Pack it in, Meat

They say 40-45 games give an indication of a team's true ability. Conditions will change from mid-May to the end of September, but if there is one glaring hole, it will be obvious by this point in the season. Thirty-one games for the Twins have served as a pretty good confirmation of many pre-season predictions: from Batista's suckitude to Castro's predictable trek toward replacement level. Patrick Reusse hit the nail on the head over the weekend when he started talking about shipping players out of town while they still have something to offer the team, but a knee-jerk is never the best solution and engulfing the team in a fire sale (forgive the mixed metaphor) hurts the chances of a successful 2008-2010. In other words, rebuilding is necessary, but a full scale dismantling would be a mistake.

Consider some recent examples of how teams have gone about rebuilding. One avenue is to trade off every last bit of talent, a la Florida or even Cleveland. This strategy has an adverse affect on the fan base, forcing everyone to question the dedication of ownership to winning. As long as Pohlad is in town, the Twins' higher-ups are already walking a PR tightrope, so it would be a mistake to alienate the entire Twinkie nation while they push for a new ball park. Furthermore, I think such an all-out reorganization would be unnecessary since the Twins have building blocks in place to contend with a relatively small influx of new, young, and cheap talent. Now consider the Oakland A's, who did not miss a beat after trading away Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson while letting other stars trickle out of town for draft picks. Several factors differentiate the Twins from the A's, most notably that Oakland had a better team besides its top-tier stars then than the Twins do now. Also, Billy Beane prefers stockpiling draft picks whereas Terry Ryan has a history of mining other teams' farm systems for unpolished diamonds. The Twins may also want to avoid doling out big draft bonuses to teenagers in the draft when they already have two of the game's most valuable commodities in or near their primes. Fundamentally, the Twins have to build around Santana and Mauer, and pushing to get another wave of young contributors through trades is a realistic way to get back into contention in about two years. This situation is more optimistic than the one in the mid-90s because they have a better founded farm system with legitimate stars around whom they can build, not Scott Stahoviak, David McCarty and Rich Becker. Here are five suggestions- in descending order of importance and urgency- for making changes before the end of the year that would open up the possibility of contending in the future.

1. Stop playing Juan Castro and Tony Batista: This proposition should have been intuitive before the season no matter what they wanted to do. Luis Rodriguez, Terry Tiffee and Michael Cuddyer are all flawed but superior options at third base who are more productive right now offensively and defensively and who are not as expensive as Batista. I have ranted repeatedly about Bartlett's desireability relative to Castro, and nothing- including concerns about his vocal audibility- has happened this season to change my mind. The worst that could happen in either instance of eating the veteran's salary is discovering that the younger players are not ready or never will be, which still brings them a step closer to contention than they are right now. Matt Moses is probably the long term answer at third, so they might as well stop hurting themselves and overpaying to do it in the meantime.

2. Trade Kyle Lohse: Some of the surprising early season contenders have been hitting rich teams with a serious need for pitching, which is a big benefit to the Twins if this is the year they start auctioning off their pitchers to the highest bidder. Cincinatti, Colorado, and Texas all seriously need innings eaters right now if they want to stay in contention, and even with his putrid start, Lohse would be an attractive option if any of them want to make a run at the division. We also know that Texas had an interest in Lohse last year before the deadline and that the New York Mets are about to enter the bidding for more pitchers since they traded away all of their depth before the season and now face losing Victor Zambrano for all of 2006. I will not speculate as to which prospects the Twins ought to pursue, as Terry Ryan and his staff know the depths of these systems better than I do (Justin Jones? Francisco Liriano? Not guys I would have picked when Ryan did). Suffice to say that position players are more of a need than pitchers right now with that positional depth in the system.

3. Trade Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart, try to trade Rondell White: Time to slow the role of the soul patrol. For several years, I liked the idea of playing an all African-American outfield in an era where African-American players occupy less and less of the MLB population, but I would never advocate sacrficing the ability to compete to do so. Hunter's reputation makes him worth far more on the trade market than his on-field ability could ever do by itself, and Stewart will benefit from an early resurgence. White had trouble finding a home as a DH-only before the season began, and finding someone to assume that salary now could be even more difficult, but worth a try since he is not going to contribute anything to the next contending Twins team. Altogether, I would not be surprised if Stewart yielded a B prospect and Hunter returned an A prospect and some filler (which is Terry Ryan codespeak for sleeeeeeper). I guess this scenario means that Ford assumes CF for the rest of the year, with Cuddyer in RF and Kubel in LF most of the time, but the longer term has to include Alex Romero and exclude Lew Ford. Center remains a question, as none of the current crop of top prospects has that kind of a glove and Denard Span has done nothing to indicate he is a major league caliber prospect. Anyway, better to address the problem now than to pretend it will go away, then end up with Span hitting .260/.310/.360 in two years or else signing someone like the shell of what was once Gary Matthews Jr.

4. Try to trade Brad Radke: Sure, he can invoke a no-trade clause, but Radke has accomplished enough in his career that he could be worth more than anyone else on this list if shopped at the deadline. Starting pitching is always at a premium, and we already know that the Yankees and Red Sox both wanted to sign Radke two years ago. Reusse dismissed this possibility because he thought Radke would want to leave as a Twin, but the opportunity to make a run deep into the playoffs has to be an intriguing one, and keeping him around for the rest of this season will not make the team much better, and has a great cost (financially and in terms of the opportunity cost of losing out on a top prospect).

5. Be patient: Winning is addictive, but we have to remember that a smaller-market team does not usually contend every single year. Tom Kelly was notoriously quick to condemn certain players, which often came back to hurt them, like when Todd Walker and David Ortiz found much greater success with the Red Sox while the Twins were competitive, but missing a couple of bats (at DH and 2B no less). Let Bartlett struggle. Give Moses and Romero time to become the hitters they can become at AAA. Don't worry so much about Cuddyer's range and let him have time to become something other than a utility man. Keep Morneau in the lineup against lefties to let him learn how to hit them. I am sure we all remember the general malaise and melancholy that came with last season's fade from contention, but having a plan for the future that includes Santana and Mauer is infinitely more exciting and hopeful than staying in this holding pattern of crappy veterans and imaginary clubhouse moxie. Oh, and they should fire Ron Gardenhire, too.