Check Swings
Early Season Twins Notes

The Tigers and Brewers are off to remarkably hot starts behind good young players and analysts like Joe Sheehan (here) remind us to take a healthy dose of restraint. But that does not mean that we can’t draw a few conclusions here and there from early competition. A lineup featuring Tony Batista and Juan Castro has struggled to overcome its struggles from a season ago? Call it confirmation of an old suspicion. I’ve said similar things before, but let me reiterate that I want the Twins to succeed and I want Tony Batista to have a career year (which would mean, what, a .310 OBP?), but those two statements are not necessarily compatible. Perhaps more noteworthy has been his horrendous defense, which was supposed to be a strong point. In the season opener against Toronto, he missed no less than three balls that it seemed he should have fielded, and his consistently bad placement and reactions have continued, even eliciting criticism from the Cleveland broadcast team on Saturday. So, yes, it is early, but the AL runs scored totals have shaken out remarkably quickly: the Twins are third worst in front of fellow usual suspects LA-A and KC.

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Johan Santana is off to another less than stellar start, failing to make it through six innings in either start and giving up double digit hits against Toronto. I guess that is what happens when hitters can sit dead-red fastball all day. Santana tried to throw his changeup and slider over and over in the WBC, missing high or way off the plate and occasionally leaving it way over the plate. Even in the first inning of the first game, he tried to get David Ortiz with a changeup that he took over the fence to give the DR its first lead preceding a beatdown of Venezuela from which the team never fully recovered. Toronto’s commentators offered a fair explanation, saying that the changeup is a feel pitch more so than any other, requiring the pitcher to repeat a very precise motion with almost no room for error. Recall the graph of Santana’s and Radke’s early season struggles and eventual peaks in July or August from last week; both are changeup specialists, Radke utilizing a circle change with fastball arm action and while Santana combines that pitch with a traditional change that falls off the table with late movement. It seems odd to me that both pitchers so routinely round into form at the same pace, seemingly taking the same amount of time to find the “feeling” of the changeup, but if the results continually reflect that impression, I guess I will remain hopeful and expectant of a better second half. The best case scenario includes Santana hitting stride a month earlier due to his early preparation for the WBC, perhaps helping him- and the Twins- to a couple of extra wins.

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Not all of the early returns are so negative, as the bullpen has been extraordinary once again. Dick and Bert have been fixated on the starters’ poor performances, and five out of six of the best ERAs come from relievers, albeit in some horribly small sample sizes. Juan Rincon, who had an abbreviated spring and was not sure he would be ready for opening day, has already pitched on back to back days and has struck out four batters in three and a third innings, indicating that his stuff is ahead of where it should be. Francisco Liriano has looked completely untouchable, a possible franchise player down the road. He has outperformed his stellar K/BB ratio from a year ago by posting an infinite one so far this year (7/0) and he slammed the door on Cleveland Saturday after they looked lively against Baker earlier in the game. If the team can properly utilize him as a relief ace of old who routinely pitches multiple innings, he could be a difference-maker right now. Even the weakest performer so far, Jesse Crain, has reason for optimism. Even though he has already surrendered a HR and two runs in only three IP, he seems to have regained his taste for the strikeout, punching out four against zero walks. For me, getting Crain to stop relying so heavily on his defense to get outs was the biggest concern in the bullpen, and at least that situation looks to be improving in his first few outings.

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My own guttural response to the Tigers’ strong start has been to become extremely discouraged about the prospects for the rest of the season. I could see the Twins falling behind them early and plodding to the ASB as far as ten games under .500 before recovering somewhat down the stretch to finish with about 78 wins. This instance is one of those where I should probably calm down a little, but it is a source of consternation… The schedule has not been conducive to a hot start, going on the road to visit one of the teams with the most optimism and opening day euphoria after a big off-season. It did not get any easier after that, as Cleveland, Oakland and New York may be the three divisional favorites or even best teams in the league… One of the non-Twins headlines that has caught my attention so far has been the mess of the NL West. My pick, LA, has already faced all kinds of injuries for the second straight year, but look to be better prepared for extended DL stints this time around. But San Fran’s lineup looks remarkably susceptible to injury as well, especially that old body builder with the five head. San Diego, even without Ryan Klesko, looks better and better now that Jake Peavy quit cheating on vision tests and found out he had a detached retina… Opening day in St. Louis was an altogether enjoyable experience via MLB.tv, the greatest internet innovation since real time score updates. New Busch stadium, allegedly a hitters’ park, looks stunning with its view of the Gateway Arch and its fanatical inhabitants. A summer trip to St. Louis is definitely on my long term itinerary… It is also a shame that Jimmy Rollins’s hit streak ended so early. Even if it was the second longest streak since Dimaggio, I wanted him to beat Benito Santiago’s mark and make Marilyn Monroe roll over in her grave. If Philadelphia replaced David Bell with anyone (native Fargoan Chris Coste from AAA Scranton-Wilks Barre anyone?), they would make up my favorite infield alongside Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. As it stands, I prefer Milwaukee’s combo of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Corey Koskie and Bill Hall. Just a great blend of youth, second generation future diabetics and Canadians. Good times.