.500

It had to happen eventually. The Twins may not be an elite team in the American League, or even in the Central Division, but they are certainly better than they were playing for the first two months of the season. The pitching staff was underachieving, the defense was awful, worse than one would reasonably expect it to be given its components, and the offense had problems that were masked by a handful of one game explosions. My greatest fear was that the Twins would go on a hot streak before making the appropriate adjustments and the management and local media would give credit to the veteran leadership of Batista and Castro, cementing their status as money-sucking regulars, and prevent the possibility of initiating the far advantageous youth movement. Luckily, the collective rebound concurred with the start of some overdue roster moves. Perhaps not coincidentally, swapping Silva and Lohse out for Liriano and Bonser started making the starting rotation look a little deeper and more consistent. Terry Ryan and his compatriots appropriately took note, subtracting more veteran dreg like Batista and Castro at the start of a seven game (and counting) winning streak. If Ryan is paying close enough attention, he will take note of Shannon Stewart’s eminent expendability as the trade deadline nears. Certainly there is some relationship between adding the more talented Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett, Nick Punto, and Luis Rodriguez to the regular lineup, and all of them have made conveniently memorable plays to cement their status as not only regulars, but essential cogs in an improved lineup. Still, the most significant component of the improvement is way the most important players have almost all turned in better performances in June than they did in April or May.

After starting the month 1-5 and struggling through a difficult west coast road trip, the Twins avoided a sweep in Seattle on the eighth, starting a 9-1 stretch that brought them from 25-33 to 34-34, within shouting- or perhaps bellowing- distance of the unconscious division leaders who are still well over .600. While contention is still several good breaks away from being a reality- BP’s playoff odds report gives the Twins a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs, worse than Cleveland who has once again underperformed its run differential in the standings-, a collapse at the top is conceivable, and the Twins improvement is quite possibly real. A few weeks ago, I identified the Twins defense as being so horribly ineffective as to be perhaps the biggest impediment to the team’s success. Since that time, the Twins have improved from converting 64.7% of batted balls into outs to converting 66.8% of balls into outs, a somewhat staggering improvement for only a few short weeks. Certainly, bumping the lead-footed Batista off of the hot corner has made a big difference, especially with Luis Rodriguez making up four full runs over replacement level in only 11 starts at third. His true level of performance is probably much lower, but his success contrasts starkly with Batista’s struggles, providing an interesting and telling instance of what “defensive replacement” truly means. Similarly, Nick Punto has made some uncharacteristically flashy defensive plays in the last week at very opportune times, saving a run in the 12th inning against Boston and making nice plays with men on base in each of the first two games against Pittsburgh. Even though history indicates that neither Punto nor Rodriguez is as good of a fielder as they have been for the last couple of weeks, but if you are wondering what caused the sudden turnaround, the team-wide revelation of catching the ball has played no small role.

In an intrinsically related development, the pitching staff has started to look more like the lights out unit that we expected at the start of the year. The team has outscored the opposition 60-30 over the most recent 10 games, and nine of those runs surrendered came in the one loss to Baltimore in Carlos Silva’s undeserved second start since returning from the bullpen. Other than Silva, the rest of the staff has been solid or better. Brad Radke had a disastrous April, making the rest of his season look much worse than it really has been. Even though he has not had lights out starts or complete games, Radke has consistently been himself for the last month and a half with a 4.33 ERA. The strikeouts have not been there (6 in 18.2 IP this month), but he has reduced his HR allowed from 10 in 26.1 April innings to 5 in 54 innings even since. While Radke and Bonser have been merely adequate, Liriano and Santana have immediately delivered on the long-term dreams hopes and dreams we all held for them as the best lefty duo in recent memory. In only 6 starts, Liriano has already pitched well enough to combine with Santana as the top duo in the majors in terms of VORP, just outpacing Detroit’s Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander (Liriano’s top ROY competition), 60.4-55.6- not including Santana’s start in Pittsburgh. In the five games the two have combined to start in the 9-1 streak, they are 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA in 34 IP with a 37-4 K-BB ratio. Even the bullpen has been exceptional: Nathan and Rincon have continued their dominance, but with more high leverage situations available in which to show it. Jesse Crain has even strung together some good outings, reducing his ERA from 7.97 on May 27th to 5.81 today by giving up only 2 ER in his last 10.2 IP.

Offensively, Joe Mauer has carried the team, hitting like Ted Williams with a glove, trailing only Travis Hafner in the AL in VORP, and equaling Albert Pujols (Albert freakin’ Pujols) in positional marginal lineup value at 28.4 runs. Mike Cuddyer has actually cooled off a bit, hitting .218 in the month, but 13 walks have maintained his value to the team, and his .529 SLG is still the best on the squad. Kubel has also provided lots of offensive help, and will hopefully continue to do so after Stewart returns from the DL. Bartlett has had a similar effect in a very short time, but Morneau has been the real breakout star of the offense. After 22 April strikeouts and a .208 average, Morneau has scorched a .353/.397/.686 line in June and only 25 stirkeouts in his last 146 ABs. Forget about the first Twin to hit 30 HR in a season in 20 years, Morneau is on pace for 38, and with his current hot spell, that pace could look even better in a couple of weeks.

That is what has been right for the last week and a half. The Twins still have major problems, such as the lack of a major league caliber third baseman, a decent fifth starter and many on-base issues at almost every position but catcher. A .900 winning percentage would be nice for the rest of the season, but the odds are that they will stay a few games behind legitimate contention. For the time being, just step back and enjoy a stretch of good baseball after a long period of frustration. The Twins have better days ahead, and we can hope that the last 10 games are a preview of 2007 and beyond more than an indication of the current roster’s upside.