2010: An Outdoor Odyssey

One of my first reactions to the approval of an outdoor baseball stadium in Minnesota was the pressure it takes off of the Twins front office in the short term. As long as a stadium hung in the balance, Terry Ryan had an added pressure to make it seem like the team could sustain contention and playoff appearances to make a new stadium worth it to the state. It seemed that every time the team had a losing streak, they lost momentum towards passing a stadium bill, and winning four or five games at home would get the ball rolling once again. Surprisingly enough, the team finally got approval around the time that they started sliding into mediocrity, hovering five games under .500 in a division with two of the best teams in baseball. That sort of fortuitous timing can let Ryan get out of the win-now mentality that has led to mistakes like Tony Batista and Rondell White and start working in the direction of the next contending team. Players like Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel have more to gain by playing every day at the major league level than repeating AAA time and again. Additionally, the organization does not have to spend money on older free agents, especially in the form of multiyear commitments, which gives them more flexibility in the future. The Twins used to talk about five year cycles of contending and rebuilding, but with some smart personnel moves now, the team can be back near the top of the division by 2010, just in time for the new stadium, even without an exorbitant increase in spending. Position by position, the Twins have viable options at every position for the next few years within the system. By working them into the lineup now, they can get a better idea of who is a long term solution and who is part of the problem.

At catcher, Joe Mauer is obviously the short and long term solution. He is already one of the top catchers in the game and profiles to peak around the time the new stadium opens. The only pending concern revolves around the possibility of leaving him behind the plate for much longer than six or seven major league seasons, as even many of the best catchers in baseball history have moved out to the field to preserve their health. Mauer has value as a third baseman due to his bat, but he is not the Mike Piazza type of catcher whose glove is a hindrance. In fact, his glove makes him one of the best defensive catchers in the league, and the organization’s focus on fielding cements his status as a catcher for as long as his knees allow.

Justin Morneau may have his drawbacks, but his strengths provide plenty of value for the team, especially if he makes improvements up to his peak years. His strikeout rate is too high, but he hits homeruns, and the new stadium’s short right field line plays into swing. Remember that Safeco field was built as a pitcher’s park with a short right field line for Ken Griffey Jr., but he was gone before the team ever played a game in the stadium. It is hard to project for the rest of this season, let alone five years into the future, so keep in mind that any one of these players could suffer a career ending injury or have some other career altering occurrence in the meantime. Ideally speaking, though, Morneau fits into the team’s long term plan, especially with a slowly improving glove at first base and a minor league record that hints at better hitting to come. Unfortunately, the team does not have many options at first, considering that the next best alternative, Garret Jones, currently has a .664 OPS at AAA and does not have quite so many years to catch up with the competition. Eric Lis deserves some consideration, but he is still all the way down in low-A Beloit. On the bright side, he had an OPS above .900 last season and is over 1.000 so far this year, and he improved his K:BB rate from 4:1 last year to better than 1:1 this year. He is not considered one of the top prospects in the system, but his stats so far do not disqualify him from succeeding in the future.

The entire organization has a shortage of middle infielders. After Jason Bartlett- who should be in the majors at this point anyway- there is a big drop off in the quality of the prospects. Ryan seems to have recognized the problem, picking up a second baseman with a high ceiling in the J.C. Romero trade. The Angels were dealing from a position of strength with Kendrick and Aybar at second, so Alexi Casilla was expendable. Casilla certainly has more upside than Romero, but may wash out before ever making the majors.

He has been the most productive regular for high-A Fort Meyers, but that is not saying much, since he has only posted a .286/.321/.382 line so far this season. Even with a good glove, he needs to improve either his patience or his power to become a viable major league possibility. Felix Molina is another possibility with six HRs and a walk every ten plate appearances at AA New Britain. Consider the possibility of a position shift for Gilbert Velazquez, the shortstop who has put together solid batting stats in very limited playing time between AA and AAA. Do not be surprised if the Twins address this shortcoming through the draft in the next couple of years. Altogether, Luis Castillo does not have much left, certainly not enough to start when the Twins enter their new stadium, and the minor leagues do not offer a clear alternative.

Third base is a position where the Twins have more of a clear future. If the front office has even a modicum of reasonability, we will probably see Tony Batista out of the lineup before the end of the season with Terry Tiffee or Luis Rodriguez taking over before the end of the year. Tiffee is not hitting for the power we would expect at AAA, but he will not be any worse than Batista, and Rodriguez has at least showed a decent glove in his starts at the hot corner. None of these players has a future beyond the bench, though, as Matt Moses is one of the team’s top position prospects, currently honing his glove work at short in AA. Moses probably does not have the glove for short, but he certainly has the bat for third, currently slugging .467 and projecting as a major league slugger in a few years. He may not reach his peak by 2010, but do not be surprised if he gets substantial playing time by 2008, and entrenches himself as the franchise third baseman not long after that. Third base is a position of concern right now, but not in the long term.

Shortstop is a horse I have beat to death. Jason Bartlett is better at the plate and in the field than Juan Castro today. He is slugging .470 in AAA, and even if that only translates to something like .420-.430 in the majors, that would make him an exceptional shortstop with the glove he flashes in the field. Few teams have young shortstops with as much ability and upside, and even several contenders would be happy to plug Bartlett into the starting lineup today- Boston? Houston? Detroit once Guillen goes down? As long as the team is not contending anyway, not playing Bartlett is not going to kill them, but it hints at Gardy’s dislike for Bartlett, which could become a real problem once the team needs him to get over the hump.

Next time, I will continue looking at some possibilities for the Twins as they rebuild their lineup into contention.