Silva Lining

Forget the likelihood of a pitcher legitimately adding five runs of ERA from one year to the next without experiencing a major injury or age attrition. Forget the memorably low walk rates that made a sinkerballer without a strikeout pitch an effective major league starter. Even forget the painful experience of 41 runs and 12 homeruns in 42 innings so far this year that has put the Twins at a big deficit in the AL Central. Usually, a train wreck this bad makes Twins fans complain in Rivasian proportions, but we can all look forward to brighter every-fifth-days ahead. Francisco Liriano has arrived.

Over the last several years, we have all become accustomed to painfully long leashes on Twins players. Luis Rivas played through months and even years of win-killing crappiness. More recently, we witnessed Bret Boone exhibit a hopelessly deteriorated skill set for entirely too long before he was sent on his way. Old Man Mulholland, Kyle Lohse, Juan Castro, Tony Batista, Henry Blanco, Doug Mientkiewicz. Let’s just say that the Terry Ryan regime has not made its reputation for choosing young players over veterans or for giving up on anyone quickly. The fact that Gardenhire and Ryan agreed that Carlos Silva needed to be bumped out of the rotation after only seven starts speaks volumes about how bad he has been so far this season. I have no agenda against Silva; he’s actually one of my favorite Twins to watch, and losing his rotation spot probably decreases the resale value of my #52 Silva jersey. Nonetheless, you may remember that I argued recently that he has been uniquely worse than the rest of the struggling Twins starters because his troubles do not go back to an unusually high batting average on balls in play. As of Today, Silva’s previously low BABIP has jumped to .335- a bit high, but not unusual for a heavy groundball pitcher. The higher HR rate (ok, obscenely high 2.93 HR/9 rate) and the low K rate (2.54/9) coupled to send Silva’s season into flames. In other words, Silva didn’t just step off of the tightrope; the tightrope snapped and Silva had no net below him.

Let me reiterate: hope is on the way, and hope’s name is Francisco Liriano. Where a low BABIP masked Silva’s weaknesses last year, Liriano has had the opposite problem so far in the major leagues and has succeeded in spite of it. In 23 IP last season, he posted a phenomenal 33:7 K:BB ratio and surrendered 4 HR- a little high, but within the realm of the small sample size. Out of the bullpen, he has posted similar numbers so far this season, with an even better 32:4 K:BB ratio and only one HR. Not impressed by the 3.22 ERA? Consider that the Twins defense has let him down to the tune of a .441 BABIP, meaning that he should have fully 33% less base runners to worry about once the sample size evens out. He’s sixth on the team in IP and second in value over replacement player, nearly eight runs better than replacement and more than three full wins better than Silva so far.

Is it reasonable to expect Liriano to continue at the same high level of performance? PECOTA predicted a 26.6 VORP for Liriano in 39 games (22 starts, 158 IP). The playing time projections were pretty much on target. The Twins used him as a “long” reliever, averaging about 2 IP per performance with more days in between uses, but if he had pitched those 17 relief appearances at one inning per appearance, that would leave him 141 innings in 22 starts, or approximately six and a half innings per start. Considering that he joins the rotation in its eighth full turn, Liriano stands to make about 23-24 starts, putting the playing time on par with PECOTA’s projection. The 4.18 EqERA seems high for Liriano, though, as he has proven that he can strike out more than 8 batters per nine innings and walk less than 3.3/9, which are the rates PECOTA had set for him. He has not shown a particular proclivity for throwing groundballs over his minor league career, but has thrown almost two groundballs for every flyball his limited playing time this year. Continuing that trend would press his HR rate below the projection of 0.8/9. Maybe he is not ready to be Johan Santana just yet, but remember Johan’s first year as a starter? He put up a 3.07 ERA in 158 IP with 169 Ks, 47 BBs and 17 HRs. Maybe those numbers are a little ambitious for Liriano’s first full season, especially since Johan had four times more major league experience before becoming a full time starter than Liriano has now, but his makeup, stuff, and numbers all indicate a bright future so long as the team treats him with kid gloves through the injury nexus, taking the ample contributions as they come, but not pushing him into ace workhorse territory this season or next. Remember that Liriano came to the Twins cheaply due to past injury problems, so as exciting as he is to watch, the team has to continue doing whatever they do to avoid major pitching injuries. If they can do so, Liriano can be a star in the league for years to come.