Lasting Impressions

Sure, a few weeks is not enough time to make judgments about teams for certain, but that does not mean we cannot be impressed by early season performances. Chris Shelton, for example, may have had a high upside in his statistical profile, but is there anyone who expected a start like he has had? I’m not talking about Albert Pujols hitting homerun after homerun; we all expect him to be a world beater. Today, I want to focus on the performances and the numbers that have seemingly come out of nowhere, even if they are not likely to continue.

Most Impressive

Morgan Ensberg: Ensberg hit his ninth homerun today, which is impressive in itself, but he’s one of a handful to reach that threshold. Hitting .400 through 20 games is another solid statistic, but if he did it over the month of August he would be a guy having a great month rather than someone having a second consecutive breakout season. What really sets Ensberg apart for me is the fact that he has a 1.478 OPS while playing with a Staph infection. All the while, he is leading Houston to the top record in the NL, a game in front of the much hyped Mets. Houston was supposed to be down this year, but with a solid rotation. So far, their no. 2 offense in the senior circuit has overcome bad pitching performances from everyone but Roy Oswalt. I do not know what it takes to fix a Staph infection, but if he gets a chance to play healthy, he just might hit 80 homeruns with a .450 average. Or not.

Ryan Freel: We knew that the Reds had to have a contingency plan for Griffey and even for Austin Kearns, but this scenario is not exactly how anyone expected it to play out. First, they flipped fourth OF extraordinaire Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo, which has worked out well so far. Next, Major League-ready AAA stud Chris Denorfia has languished in Louisville all year, seemingly creating a void of outfielders for the big club. But the team got creative, plugging former Indian Brandon Phillips into second base ahead of Tony Womack and shifting Adam Dunn to left. When Griffey went down for a precautionary DL stint after a minor injury, super-sub Ryan Freel started getting everyday ABs in center. So far, Freel has stolen eight bases, living up to his reputation as a speedster, but has walked 15 times, good for 8th in the NL in OBP. Avoiding outs like that will make people ignore his sub-.400 SLG. A .450/.350 OPS split? That’s downright Bondsian. Of course the concern is that pitchers will go after him if he cannot prove he is able to punish pitches over the plate, decreasing his BB totals, but you have got to give credit where credit is due, and he has put himself in some pretty good company so far.

John Patterson: Would you have guessed John Patterson leads the majors in strikeouts? Probably not, as a 1-0 record through four starts is like 2005 redux when he went 9-7 with an ERA just over 3.00 and great peripheral stats. Patterson’s lack of decisions is curious, as he posted 198 innings last year in 31 starts and is averaging almost seven per start so far this year. At very least, he is putting his team in a position to win, an especially important feat with Livan Hernandez off to a weaker start. Staying in the company of Pedro, Schilling, Glavine, Chris Carpenter, and King Felix will probably ensure that he does not remain stuck on one win for long.

Least Impressive

Brad Wilkerson: The Rangers’ jewel of the supposed off season heist in the Soriano trade has been a mess so far, more problem than solution in the team’s struggle to stay afloat in the difficult AL West. While Soriano has surprised to the tune of .329/.380/.644- acclimating himself to pitcher-friendly RFK with three homeruns on a soggy night last Friday- Wilkerson has struggled with an old shoulder injury. Losing two-thirds of his homeruns last year was partially attributable to his stadium, but was still a cause for concern. Moving to Arlington with a winter to rehab his shoulder was supposed to yield big results, but so far he has only been able to go .191/.247/.338. For his career, he has struck out about 1.5x more than he has walked, but this year the ratio is 29/4 in 68 ABs. That statistic indicates two things: first, he has been horrifically awful so far this year, and second, there is a high probability that he will make his way back.

Twins pitching staff: I know that nobody needs to be reminded of this one, but the struggles across the board are very disconcerting. Radke (-2.0 VORP), Lohse (-7.9) and Silva (-3.0) have all pitched below replacement level, with Santana and Baker performing only a little better. Nine of the eleven pitchers the Twins have used are giving up at least 9.9 hits per nine innings, with the exception of Liriano (stud) and Nathan (in four innings). I recently mentioned that Santana and Radke may need time to get a feel for their changeups, but neither has looked good at any point so far, and Silva has been even worse. In his most recent start against the White Sox, he only avoided walking hitters by throwing fat pitches over the plate, one after another. Unsurprisingly, the Sox tagged him for 13 hits and four homeruns in under six innings. If there is any consolation, perhaps it is the unusually high batting average on balls in play accumulated by Twins opponents. Only Nathan and Silva have sub-.300 BABIP, indicating that Silva’s may be a less hopeful case, but that luck should even out for the rest of the staff. Now if only that luck could even out in a hurry…

You Could See it Coming

Jim Thome: Thome has been exceptional, posting the top VORP in the entire AL to this point and leading the Sox to the best run differential in the league despite only average pitching. I never had much doubt that he would be able to be productive again, but saw his downside in his durability, which his numbers do not reflect. Posting a good April was not the biggest challenge for Thome, so much as it will be posting a solid July-August-September where he takes the field every day.

Greg Maddux: PECOTA and stathead analysts nailed this one, pegging Maddux for a big year from the start. His year so far is one where the sample size caveat comes with a grain of salt, as Maddux rarely has huge performance swings over the course of the year. In other words, his historical performance his the caveat for the caveat. John Smotlz pointed out in a Sunday Night Baseball interview that both Maddux and Glavine have had rough patches in their careers, but that both are heady hitters who make adjustments and do not struggle for long. Combine their intelligence with the miracles of modern medicine (including injury prevention) and refined conditioning methods, and Maddux and Glavine can keep pitching with softball repertoires for a few more years.