The Big Blue Ribbon

As many journalists are wont to do, today I will go on the record with my picks for baseball’s major awards.

AL MVP
Smart money- David Ortiz- Last year, Ortiz made a lot of progress towards ending the deserved bias against DHs in MVP voting. Now he has the reputation for being a great leader and a clutch hitter, two qualities which are relentlessly self-affirming. Every time he gets a hit at a big moment, everyone will happily announce his clutch hitting ability. I don’t even deny that Ortiz is a great clutch hitter; I just do not think there are very good statistical methods confirming that suspicion, and I wish everyone would take that label with a grain of salt. Certainly, a good reputation does not an MVP make, but combined with the fact that he was a bridesmaid last year (generating sympathy and a sense of owing him something) and that everyone in and out of New York seems to hate Alex Rodriguez, who is the best player in the league. Now I don’t want to sound bitter, so I will close by praising Ortiz, who I expect to have a phenomenal, if not MVP-worthy, season. He could easily lead the league in HRs in a park that is not very friendly to left handed power hitters, his patience at the plate has made him even more intimidating, and he plays an important role for a team that figures to be in the race for the postseason.

Dark horse- Bobby Crosby- I have trouble picking an injury-plagued player who has yet to have a good season in the majors, but the PR engine is already behind him, constantly insisting that his injury was the main factor that derailed Oakland last year. You can be sure that if Oakland has a huge year, approaching 100 wins, the writers will want to give someone credit.

Overrated- Paul Konerko- He performed at the peak of his ability last year and was not in the race. Chicago will regress a little, and Konerko will lose some of his dap.

NL MVP
Smart money- Albert Pujols- And it isn’t even close. Unless Barry Bonds finds some new drug that can keep him healthy for 135 games, nobody in the league has the ability to even come close to Pujols. His other good competition, like Jason Bay and Miguel Cabrera, is stuck on uncompetitive teams that will suppress their counting stats and prevent writers from discussing their uncanny ability to lead. The Cardinals are not what they were last year, but they are certainly the class of the Central and probably the whole National League, so Pujols is in a strong position to claim Bonds’ mantle as undisputed heavyweight champion of the MLB. If Ortiz and Pujols are considered the ambassadors for the game, I think it is in great hands.

Dark horse- David Wright- I am increasingly coming to believe that the Mets are vastly overrated (Gasp! A New York sports team with undeserved hype?). Batting Reyes and Loduca 1-2 may not directly kill the lineup, but it reflects Willie Randoph’s misevaluation of offensive ability and they have serious pitching issues in terms of rotational depth and bullpen quality. Still, they will prey on Washington and Florida to help them reach 85 wins and Wright will quickly become one of media’s and the public’s favorites.

Overrated- Andruw Jones- He has yet to have an MVP caliber season if anything but HR count. Rick Sutcliffe said he saves 54 runs a year on defense (one every three games), so maybe I ought to rethink this one.

AL Cy Young
Smart money- Roy Halladay- I hate to pick against my favorite player on my favorite team, but I fear that the same problems that kept Santana out of the top spot last year will come back again. The Twins do not have as good an offense as Toronto (although it is not such an enormous deficit) and Halladay was better than Santana last year when he wasn’t getting hit by comebackers. If Toronto has a disappointing season, which is not terribly unlikely, I think Santana is a good 1-a, but the overall context tells me that Halladay’s health, hype and talent will converge this year.

Dark horse- Rich Harden- Again, if Oakland has a big year, it means their stars stayed healthy. If their stars stay healthy, it means they probably produced at a high level. King Felix is another dark horse, but he’s so dark it doesn’t even show up.

Overrated- Josh Beckett- He has had lots of good 2 or 3 starter seasons minus durability. What makes people think that moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park will reverse either of these trends?

NL Cy Young
Smart money- Jake Peavy- I heard Peavy give an interview on Baseball Tonight recently and he did his best Nuke LaLoosh impression, trotting out every cliché imaginable, babbling through difficult questions, contradicting himself and generally making me rethink whether I should like him. Maybe it does not take great brains to be a great starting pitcher, and Peavy can attest to that. He has a good stadium for a righty starter, a clean bill of health, an offense that won’t kill him, an improved defense behind him (Cameron, Castilla) and enough stuff to not lean on those guys too much.

Dark horse- Pedro Martinez- He may be the most famous pitcher in baseball, but very few seem to think he has a star caliber season left in his arm. Somebody should have told Omar Minaya that before he guaranteed the 12th year of his contract. Overall, I do not expect Pedro’s toe to hold up, but if it does and he tallies about 18 of 90 wins for the Mets, he’s going to get a lot of press.

Overrated- Billy Wagner, Eric Gagne- If there is a closer who has a shot at breaking through for a Gagne in 2004 type season, it is Brad Lidge. Gagne’s not totally healthy (his velocity is down 5-8 mph, supposedly) and even if he approximates his Cy Young season the writers are going to say that he already got his. Whoever thinks Wagner has it in him to have that sort of season is delusional- he breaks down every year and doesn’t have nearly that much left in the tank.

AL ROY
Smart money- Kenji Johjima- The reason for having a “smart money” category for ROY candidates is to separate the sexy picks from the boring ones with several years of high level pro experience. He projects to a .292/.354/.434 line, which should be more than good enough for a rookie catcher to win the award.

Dark horse- Jason Kubel- Everybody in baseball knows about Kubel due to his hot introduction in 2004 and ensuing gruesome injury. If he can tally a large number of ABs this year, his skill set caters to writers who like BA, so Kubel could play himself into the discussion.

Overrated- Francisco Liriano- Unless they trade Kyle Lohse very early on and give Liriano a starting job, he’s not going to get there by pitching in middle relief.

NL ROY
Smart money- Prince Fielder- There are lots of names that enter into this conversation, as Ryan Zimmerman, Jeremy Hermida and Matt Cain all have impressive credentials and strong holds on their jobs. I pick Fielder because he has sexier homerun totals and plays for a team that everyone is bound to love. Two potential drawbacks: Fielder’s body type make me worried about injuries despite a clean history so far and he may remind voters too much of Ryan Howard and they may want to change it up a bit.

Dark horse- Josh Barfield- If writers don’t hold a grudge against his surly dad, the Padres keystone new keystone man could parlay a great spring into a well rounded line and some hardware.

Overrated- I do not think Hermida has enough around him to have a great season. Maybe voters will feel sorry for him, but that’s not really much of a reason for optimism.

Manager of the Year
AL: Ken Macha
NL: Grady Little