Dial Down the Center

In one of my Spring Training articles, I mentioned the different perspective I took in approaching a game as intimate as an early March match-up. As close to the action as I felt in the cozy Arizona ballparks, my inability to actually play baseball prevents me from getting much closer than the first few rows. Meanwhile, a variety of factors has conspired to get me feeling even closer to basketball, and it has changed my outlook on the NBA and the sport in general. For one, the NCAA tournament left me feeling unfulfilled when my Hoyas bowed out after giving eventual champion Florida their toughest test of the tournament. Next, the NBA playoffs caught my attention even though Kevin Garnett could not pull his band of rejects to a winning record, as Kobe, Lebron, Shaq and the Pistons have provided ample points of interest. Most importantly, my computer crashed a couple of weeks ago, robbing me of my primary distraction while my final college class ended nearly contemporaneously. The newfound free time has been spent on the basketball court, where some former coworkers at the gym have introduced me to some pretty exceptional players, like the NBA’s Kevin Braswell (he has not technically played in an NBA game, but he has signed an NBA contract, played in preseason NBA games with the Heat, and averaged almost 20 PPG in the top European leagues, so he’s legit). Playing head to head with guys on his level has made me realize just how much the NBA shares in common with a really good pickup game. Some people say the same thing in a derogatory tone, but I mean it in the most complementary sense, since I think it gives the individual players a lot more credit for just how good they are. There is no supernatural quality that distinguishes the NBA or other professional leagues from a group of people who just love to play the game. That said, I believe that having teammates who complement one another means much more in basketball than it does in baseball, and our understanding of basketball statistics should take that interplay into consideration. Sure, certain stats like shooting percentage reflect the reality which they describe, but others are so dependent on game states and interactions within the team that they do not tell the whole story. Watch the Cavaliers’ next game closely and count how many rebounds Lebron grabs just because he is the top dog and his teammates let him go after a ball that any one of them could have had. That doesn’t make him a worse player, but it shows that his statistics are not necessarily reflective of the role he plays in the game. Defense is even more vague, as stats like steals and blocks cannot begin to measure the value of having someone like Ron Artest making the other team’s best wing obsolete. I am not the first to criticize statistics in basketball, and I think that there is some value in them, especially when they are used to describe an entire team’s performance, but I think an over-reliance on certain stats is misleading. By the way, the first time I guarded Braswell, I matched his scoring output as we scored two baskets apiece in a game to eleven (although he was way off and one of mine was a fast break layup).

But my story is neither here nor there, so before I lose you entirely, I’ll do a quick rundown of some recent happenings in the AL Central.

Twins: Ok, so the pitching has been worse than anticipated. Nonetheless, the offense has been pretty much on line, and the team is not scoring nearly enough runs to contend with Cleveland and Chicago no matte how much better the pitching gets. Rondell White has already cost the team almost two full wins with his bat (as a DH no less) with his -17.5 VORP. Sierra, Batista, Kubel, Hunter, Ford, Castro, and Morneau all join him below replacement level, leaving Rodriguez, Redmond and Punto as the 4th, 5th, and 7th best offensive players so far. Other than Punto’s relative success (a 0.0 VORP!), is there anything here that we should find surprising? Hunter and White are the only ones far below their previously established level of performance, and Stewart’s improbable return to 2003 form nearly offsets Hunter’s poor offense. In other words, Hunter has been slightly worse than what we expected from Stewart and Stewart has been slightly better than what we expected from Hunter. The offense was built on the notion that Mauer and Morneau would capture their best possible road to superstardom, and in a hurry. Instead, Moreanu looks like he did last year and Mauer’s power is more of a trickle than a fire hose. Yes, the record looks bad, but do not be surprised if it stays that way if the team keeps giving Sierra, Castro, and Batista regular playing time.

White Sox: Maybe nobody noticed it, but the Sox picked up Jeff Nelson and shipped him to their extended spring training camp earlier this week. I’ll grant that the probability of getting anything out of Nelson is low, but the team assumes virtually no risk if he washes out. The move exemplifies the change that made Kenny Williams a good GM: he went from taking big risks with high rewards (Carl Everett- first time, Roberto Alomar) to taking many small risks that could collectively pan out into one or two diamonds in the rough, like Bobby Jenks. The Red Sox successfully employed this strategy in nabbing David Ortiz, then using him with Jeremy Giambi, Kevin Millar and David McCarty until Ortiz definitively won the battle. I hate to acknowledge that the Sox are now whipping the Twins administratively as well as on the field, but I can only run from the truth for so long.

Indians: C.C. Sabathia is back for now, but he still looks like a muscle strain waiting to happen. I’m not such a stickler for body type on a professional athlete, but Sabathia is one of those instances where the injury is so easily traceable to his lifestyle. Remember when David Wells hurt himself on a barstool? C.C.’s problems with strained muscles rank right up there with Boomer’s on the “Well, no shit” scale. Cleveland’s front office is famous for their loyalty and their interest in guys with good personalities, but for their sake I hope they don’t have too much Midwestern courtesy to at least tell their best pitcher to learn to touch his toes.

As I mentioned earlier, I am currently sans computer, so updates will be sporadic until that situation is resolved.