox. One way or another, the team needs to start restocking the farm system, because they do not have the pitching depth to sustain a run, and Livan Hernandez, Tony Armas, and Jose Guillen will fetch a variety of goodies. In all, the Nationals have been pretty bad all year, and will be pretty bad in the near future, but look pretty decent for the next couple of weeks. If the current roster finished the season together, it would rank a few slots higher.
I shall return with more on this subject in the near future, but the project is taking more time and words than anticipated, so I will spare us both the concern for the time being.